scholarly journals Explicit characterization of human population connectivity reveals long run persistence of interregional dengue shocks

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (168) ◽  
pp. 20200340 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lim Jue Tao ◽  
Borame Sue Lee Dickens ◽  
Mao Yinan ◽  
Chae Woon Kwak ◽  
Ng Lee Ching ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climatic Factors ◽  
Population Connectivity ◽  
Daily Movement ◽  
Movement Rates ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Inclusion Probabilities ◽  
Dengue Transmission ◽  
Exogenous Factors

Dengue is hyper-endemic in Singapore and Malaysia, and daily movement rates between the two countries are consistently high, allowing inference on the role of local transmission and imported dengue cases. This paper describes a custom built sparse space–time autoregressive (SSTAR) model to infer and forecast contemporaneous and future dengue transmission patterns in Singapore and 16 administrative regions within Malaysia, taking into account connectivity and geographical adjacency between regions as well as climatic factors. A modification to forecast impulse responses is developed for the case of the SSTAR and is used to simulate changes in dengue transmission in neighbouring regions following a disturbance. The results indicate that there are long-term responses of the neighbouring regions to shocks in a region. By computation of variable inclusion probabilities, we found that each region’s own past counts were important to describe contemporaneous case counts. In 15 out of 16 regions, other regions case counts were important to describe contemporaneous case counts even after controlling for past local dengue transmissions and exogenous factors. Leave-one-region-out analysis using SSTAR showed that dengue transmission counts could be reconstructed for 13 of 16 regions' counts using external dengue transmissions compared to a climate only approach. Lastly, one to four week ahead forecasts from the SSTAR were more accurate than baseline univariate autoregressions.

scholarly journals Shades between Black and Green Investment: Balance or Imbalance?

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (9) ◽  
pp. 5024
Author(s):  
 Vítor Manuel de Sousa Gabriel ◽  
María Mar Miralles-Quirós ◽  
José Luis Miralles-Quirós
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factor ◽  
Oil Prices ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Environmental Indices ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Green Investment ◽  
Bounds Test

This paper analyses the links established between environmental indices and the oil price adopting a double perspective, long-term and short-term relationships. For that purpose, we employ the Bounds Test and bivariate conditional heteroscedasticity models. In the long run, the pattern of behaviour of environmental indices clearly differed from that of the oil prices, and it was not possible to identify cointegrating vectors. In the short-term, it was possible to conclude that, in contemporaneous terms, the variables studied tended to follow similar paths. When the lag of the oil price variable was considered, the impacts produced on the stock market sectors were partially of a negative nature, which allows us to suppose that this variable plays the role of a risk factor for environmental investment.

scholarly journals Between communism and capitalism: long-term inequality in Poland, 1892–2015

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paweł Bukowski ◽  
Filip Novokmet
Keyword(s):  
Household Survey ◽  
National Accounts ◽  
Capital Income ◽  
Sharp Rise ◽  
Long Run ◽  
History Of ◽  
Low Levels ◽  
Distribution Of Income

AbstractWe construct the first consistent series on the long-term distribution of income in Poland by combining tax, household survey and national accounts data. We document a U-shaped evolution of inequalities from the end of the nineteenth century until today: (1) inequality was high before WWII; (2) abruptly fell after the introduction of communism in 1947 and stagnated at low levels during the whole communist period; (3) experienced a sharp rise with the return to capitalism in 1989. We find that official survey-based measures strongly under-estimate the rise in inequality since 1989. Our results highlight the prominent role of capital income in driving the U-shaped evolution of top income shares. The unique inequality history of Poland speaks to the central role of institutions and policies in shaping inequality in the long run.

Neuroprotective Role of Nutritional Supplementation in Athletes

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 ◽  
Author(s):  
Supriya Mishra ◽  
Vikram Jeet Singh ◽  
Pooja A Chawla ◽  
Viney Chawla
Keyword(s):  
Neurodegenerative Disorders ◽  
Brain Injuries ◽  
Recovery Process ◽  
Traumatic Brain Injuries ◽  
Omega 3 ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Pathological Mechanism ◽  
Injury Recovery

Background: Neurodegenerative disorders belong to different classes of progressive/chronic conditions that affect the peripheral/central nervous system. It has been shown through studies that athletes who play sports involving repeated head trauma and sub-concussive impacts are more likely to experience neurological impairments and neurodegenerative disorders in the long run. Aims: The aim of the current narrative review article is to provide a summary of various nutraceuticals that offer promise in the prevention or management of sports-related injuries, especially concussions and mild traumatic brain injuries. Methods: This article reviews the various potential nutraceutical agents and their possible mechanisms in providing a beneficial effect in the injury recovery process. A thorough survey of the literature was carried out in the relevant databases to identify studies published in recent years. In the present article, we have also highlighted the major neurological disorders along with the associated nutraceutical(s) therapy in the management of disorders. Results: The exact pathological mechanism behind neurodegenerative conditions is complex as well as idiopathic. However, mitochondrial dysfunction, oxidative stress as well as intracellular calcium overload are some common reasons responsible for the progression of these neurodegenerative disorders. Owing to the multifaceted effects of nutraceuticals (complementary medicine), these supplements have gained importance as neuroprotective. These diet-based approaches inhibit different pathways in a physiological manner without eliciting adverse effects. Food habits and lifestyle of an individual also affect neurodegeneration. Conclusion: Studies have shown nutraceuticals (such as resveratrol, omega-3-fatty acids) to be efficacious in terms of their neuroprotection against several neurodegenerative disorders and to be used as supplements in the management of traumatic brain injuries. Protection prior to injuries is needed since concussions or sub-concussive impacts may trigger several pathophysiological responses or cascades that can lead to long-term complications associated with CNS. Thus, the use of nutraceuticals as prophylactic treatment for neurological interventions has been proposed.

IMMUNOLOGIC AND BIOCHEMICAL STUDIES IN INFANTS AND CHILDREN WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO RHEUMATIC FEVER

PEDIATRICS ◽  
1948 ◽  
Vol 2 (3) ◽  
pp. 239-241
Author(s):  
MAY G. WILSON
Keyword(s):  
Rheumatic Fever ◽  
Epidemiologic Studies ◽  
Direct Result ◽  
Endogenous Factors ◽  
Number Of Children ◽  
Exogenous Agents ◽  
Exogenous Factors ◽  
Long Term Observation

CERTAIN individuals are more susceptible than others to many conditions. In recent years it has become clear that in rheumatic fever, susceptibility of the host is an important factor in the pathogenesis of the disease. It was concluded from genetic and epidemiologic studies that susceptibility to rheumatic fever is on a genetic and age basis. Although the susceptible child cannot be identified at the present time, the number of children expected to be susceptible in a group of families of known genotype may be determined on the basis of recessive inheritance. It may, therefore, be postulated that distributed among a group of families of known hereditary background are children who are susceptible and insusceptible to the acquisition of rheumatic fever. As a direct result of long term observation of rheumatic families over a period of 30 years, a second generation of children of known hereditary background is available to us for exploratory studies. This group includes children from families in which one or both parents are rheumatic, or in which neither parent is rheumatic. In this group there are normal (insusceptible), susceptible and rheumatic children. The nature of the hereditable factors which may be responsible for susceptibility is obscure. Recent advances in biochemical genetics have provocative implications in rheumatic fever. Of particular interest are the observations which demonstrate that such biochemical reactions as enzyme and protein specificities are gene determined. As a working hypothesis it seemed reasonable to postulate that in a susceptible child, abnormal physiologic, chemical, immunologic or hormonal responses might be found. Differences might then be observed in certain reactions between the normal group and a group containing a high proportion of genetically susceptible children. This approach does not conflict with the concept that exogenous factors, irrespective of their nature, may also be operative. If the nature of the endogenous factors were known, the role of possible exogenous agents would be clarified.

Does slum formalisation without title provision stimulate housing improvement? A case of slum declaration in Pune, India

Urban Studies ◽  
2016 ◽  
Vol 54 (7) ◽  
pp. 1715-1735 ◽  
Author(s):  
Shohei Nakamura
Keyword(s):  
Land Tenure ◽  
Informal Settlements ◽  
Household Survey ◽  
Tenure Security ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Slum Upgrading ◽  
Housing Materials ◽  
Housing Investments

Though previous studies have examined how formalising land tenure affects housing improvements in informal settlements, the role of tenure security and its long-term influence remain unclear. In response, this paper quantitatively examines the extent to which formalising land tenure by way of slum declaration has stimulated housing improvements during the last three decades in the slums of Pune, India. Since slum declaration guarantees residents occupancy but not full property rights, this study focuses on how tenure security contributes to housing outcomes, such as materials, size, the number of floors and the amount of money spent for the improvements. Using original household survey data, analysis involving propensity score matching and difference-in-differences methods reveals that slum declaration has tripled a household’s likelihood of having added a second floor and, albeit less clear, increased the average amount of money spent on housing improvements. At the same time, slum declaration has not induced any improvement in housing materials, largely since many residents of non-formalised slums have also replaced materials. These results indicate that slum declaration, even in the long run, has continued to influence housing investments in Pune’s slums, in terms of both type and amount spent, though residents of non-formalised slums have also come to enjoy certain de facto tenure security. Among other implications for policy, these findings underscore that governments should at least provide legal assurance of occupancy rights in informal settlements, even if active interventions such as slum upgrading and titling are currently difficult.

scholarly journals Pre-Colonial Warfare and Long-Run Development in India

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mark Dincecco ◽  
James Fenske ◽  
Anil Menon ◽  
Shivaji Mukherjee
Keyword(s):  
Political Violence ◽  
Local Economic Development ◽  
Indian Subcontinent ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Colonial History ◽  
Development Patterns ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Colonial Warfare

Abstract Does pre-colonial history – and in particular the role of interstate warfare – help explain long-run development patterns across India? To address this question, we construct a new geocoded database of historical conflicts on the Indian subcontinent. We document a robust positive relationship between pre-colonial conflict exposure and local economic development today. Drawing on archival and secondary data, we show that districts that were more exposed to pre-colonial conflict experienced greater early state-making, followed by lower political violence and higher investments in physical and human capital in the long term.

Biological Exchanges in World History

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. R. McNeill
Keyword(s):  
World History ◽  
Human History ◽  
Long Distance ◽  
Domesticated Animals ◽  
Historical Significance ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Biological History

One important way in which people have altered environments, and thereby altered their own ecological contexts and their own history, is through biological exchange. Biological exchange can refer to any number of things. In this article, it means above all else the long-distance transfers of crops, domesticated animals, and disease-causing microbes, or pathogens. This choice is intended to emphasize biological exchanges that carried the greatest and most direct historical significance. The article aims to explore the role of the most important biological exchanges for human history. Biological exchange was sometimes carried out intentionally and sometimes accidentally. Faster and more frequent transport and travel continue to promote biological exchange. The long-term process of biological globalization continues, and will inevitably continue. In biological history, four or five centuries is the merest flash. In the long run, strange and unforeseen things will happen.

THE ECONOMICS OF MITIGATING CLIMATE CHANGE: WHAT CAN WE KNOW?

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Richard A.Rosen ◽  
Edeltraud Guenther
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Costs And Benefits ◽  
Technical Problems ◽  
The Public ◽  
High Profile ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation Policy ◽  
The Many

The long-term economics of mitigating climate change over the long run has played a high profile role in the most important analyses of climate change in the last decade, namely the Stern Report and the IPCC’s Fourth Assessment. However, the various kinds of uncertainties that affect these economic results raise serious questions about whether or not the net costs and benefits of mitigating climate change over periods as long as 50 to 100 years can be known to such a level of accuracy that they should be reported to policymakers and the public. This paper provides a detailed analysis of the derivation of these estimates of the long-term economic costs and benefits of mitigation. It particularly focuses on the role of technological change, especially for energy efficiency technologies, in making the net economic results of mitigating climate change unknowable over the long run. Because of these serious technical problems, policymakers should not base climate change mitigation policy on the estimated net economic impacts computed by integrated assessment models. Rather, mitigation policies must be forcefully implemented anyway given the actual physical climate change crisis, in spite of the many uncertainties involved in trying to predict the net economics of doing so.

scholarly journals An accident of history? How mopeds boosted Dutch cycling infrastructure (1950–1970)

2021 ◽  
pp. 002252662110119
Author(s):  
Henk-Jan Dekker
Keyword(s):  
The Netherlands ◽  
Positive Role ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The 1950S ◽  
Cycle Path

This article argues that mopeds played an ambivalent but ultimately positive role in the long-term success of Dutch cycling. Unlike in many other countries, Dutch cycling levels dropped but remained significant throughout the 1950s and 1960s, partly because cycling infrastructure continued to be constructed. One underexplored factor explaining this is the role of mopeds in the 1950s. The Netherlands constructed a significant network of cycle paths before the 1950s. When mopeds became popular, the existence of this network raised the question of where they should ride. Engineers and politicians classified mopeds as bicycles, assigning them to the cycle path. As a result, engineers decided to build more and wider cycle paths. Despite the danger and discomfort of sharing cycling paths, cyclists therefore also benefited in the long run from the decision to reframe cycle paths as cycle-and-moped paths.

The Responsibility Paradox

2021 ◽  
pp. 150-168
Author(s):  
Amy Yamei Wang ◽  
Cheryl Qianru Zhang ◽  
Eko Liao
Keyword(s):  
Corporate Social Responsibility ◽  
Interior Design ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Business World ◽  
Health Crisis ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Corporate Social ◽  
The Impact

As countries start to emerge from the pandemic with the development of vaccines, the impact of COVID-19 and the changes it has initiated in the business world will continue to be felt across industries. In this chapter, real-life stories from three different industries—chain restaurants, interior design, and cafés—and the lessons they have learned will be discussed and analyzed. The role of corporate social responsibility (CSR) in SMEs is highlighted as a strategy in which organizations can promote the long-term sustainability of their business. Then, three companies in various industries will be introduced with details about how COVID-19 has changed their outlook and goals in competing with other firms and the ways in which they confronted the pandemic. Finally, the authors share implications and offer helpful recommendations as to how SMEs can leverage resources smartly to engage in smart CSR initiatives in better dealing with a global health crisis and play a larger role in taking care of stakeholders in the long run.

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