scholarly journals Risk assessment approach to regulatory compliance challenges in aging facilities: A case study of Harlypet Oil and Gas Nigeria Limited Facilities

2021 ◽  
Vol 40 (2) ◽  
pp. 210-221
Author(s):  
C.E. Alaneme ◽  
S.A. Al-Jeshi ◽  
S.B. Al-Otaibi
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Regulatory Compliance ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Expanding Population ◽  
Systematic Field

Compliance with new regulations in old plants remains a recurring challenge because of negative outcome of incidents. This challenge stems from uncertainties in the facilities’ integrity, owing to inadequacy of existing integrity-validating technologies. Process facilities deteriorate through cyclic operations, while encroachments from expanding population characteristically raise the risk-levels, leading to need for higher grade materials to meet operational expansions. Retroactive compliance becomes a nightmare with every new regulation without a robust cost-to-benefit assurance. This paper discusses two-phased qualitative and quantitative risk modelling approach through systematic field-data-gathering, hazards identification and analysis by a twelve-man risk management engineers. The methodology successfully computed a “health-check" of the facility’s compliance to new regulations, 17 high-risk-hazards were extracted from 42 potential hazards and successfully established varied individual risk levels ranging from 4.07E-06 to 1.64E-04/year. Also, risks ranged from 1.00E-04 to 5.00E-05/year of tolerable risks to the environment, society, and business were recorded across the facility while, 22 risk-mitigation actions were recommended.

scholarly journals ANALYSING DELAY IMPACT FROM POTENTIAL RISK FACTORS ON PROJECT DELIVERY OF OIL AND GAS PIPELINE: A CASE STUDY IN IRAQ

2021 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
LAYTH A KRAIDI ◽  
Raj Shah ◽  
Wilfred Matipa ◽  
Fiona Fiona Borthwick
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Project Delivery ◽  
Analysis Framework ◽  
Potential Risk Factors ◽  
South Of Iraq ◽  
The Impact

The aim of this paper is to present the design and specifications of an integrated Delay Analysis Framework (DAF), which could be used to quantify the delay caused by the Risk Factors (RFs) in Oil and Gas Pipelines (OGPs) projects in a simple and systematic way. The main inputs of the DAF are (i) the potential list of RFs in the projects and their impact levels on the projects and the estimated maximum and minimum duration of each task. Monte Carlo Simulation integrated within @Risk simulator was the key process algorithm that used to quantify the impact of delay caused by the associated RFs. The key output of the DAF is the amount of potential delay caused by RFs in the OGP project. The functionalities of the developed DAF were evaluated using a case study of newly developed OGP project, in the south of Iraq. It is found that the case study project might have delayed by 45 days if neglected the consideration of the RFs associated with the project at the construction stage. The paper concludes that identifying the associated RFs and analysing the potential delay in advance will help in reducing the construction delay and improving the effectiveness of the project delivery by taking suitable risk mitigation measures.  

Quantifying Unknown Unknowns in an Oil and Gas Capital Project

2012 ◽  
Vol 1 (2) ◽  
pp. 29-42 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuri Raydugin
Keyword(s):  
Oil And Gas ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Project Schedule ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Capital Projects ◽  
Four Dimensions ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Known Unknowns ◽  
Practical Recommendations

Projects continue to fail at a high rate despite the well-known risk benchmarks published decades ago. Risk assessment and contingency planning are needed in oil and gas (O&G) capital projects because of many ‘unknown unknowns.’ Uncertainty must be estimated for the project schedule as well as for investment costs. Quantitative estimates and diagramming tools can assist in understanding and communicating project risk levels. This paper outlines and applies a method for quantifying unknown unknowns in the O&G industry based on a case study. Four dimensions of unknown unknowns are discussed: novelty of a project, phase of project development, type of industry, and bias. Uncertainty is classified as unknown unknowns, bias, known unknowns, and corporate risks. Practical recommendations are made to quantify uncertainty using probabilistic risk models, and then to integrate these estimates into the budget and schedule.

Hydrocarbon Field Re-Development in a Bayesian Framework

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dominik Steineder ◽  
Torsten Clemens
Keyword(s):  
Performance Indicators ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Key Performance Indicators ◽  
Bayesian Framework ◽  
Development Projects ◽  
Project Development ◽  
Project Objectives ◽  
Hydrocarbon Field

Abstract Hydrocarbon field (re-)development projects are challenging to perform as a number of decisions need to be taken under uncertainty. In addition, data gathering activities need to be performed to decrease the risk of negative outcomes related to project objectives and to select the development option with the highest value. Many oil and gas E&P companies are using as stage-gate process to mature hydrocarbon field (re-)development projects. Such a process allows for systematic project development including value assurance measures such as peer reviews prior to decision gates. However, the stage-gate leads to challenges if it is not performed in a Bayesian framework. If for example simplified models are used in the early phase of the stage-gate process, no Bayesian updating of believes can be done. Similarly, if the company is not seamlessly integrating project value in project development, the value of development option and of data acquisition cannot be quantitatively determined. We are showing how to mature projects in a Bayesian framework. We show how data gathering is used to update believes and how generalized sensitivity analysis can be applied to identify which decisions have an impact of project value and which parameters are sensitive to the decision which development option to perform. The key performance indicators such as Expected Monetary Value, Probability of Maturation, Probability of Economic Success are updated. The changes of the sensitivities of the various uncertain parameters with project maturation is monitored and the decision maker is supplied with key performance indicators and residual risks, risk mitigation and management plans at Final Investment Decision.

Multihazard Risk Aggregation Approach for Quantitative Risk Assessment of Upstream Oil and Gas Facilities

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Luca Decarli ◽  
Anna Crivellari ◽  
Laura La Rosa ◽  
Enrico Zio ◽  
Francesco Di Maio ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Quantitative Risk Assessment ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Safety Barriers ◽  
Novel Approach ◽  
Risk Aggregation ◽  
Plant Level ◽  
Hazard Risk Assessment

Abstract For the design and operation of Oil and Gas (O&G) facilities, a Quantitative Risk Assessment (QRA) should be performed to quantify the risk of major accidents due to multiple hazards and sources at the plant level, thus allowing the effective identification and allocation of safety barriers. In this work, a novel approach for the multi-hazard and multi-source aggregation of risks is proposed, accounting for the uncertainties typically unexpressed in a conventional QRA (both on the frequency and severity of the accidental scenarios). The multi-hazard risk assessment framework proposed is applied to assess the Location-Specific Individual Risk (LSIR) for a representative Upstream O&G plant (case study), using a model based on multistate Bayesian Networks (BNs) for different functional units, each one undergoing an initiating event of Loss Of Primary Containment (LOPC). Estimates of frequency and severity for each possible accident scenario are aggregated to eventually calculate the overall LSIR. Moreover, LSIR's confidence intervals are provided to describe the uncertainty associated to the estimates, and the frequency and severity contributions to risk are derived for targeted prioritization of the safety barriers in view of the risk reduction.

Development of the community based individual risk mitigation profile (IRMP) for people who have intellectual disability and are at risk of offending

2016 ◽  
Vol 7 (2) ◽  
pp. 66-74 ◽  
Author(s):  
John Hutchinson ◽  
Vicky Dunn
Keyword(s):  
At Risk ◽  
Intellectual Disability ◽  
Best Practice ◽  
Risk Mitigation ◽  
Reliability And Validity ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Community Based ◽  
Content Type ◽  
A Current

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to discuss the development of the community-based individual risk mitigation profile (IRMP) and to examine its effectiveness for people who have an intellectual disability, and are at risk of offending, through the use of a case study. Design/methodology/approach – Case study and literature review. Findings – The tool has been found to be useful and accessible by clinicians. It has a particular focus on joint sharing of opinion on risk and decision making in a structured and contained multi-disciplinary forum, that is evidence-based and defensible. This multi-disciplinary approach meets recommendations in best practice in relation to risk. Research limitations/implications – A current limitation is that the IRMP has not been evaluated for reliability and validity, though a research study is being planned. Originality/value – The paper highlights the usefulness of a community-based risk profile assessment and linked risk mitigation process.

scholarly journals Safety assessment of petrochemical enterprise using the cloud model, PHA–LOPA and the bow-tie model

2018 ◽  
Vol 5 (7) ◽  
pp. 180212 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qingwei Xu ◽  
Kaili Xu ◽  
Li Li ◽  
Xiwen Yao
Keyword(s):  
Safety Assessment ◽  
Cloud Model ◽  
Hazard Analysis ◽  
Social Stability ◽  
Safety Measures ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Petrochemical Enterprise ◽  
Bow Tie

Safe production is the foundation of the normal operations of petrochemical enterprises, and it helps maintain social stability. The main purpose of this study is to prevent petrochemical enterprise accidents by proposing a composite safety assessment approach based on the cloud model, preliminary hazard analysis–layer of protection analysis (PHA–LOPA) and the bow-tie model. First, the petrochemical enterprise and its relevant indicators were evaluated based on the cloud model. Second, the quantitative effect of the uncertainty transformation on the evaluation result of the cloud model was further analysed. This mainly includes the error analysis of the numerical characteristics under the conditions of few samples and small values. Third, the critical indicators such as shock and noise can be weakened and prevented by corresponding safety measures based on PHA–LOPA and the bow-tie model. After adopting two independent protection layers, the risk levels of shock and noise decrease from 3 to 2. Then, shock and noise were analysed in depth with the bow-tie model, and the causes and consequences were identified. Moreover, corresponding safety measures were taken to prevent accidents. The case study validated the validity and feasibility of the composite safety assessment approach proposed here.

scholarly journals Assessing and predicting individual occupational risk and determining its exact categories using probabilistic methods

2021 ◽  
pp. 92-99
Author(s):  
V.A. Fokin ◽  
◽  
N.V. Zaitseva ◽  
P.Z. Shur ◽  
S.V. Redko ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Risks ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Test Group ◽  
Occupational Risk ◽  
Probabilistic Methods ◽  
Individual Risk ◽  
Gas Extraction ◽  
Risk Levels ◽  
Occupational Risks ◽  
Risk Categories

Existing approaches to occupational risk assessment more often involve evaluating its group levels and individual risks are assessed less frequently. These approaches provide deterministic risk assessment which doesn’t take into account uncertainty in risk categorizing when its values are close to boundaries between adjoining risks categories. It substantiates the necessity to assess occupational risk levels using probabilistic methods. Our research object was occupational risk and the basic subject was distribution of individual occupational risk levels among workers. Our test group was made up of oil and gas extraction operators exposed to noise equal to 80–85 dBA at their workplaces (173 people). Our control group included oil and gas extraction operators and engineering and technical personnel occupationally exposed to noise equal to 60–77.8 dBA (259 people). We performed a priori assessment of occupational health risks; accomplished epidemiologic analysis of a cause-effect relation between health disorders and work; calculated group occupational health risks; calculated and predicted individual occupational risk using mathematical modeling of dependence between probable negative responses and working conditions, age, and period of employment; determined risk categories more precisely using fuzzy sets by calculating the membership function. As a result, we established that proven individual risk levels were distributed unevenly (1.06•10-4–1.47•10-2) as per categories within a group characterized with a suspected average risk level. A category of proven individual risk levels was determined more precisely using fuzzy sets; after that distribution of probability of their membership was evaluated to detect that at the moment of the research a share of workers with their proven individual occupational risks falling into lower risk categories (p > 0.5) amounted to 89.6 %. We attempted to predict risks for the whole employment period given that working conditions remained the same and no prevention activities were provided. Our prediction revealed that individual occupational risks would remain unacceptable for all workers in the test group and would amount to 2.53•10-2–3.51•10-2; a risk category was also expected to become higher. In-dividual occupational risk would be categorized as average for most workers and as high for 23 % of them (p < 0.5).

scholarly journals A Dynamic-Bayesian-Networks-Based Resilience Assessment Approach of Structure Systems: Subsea Oil and Gas Pipelines as A Case Study

2020 ◽  
Vol 34 (5) ◽  
pp. 597-607
Author(s):  
Bao-ping Cai ◽  
Yan-ping Zhang ◽  
Xiao-bing Yuan ◽  
Chun-tan Gao ◽  
Yong-hong Liu ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Networks ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
Dynamic Bayesian Networks ◽  
Gas Pipelines ◽  
Oil And Gas Pipelines ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
Resilience Assessment

Overcoming Challenges of International Migration Research: A Case Study Approach in Southern Mexico

2016 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 131-143
Author(s):  
Julie Boyles
Keyword(s):  
International Migration ◽  
Common Ground ◽  
Data Gathering ◽  
Ethnographic Case Study ◽  
Case Study Approach ◽  
Southern Mexico ◽  
Mixed Methods Approach ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Migration Research

An ethnographic case study approach to understanding women’s actions and reactions to husbands’ emigration—or potential emigration—offers a distinct set of challenges to a U.S.-based researcher.  International migration research in a foreign context likely offers challenges in language, culture, lifestyle, as well as potential gender norm impediments. A mixed methods approach contributed to successfully overcoming barriers through an array of research methods, strategies, and tactics, as well as practicing flexibility in data gathering methods. Even this researcher’s influence on the research was minimized and alleviated, to a degree, through ascertaining common ground with many of the women. Research with the women of San Juan Guelavía, Oaxaca, Mexico offered numerous and constant challenges, each overcome with ensuing rewards.

Varied Responses to Human-Induced Seismicity in the City of Azle, Texas

2019 ◽  
Vol 3 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Author(s):  
Sarmistha R. Majumdar
Keyword(s):  
State Government ◽  
Induced Seismicity ◽  
Oil And Gas ◽  
The United States ◽  
The State ◽  
Prior History ◽  
Small Community ◽  
Regulatory Policies ◽  
The Status

Fracking has helped to usher in an era of energy abundance in the United States. This advanced drilling procedure has helped the nation to attain the status of the largest producer of crude oil and natural gas in the world, but some of its negative externalities, such as human-induced seismicity, can no longer be ignored. The occurrence of earthquakes in communities located at proximity to disposal wells with no prior history of seismicity has shocked residents and have caused damages to properties. It has evoked individuals’ resentment against the practice of injection of fracking’s wastewater under pressure into underground disposal wells. Though the oil and gas companies have denied the existence of a link between such a practice and earthquakes and the local and state governments have delayed their responses to the unforeseen seismic events, the issue has gained in prominence among researchers, affected community residents, and the media. This case study has offered a glimpse into the varied responses of stakeholders to human-induced seismicity in a small city in the state of Texas. It is evident from this case study that although individuals’ complaints and protests from a small community may not be successful in bringing about statewide changes in regulatory policies on disposal of fracking’s wastewater, they can add to the public pressure on the state government to do something to address the problem in a state that supports fracking.

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