scholarly journals Using prediction markets to predict the outcomes in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's next-generation social science programme

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 181308
Author(s):  
Domenico Viganola ◽  
Grant Buckles ◽  
Yiling Chen ◽  
Pablo Diego-Rosell ◽  
Magnus Johannesson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Research Projects ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Aggregate Information ◽  
Scientific Results ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Test Result

There is evidence that prediction markets are useful tools to aggregate information on researchers' beliefs about scientific results including the outcome of replications. In this study, we use prediction markets to forecast the results of novel experimental designs that test established theories. We set up prediction markets for hypotheses tested in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) Next Generation Social Science (NGS2) programme. Researchers were invited to bet on whether 22 hypotheses would be supported or not. We define support as a test result in the same direction as hypothesized, with a Bayes factor of at least 10 (i.e. a likelihood of the observed data being consistent with the tested hypothesis that is at least 10 times greater compared with the null hypothesis). In addition to betting on this binary outcome, we asked participants to bet on the expected effect size (in Cohen's d ) for each hypothesis. Our goal was to recruit at least 50 participants that signed up to participate in these markets. While this was the case, only 39 participants ended up actually trading. Participants also completed a survey on both the binary result and the effect size. We find that neither prediction markets nor surveys performed well in predicting outcomes for NGS2.

scholarly journals Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (50) ◽  
pp. 15343-15347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Dreber ◽  
Thomas Pfeiffer ◽  
Johan Almenberg ◽  
Siri Isaksson ◽  
Brad Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Scientific Discovery ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Significant Finding ◽  
Prior Probabilities ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
Scientific Results ◽  
Set Up

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

Theory, Method, and Social Reproduction in Social Science History: A Short Jeremiad

1999 ◽  
Vol 23 (4) ◽  
pp. 491-499
Author(s):  
Charles Wetherell
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Formal Methods ◽  
Social Theory ◽  
Social Reproduction ◽  
Historical Research ◽  
Theory Method ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Science History ◽  
Social Science History ◽  
Collective Enterprise

Let me begin with a simple theme, repentance, and a simple message: repent from complacency in the practice and defense of social science history (SSH). I say this because I do not see social science historians meeting three major challenges that must be overcome if the larger, collective enterprise is to survive with the same vitality it had a decade ago. Those challenges are, first, to bring social theory forcefully back into historical research; second, to take formal methods to a new, higher level; and, third, to seek to train the next generation of social science historians in the theory and methods they will need in the next century.

Making Nano Matter

2012 ◽  
Vol 37 (6) ◽  
pp. 604-626 ◽  
Author(s):  
Elena Simakova
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Scientific Practice ◽  
Social Science Research ◽  
Science Research ◽  
The United States ◽  
University Campus ◽  
Relevant Research ◽  
Societal Relevance ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Interpretive Flexibility

The article examines science-policy conversations mediated by social science in attempts to govern, or set up terms for, scientific research. The production of social science research accounts about science faces challenges in the domains of emerging technosciences, such as nano. Constructing notions of success and failure, participants in science actively engage in the interpretation of policy notions, such as the societal relevance of their research. Industrial engagement is one of the prominent themes both in policy renditions of governable science, and in the participants’ attempts to achieve societally relevant research, often oriented into the future. How do we, as researchers, go about collecting, recording, and analyzing such future stories? I examine a series of recent interviews conducted in a number of US universities, and in particular at a university campus on the West Coast of the United States. The research engages participants through interviews, which can be understood as occasions for testing the interpretive flexibility of nano as “good” scientific practice and of what counts as societal relevance, under what circumstances and in view of what kind of audiences.

scholarly journals Simulation Studies as a Tool to Understand Bayes Factors

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (1) ◽  
pp. 251524592097262
Author(s):  
Don van Ravenzwaaij ◽  
Alexander Etz
Keyword(s):  
Simulation Study ◽  
Prior Distribution ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
R Package ◽  
Bayes Factors ◽  
Simulation Studies ◽  
Social Scientists ◽  
Simple Simulation ◽  
Set Up

When social scientists wish to learn about an empirical phenomenon, they perform an experiment. When they wish to learn about a complex numerical phenomenon, they can perform a simulation study. The goal of this Tutorial is twofold. First, it introduces how to set up a simulation study using the relatively simple example of simulating from the prior. Second, it demonstrates how simulation can be used to learn about the Jeffreys-Zellner-Siow (JZS) Bayes factor, a currently popular implementation of the Bayes factor employed in the BayesFactor R package and freeware program JASP. Many technical expositions on Bayes factors exist, but these may be somewhat inaccessible to researchers who are not specialized in statistics. In a step-by-step approach, this Tutorial shows how a simple simulation script can be used to approximate the calculation of the Bayes factor. We explain how a researcher can write such a sampler to approximate Bayes factors in a few lines of code, what the logic is behind the Savage-Dickey method used to visualize Bayes factors, and what the practical differences are for different choices of the prior distribution used to calculate Bayes factors.

scholarly journals Norma dan Nilai dalam Ilmu Ekonomi Islam

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
pp. 105-123
Author(s):  
Nurul Fahmi
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Economic Problems ◽  
Goods And Services ◽  
Norms And Values ◽  
The World ◽  
Science And Theology ◽  
Set Up

Islam has been set up with the norms and values in each discipline of knowledge. Including Islamic economics, Islamic economics as a social science and theology is not only derived from the Qur'an and as-Sunnah, but also stems from empirical phenomena and economic problems in the field. Epistemologically, Islamic economics is divided into two disciplines: First, normative Islamic economics, which is the study of Islamic sharia laws relating to property affairs and treasures. Second, positive Islamic economics, which is the study of Islamic concepts relating to property affairs and treasures, especially with regard to the production of goods and services. Norms and values created in Islamic economics aims to provide moral and ethical order in the economy itself, because it is basically the purpose of Islamic economics in the world is reaching the livelihoods and happiness in the Hereafter (hayatun thoyyibah and falah both in this world and in the hereafter)

Archaeologies of Automobility

2013 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Merriman
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Cultural History ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Research Projects ◽  
Archival Research ◽  
Research Project ◽  
Contemporary Archaeology ◽  
Road Signs ◽  
1960S And 1970S ◽  
Design Construction

Archaeologists are no strangers to the spaces and materialities of roads. The material cultures of prehistoric and Roman roads have provided an important focus for archaeological investigations, while modern road construction programmes have provided invaluable opportunities to conduct archaeological and geological investigations of sub-surface materials. In recent years, humanities and social science scholars have started to trace the material cultures and practices associated with the modern spaces of the car, road, and driving, and this chapter traces the outlines of what we might call an archaeology of modern automobility, discussing the findings of two research projects undertaken on the material cultures of automobility. Drawing upon research on the historical geographies of Britain’s M1 motorway the author examines how archaeological techniques (including field excavations) could provide an important complement to archival research in order to trace the design, construction, and use of such sites. In the second example, the chapter discusses a recent research project which attempted to write a cultural history and contemporary archaeology of the campaign for bilingual road signs in Wales. Drawing upon archival research, oral histories, and photographic research, the project reveals how the materiality of road signs was central to the motives behind-and effectiveness of-the campaign in 1960s and 1970s Wales.

Clark Kerr

2019 ◽  
pp. 51-89
Author(s):  
Ethan Schrum
Keyword(s):  
Economic Development ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Industrial Relations ◽  
Research Projects ◽  
American Social Science ◽  
Clark Kerr ◽  
Institutional Contexts ◽  
The University ◽  
Science Movement ◽  
Administrative Science

Chapter 2 explores the work of Clark Kerr as a thinker and university leader. It examines the Inter-University Study of Labor Problems in Economic Development directed by Kerr, one of the largest organized research projects in American social science during the postwar years. This study proposed a new theory of industrialism that informed Kerr’s thinking about universities. The Inter-University Study provides a window into its most important institutional contexts: the Institute of Industrial Relations (IIR) at UC Berkeley and the Ford Foundation’s Program in Economic Development and Administration. The chapter describes Kerr’s promotion of ORUs—first at the IIR, which he directed for seven years, and then across the Berkeley campus once he became chancellor. It also shows how his immersion in the administrative science movement shaped his view of the university’s mission. The chapter uncovers the sources of key ideas Kerr set forth in The Uses of the University.

Computer Information Library Clusters

2019 ◽  
pp. 142-147
Author(s):  
Fu Yuhua
Keyword(s):  
Solar System ◽  
Social Science ◽  
Natural Science ◽  
Milky Way ◽  
Variation Principle ◽  
Unified Theory ◽  
Milky Way Galaxy ◽  
System Information ◽  
Set Up

Based on creating generalized and hybrid set and library with neutrosophy and quad-stage method, this chapter presents the concept of computer information library clusters (CILC). There are various ways and means to form CILC. For example, CILC can be considered as the “total-library” and consists of several “sub-libraries.” As another example, in CILC, a total-library can be set up, and a number of sub-libraries are side by side with the total-library. Specially, for CILC, the operation functions can be added; for example, according to natural science computer information library clusters (natural science CILC), and applying variation principle of library (or sub-library), partial and temporary unified theory of natural science so far with different degrees can be established. Referring to the concept of natural science CILC, the concepts of social science CILC, natural science and social science CILC, and the like can be presented. While referring to the concept of computer information library clusters, the concepts of computer and non-computer information library clusters, earth information library clusters, solar system information library clusters, Milky Way galaxy information library clusters, universe information library clusters, and the like can be presented.

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