scholarly journals Weekly population testing could stop this pandemic and prevent the next

2021 ◽  
Vol 8 (7) ◽  
pp. 210468
Author(s):  
Julian Peto
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Economic Damage ◽  
Population Register ◽  
Sample Collection ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Rapid Spread ◽  
The Uk

The rapid spread of the SARS-COV-2 delta variant in the UK despite high vaccination coverage will inevitably accelerate when social restrictions end unless testing and contact tracing become much more effective. To minimize further social and economic damage, the effect on R of introducing weekly population testing as social restrictions are relaxed should be evaluated. The large increase in testing capacity required can be achieved with self-taken saliva samples analysed by RT-LAMP in local testing facilities. The costs and effectiveness can be evaluated in whole-city demonstration studies. A local population register in each city or district is essential to issue weekly invitations, manage sample collection, monitor results and achieve rapid notification of households and other contacts when a test is positive. In the UK, weekly test invitations should be managed, like vaccination invitations, by the NHS, with social and financial support for quarantined households to make self-isolation acceptable. A framework for effective population testing that had been established and evaluated during this pandemic could be rapidly reinstated to suppress the next pandemic while vaccines for a new and perhaps more deadly virus are developed and rolled out.

scholarly journals Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moritz Kraemer ◽  
John McCrone ◽  
Verity Hill ◽  
Sumali Bajaj ◽  
Rosario Evans-Pena ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Population Mixing ◽  
Heterogeneous Landscape ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Context Specific ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

Abstract The Delta variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally causing large outbreaks and resurgences of COVID-19 cases. The emergence of Delta in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 Delta genomes from England in combination with 93,649 global genomes to reconstruct the emergence of Delta, and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England, in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Through analysis of human movement, contact tracing, and virus genomic data, we find that the focus of geographic expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced >1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers from India reduced onward transmission from importations; however the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England had been already seeded before restrictions were introduced. In England, increasing inter-regional travel drove Delta's nationwide dissemination, with some cities receiving >2,000 observable lineage introductions from other regions. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing, not the number of importations, was associated with faster relative growth of Delta. Among US states, we find that regions that previously experienced large waves also had faster Delta growth rates, and a model including interactions between immunity and human behaviour could accurately predict the rise of Delta there. Delta’s invasion dynamics depended on fine scale spatial heterogeneity in immunity and contact patterns and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce transmission of current and future VOCs such as Omicron.

scholarly journals Context-specific emergence and growth of the SARS-CoV-2 Delta variant

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
John T. McCrone ◽  
Verity Hill ◽  
Sumali Bajaj ◽  
Rosario Evans Pena ◽  
Ben C. Lambert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Local Population ◽  
Human Movement ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Global Pattern ◽  
Population Mixing ◽  
Heterogeneous Landscape ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Context Specific ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

The Delta variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 has spread globally causing large outbreaks and resurgences of COVID-19 cases. The emergence of Delta in the UK occurred on the background of a heterogeneous landscape of immunity and relaxation of non-pharmaceutical interventions. Here we analyse 52,992 Delta genomes from England in combination with 93,649 global genomes to reconstruct the emergence of Delta, and quantify its introduction to and regional dissemination across England, in the context of changing travel and social restrictions. Through analysis of human movement, contact tracing, and virus genomic data, we find that the focus of geographic expansion of Delta shifted from India to a more global pattern in early May 2021. In England, Delta lineages were introduced >1,000 times and spread nationally as non-pharmaceutical interventions were relaxed. We find that hotel quarantine for travellers from India reduced onward transmission from importations; however the transmission chains that later dominated the Delta wave in England had been already seeded before restrictions were introduced. In England, increasing inter- regional travel drove Delta's nationwide dissemination, with some cities receiving >2,000 observable lineage introductions from other regions. Subsequently, increased levels of local population mixing, not the number of importations, was associated with faster relative growth of Delta. Among US states, we find that regions that previously experienced large waves also had faster Delta growth rates, and a model including interactions between immunity and human behaviour could accurately predict the rise of Delta there. Delta's invasion dynamics depended on fine scale spatial heterogeneity in immunity and contact patterns and our findings will inform optimal spatial interventions to reduce transmission of current and future VOCs such as Omicron.

scholarly journals Population screening for glaucoma in UK: current recommendations and future directions

Eye ◽  
2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sana Hamid ◽  
Parul Desai ◽  
Pirro Hysi ◽  
Jennifer M. Burr ◽  
Anthony P. Khawaja
Keyword(s):  
Screening Test ◽  
Vision Loss ◽  
Open Angle Glaucoma ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Population Based ◽  
Population Screening ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Future Directions ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Uk

AbstractEffective population screening for glaucoma would enable earlier diagnosis and prevention of irreversible vision loss. The UK National Screening Committee (NSC) recently published a review that examined the viability, effectiveness and appropriateness of a population-based screening programme for primary open-angle glaucoma (POAG). In our article, we summarise the results of the review and discuss some future directions that may enable effective population screening for glaucoma in the future. Two key questions were addressed by the UK NSC review; is there a valid, accurate screening test for POAG, and does evidence exist that screening reduces morbidity from POAG compared with standard care. Six new studies were identified since the previous 2015 review. The review concluded that screening for glaucoma in adults is not recommended because there is no clear evidence for a sufficiently accurate screening test or for better outcomes with screening compared to current care. The next UK NSC review is due to be conducted in 2023. One challenge for POAG screening is that the relatively low disease prevalence results in too many false-positive referrals, even with an accurate test. In the future, targeted screening of a population subset with a higher prevalence of glaucoma may be effective. Recent developments in POAG polygenic risk prediction and deep learning image analysis offer potential avenues to identifying glaucoma-enriched sub-populations. Until such time, opportunistic case finding through General Ophthalmic Services remains the primary route for identification of glaucoma in the UK and greater public awareness of the service would be of benefit.

The spatial dynamics of White-browed Babbler groups in a fragmented agricultural landscape

2002 ◽  
Vol 8 (4) ◽  
pp. 271 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter G. Cale
Keyword(s):  
Home Range ◽  
Breeding Season ◽  
Group Dynamics ◽  
Agricultural Landscape ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Breeding Site ◽  
Home Ranges ◽  
Effective Population ◽  
Study Sites ◽  
Group Movements

White-browed Babbler Pomatostomus superciliosus groups occupying linear strips of vegetation had breeding territories that were smaller in area and had longer linear dimensions than those occupying patches. A group's non-breeding home range was larger than its breeding territory. Groups occupying linear/patch home ranges expanded the linear extent and area of their home ranges more than those within other home range configurations. Some groups moved during the non-breeding season and this was more likely to occur if the group occupied a remnant with a low abundance of invertebrates during summer. Some groups that moved returned prior to the next breeding season, but the majority were never seen again. New groups moved into the study sites and established in vacant home ranges. This suggests that those groups that left the study sites may have established new home ranges elsewhere. Breeding site fidelity was lower in groups that had failed in previous breeding attempts. Therefore, group movements were influenced by the feeding and breeding quality of the habitat. However, the configuration of the local population also influenced group movements with those groups on the edge of a local population being more likely to move than those in the interior. New groups were formed by two processes; group dispersal, where groups generally filled a vacant home range, and group budding, which involved the splitting of a large group. Group dispersal maintained group densities while group budding increased the density of groups in a local population. These two processes were common, producing localized fluctuations in the density of groups. Since babbler groups contain only one breeding pair, changes in group density represent changes in effective population size. Therefore, group dynamics may be important to the persistence of local populations of White-browed Babblers, especially in landscapes that have suffered from habitat loss and fragmentation.

scholarly journals What do users think of the UK’s three COVID-19 contact-tracing apps? A comparative analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. e100320
Author(s):  
Vahid Garousi ◽  
David Cutting
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Apps ◽  
Analysis Data ◽  
End Users ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
User Reviews ◽  
The Public ◽  
Engineering Teams ◽  
Technical Issues ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Right

ObjectivesOur goal was to gain insights into the user reviews of the three COVID-19 contact-tracing mobile apps, developed for the different regions of the UK: ‘NHS COVID-19’ for England and Wales, ‘StopCOVID NI’ for Northern Ireland and ‘Protect Scotland’ for Scotland. Our two research questions are (1) what are the users’ experience and satisfaction levels with the three apps? and (2) what are the main issues (problems) that users have reported about the apps?MethodsWe assess the popularity of the apps and end users’ perceptions based on user reviews in app stores. We conduct three types of analysis (data mining, sentiment analysis and topic modelling) to derive insights from the combined set of 25 583 user reviews of the aforementioned three apps (submitted by users until the end of 2020).ResultsResults show that end users have been generally dissatisfied with the apps under study, except the Scottish app. Some of the major issues that users have reported are high battery drainage and doubts on whether apps are really working.DiscussionTowards the end of 2020, the much-awaited COVID-19 vaccines started to be available, but still, analysing the users’ feedback and technical issues of these apps, in retrospective, is valuable to learn the right lessons to be ready for similar circumstances in future.ConclusionOur results show that more work is needed by the stakeholders behind the apps (eg, apps’ software engineering teams, public-health experts and decision makers) to improve the software quality and, as a result, the public adoption of these apps. For example, they should be designed to be as simple as possible to operate (need for usability).

Vietnam will quicken pace of vaccine roll-out

2021 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Supply Chains ◽  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Gdp Growth ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Roll Out

Significance Meanwhile, its programme to vaccinate the population against the coronavirus is proceeding slowly: fewer than 160,000 of its roughly 98 million people are fully inoculated. The only COVID-19 vaccine administered by the authorities to date is the UK-Swedish AstraZeneca shot, but Hanoi has received and ordered doses of other jabs as well. Impacts The authorities will keep use of Chinese vaccines limited. Quickly widening vaccination coverage will be key to realising the targeted average annual GDP growth of 6.5-7.0% in 2021-25. Vietnam will aim to become a key manufacturing hub for global vaccine supply chains.

scholarly journals Robert Le Rossignol, 1884–1976: Engineer of the ‘Haber’ process

2017 ◽  
Vol 71 (3) ◽  
pp. 263-296 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deri Sheppard
Keyword(s):  
World War Ii ◽  
World War I ◽  
High Power ◽  
Financial Support ◽  
National Policy ◽  
Professional Life ◽  
World War ◽  
Power Sources ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Fritz Haber

In March 1908, the BASF at Ludwigshafen provided financial support to Fritz Haber in his attempt to synthesize ammonia from the elements. The process that now famously bears his name was demonstrated to BASF in July 1909. However, its engineer was Haber's private assistant, Robert Le Rossignol, a young British chemist from the Channel Islands with whom Haber made a generous financial arrangement regarding subsequent royalties. Le Rossignol left Haber in August 1909 as BASF began the industrialization of their process, taking a consultancy at the Osram works in Berlin. He was interned briefly during World War I before being released to resume his occupation. His position eventually led to His Majesty's Government formulating a national policy regarding released British internees in Germany. After the war Le Rossignol spent his professional life at the GEC laboratories in the UK, first making fundamental contributions to the development of high-power radio transmitting valves, then later developing smaller valves used as mobile power sources in the airborne radars of World War II. Through his share of Haber's royalties, Le Rossignol became wealthy. In retirement, he and his wife gave their money away to charitable causes.

scholarly journals How effective was Newfoundland & Labrador’s travel ban to prevent the spread of COVID-19? An agent-based analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dionne M. Aleman ◽  
Benjamin Z. Tham ◽  
Sean J. Wagner ◽  
Justin Semelhago ◽  
Asghar Mohammadi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Spatial Location ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Agent Based ◽  
Individual Level ◽  
Transmission Rates ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
The Uk

AbstractBackgroundTo prevent the spread of COVID-19 in Newfoundland & Labrador (NL), NL implemented a wide travel ban in May 2020. We estimate the effectiveness of this travel ban using a customized agent-based simulation (ABS).MethodsWe built an individual-level ABS to simulate the movements and behaviors of every member of the NL population, including arriving and departing travellers. The model considers individual properties (spatial location, age, comorbidities) and movements between environments, as well as age-based disease transmission with pre-symptomatic, symptomatic, and asymptomatic transmission rates. We examine low, medium, and high travel volume, traveller infection rates, and traveller quarantine compliance rates to determine the effect of travellers on COVID spread, and the ability of contact tracing to contain outbreaks.ResultsInfected travellers increased COVID cases by 2-52x (8-96x) times and peak hospitalizations by 2-49x (8-94x), with (without) contact tracing. Although contact tracing was highly effective at reducing spread, it was insufficient to stop outbreaks caused by travellers in even the best-case scenario, and the likelihood of exceeding contact tracing capacity was a concern in most scenarios. Quarantine compliance had only a small impact on COVID spread; travel volume and infection rate drove spread.InterpretationNL’s travel ban was likely a critically important intervention to prevent COVID spread. Even a small number of infected travellers can play a significant role in introducing new chains of transmission, resulting in exponential community spread and significant increases in hospitalizations, while outpacing contact tracing capabilities. With the presence of more transmissible variants, e.g., the UK variant, prevention of imported cases is even more critical.

scholarly journals Exploring Ethnicity in Hospital Patients with COVID-19 in South London

The Physician ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anna Zatorska ◽  
Niladri Konar ◽  
Pratyasha Saha ◽  
Alice Moseley ◽  
Jessica Denman ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Population Distribution ◽  
Local Population ◽  
Case Series ◽  
Risk Of Death ◽  
Hospitalised Patients ◽  
Hospital Patients ◽  
The Usa ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Ethnicity was found to be an independent risk factor in COVID-19 outcomes in the UK and the USA during the pandemic surge. London, being in the epicentre and having one of the most ethnically diverse population in the UK, was likely to have experienced a much higher intensity of this phenomenon. Black Asian and Minority ethnic groups were more likely to be admitted, more likely to require admission to intensive care, and more likely to die from COVID-19. We undertook an analysis of a case series to explore the impact of ethnicity in hospitalised patients with confirmed COVID-19 during the 3 months of the pandemic. Our results demonstrated that although the proportion of Asian and Black patients were representative of the local population distribution, they were much younger. The prevalence of comorbidities was similar but logistic regression analysis showed that male sex (OR 1.4, 95% CI 1.1-1.9; p=0.02), age (OR 1.03, 95% CI 1.02 - 1.04, p<0.001), those in the ‘Other’ [Odds ratio 1.7 (1.1-2.6) p = 0.01] and ‘Asian’[Odds ratio 1.8 (1.1-2.7) p=0.01], category were at higher risk of death in this cohort. Our results, therefore, are consistent with the overall data from the UK and USA indicating that ethnicity remains a significant additional risk and hence our clinical services must ensure that adequate provision is made to cater to this risk and research must be designed to understand the causes.   

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