scholarly journals Multi-level modelling of time-series cross-sectional data reveals the dynamic interaction between ecological threats and democratic development

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (3) ◽  
pp. 191804
Author(s):  
Kodai Kusano ◽  
Markus Kemmelmeier
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Economic Wealth ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Democratic Development ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Pathogen Prevalence ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
The Relationship

What is the relationship between environment and democracy? The framework of cultural evolution suggests that societal development is an adaptation to ecological threats. Pertinent theories assume that democracy emerges as societies adapt to ecological factors such as higher economic wealth, lower pathogen threats, less demanding climates and fewer natural disasters. However, previous research confused within-country processes with between-country processes and erroneously interpreted between-country findings as if they generalize to within-country mechanisms. We analyse a time-series cross-sectional dataset to study the dynamic relationship between environment and democracy (1949–2016), accounting for previous misconceptions in levels of analysis. By separating within-country processes from between-country processes, we find that the relationship between environment and democracy not only differs by country but also depends on the level of analysis. Economic wealth predicts increasing levels of democracy in between-country comparisons, but within-country comparisons show that democracy declines in years when countries become wealthier. This relationship is only prevalent among historically wealthy countries but not among historically poor countries, whose wealth also increased over time. By contrast, pathogen prevalence predicts lower levels of democracy in both between-country and within-country comparisons. Multi-level modelling also confirms that the within-country effect of pathogen prevalence remains robust even after considering a region-level analysis. Longitudinal analyses identifying temporal precedence reveal that not only reductions in pathogen prevalence drive future democracy, but also democracy reduces future pathogen prevalence and increases future wealth. These nuanced results contrast with previous analyses using narrow, cross-sectional data. Overall, our findings illuminate the dynamic process by which environment and democracy shape each other.

Multilevel modeling of time-series cross-sectional data reveals the dynamic interaction between ecological threats and democratic development

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kodai Kusano ◽  
Markus Kemmelmeier
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Multilevel Modeling ◽  
Ecological Factors ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Economic Wealth ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Democratic Development ◽  
Dynamic Relationship ◽  
Pathogen Prevalence ◽  
The Relationship

What is the relationship between environment and democracy? The framework of cultural evolution suggests that societal development is an adaptation to ecological threats. Pertinent theories assume that democracy emerges as societies adapt to ecological factors such as higher economic wealth, lower pathogen threats, less demanding climates, and fewer natural disasters. However, previous research confused within-country processes with between-country processes and erroneously interpreted between-country findings as if they generalize to within-country mechanisms. Here we analyze a time-series cross-sectional dataset to study the dynamic relationship between environment and democracy (1949-2016), accounting for previous misconceptions in levels of analysis. By separating within-country processes from between-country processes, we find that the relationship between environment and democracy not only differs by country but also depends on the level of analysis. Economic wealth predicts increasing levels of democracy in between-country comparisons, but within-country comparisons show that democracy declines in years when countries become wealthier. This relationship is only prevalent among historically wealthy countries but not among historically poor countries, whose wealth also increased over time. In contrast, pathogen prevalence predicts lower levels of democracy in both between-country and within-country comparisons. Multilevel modeling also confirms that the within-country effect of pathogen prevalence remains robust even after considering a region-level analysis. Longitudinal analyses identifying temporal precedence reveal that not only reductions in pathogen prevalence drive future democracy, but also democracy reduces future pathogen prevalence and increases future wealth. These nuanced results contrast with previous analyses using narrow, cross-sectional data. Overall, our findings illuminate the dynamic process by which environment and democracy shape each other.

On the use of structured time-series to detect and test hypotheses about within-lakes relationships

1995 ◽  
Vol 52 (4) ◽  
pp. 799-803 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yves T. Prairie ◽  
C. Tara Marshall
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Empirical Data ◽  
Single System ◽  
Empirical Relationships ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Apparent Relationship ◽  
Field Season ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Over Time ◽  
Chlorophyll Concentrations

Aquatic scientists using empirical relationships developed from point measurements or averages from different lakes often assume that these relationships also apply to individual lakes over time. However, this assumption is difficult to test because the extent of variation within a single system is generally much smaller and the relationship accordingly less defined than across a number of systems. We present a new method to extract empirical relationships from the internal structure of a time-series within a single lake. When we applied the method to an extreme simulation, we were able to recover accurately the parameters of the relationship in spite of the absence of any apparent relationship between the variables. When applied to empirical data for phosphorus and chlorophyll concentrations collected daily over one field season, the estimated structural relationship was nearly identical to that estimated from cross-sectional data even though the empirical trend appeared much shallower and very weak.

scholarly journals Perceived problems with adolescent online gaming: National differences and correlations with substance use

2020 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 629-641
Author(s):  
Julian Strizek ◽  
Josefine Atzendorf ◽  
Ludwig Kraus ◽  
Karin Monshouwer ◽  
Alexandra Puhm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Substance Use ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Individual Substance ◽  
Economic Wealth ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Country Level ◽  
National Differences ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Low Prevalence ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractBackgroundNot much is known about the correlation between gaming problems and substance use across different countries. This paper presents cross-national analyses of different gaming indicators and their relationship to substance use.MethodsBased on data from the 2015 ESPAD study, differences in the relationship between gaming and substance use across 35 countries were analysed using multi-level logistic regression, using substance use as an individual level predictor, economic wealth as a country-level predictor and a combined problem gaming indicator as the outcome.ResultsMulti-level logistic regressions revealed significant correlations between individual substance use and gaming problems, which varied across countries and were moderated by economic wealth. Students who used alcohol, tobacco or cannabis and who lived in high-income countries had a smaller risk of scoring positively on a combined problem gaming indicator than students who used alcohol, tobacco or cannabis and who lived in less prosperous countries.DiscussionDifferent gaming indicators varied substantially across countries, with self-perceived gaming problems being more common in countries with a low prevalence of gaming. Significant cross-level effects demonstrate the need to take the societal context into account when the relationship between problem gaming and substance use is analysed. Prevention measures need to take the fact into account that patterns of substance use among problem gamers vary across countries.

scholarly journals Hubungan pengetahuan gizi ibu dengan kecukupan asupan energi anak usia 1-3 tahun di Desa Mopusi Kecamatan Lolayan Kabupaten Bolaang Mongondow Sulawesi Utara

2016 ◽  
Vol 4 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tasya Watania ◽  
Nelly Mayulu ◽  
Shirley E.S. Kawengian
Keyword(s):  
Energy Intake ◽  
Public Health Problem ◽  
Correlation Study ◽  
Maternal Knowledge ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Poor Countries ◽  
Knowledge Based ◽  
Cross Sectional Design ◽  
And Behavior ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract: Nutritional adequacy or sufficiency of energy in infants is still a public health problem, especially in developing countries and poor countries. As a developing country, Indonesia still has macronutrient deficiencies such as stunting, wasting, and underweight. Maternal level of knowledge about nutrition influences the attitude and behavior in chosing the appropriate and qualified food. This study was aimed to determine the relationship between maternal knowledge and the adequacy of energy intake of toddlers at Mopusi village. This was a correlation study with a cross sectional design. Respondents of this study were mothers who had toddlers aged 1-3 years and lived at Mopusi vollage in September 2014 - December 2014. Data were analyzed by using SPSS. The results showed that there were 90 mothers as respondents. Based on maternal knowledge about nutrition, there were 41 respondents (45.6%) with poor knowledge. Based on adequate intake of energy toddlers, there were 75 toddlers (83%) with less energy intake. The relationship between maternal knowledge about nutrition and the adequacy of energy intake among toddlers showed the correlation coefficient r = 0.06 and p = 0.97. Conclusion: There was no significant correlation between maternal knowledge about nutrition and the adequacy of energy intake among toddlers at Mopusi village. Keywords: mother’s knowledge about nutritions, energy intake, toddlers Abstrak: Kecukupan gizi atau kecukupan energi pada balita masih menjadi masalah kesehatan masyarakat terutama dinegara-negara berkembang dan negara miskin. Sebagai negara berkembang, Indonesia mempunyai masalah defisiensi makronutrien antara lain stunting, wasting dan underweight. Tingkat pengetahuan gizi seseorang ibu berpengaruh terhadap sikap dan perilaku dalam pemilihan makanan. Penelitian ini bertujuan untuk mengetahui hubungan antara pengetahuan ibu dengan kecukupan asupan energi batita di Desa Mopusi Kecamatan Lolayan Kabupaten Bolaang Mongondow Induk. Jenis penelitian ialah korelasi dengan desain potong lintang. Responden penelitian ialah ibu yang memiliki batita usia 1-3 tahun dan berdomisili di Desa Mopusi pada bulan September 2014 – Desember 2014. Data dianalisis menggunakan SPSS. Hasil penelitian mendapatkan sebanyak 41 responden (45,6%) berpengetahuan gizi kurang. Mengenai kecukupan asupan energi dari 90 sampel penelitian terdapat 75 batita (83%) dengan asupan energi kurang. Hubungan pengetahuan gizi ibu dengan kecukupan asupan energi batita mendapatkan koefisien korelasi r= 0,06 dan p= 0,97. Simpulan: Tidak terdapat hubungan bermakna antara pengetahuan gizi ibu dengan kecukupan asupan energi batita di Desa Mopusi.Kata kunci: pengetahuan gizi ibu, asupan energi, batita.

Exclusion in the workplace: a multi-level investigation

2019 ◽  
Vol 13 (3) ◽  
pp. 291-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Olga L. Sharp ◽  
Yisheng Peng ◽  
Steve M. Jex
Keyword(s):  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Interaction Model ◽  
Self Esteem ◽  
Organizational Setting ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Workplace Mistreatment ◽  
Multi Level ◽  
Cross Sectional Design ◽  
The Relationship

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to expand the research on workplace mistreatment and its effects on individual employees while taking into account the organizational setting. This cross-level study explores the interaction between the team Civility climate (CC) and individual experience of exclusion and their combined effect on the target’s organization-based self-esteem (OBSE). Design/methodology/approach In total, 251 individuals nested in 71 teams (mean team size=4.6) completed surveys. A two-way multi-level interaction model was used to test the moderation hypothesis. Findings The cross-level interaction between CC and exclusion was significant, which means that CC influenced the strength of the relationship between exclusion and OBSE. Specifically, it was found that the higher the group-level civility norms, the stronger the negative relationship between exclusion and OBSE. Research limitations/implications The main limitation of this study is its cross-sectional design. All variables were self-reported and collected at one time-point. Originality/value The present study contributes to workplace mistreatment literature by using a multi-level design to examine exclusion as a predictor of OBSE and team CC as a cross-level moderator of this relationship.

scholarly journals Network analysis of firearm movement among US states

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sae Takada ◽  
Kristen Choi ◽  
Shaw Natsui ◽  
Altaf Saadi ◽  
Liza Buchbinder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
State Level ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Similar Model ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Us States ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background: The movement of firearm across state lines may decrease the effectiveness of state-level firearm laws. Yet how state-level firearm policies affect cross-state movement have not yet been widely explored. This study aims to characterize the interstate movement of firearms and its relationship with state-level firearm policies. Methods: Cross-sectional time series network analysis of interstate firearm movement using Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives firearm trace data (2010 -2017). We constructed the network of firearm movement between 50 states. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate the relationship between the number of a state’s firearm laws and number of states for which it was the source of 100 or more firearms, adjusting for state characteristics. We used a similar model to examine the relationship between firearm laws and the number of states for which a given state was the destination of 100 or more firearms.Results: Over the 8-year period, states had an average of 26 (SD 25.2) firearm laws. On average, a state was the source of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 2.7) states and was the destination of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 3.4) states. Greater number of firearm laws was associated with states being the source of 100 or more firearms to fewer states (IRR0.67 per SD, p<0.001), higher odds of not being a source to any states (aOR1.56 per SD, p<0.001), and states being the destination of 100 or more firearms from more states (IRR1.83 per SD, p<0.001).Conclusions: Restrictive firearm policies are associated with less movement of firearms to other states, but with more movement of firearms from outside states. The effectiveness of state-level firearm-restricting laws is complicated by a network of interstate firearm movement.

scholarly journals Network analysis of firearm movement among US states

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sae Takada ◽  
Kristen Choi ◽  
Shaw Natsui ◽  
Altaf Saadi ◽  
Liza Buchbinder ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Network Analysis ◽  
Negative Binomial ◽  
State Level ◽  
Negative Binomial Regression ◽  
Similar Model ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Us States ◽  
Binomial Regression ◽  
The Relationship

Abstract Background: The movement of firearm across state lines may decrease the effectiveness of state-level firearm laws. Yet how state-level firearm policies affect cross-state movement have not yet been widely explored. This study aims to characterize the interstate movement of firearms and its relationship with state-level firearm policies. Methods : Cross-sectional time series network analysis of interstate firearm movement using Bureau of Alcohol, Tobacco, Firearms, and Explosives firearm trace data (2010 -2017). We constructed the network of firearm movement between 50 states. We used zero-inflated negative binomial regression to estimate the relationship between the number of a state’s firearm laws and number of states for which it was the source of 100 or more firearms, adjusting for state characteristics. We used a similar model to examine the relationship between firearm laws and the number of states for which a given state was the destination of 100 or more firearms. Results : Over the 8-year period, states had an average of 26 (SD 25.2) firearm laws. On average, a state was the source of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 2.7) states and was the destination of 100 or more crime-related firearms for 2.2 (SD 3.4) states. Greater number of firearm laws was associated with states being the source of 100 or more firearms to fewer states (IRR0.67 per SD, p<0.001), higher odds of not being a source to any states (aOR1.56 per SD, p<0.001), and states being the destination of 100 or more firearms from more states (IRR1.83 per SD, p<0.001). Conclusions: Restrictive firearm policies are associated with less movement of firearms to other states, but with more movement of firearms from outside states. The effectiveness of state-level firearm-restricting laws is complicated by a network of interstate firearm movement.

LEADER AGE AND NATIONAL CONDITION: A LONGITUDINAL ANALYSIS OF 25 EUROPEAN MONARCHS

1984 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 111-114 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dean Keith Simonton
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Correlation Analysis ◽  
Time Trends ◽  
Partial Correlation ◽  
Linear Time ◽  
Royal Family ◽  
Partial Correlation Analysis ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Foreign Wars

In order to determine the relationship between age and achievement in the politico-military domain, the reigns of 25 long-tenured European absolute monarchs were - analyzed as cross-sectional time series of 238 5-year age periods. Both linear and curvilinear age functions were defined along with variables to control for individual differences, linear time trends, and other potential artifacts. A partial correlation analysis indicated that leader age tends to be negatively correlated with military success in foreign wars and with treaty negotiation, and positively correlated with civil instability at home, whether in the royal family or in the populace. Moreover, some indicators of military and diplomatic success are curvilinear inverted U-functions of leader age, the peak approximately occurring in the leader's 42nd year.

Evaluation theory and its application to military assessments

2019 ◽  
Vol 16 (4) ◽  
pp. 305-322
Author(s):  
Andrew Keith ◽  
Darryl Ahner ◽  
Nicole Curtis
Keyword(s):  
Time Series ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Experimental Designs ◽  
Assessment Practice ◽  
Evaluation Theory ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Evaluation Approaches ◽  
The Relationship

Evaluation theory provides a rigorous foundation for the practice of military operation assessment. Government and industry assessors have used evaluation theory to improve the effectiveness of assessment across a wide range of fields. This article focuses on the relationship between evaluation theory and military assessment. We briefly survey the major evaluation approaches with a focus on connecting the theoretical models to practical security-related applications. These evaluation approaches include expertise-oriented, program-oriented, decision-oriented, and participant-oriented models. Within the overarching framework of these approaches, we consider alternative monitoring and evaluation designs in detail, including descriptive designs (case study, cross-sectional, time-series), quasi-experimental designs (interrupted time-series, comparison group, case study), and experimental designs (posttest-only, pre-post). Then, we discuss quantitative and qualitative methods for analyzing and reporting uncertainty with respect to each design alternative, with an emphasis on mixed-method approaches. Throughout the review, we make the relationship between evaluation theory and operation assessment practice explicit through examples, and we suggest more detailed references where appropriate.

Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document