scholarly journals Safety assessment of petrochemical enterprise using the cloud model, PHA–LOPA and the bow-tie model

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (7) ◽  
pp. 180212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingwei Xu ◽  
Kaili Xu ◽  
Li Li ◽  
Xiwen Yao
Keyword(s):  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Petrochemical Enterprise ◽  
Bow Tie

Safe production is the foundation of the normal operations of petrochemical enterprises, and it helps maintain social stability. The main purpose of this study is to prevent petrochemical enterprise accidents by proposing a composite safety assessment approach based on the cloud model, preliminary hazard analysis–layer of protection analysis (PHA–LOPA) and the bow-tie model. First, the petrochemical enterprise and its relevant indicators were evaluated based on the cloud model. Second, the quantitative effect of the uncertainty transformation on the evaluation result of the cloud model was further analysed. This mainly includes the error analysis of the numerical characteristics under the conditions of few samples and small values. Third, the critical indicators such as shock and noise can be weakened and prevented by corresponding safety measures based on PHA–LOPA and the bow-tie model. After adopting two independent protection layers, the risk levels of shock and noise decrease from 3 to 2. Then, shock and noise were analysed in depth with the bow-tie model, and the causes and consequences were identified. Moreover, corresponding safety measures were taken to prevent accidents. The case study validated the validity and feasibility of the composite safety assessment approach proposed here.

scholarly journals Safety Assessment of Casting Workshop by Cloud Model and Cause and Effect–LOPA to Protect Employee Health

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (7) ◽  
pp. 2555 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingwei Xu ◽  
Kaili Xu ◽  
Fang Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Least Square Method ◽  
Assessment Method ◽  
Employee Health ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Entropy Weight ◽  
Safety Level ◽  
Cause And Effect ◽  
Assessment Approach

Safety assessment of a casting workshop will provide a clearer understanding of the important safety level required for a foundry. The main purpose of this study was to construct a composite safety assessment method to protect employee health using the cloud model and cause and effect–Layer of Protection Analysis (LOPA). In this study, the weights of evaluation indicators were determined using the subjective analytic hierarchy process and objective entropy weight method respectively. Then, to obtain the preference coefficient of the integrated weight more precisely, a new algorithm was proposed based on the least square method. Next, the safety level of the casting workshop was presented based on the qualitative and quantitative analysis of the cloud model, which realized the uncertainty conversion between qualitative concepts and their corresponding quantitative values, as well as taking the fuzziness and randomness into account; the validity of cloud model evaluation was validated by grey relational analysis. In addition, cause and effect was used to proactively identify factors that may lead to accidents. LOPA was used to correlate corresponding safety measures to the identified risk factors. 6 causes and 19 sub-causes that may contribute to accidents were identified, and 18 potential remedies, or independent protection layers (IPLs), were described as ways to protect employee health in foundry operations. A mechanical manufacturing business in Hunan, China was considered as a case study to demonstrate the applicability and benefits of the proposed safety assessment approach.

scholarly journals Risk Cloud Model for Evaluating Nautical Navigational Environments

2021 ◽  
Vol 2021 ◽  
pp. 1-15
Author(s):  
Lijia Chen ◽  
Yanfei Tian
Keyword(s):  
Risk Evaluation ◽  
Fuzzy Theory ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Transportation Systems ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Water Transportation ◽  
Simplified Algorithm ◽  
Cloud Model Theory ◽  
Qualitative And Quantitative Characteristics

Uncertainty makes the risk evaluation of complex water transportation systems (WTSs) a difficult task. To achieve reasonable results while accounting for uncertainty, the risk evaluation of nautical navigational environments (NNEts) is often based on classical cloud model theory. This study proposes the concept of a risk cloud model (RCM) for NNEt evaluation and uses a fuzzy statistics-based computational approach to obtain the RCM parameters. As a case study, the proposed RCM method was applied to the risk evaluation of the Qiongzhou Strait. The performance of the proposed method was compared to those of a fuzzy theory-based method and an earlier proposed simplified algorithm. The results of the case study demonstrated the effectiveness of the proposed method along with several key advantages. First, the method could deal with uncertainty, take advantage of multichannel information, and evaluate risk features. Second, the RCM droplets intuitively displayed the qualitative and quantitative characteristics of risk levels, which facilitated understanding and analysis. Third, it showed a good sensitivity to ensure the refinement of evaluation results. The proposed method offered an improved approach to NNEt risk evaluation under uncertain conditions.

scholarly journals Risk assessment approach to regulatory compliance challenges in aging facilities: A case study of Harlypet Oil and Gas Nigeria Limited Facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-221
Author(s):  
C.E. Alaneme ◽  
S.A. Al-Jeshi ◽  
S.B. Al-Otaibi
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Expanding Population ◽  
Systematic Field

Compliance with new regulations in old plants remains a recurring challenge because of negative outcome of incidents. This challenge stems from uncertainties in the facilities’ integrity, owing to inadequacy of existing integrity-validating technologies. Process facilities deteriorate through cyclic operations, while encroachments from expanding population characteristically raise the risk-levels, leading to need for higher grade materials to meet operational expansions. Retroactive compliance becomes a nightmare with every new regulation without a robust cost-to-benefit assurance. This paper discusses two-phased qualitative and quantitative risk modelling approach through systematic field-data-gathering, hazards identification and analysis by a twelve-man risk management engineers. The methodology successfully computed a “health-check" of the facility’s compliance to new regulations, 17 high-risk-hazards were extracted from 42 potential hazards and successfully established varied individual risk levels ranging from 4.07E-06 to 1.64E-04/year. Also, risks ranged from 1.00E-04 to 5.00E-05/year of tolerable risks to the environment, society, and business were recorded across the facility while, 22 risk-mitigation actions were recommended.

Intelligent Risk Assessment for Pipeline Third-Party Interference

2011 ◽  
Vol 134 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jinqiu Hu ◽  
Laibin Zhang ◽  
Wei Liang ◽  
Cunjie Guo
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Petroleum Industry ◽  
Third Party ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Management Measures ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Oil And Natural Gas ◽  
Neural Network Theory ◽  
Risk Pattern

In petroleum industry, pipeline is singled out as it is the safest and the most economically viable means of transporting large quantities of oil and natural gas. However, accidents to pipelines because of the third-party interference have been recorded. An intelligent risk assessment approach is proposed to estimate the risk of each pipeline section and classify various risk patterns, using self-organization mapping neural network theory, which incorporates the factors of pipeline laying conditions, historical damage records, safety-related actions, management measures, and the environment around the underling pipeline. A field case study of Shaanxi–Beijing gas pipeline in China is undertook so that the effectiveness of the proposed risk pattern classification approach could be verified, which helps safety engineer to take effective and accurate safety measures according to different risk patterns.

Formal Safety Assessment of Cargo Ships at Coasts and Open Seas of Turkey

2012 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hakan Akyildiz ◽  
Ayhan Mentes ◽  
Ismail Hakki Helvacioglu
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Assessment Framework ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Formal Safety Assessment ◽  
Common Causes ◽  
Independent Effects ◽  
Offshore Operations

This paper presents an evaluation of Formal Safety Assessment framework for cargo ships at coasts and open seas of Turkey. Based on Turkish Under secretariat of Maritime Affairs casualty reports, this study identifies risk factors that have significant, independent effects upon the likelihood of ship and offshore operations. A case study is carried out to determine the most common causes of unintentional damages on cargo ships using FSA. It is obvious that shortage of skilled crew and crew training become very important for safety. This would require a compulsory course related to the human functions such as knowledge of regulations and use of equipment. Finally, some conclusions and suggestions are drawn concerning the needs to reduce the risks and to improve certain safety measures at coasts and open seas of Turkey.

scholarly journals Exploring Factors Influencing Scenarios Evolution of Waste NIMBY Crisis: Analysis of Typical Cases in China

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 2006
Author(s):  
Ling He ◽  
Qing Yang ◽  
Xingxing Liu ◽  
Lingmei Fu ◽  
Jinmei Wang
Keyword(s):  
Network Theory ◽  
Development Process ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Network ◽  
Impact Factors ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Ground Theory ◽  
Evolution Path ◽  
Dynamic Scenario ◽  
The Impact

As the impact factors of the waste Not-In-My-Back Yard (NIMBY) crisis are complex, and the scenario evolution path of it is diverse. Once the crisis is not handled properly, it will bring adverse effects on the construction of waste NIMBY facilities, economic development and social stability. Consequently, based on ground theory, this paper takes the waste NIMBY crisis in China from 2006 to 2019 as typical cases, through coding analysis, scenario evolution factors of waste NIMBY crisis are established. Furtherly, three key scenarios were obtained, namely, external situation (E), situation state (S), emergency management (M), what is more, scenario evolution law of waste NIMBY crisis is revealed. Then, the dynamic Bayesian network theory is used to construct the dynamic scenario evolution network of waste NIMBY crisis. Finally, based on the above models, Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is taken as a case study, and the dynamic process of scenario evolution network is visually displayed by using Netica. The simulation results show that the scenario evolution network of Xiantao waste NIMBY crisis is basically consistent with the actual incident development process, which confirms the effectiveness and feasibility of the model.

Urban flood hazard analysis in present and future climate after statistical downscaling: a case study in Ha Tinh city, Vietnam

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (4) ◽  
pp. 257-274
Author(s):  
T. T. A. Le ◽  
N. T. Lan-Anh ◽  
V. Daskali ◽  
B. Verbist ◽  
K. C. Vu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Statistical Downscaling ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Future Climate ◽  
Urban Flood

scholarly journals Increasing the safety of traditional shipping using formal safety assessment approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sunaryo ◽  
Abdurrasyid Lubis ◽  
Muhammad Bagja Ramadhan
Keyword(s):  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Formal Safety Assessment ◽  
Assessment Approach
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