scholarly journals Using prediction markets to estimate the reproducibility of scientific research

2015 ◽  
Vol 112 (50) ◽  
pp. 15343-15347 ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Dreber ◽  
Thomas Pfeiffer ◽  
Johan Almenberg ◽  
Siri Isaksson ◽  
Brad Wilson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Temporal Dynamics ◽  
Scientific Discovery ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Significant Finding ◽  
Prior Probabilities ◽  
Market Participants ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
Scientific Results ◽  
Set Up

Concerns about a lack of reproducibility of statistically significant results have recently been raised in many fields, and it has been argued that this lack comes at substantial economic costs. We here report the results from prediction markets set up to quantify the reproducibility of 44 studies published in prominent psychology journals and replicated in the Reproducibility Project: Psychology. The prediction markets predict the outcomes of the replications well and outperform a survey of market participants’ individual forecasts. This shows that prediction markets are a promising tool for assessing the reproducibility of published scientific results. The prediction markets also allow us to estimate probabilities for the hypotheses being true at different testing stages, which provides valuable information regarding the temporal dynamics of scientific discovery. We find that the hypotheses being tested in psychology typically have low prior probabilities of being true (median, 9%) and that a “statistically significant” finding needs to be confirmed in a well-powered replication to have a high probability of being true. We argue that prediction markets could be used to obtain speedy information about reproducibility at low cost and could potentially even be used to determine which studies to replicate to optimally allocate limited resources into replications.

scholarly journals A New Optical Sensor Based on Laser Speckle and Chemometrics for Precision Agriculture: Application to Sunflower Plant-Breeding

Sensors ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (16) ◽  
pp. 4652
Author(s):  
Maxime Ryckewaert ◽  
Daphné Héran ◽  
Emma Faur ◽  
Pierre George ◽  
Bruno Grèzes-Besset ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Precision Agriculture ◽  
Measurement Errors ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Laser Speckle ◽  
Average Error ◽  
Accurate Information ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
Cost Constraints ◽  
Speckle Patterns ◽  
Set Up

New instruments to characterize vegetation must meet cost constraints while providing accurate information. In this paper, we study the potential of a laser speckle system as a low-cost solution for non-destructive phenotyping. The objective is to assess an original approach combining laser speckle with chemometrics to describe scattering and absorption properties of sunflower leaves, related to their chemical composition or internal structure. A laser diode system at two wavelengths 660 nm and 785 nm combined with polarization has been set up to differentiate four sunflower genotypes. REP-ASCA was used as a method to analyze parameters extracted from speckle patterns by reducing sources of measurement error. First findings have shown that measurement errors are mostly due to unwilling residual specular reflections. Moreover, results outlined that the genotype significantly impacts measurements. The variables involved in genotype dissociation are mainly related to scattering properties within the leaf. Moreover, an example of genotype classification using REP-ASCA outcomes is given and classify genotypes with an average error of about 20%. These encouraging results indicate that a laser speckle system is a promising tool to compare sunflower genotypes. Furthermore, an autonomous low-cost sensor based on this approach could be used directly in the field.

scholarly journals Using prediction markets to predict the outcomes in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's next-generation social science programme

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 181308
Author(s):  
Domenico Viganola ◽  
Grant Buckles ◽  
Yiling Chen ◽  
Pablo Diego-Rosell ◽  
Magnus Johannesson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Science ◽  
Effect Size ◽  
Bayes Factor ◽  
Prediction Markets ◽  
Research Projects ◽  
Next Generation ◽  
Aggregate Information ◽  
Scientific Results ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Test Result

There is evidence that prediction markets are useful tools to aggregate information on researchers' beliefs about scientific results including the outcome of replications. In this study, we use prediction markets to forecast the results of novel experimental designs that test established theories. We set up prediction markets for hypotheses tested in the Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency's (DARPA) Next Generation Social Science (NGS2) programme. Researchers were invited to bet on whether 22 hypotheses would be supported or not. We define support as a test result in the same direction as hypothesized, with a Bayes factor of at least 10 (i.e. a likelihood of the observed data being consistent with the tested hypothesis that is at least 10 times greater compared with the null hypothesis). In addition to betting on this binary outcome, we asked participants to bet on the expected effect size (in Cohen's d ) for each hypothesis. Our goal was to recruit at least 50 participants that signed up to participate in these markets. While this was the case, only 39 participants ended up actually trading. Participants also completed a survey on both the binary result and the effect size. We find that neither prediction markets nor surveys performed well in predicting outcomes for NGS2.

Development of a Capacitor Probe to Detect Subsurface Deterioration in Concrete

1997 ◽  
Vol 503 ◽  
Author(s):  
B. K. Diefenderfer ◽  
I. L. Al-Qadi ◽  
J. J. Yoho ◽  
S. M. Riad ◽  
A. Loulizi
Keyword(s):  
Dielectric Constant ◽  
Portland Cement ◽  
Electromagnetic Waves ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Complex Dielectric Constant ◽  
Life Cycle Costs ◽  
Parallel Plates ◽  
Portland Cement Concrete ◽  
Cement Concrete ◽  
Set Up

ABSTRACTPortland cement concrete (PCC) structures deteriorate with age and need to be maintained or replaced. Early detection of deterioration in PCC (e.g., alkali-silica reaction, freeze/thaw damage, or chloride presence) can lead to significant reductions in maintenance costs. However, it is often too late to perform low-cost preventative maintenance by the time deterioration becomes evident. By developing techniques that would enable civil engineers to evaluate PCC structures and detect deterioration at early stages (without causing further damage), optimization of life-cycle costs of the constructed facility and minimization of disturbance to the facility users can be achieved.Nondestructive evaluation (NDE) methods are potentially one of the most useful techniques ever developed for assessing constructed facilities. They are noninvasive and can be performed rapidly. Portland cement concrete can be nondestructively evaluated by electrically characterizing its complex dielectric constant. The real part of the dielectric constant depicts the velocity of electromagnetic waves in PCC. The imaginary part, termed the “loss factor,” describes the conductivity of PCC and the attenuation of electromagnetic waves.Dielectric properties of PCC have been investigated in a laboratory setting using a parallel plate capacitor operating in the frequency range of 0.1 to 40.1MIHz. This capacitor set-up consists of two horizontal-parallel plates with an adjustable separation for insertion of a dielectric specimen (PCC). While useful in research, this approach is not practical for field implementation. A new capacitor probe has been developed which consists of two plates, located within the same horizontal plane, for placement upon the specimen to be tested. Preliminary results show that this technique is feasible and results are promising; further testing and evaluation is currently underway.

Fault Localization of Power-Ground Short via Signal Injection and Oscilloscope Technique

2010 ◽  
Author(s):  
Binh Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Low Cost ◽  
Short Circuit ◽  
Fault Localization ◽  
Fault Isolation ◽  
Test Apparatus ◽  
Good Working ◽  
Signal Injection ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Non Destructive ◽  
Short Circuit Condition

Abstract For those attempting fault isolation on computer motherboard power-ground short issues, the optimal technique should utilize existing test equipment available in the debug facility, requiring no specialty equipment as well as needing a minimum of training to use effectively. The test apparatus should be both easy to set up and easy to use. This article describes the signal injection and oscilloscope technique which meets the above requirements. The signal injection and oscilloscope technique is based on the application of Ohm's law in a short-circuit condition. Two experiments were conducted to prove the effectiveness of these techniques. Both experiments simulate a short-circuit condition on the VCC3 power rail of a good working PC motherboard and then apply the signal injection and oscilloscope technique to localize the short. The technique described is a simple, low cost and non-destructive method that helps to find the location of the power-ground short quickly and effectively.

Optimum Design for the Frame of Open Type Abrasive Flow Polish Machine

2012 ◽  
Vol 497 ◽  
pp. 89-93
Author(s):  
Liang Liang Yuan ◽  
Ke Hua Zhang ◽  
Li Min
Keyword(s):  
Finite Element ◽  
Natural Frequency ◽  
Finite Element Methods ◽  
Optimization Design ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Three Dimensional ◽  
Force Model ◽  
Optimization Analysis ◽  
Open Type ◽  
Set Up

In order to process heterotype hole of workpiece precisely, an open abrasive flow polish machine is designed, and the optimization design of machine frame is done for low cost. Firstly, basing on the parameters designed with traditional ways, three-dimensional force model is set up with the soft of SolidWorks. Secondly, the statics and modal analysis for machine body have been done in Finite element methods (FEM), and then the optimization analysis of machine frame has been done. At last, the model of rebuild machine frame has been built. Result shows that the deformation angle value of machine frame increased from 0.72′ to 1.001′, the natural frequency of the machine decreased from 75.549 Hz to 62.262 Hz, the weight of machine decreased by 74.178 Kg after optimization. It meets the strength, stiffness and angel stiffness requirement of machine, reduces the weight and cost of machine.

scholarly journals Innovative passive reinforcements for the gradual stabilization of a landslide according with the observational method

Landslides ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lorenzo Brezzi ◽  
Alberto Bisson ◽  
Davide Pasa ◽  
Simonetta Cola
Keyword(s):  
Monitoring System ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Fe Model ◽  
Site Conditions ◽  
Observational Method ◽  
Rainy Period ◽  
Sustainable Solutions ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Set Up

AbstractA large number of landslides occur in North-Eastern Italy during every rainy period due to the particular hydrogeological conditions of this area. Even if there are no casualties, the economic losses are often significant, and municipalities frequently do not have sufficient financial resources to repair the damage and stabilize all the unstable slopes. In this regard, the research for more economically sustainable solutions is a crucial challenge. Floating composite anchors are an innovative and low-cost technique set up for slope stabilization: it consists in the use of passive sub-horizontal reinforcements, obtained by coupling a traditional self-drilling bar with some tendons cemented inside it. This work concerns the application of this technique according to the observational method described within the Italian and European technical codes and mainly recommended for the design of geotechnical works, especially when performed in highly uncertain site conditions. The observational method prescribes designing an intervention and, at the same time, using a monitoring system in order to correct and adapt the project during realization of the works on the basis of new data acquired while on site. The case study is the landslide of Cischele, a medium landslide which occurred in 2010 after an exceptional heavy rainy period. In 2015, some floating composite anchors were installed to slow down the movement, even if, due to a limited budget, they were not enough to ensure the complete stabilization of the slope. Thanks to a monitoring system installed in the meantime, it is now possible to have a comparison between the site conditions before and after the intervention. This allows the evaluation of benefits achieved with the reinforcements and, at the same time, the assessment of additional improvements. Two stabilization scenarios are studied through an FE model: the first includes the stabilization system built in 2015, while the second evaluates a new solution proposed to further increase the slope stability.

scholarly journals Simple low dose radiography allows precise lung volume assessment in mice

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amara Khan ◽  
Andrea Markus ◽  
Thomas Rittmann ◽  
Jonas Albers ◽  
Frauke Alves ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lung Function ◽  
Whole Body ◽  
Acquisition Time ◽  
Micro Ct ◽  
Lung Volumes ◽  
X Ray ◽  
Promising Tool ◽  
Volume Assessment ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Time Required

AbstractX-ray based lung function (XLF) as a planar method uses dramatically less X-ray dose than computed tomography (CT) but so far lacked the ability to relate its parameters to pulmonary air volume. The purpose of this study was to calibrate the functional constituents of XLF that are biomedically decipherable and directly comparable to that of micro-CT and whole-body plethysmography (WBP). Here, we developed a unique set-up for simultaneous assessment of lung function and volume using XLF, micro-CT and WBP on healthy mice. Our results reveal a strong correlation of lung volumes obtained from radiographic XLF and micro-CT and demonstrate that XLF is superior to WBP in sensitivity and precision to assess lung volumes. Importantly, XLF measurement uses only a fraction of the radiation dose and acquisition time required for CT. Therefore, the redefined XLF approach is a promising tool for preclinical longitudinal studies with a substantial potential of clinical translation.

scholarly journals Specialist pneumonia intervention nurse service improves pneumonia care and outcome

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. e000863
Author(s):  
Robert C Free ◽  
Matthew Richardson ◽  
Camilla Pillay ◽  
Kayleigh Hawkes ◽  
Julie Skeemer ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Quality Improvement ◽  
National Health Service ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Community Acquired Pneumonia ◽  
National Audit ◽  
Mortality Benefit ◽  
Model Of Care ◽  
Spin Period ◽  
National Health Service Trust ◽  
Set Up

BackgroundA specialist pneumonia intervention nursing (SPIN) service was set up across a single National Health Service Trust in an effort to improve clinical outcomes. A quality improvement evaluation was performed to assess the outcomes associated with implementing the service before (2011–2013) and after (2014–2016) service implementation.ResultsThe SPIN service reviewed 38% of community-acquired pneumonia (CAP) admissions in 2014–2016. 82% of these admissions received antibiotic treatment in <4 hours (68.5% in the national audit). Compared with the pre-SPIN period, there was a significant reduction in both 30-day (OR=0.77 (0.70–0.85), p<0.0001) and in-hospital (OR=0.66 (0.60–0.73), p<0.0001) mortality after service implementation, with a review by the service showing the largest independent 30-day mortality benefit (HR=0.60 (0.53–0.67), p<0.0001). There was no change in length of stay (median 6 days).ConclusionImplementation of a SPIN service improved adherence to BTS guidelines and achieved significant reductions in CAP-associated mortality. This enhanced model of care is low cost, highly effective and readily adoptable in secondary care.

scholarly journals Automatic controller to water plants

2010 ◽  
Vol 67 (6) ◽  
pp. 727-730 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leonardo Oliveira Medici ◽  
Hermes Soares da Rocha ◽  
Daniel Fonseca de Carvalho ◽  
Carlos Pimentel ◽  
Ricardo Antunes Azevedo
Keyword(s):  
Water Column ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Low Cost ◽  
Organic Substrate ◽  
Domestic Water ◽  
Plastic Tube ◽  
Soil P ◽  
Set Up ◽  
Water Plants ◽  
Water Tension

Despite the massive demand of water for plant irrigation, there are few devices being used in the automation of this process in agriculture. This work evaluates a simple controller to water plants automatically that can be set up with low cost commercial materials, which are large-scale produced. This controller is composed by a ceramic capsule used in common domestic water filters; a plastic tube around 1.5 m long, and a pressostate used in domestic washing machines. The capsule and the pressostate are connected through the tube so that all parts are filled with water. The ceramic capsule is the sensor of the controller and has to be placed into the plant substrate. The pressostate has to be placed below the sensor and the lower it is, the higher is the water tension to start the irrigation, since the lower is the pressostate the higher is the water column above it and, therefore, the higher is the tension inside the ceramic cup to pull up the water column. The controller was evaluated in the control of drip irrigation for small containers filled with commercial organic substrate or soil. Linear regressions explained the relationship between the position of pressostate and the maximum water tension in the commercial substrate (p < 0.0054) and soil (p < 0.0001). Among the positions of the pressostate from 0.30 to 0.90 m below the sensor, the water tension changed from 1 to 8 kPa for commercial substrate and 4 to 13 kPa for the soil. This simple controller can be useful to grow plants, applying water automatically in function of the water tension of the plant substrate.

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