scholarly journals Climate change impact on Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade

2011 ◽  
Vol 7 (5) ◽  
pp. 702-705 ◽  
Author(s):  
C. Luczak ◽  
G. Beaugrand ◽  
M. Jaffré ◽  
S. Lenoir
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Trophic Cascade ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Significant Shift ◽  
Fish Prey ◽  
Sea Temperature ◽  
Predator Species ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Regional Index

A recent study showed that a critically endangered migratory predator species, the Balearic shearwater Puffinus mauretanicus , rapidly expanded northwards in northeast Atlantic waters after the mid-1990s. As a significant positive correlation was found between the long-term changes in the abundance of this seabird and sea temperature around the British Isles, it was hypothesized that the link between the biogeographic shift and temperature occurred through the food web. Here, we test this conjecture and reveal concomitant changes in a regional index of sea temperature, plankton (total calanoid copepod), fish prey (anchovy and sardine) and the Balearic shearwater for the period 1980–2003. All three trophic levels exhibit a significant shift detected between 1994 and 1996. Our findings therefore support the assertion of both a direct and an indirect effect of climate change on the spatial distribution of post-breeding Balearic shearwater through a trophic cascade.

scholarly journals What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

2011 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 7621-7655 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Stoll ◽  
H. J. Hendricks Franssen ◽  
R. Barthel ◽  
W. Kinzelbach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested.

Predator–prey interactions and climate change

2019 ◽  
pp. 199-220 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vincent Bretagnolle ◽  
Julien Terraube
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Experimental Studies ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Generalist Predators ◽  
Top Down ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Key Topics ◽  
Available Information

Climate change is likely to impact all trophic levels, although the response of communities and ecosystems to it has only recently received considerable attention. Further, it is expected to affect the magnitude of species interactions themselves. In this chapter, we summarize why and how climate change could affect predator–prey interactions, then review the literature about its impact on predator–prey relationships in birds, and provide prospects for future studies. Expected effects on prey or predators may include changes in the following: distribution, phenology, population density, behaviour, morphology, or physiology. We review the currently available information concerning particular key topics: top-down versus bottom-up control, specialist versus generalist predators, functional versus numerical responses, trophic cascades and regime shifts, and lastly adaptation and selection. Finally, we focus our review on two well-studied bird examples: seabirds and raptors. Key future topics include long-term studies, modelling and experimental studies, evolutionary questions, and conservation issues.

scholarly journals Trait-mediated trophic cascade creates enemy-free space for nesting hummingbirds

2015 ◽  
Vol 1 (8) ◽  
pp. e1500310 ◽  
Author(s):  
Harold F. Greeney ◽  
M. Rocio Meneses ◽  
Chris E. Hamilton ◽  
Eli Lichter-Marck ◽  
R. William Mannan ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Habitat Fragmentation ◽  
Breeding Success ◽  
Indirect Effects ◽  
Trophic Cascade ◽  
Terrestrial Ecosystems ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Ecological Communities ◽  
Top Predators ◽  
Enemy Free Space

The indirect effects of predators on nonadjacent trophic levels, mediated through traits of intervening species, are collectively known as trait-mediated trophic cascades. Although birds are important predators in terrestrial ecosystems, clear examples of trait-mediated indirect effects involving bird predators have almost never been documented. Such indirect effects are important for structuring ecological communities and are likely to be negatively impacted by habitat fragmentation, climate change, and other factors that reduce abundance of top predators. We demonstrate that hummingbirds in Arizona realize increased breeding success when nesting in association with hawks. An enemy-free nesting space is created when jays, an important source of mortality for hummingbird nests, alter their foraging behavior in the presence of their hawk predators.

scholarly journals Agriculture Adaptation to Consequences of Global Climate Changes

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (2) ◽  
pp. 13-20
Author(s):  
D. G. Galkin
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Agricultural Production ◽  
Climate Changes ◽  
Greenhouse Gas Emission ◽  
Traditional Approach ◽  
Global Climate ◽  
Global Climate Changes ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Agriculture Development

The goal of the article is to work out recommendations aimed at providing sustainability of agriculture development on the level of national economy in conditions of changing climate. The agriculture development within the frames of traditional approach can be studied in two aspects: as a sector subjected to the global climate change impact; as a sector promoting climate change due to greenhouse gas emission. The authors showed that in regard to present trends scientific recommendations aimed at agriculture adaptation to climate changes are the most significant for Russia. On the basis of provided concepts they identified key lines in the said adaptation: to develop innovation connected with adaptation to consequences of climate changes; to upgrade the system of agro-insurance; to use methods of organic food production; to monitor and appraise adaptation of agriculture to climate changes; to introduce strategic planning of sustainable development and location of agricultural production. These lines should be realized on the basis of integrity, strategic orientation and scientific support of agricultural production. These lines can stabilize the level of key parameters of the sector in the long-term perspective.

scholarly journals Long-term monitoring at multiple trophic levels suggests heterogeneity in responses to climate change in the Canadian Arctic tundra

2013 ◽  
Vol 368 (1624) ◽  
pp. 20120482 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gilles Gauthier ◽  
Joël Bêty ◽  
Marie-Christine Cadieux ◽  
Pierre Legagneux ◽  
Madeleine Doiron ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Primary Production ◽  
Climate Warming ◽  
Temporal Trends ◽  
Canadian Arctic ◽  
Trophic Levels ◽  
Food Plants ◽  
Laying Date ◽  
Snow Melt

Arctic wildlife is often presented as being highly at risk in the face of current climate warming. We use the long-term (up to 24 years) monitoring records available on Bylot Island in the Canadian Arctic to examine temporal trends in population attributes of several terrestrial vertebrates and in primary production. Despite a warming trend (e.g. cumulative annual thawing degree-days increased by 37% and snow-melt date advanced by 4–7 days over a 23-year period), we found little evidence for changes in the phenology, abundance or productivity of several vertebrate species (snow goose, foxes, lemmings, avian predators and one passerine). Only primary production showed a response to warming (annual above-ground biomass of wetland graminoids increased by 123% during this period). We nonetheless found evidence for potential mismatches between herbivores and their food plants in response to warming as snow geese adjusted their laying date by only 3.8 days on average for a change in snow-melt of 10 days, half of the corresponding adjustment shown by the timing of plant growth (7.1 days). We discuss several reasons (duration of time series, large annual variability, amplitude of observed climate change, nonlinear dynamic or constraints imposed by various rate of warming with latitude in migrants) to explain the lack of response by herbivores and predators to climate warming at our study site. We also show how length and intensity of monitoring could affect our ability to detect temporal trends and provide recommendations for future monitoring.

scholarly journals What can we learn from long-term groundwater data to improve climate change impact studies?

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (12) ◽  
pp. 3861-3875 ◽  
Author(s):  
S. Stoll ◽  
H. J. Hendricks Franssen ◽  
R. Barthel ◽  
W. Kinzelbach
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Climate Models ◽  
Groundwater Resources ◽  
Groundwater Dynamics ◽  
Impact Studies ◽  
Change Impact

Abstract. Future risks for groundwater resources, due to global change are usually analyzed by driving hydrological models with the outputs of climate models. However, this model chain is subject to considerable uncertainties. Given the high uncertainties it is essential to identify the processes governing the groundwater dynamics, as these processes are likely to affect groundwater resources in the future, too. Information about the dominant mechanisms can be achieved by the analysis of long-term data, which are assumed to provide insight in the reaction of groundwater resources to changing conditions (weather, land use, water demand). Referring to this, a dataset of 30 long-term time series of precipitation dominated groundwater systems in northern Switzerland and southern Germany is collected. In order to receive additional information the analysis of the data is carried out together with hydrological model simulations. High spatio-temporal correlations, even over large distances could be detected and are assumed to be related to large-scale atmospheric circulation patterns. As a result it is suggested to prefer innovative weather-type-based downscaling methods to other stochastic downscaling approaches. In addition, with the help of a qualitative procedure to distinguish between meteorological and anthropogenic causes it was possible to identify processes which dominated the groundwater dynamics in the past. It could be shown that besides the meteorological conditions, land use changes, pumping activity and feedback mechanisms governed the groundwater dynamics. Based on these findings, recommendations to improve climate change impact studies are suggested.

Long-term climate change effects in the European offshore wind energy 

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Stefano Susini ◽  
Melisa Menendez
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Wind Speed ◽  
Wind Energy ◽  
Wind Power ◽  
Power Density ◽  
Climate Change Impact ◽  
Energy Production ◽  
Offshore Wind ◽  
Change Impact

<p>Climate change and offshore renewable energy sector are connected by a double nature link. Even though energy generation from clean marine sources is one of the strategies to reduce climate change impact within next decades, it is expected that large scale modification of circulation patterns will have in turn an impact on the spatial and temporal distribution of the wind fields. Under the WINDSURFER project of the ERA4CS initiative, we analyse the climate change impact on marine wind energy resource for the European offshore wind energy sector. Long-term changes in specific climate indicators are evaluated over the European marine domain (e.g. wind power density, extreme winds, operation hours) as well as local indicators (e.g. gross energy yield, capacity factor) at several relevant operating offshore wind farms.</p><p>Adopting an ensemble approach, we focus on the climate change greenhouse gases scenario RCP8.5 during the end of the century (2081-2100 period) and analyze the changes and uncertainty of the resulting multi-model from seven high resolution Regional Climate Models (RCM) realized within Euro-Cordex initiative (EUR-11, ~12.5km). ERA5 reanalysis and in-situ offshore measurements are the historical data used in present climate.</p><p>Results indicate a small decrease of wind energy production, testified by reduction of the climatological indicators of wind speed and wind power density, particularly in the NW part of the domain of study. The totality of the currently operating offshore windfarms is located in this area, where a decrease up to 20% in the annual energy production is expected by the end of the century, accompanied by a reduction of the operation hours between 5 and 8%. Exceptions are represented by Aegean and Baltic Sea, where these indicators are expected to slightly increase. Extreme storm winds however show a different spatial pattern of change. The wind speed associated to 50 years return period decreases within western Mediterranean Sea and Biscay Bay, while increases in the remaining part of the domain (up to 15% within Aegean and Black Sea). Finally, the estimated variations in wind direction are relevant on the Biscay Bay region.</p>

Assessment of long-term structural reliability considering climate change effects

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pietro Croce ◽  
Paolo Formichi ◽  
Filippo Landi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Reliability Index ◽  
Structural Reliability ◽  
Climate Change Impacts ◽  
Climate Change Effects ◽  
Structural Resistance ◽  
Change Impact ◽  
Available Information

<p>The assessment of climate change impacts is becoming increasingly relevant for many sciences and engineering disciplines. In this context, climate change may significantly affect the design of new structures and infrastructures as well as the long-term reliability of existing ones designed under the assumption of stationary climate.</p><p>A methodology for the assessment of climate change impact on long-term structural reliability is presented, based on the analysis of available information on past and future climate. The procedure relies on the factor of change approach and provide tools for the adaptation of climatic load maps and the evaluation of variations of failure probability and reliability index with time.</p><p>The proposed procedure will be illustrated for a relevant case study considering changes in climatic actions and different degradation conditions of structural resistance, which may also be affected by global warming.</p>

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