C3S Energy: an operational service to deliver power demand and supply for different electricity sources, time and spatial scales over Europe

The EU Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S) has produced an operational climate service, called C3S Energy, designed to enable the energy industry and policy makers to assess the impacts of climate variability and climate change on the energy sector in Europe. The C3S Energy service covers different time horizons, for the past forty years and the future. It provides time series of electricity demand and supply from wind, solar photovoltaic and hydro power, and can be used for recent trends analysis, seasonal outlooks or the assessment of climate change impacts on energy mixes in the long-term.This paper introduces this dataset, with a focus on the design and validation of the energy conversion models, based on ENTSO-E energy data and the ERA5 climate reanalysis. Flexibility and coherence across all countries have been privileged upon models’ accuracy. However, the comparison with ENTSO-E data shows that the models provide plausible energy indicators and, in particular, allow to compare climate variability effects on power demand and generation in an homogenous approach all over Europe.

Download Full-text

5. Climate change impacts

10.1093/actrade/9780198867869.003.0005 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 64-89

Author(s):

Mark Maslin

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Health Policy ◽

Ocean Acidification ◽

Human Health ◽

Extreme Events ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Climate Science ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Shifting Baseline ◽

Dangerous Climate Change

‘Climate change impacts’ assesses the potential impacts of climate change and how these alter in scale and intensity with increasing warming by breaking down the potential impacts into sectors: extreme heat and droughts, storms and floods, agriculture, ocean acidification, biodiversity, and human health. Policy-makers should identify what dangerous climate change is. We need a realistic target concerning the degree of climate change with which we can cope. Fortunately, the societal coping range is flexible and can change with the shifting baseline and the more frequent extreme events—as long as there is strong climate science to provide clear guidance on what sort of changes are going to occur.

Download Full-text

A gendered approach to understanding climate change impacts: lessons from a coastal region of Bangladesh.

Gender, climate change and livelihoods: vulnerabilities and adaptations ◽

10.1079/9781789247053.0002 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 11-25

Author(s):

S. Momtaz ◽

M. Asaduzzaman ◽

Z. Kabir

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Focus Group ◽

Adaptive Capacity ◽

Coastal Region ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Household Surveys ◽

Group Discussions ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Key Informant ◽

The Face

Abstract The purpose of this chapter is to understand the vulnerability of women's livelihoods to climate change impacts in Bangladesh. Data were collected through a survey of 150 randomly selected women from a sample of households. Focus group discussions, key informant interviews, participant observations, and a transect walk, provided supporting information to substantiate the household surveys. The chapter first outlines the theoretical foundation on which the research is based. This is followed by examining women's vulnerability in the study area. The chapter then describes women's coping strategies in the face of climate change-induced disasters. The chapter further explores women's adaptive capacity through the examination of their access to various services. It ends with a set of recommendations for policy makers in order to improve the situation of women's vulnerability.

Download Full-text

Global contribution of climate variability and trends to maize yield change in observations and crop models during 1980-2010

10.5194/egusphere-egu2020-21042 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Xiaomeng Yin ◽

Guoyong Leng

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Statistical Model ◽

Yield Loss ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Maize Yield ◽

Climate Impacts ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Crop Models ◽

Process Based Models

<p>Understanding historical crop yield response to climate change is critical for projecting future climate change impacts on yields. Previous assessments rely on statistical or process-based crop models, but each has its own strength and weakness. A comprehensive comparison of climate impacts on yield between the two approaches allows for evaluation of the uncertainties in future yield projections. Here we assess the impacts of historical climate change on global maize yield for the period 1980-2010 using both statistical and process-based models, with a focus on comparing the performances between the two approaches. To allow for reasonable comparability, we develop an emulator which shares the same structure with the statistical model to mimic the behaviors of process-based models. Results show that the simulated maize yields in most of the top 10 producing countries are overestimated, when compared against FAO observations. Overall, GEPIC, EPIC-IIASA and EPIC-Boku show better performance than other models in reproducing the observed yield variations at the global scale. Climate variability explains 42.00% of yield variations in observation-based statistical model, while large discrepancy is found in crop models. Regionally, climate variability is associated with 55.0% and 52.20% of yield variations in Argentina and USA, respectively. Further analysis based on process-based model emulator shows that climate change has led to a yield loss by 1.51%-3.80% during the period 1980-1990, consistent with the estimations using the observation-based statistical model. As for the period 1991-2000, however, the observed yield loss induced by climate change is only captured by GEPIC and pDSSAT. In contrast to the observed positive climate impact for the period 2001-2010, CLM-Crop, EPIC-IIASA, GEPIC, pAPSIM, pDSSAT and PEGASUS simulated negative climate effects. The results point to the discrepancy between process-based and statistical crop models in simulating climate change impacts on maize yield, which depends on not only the regions, but also the specific time period. We suggest that more targeted efforts are required for constraining the uncertainties of both statistical and process-based crop models for future yield predictions.&#160;</p>

Download Full-text

Threats of Global Climate Change: A Review of the Driver to Multiples Environmental Degradation, Human Right Injustice and Unsustainable Development

Asian Journal of Environment & Ecology ◽

10.9734/ajee/2018/v8i430082 ◽

2019 ◽

pp. 1-13

Author(s):

Ayuk Macbert Nkongho ◽

Cherabe Nchomba George

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Global Warming ◽

Global Climate ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Human Right ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Conservation Actions ◽

The Face ◽

Combat Climate Change ◽

Management And Conservation

As we embrace the new millennium of the 21st century, the threats to the environment are unprecedented. However, none of these threats is as immense as global warming. Environmental management and conservation actions are floundering in the face of climate change as the latter poses a complex, bewildering array of impacts to the environment particularly on the state, individuals, communities, and cultures, as well as on natural resources (land, water, and air). Because of this, there is the need for the protection and promotion of climate change justice. The problem facing policy-makers and environmental stakeholders is how to plan within the context of global warming and to implement strategies for increasing the resistance and resilience of the environment to climate change impacts. This is because climate change is an issue of reality and is seemingly difficult to understand and to be plan for. It is, therefore, vital that a justice-centered approach is adopted to combat climate change. This article, therefore, seeks to analyze the causes and impacts of climate change, designs strategies and recommendations which is hope to address the adverse effects of climate change on human rights and the environment.

Download Full-text

Historical Rainfall and Evapotranspiration Changes over Mpologoma Catchment in Uganda

Advances in Meteorology ◽

10.1155/2020/8870935 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 2020 ◽

pp. 1-19

Author(s):

Ambrose Mubialiwo ◽

Charles Onyutha ◽

Adane Abebe

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Water Balance ◽

Climate Variability ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Positive Trend ◽

Careful Planning ◽

Future Studies ◽

Nonparametric Approach ◽

The Difference

Changes in the long-term (1948–2016) rainfall and evapotranspiration over Mpologoma catchment were analysed using gridded (0.25° × 0.25°) Princeton Global Forcing data. Trend and variability were assessed using a nonparametric approach based on the cumulative sum of the difference between exceedance and nonexceedance counts of data. Annual and March-May (MAM) rainfall displayed a positive trend (p<0.05), whereas October-December (OND) and June-September rainfall exhibited negative trends with p>0.05 and p<0.05, respectively. Positive subtrends in rainfall occurred in the 1950s and from the mid-2000s till 2016; however, negative subtrends existed between 1960 till around 2005. Seasonal evapotranspiration exhibited a positive trend (p>0.05). For the entire period (1948–2016), there was no negative subtrend in the OND and MAM evapotranspiration. Rainfall and evapotranspiration trends and oscillatory variation in subtrends over multidecadal time scales indicate the need for careful planning of predictive adaptation to the impacts of climate variability on environmental applications which depend on water balance in the Mpologoma catchment. It is recommended that future studies quantify possible contributions of human factors on the variability of rainfall and evapotranspiration. Furthermore, climate change impacts on rainfall and evapotranspiration across the study area should be investigated.

Download Full-text

Contemporary perspectives on the niche that can improve models of species range shifts under climate change

Biology Letters ◽

10.1098/rsbl.2008.0181 ◽

2008 ◽

Vol 4 (5) ◽

pp. 573-576 ◽

Cited By ~ 82

Author(s):

Xavier Morin ◽

Martin J Lechowicz

Keyword(s):

Climate Change ◽

Species Distribution ◽

Spatial Scales ◽

Climate Change Impacts ◽

Community Diversity ◽

Vegetation Types ◽

Heterogeneous Landscapes ◽

Niche Concept ◽

Spatio Temporal ◽

Effective Models

Pioneering efforts to predict shifts in species distribution under climate change used simple models based on the correlation between contemporary environmental factors and distributions. These models make predictions at coarse spatial scales and assume the constancy of present correlations between environment and distribution. Adaptive management of climate change impacts requires models that can make more robust predictions at finer spatio-temporal scales by accounting for processes that actually affect species distribution on heterogeneous landscapes. Mechanistic models of the distribution of both species and vegetation types have begun to emerge to meet these needs. We review these developments and highlight how recent advances in our understanding of relationships among the niche concept, species diversity and community assembly point the way towards more effective models for the impacts of global change on species distribution and community diversity.

Download Full-text