Natural disturbance impacts on trade-offs and co-benefits of forest biodiversity and carbon

With accelerating environmental change, understanding forest disturbance impacts on trade-offs between biodiversity and carbon dynamics is of high socio-economic importance. Most studies, however, have assessed immediate or short-term effects of disturbance, while long-term impacts remain poorly understood. Using a tree-ring-based approach, we analysed the effect of 250 years of disturbances on present-day biodiversity indicators and carbon dynamics in primary forests. Disturbance legacies spanning centuries shaped contemporary forest co-benefits and trade-offs, with contrasting, local-scale effects. Disturbances enhanced carbon sequestration, reaching maximum rates within a comparatively narrow post-disturbance window (up to 50 years). Concurrently, disturbance diminished aboveground carbon storage, which gradually returned to peak levels over centuries. Temporal patterns in biodiversity potential were bimodal; the first maximum coincided with the short-term post-disturbance carbon sequestration peak, and the second occurred during periods of maximum carbon storage in complex old-growth forest. Despite fluctuating local-scale trade-offs, forest biodiversity and carbon storage remained stable across the broader study region, and our data support a positive relationship between carbon stocks and biodiversity potential. These findings underscore the interdependencies of forest processes, and highlight the necessity of large-scale conservation programmes to effectively promote both biodiversity and long-term carbon storage, particularly given the accelerating global biodiversity and climate crises.

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The Influence of Atlantic Tropical Cyclones on Drought over the Eastern United States (1980–2007)

Journal of Climate ◽

10.1175/jcli-d-12-00244.1 ◽

2013 ◽

Vol 26 (10) ◽

pp. 3067-3086 ◽

Cited By ~ 35

Author(s):

Jonghun Kam ◽

Justin Sheffield ◽

Xing Yuan ◽

Eric F. Wood

Keyword(s):

United States ◽

Soil Moisture ◽

Tropical Cyclones ◽

Land Surface ◽

Hydrologic Model ◽

Eastern United States ◽

Short Term ◽

Drought Duration ◽

Study Region

Abstract To assess the influence of Atlantic tropical cyclones (TCs) on the eastern U.S. drought regime, the Variable Infiltration Capacity (VIC) land surface hydrologic model was run over the eastern United States forced by the North American Land Data Assimilation System phase 2 (NLDAS-2) analysis with and without TC-related precipitation for the period 1980–2007. A drought was defined in terms of soil moisture as a prolonged period below a percentile threshold. Different duration droughts were analyzed—short term (longer than 30 days) and long term (longer than 90 days)—as well as different drought severities corresponding to the 10th, 15th, and 20th percentiles of soil moisture depth. With TCs, droughts are shorter in duration and of a lesser spatial extent. Tropical cyclones variously impact soil moisture droughts via late drought initiation, weakened drought intensity, and early drought recovery. At regional scales, TCs decreased the average duration of moderately severe short-term and long-term droughts by less than 4 (10% of average drought duration per year) and more than 5 (15%) days yr−1, respectively. Also, they removed at least two short-term and one long-term drought events over 50% of the study region. Despite the damage inflicted directly by TCs, they play a crucial role in the alleviation and removal of drought for some years and seasons, with important implications for water resources and agriculture.

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A decision-support tool to assist muscle-invasive bladder cancer patients choosing between radical cystectomy and chemoradiotherapy.

Journal of Clinical Oncology ◽

10.1200/jco.2018.36.6_suppl.505 ◽

2018 ◽

Vol 36 (6_suppl) ◽

pp. 505-505

Author(s):

Brian Christopher Baumann ◽

Wei-Ting Hwang ◽

Sharadha Srinivasan ◽

Xingmei Wang ◽

Ronac Mamtani ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Bladder Cancer ◽

Decision Support ◽

Decision Support Tool ◽

Short Term ◽

Muscle Invasive Bladder Cancer ◽

Support Tool ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Muscle Invasive ◽

Break Even Point

505 Background: Patients with high-risk muscle-invasive bladder cancer (MIBC) who are borderline medically operable for radical cystectomy (RC) face a difficult decision between RC which has higher short-term treatment-related morbidity/mortality & chemoradiotherapy (CRT) which is better tolerated in the short-term but may have worse long-term cancer control outcomes. There are no existing decision support tools to assist patients & providers in understanding these trade-offs. Herein, we developed a visualization tool to inform patients & providers how the relative risks & benefits of RC & CRT vary over time with respect to overall survival (OS). Methods: We identified cT2-3 N0 M0 urothelial bladder cancer patients ≥65 y/o treated with RC +/- chemo (n = 5981) or definitive-dose CRT after TURBT (n = 793) in the National Cancer Database, 2003-2011. The database was split into a development & validation cohort. Multivariate Cox regression with time-varying hazard ratio was performed to assess pre-treatment factors associated with OS. The inverse probability of treatment weighting method using the propensity score was employed to reduce selection bias. External validation was performed. Visualization tool showing adjusted survival curves based on pre-op patient features was generated with input from patients & a multidisciplinary expert panel. Tool calculates median OS & the “break-even point,” where the short-term OS disadvantage of RC equals the long-term advantage of RC (i.e. the point where the restricted mean survival for RC & CRT are equal). Results: On MVA, significant predictors of OS were age, Charlson Deyo comorbidity index, & cT stage (p < 0.001 for all). Using these results, we iteratively developed a web application that utilizes clinical inputs to generate patient-specific survival curves that display estimated OS differences over time. Median OS, the break-even point, & percent alive at the break-even point are provided. Conclusions: This is the first decision-support tool developed to assist high-risk borderline operable MIBC patients & their providers in understanding the short-term & long-term trade-offs between RC & CRT. Additional testing is underway.

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PROGRESS AND REGRESS: UNDERSTANDING COMPLEX SOCIAL MEASURES AND THEIR TRADE-OFFS

Social Philosophy and Policy ◽

10.1017/s0265052517000255 ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 34 (2) ◽

pp. 164-189

Author(s):

Daniel Austin Green ◽

Roberta Q. Herzberg

Keyword(s):

Income Inequality ◽

Social Values ◽

Scientific Progress ◽

Well Being ◽

Moral Progress ◽

Short Term ◽

Economic Progress ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Global And Local

Abstract:What is progress and what is not progress? We can talk about progress in lots of different arenas; we will focus primarily on economic and scientific progress, but also make brief reference to cultural and moral progress. In our discussion, we want to distinguish, especially, between overall, long-term progress and narrower, shorter-term progress or regress. We will refer to these as “global” and “local” progress, respectively. Of course, one can also regress; therefore, we will also look at instances where progress, along some dimension, slows or even moves backwards. Generally, such regress is local, and often still in a context of broader, global progress. In scientific progress, for example, there are many instances of short-term progress which, if not completely discarded or disproved, are at least substantially modified or fundamentally challenged. And yet, those research paths, even when later abandoned, still contributed to the overall progress of the field. In that sense, the regress (that is, rejection or modification of previous theories) is corrected by, but not in conflict with, the overall progress. In the case of economic progress, the concept of regress usually takes on a different form in which things that aren’t advancing progress don’t necessarily stop it, but are simply retarding progress — that is, making the rate of progress less efficient. The consequence, we suggest, is that when talking about economic progress, objections to certain consequences of economic progress (for instance, income inequality — a type of regress, in our terminology) should not be cordoned off and dealt with independently, but should be incorporated into the way we think about economic progress itself — as instances of local regress within a context of global progress. We explore the effects of these different relations between progress and regress to suggest some of the challenges those seeking to broaden the standard measure, GDP, to incorporate other social values of well-being will face moving forward.

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OPTIMAL CLIMATE POLICY IN 3D: MITIGATION, CARBON REMOVAL, AND SOLAR GEOENGINEERING

Climate Change Economics ◽

10.1142/s2010007821500081 ◽

2021 ◽

pp. 2150008

Author(s):

MARIIA BELAIA ◽

JUAN B. MORENO-CRUZ ◽

DAVID W. KEITH

Keyword(s):

Climate Model ◽

Integrated Assessment Model ◽

Assessment Model ◽

Short Term ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Solar Geoengineering ◽

Optimal Climate Policy ◽

The Cost ◽

Far Future

We introduce solar geoengineering (SG) and carbon dioxide removal (CDR) into an integrated assessment model to analyze the trade-offs between mitigation, SG, and CDR. We propose a novel empirical parameterization of SG that disentangles its efficacy, calibrated with climate model results, from its direct impacts. We use a simple parameterization of CDR that decouples it from the scale of baseline emissions. We find that (a) SG optimally delays mitigation and lowers the use of CDR, which is distinct from moral hazard; (b) SG is deployed prior to CDR while CDR drives the phasing out of SG in the far future; (c) SG deployment in the short term is relatively independent of discounting and of the long-term trade-off between SG and CDR over time; (d) small amounts of SG sharply reduce the cost of meeting a [Formula: see text]C target and the costs of climate change, even with a conservative calibration for the efficacy of SG.

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Older eastern white pine trees and stands sequester carbon for many decades and maximize cumulative carbon

10.1101/2020.10.27.358044 ◽

2020 ◽

Author(s):

Robert T. Leverett ◽

Susan A. Masino ◽

William R. Moomaw

Keyword(s):

New England ◽

Carbon Storage ◽

Safety Net ◽

White Pine ◽

Eastern White Pine ◽

Old Growth ◽

Old Growth Forest ◽

Large Trees ◽

Natural Climate

AbstractPre-settlement New England was heavily forested, with some trees exceeding 2 m in diameter. New England’s forests have regrown since farm abandonment and represent what is arguably the most successful regional reforestation on record; the region has recently been identified as part of the “Global Safety Net.” Remnants and groves of primary “old-growth” forest demonstrate that native tree species can live for hundreds of years and continue to add to the biomass and structural and ecological complexity of forests. Forests are an essential natural climate solution for accumulating and storing atmospheric CO2, and some studies emphasize young, fast-growing trees and forests whereas others highlight high carbon storage and accumulation rates in old trees and intact forests. To address this question directly within New England we leveraged long-term, accurate field measurements along with volume modeling of individual trees and intact stands of eastern white pines (Pinus strobus) and compared our results to models developed by the U.S. Forest Service. Our major findings complement, extend, and clarify previous findings and are three-fold: 1) intact eastern white pine forests continue to sequester carbon and store high cumulative carbon above ground; 2) large trees dominate above-ground carbon storage and can sequester significant amounts of carbon for hundreds of years; 3) productive pine stands can continue to sequester high amounts of carbon for well over 150 years. Because the next decades are critical in addressing the climate crisis, and the vast majority of New England forests are less than 100 years old, and can at least double their cumulative carbon, a major implication of this work is that maintaining and accumulating maximal carbon in existing forests – proforestation - is a powerful near-term regional climate solution. Furthermore, old and old-growth forests are rare, complex and highly dynamic and biodiverse, and dedication of some forests to proforestation will also protect natural selection, ecosystem integrity and full native biodiversity long-term. In sum, strategic policies that grow and protect existing forests in New England will optimize a proven, low cost, natural climate solution for meeting climate and biodiversity goals now and in the critical coming decades.

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Forest Carbon Management: a Review of Silvicultural Practices and Management Strategies Across Boreal, Temperate and Tropical Forests

Current Forestry Reports ◽

10.1007/s40725-021-00151-w ◽

2021 ◽

Author(s):

Abderrahmane Ameray ◽

Yves Bergeron ◽

Osvaldo Valeria ◽

Miguel Montoro Girona ◽

Xavier Cavard

Keyword(s):

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Forest Management ◽

Carbon Storage ◽

Forest Conservation ◽

Management Strategies ◽

Forest Carbon ◽

Soil Carbon Storage ◽

Old Growth Forest ◽

Intensive Forest Management ◽

Forest Carbon Sequestration

Abstract Purpose of Review Carbon sequestration and storage in forest ecosystems is often promoted as a solution for reducing CO2 concentrations in the atmosphere. Yet, our understanding is lacking regarding how forest management strategies affect the net removal of greenhouse gases and contribute to climate change mitigation. Here, we present a review of carbon sequestration and stock dynamics, following three strategies that are widely used in boreal, temperate and tropical forests: extensive forest management, intensive forest management and old-growth forest conservation. Recent Findings Several studies show that specific forest management strategies can improve carbon sequestration capacity and soil carbon storage. Within these studies, the old-growth forest conservation strategy results in greater carbon storage in soils than do extensive and intensive forest management. Intensive forest management enhances forest carbon sequestration capacity through afforestation using fast-growing species, mechanical soil preparation from low to moderate intensity and N fertilization. Extensive forest management is an intermediate compromise regarding carbon sequestration and soil carbon storage, between conservation and intensive forest management strategies. With respect to silvicultural treatments, partial cutting is a practice that increases forest carbon sequestration rates and maintains higher carbon storage in soils compared to clear-cuts. Each silvicultural practice that is discussed in this review showed a similar effect on forest carbon in all biomes, although the magnitude of these effects differs mainly in terms of heterotrophic respiration. Summary To achieve sustainable management and fulfill industrial demand and profitability, specific gaps must be dealt with to improve our scientific knowledge regarding forest carbon sequestration in a climate change context, mainly through the integration of the three aforementioned strategies in a functional zoning approach at the landscape scale. We present a review with promising strategies for guiding sustainable forest management in such a global context.

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Negotiation in Foreign Policy

Oxford Research Encyclopedia of Politics ◽

10.1093/acrefore/9780190228637.013.453 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Kristopher Ramsay

Keyword(s):

Foreign Policy ◽

International Relations ◽

Armed Conflict ◽

International Politics ◽

The Political ◽

Short Term ◽

Trade Offs ◽

Alternative Means

Foreign policy often involves two or more countries finding a path from contested interests to a peaceful agreement that incorporates the political and security desires of the relevant parties. In almost every case, the possibility of armed conflict as an alternative means of settling disagreements casts its shadow. Recent research on foreign policy can be well understood as following the view, first articulated by Thomas C. Schelling, that all international relations is really about negotiations and bargaining. This worldview brings a number of aspects of international politics into a natural and coherent framework. We can understand what leads countries to fail to reach peaceful solutions when disagreements arise, how the issues on the agenda influence the content and success of negotiations, and how domestic constituencies shape the ability of leaders to make agreements. Equally important, we can understand the trade-offs between short-term negotiating advantages and long-term issues of reputation.

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Carbon dynamics at frost-patterned tundra driven by long-term vegetation change rather than by short-term non-growing season warming

Biogeochemistry ◽

10.1007/s10533-017-0385-y ◽

2017 ◽

Vol 136 (1) ◽

pp. 103-117 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Maria Väisänen ◽

Eveline J. Krab ◽

Ellen Dorrepaal

Keyword(s):

Vegetation Change ◽

Growing Season ◽

Carbon Dynamics ◽

Short Term

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Soil carbon management in large-scale Earth system modelling: implications for crop yields and nitrogen leaching

Earth System Dynamics ◽

10.5194/esd-6-745-2015 ◽

2015 ◽

Vol 6 (2) ◽

pp. 745-768 ◽

Cited By ~ 19

Author(s):

S. Olin ◽

M. Lindeskog ◽

T. A. M. Pugh ◽

G. Schurgers ◽

D. Wårlind ◽

...

Keyword(s):

Land Use ◽

Ecosystem Services ◽

Carbon Sequestration ◽

Soil Carbon ◽

Carbon Storage ◽

Crop Yields ◽

Nitrogen Leaching ◽

Future Climate Change ◽

Climate Change Scenarios ◽

Trade Offs

Abstract. Croplands are vital ecosystems for human well-being and provide important ecosystem services such as crop yields, retention of nitrogen and carbon storage. On large (regional to global)-scale levels, assessment of how these different services will vary in space and time, especially in response to cropland management, are scarce. We explore cropland management alternatives and the effect these can have on future C and N pools and fluxes using the land-use-enabled dynamic vegetation model LPJ-GUESS (Lund–Potsdam–Jena General Ecosystem Simulator). Simulated crop production, cropland carbon storage, carbon sequestration and nitrogen leaching from croplands are evaluated and discussed. Compared to the version of LPJ-GUESS that does not include land-use dynamics, estimates of soil carbon stocks and nitrogen leaching from terrestrial to aquatic ecosystems were improved. Our model experiments allow us to investigate trade-offs between these ecosystem services that can be provided from agricultural fields. These trade-offs are evaluated for current land use and climate and further explored for future conditions within the two future climate change scenarios, RCP (Representative Concentration Pathway) 2.6 and 8.5. Our results show that the potential for carbon sequestration due to typical cropland management practices such as no-till management and cover crops proposed in previous studies is not realised, globally or over larger climatic regions. Our results highlight important considerations to be made when modelling C–N interactions in agricultural ecosystems under future environmental change and the effects these have on terrestrial biogeochemical cycles.

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