Uncertainty in science and its role in climate policy

Policy-making is usually about risk management. Thus, the handling of uncertainty in science is central to its support of sound policy-making. There is value in scientists engaging in a deep conversation with policy-makers and others, not merely ‘delivering’ results or analyses and then playing no further role. Communicating the policy relevance of different varieties of uncertainty, including imprecision, ambiguity, intractability and indeterminism, is an important part of this conversation. Uncertainty is handled better when scientists engage with policy-makers. Climate policy aims both to alter future risks (particularly via mitigation) and to take account of and respond to relevant remaining risks (via adaptation) in the complex causal chain that begins and ends with individuals. Policy-making profits from learning how to shift the distribution of risks towards less dangerous impacts, even if the probability of events remains uncertain. Immediate value lies not only in communicating how risks may change with time and how those risks may be changed by action, but also in projecting how our understanding of those risks may improve with time (via science) and how our ability to influence them may advance (via technology and policy design). Guidance on the most urgent places to gather information and realistic estimates of when to expect more informative answers is of immediate value, as are plausible estimates of the risk of delaying action. Risk assessment requires grappling with probability and ambiguity (uncertainty in the Knightian sense) and assessing the ethical, logical, philosophical and economic underpinnings of whether a target of ‘50 per cent chance of remaining under +2 ° C' is either ‘right’ or ‘safe’. How do we better stimulate advances in the difficult analytical and philosophical questions while maintaining foundational scientific work advancing our understanding of the phenomena? And provide immediate help with decisions that must be made now?

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Identifying Nanotechnological Systems of Innovation

Materials Science and Engineering ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-1798-6.ch029 ◽

2017 ◽

pp. 742-770 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Flávio J. M. Peixoto

Keyword(s):

Policy Making ◽

Policy Design ◽

Innovation Policy ◽

Innovation Process ◽

Analytical Framework ◽

Systems Of Innovation ◽

Policy Makers ◽

The Public ◽

Innovation Indicators ◽

Rare Opportunity

Developments in nanotechnology have drawn the attention of governments, industry, academia and the public for their potential industrial benefits and their future trends within the innovation domain. The perception that nanotechnology promises important changes holds a rare opportunity to policy-making in its early stages. Understanding nanotechnology innovation process represents a crucial element for designing and implementing relevant, coherent and adequate innovation policy. This chapter proposes the development of an analytical framework to investigate nanotechnology paths. Results suggested that what has been generically labeled as ‘nanotechnology' actually comprises a set of different, but complementary, technologies that may be represented as particular ‘nanotechnological systems of innovation' to be used for analytical and policy designing purposes. The study attempts to contribute for the development of nanotechnology innovation indicators aiming to provide policy-makers with helpful data to support innovation policy design and foster nanotechnology development in Brazil.

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Political Action, Error and Failure: The Epistemological Limits of Complexity

Political Studies ◽

10.1111/j.1467-9248.2011.00901.x ◽

2011 ◽

Vol 60 (1) ◽

pp. 3-19 ◽

Cited By ~ 30

Author(s):

Adrian Little

Keyword(s):

Complexity Theory ◽

Complex Terrain ◽

Policy Making ◽

Political Action ◽

Policy Design ◽

Evidence Based ◽

Risk Averse ◽

Policy Makers ◽

The Subject ◽

Epistemological Obstacles

The trend in government and public policy towards evidence-based policy making has recently been the subject of criticism from authors such as Ian Sanderson who argue that the insights of complexity theory undermine the claims of evidence that these forms of policy design advocate. While taking on board the primary claim of this critique, this article examines the contribution of complexity theory in more detail to suggest that the epistemological obstacles that complexity science identifies also challenge the kind of pragmatic, deliberative model that Sanderson prefers. Instead, it examines the work of Michael Freeden on failure and Michel Foucault on error to demonstrate the ways in which approaches that are less wedded to epistemological certainty can enable policy makers to think more creatively about the complex terrain they must navigate and develop more innovative and less risk-averse forms of political action.

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Identifying Nanotechnological Systems of Innovation

Handbook of Research on Driving Competitive Advantage through Sustainable, Lean, and Disruptive Innovation - Advances in Business Strategy and Competitive Advantage ◽

10.4018/978-1-5225-0135-0.ch013 ◽

2016 ◽

pp. 305-333

Author(s):

Flávio J. M. Peixoto

Keyword(s):

Policy Making ◽

Policy Design ◽

Innovation Policy ◽

Innovation Process ◽

Analytical Framework ◽

Systems Of Innovation ◽

Policy Makers ◽

The Public ◽

Innovation Indicators ◽

Rare Opportunity

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External Validity and Policy Adaptation: From Impact Evaluation to Policy Design

The World Bank Research Observer ◽

10.1093/wbro/lky010 ◽

2019 ◽

Vol 35 (2) ◽

pp. 158-191 ◽

Cited By ~ 1

Author(s):

Martin J Williams

Keyword(s):

External Validity ◽

Impact Evaluation ◽

Policy Making ◽

Policy Design ◽

Theory Of Change ◽

Local Context ◽

Evidence Based ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Policy Adaptation ◽

Main Challenge

Abstract With the growing number of impact evaluations worldwide, the question of how to apply this evidence in policy making processes has arguably become the main challenge for evidence-based policy making. How can policy makers predict whether a policy will have the same impact in their context as it did elsewhere, and how should this influence the policy’s design and implementation? This paper suggests that failures of external validity (both in transporting and scaling up policy) can be understood as arising from an interaction between a policy’s theory of change and a dimension of the context in which it is being implemented. The paper surveys existing approaches to analyzing external validity, and suggests that there has been more focus on the generalizability of impact evaluation results than on the applicability of evidence to specific contexts. To help fill this gap, the study develops a method of “mechanism mapping” that maps a policy’s theory of change against salient contextual assumptions to identify external validity problems and suggest appropriate policy adaptations. In deciding whether and how to adapt a policy, there is a fundamental informational trade-off between the strength of evidence on the policy from other contexts and the policy maker’s information about the local context.

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Prioritizing Strategic Factors of Creative Tourism Industry in Iran by Analytic Network Process (ANP)

Event Management ◽

10.3727/152599519x15506259855977 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 24 (5) ◽

pp. 553-565

Author(s):

Reza Kiani Mavi ◽

Hamed Gheibdoust ◽

Ahmad A. Khanfar

Keyword(s):

Policy Making ◽

Analytic Network Process ◽

Influential Factors ◽

Tourism Industry ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Business Support ◽

Network Process ◽

Strategic Factors ◽

Strategic Policy ◽

Strategic Policies

Nowadays, it is obvious that creative tourism industry has become very essential for countries and societies; therefore, governments work on constituting policies in order to develop this industry. To be successful in improving creative tourism industry, governments should identify the influential factors and focus on ones that are more important rather than investing a bit on many different factors. Because of the interrelations among factors, this research is aiming to prioritize factors that influence strategic policies of creative tourism industry in Iran using analytic network process (ANP). Data were collected during the period of May 2017 to February 2018. Participants in this research are 13 tourism experts with more than 10 years' experience in the field. Results show that the most influential criterion is "business support" and the most influential subcriterion is "supporting midsize businesses." This study helps policy makers to improve creative tourism by emphasizing on those factors that have high priority from the viewpoint of strategic policy-making.

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Sentencing Policy as a Force for Social Cohesion

10.1093/oso/9780198718895.003.0003 ◽

2018 ◽

Author(s):

Ralph Henham

Keyword(s):

Social Cohesion ◽

Policy Making ◽

Social Values ◽

Social Reality ◽

Social Forces ◽

Top Down ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Normative Approach ◽

The Social ◽

Sentencing Policy

This chapter sets out the case for adopting a normative approach to conceptualizing the social reality of sentencing. It argues that policy-makers need to comprehend how sentencing is implicated in realizing state values and take greater account of the social forces that diminish the moral credibility of state sponsored punishment. The chapter reflects on the problems of relating social values to legal processes such as sentencing and argues that crude notions of ‘top down’ or ‘bottom up’ approaches to policy-making should be replaced by a process of contextualized policy-making. Finally, the chapter stresses the need for sentencing policy to reflect those moral attachments that bind citizens together in a relational or communitarian sense. It concludes by exploring these assertions in the light of the sentencing approach taken by the courts following the English riots of 2011.

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Science Informed Policies for Managing Water

Hydrology ◽

10.3390/hydrology8020066 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 8 (2) ◽

pp. 66

Author(s):

Daniel P. Loucks

Keyword(s):

Water Management ◽

Water Resource ◽

Policy Making ◽

Water Resource Management ◽

Information Policy ◽

Management Policy ◽

Multiple Impacts ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Science Policy Interface ◽

Management Policies

Water resource management policies impact how water supplies are protected, collected, stored, treated, distributed, and allocated among multiple users and purposes. Water resource policies influence the decisions made regarding the siting, design, and operation of infrastructure needed to achieve the underlying goals of these policies. Water management policies vary by region depending on particular hydrologic, economic, environmental, and social conditions, but in all cases they will have multiple impacts affecting these conditions. Science can provide estimates of various economic, ecologic, environmental, and even social impacts of alternative policies, impacts that determine how effective any particular policy may be. These impact estimates can be used to compare and evaluate alternative policies in the search for identifying the best ones to implement. Among all scientists providing inputs to policy making processes are analysts who develop and apply models that provide these estimated impacts and, possibly, their probabilities of occurrence. However, just producing them is not a guarantee that they will be considered by policy makers. This paper reviews various aspects of the science-policy interface and factors that can influence what information policy makers need from scientists. This paper suggests some ways scientists and analysts can contribute to and inform those making water management policy decisions. Brief descriptions of some water management policy making examples illustrate some successes and failures of science informing and influencing policy.

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The Participation of Senior Citizens in Policy-Making: Patterning Initiatives in Europe

International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health ◽

10.3390/ijerph18010034 ◽

2020 ◽

Vol 18 (1) ◽

pp. 34

Author(s):

Roberto Falanga ◽

Andreas Cebulla ◽

Andrea Principi ◽

Marco Socci

Keyword(s):

Case Studies ◽

Policy Making ◽

Civic Participation ◽

Policy Design ◽

Senior Citizens ◽

National Policy ◽

Future Research ◽

Participatory Approaches ◽

Aging Policy ◽

Older Citizens

Worldwide, active aging policy calls for greater participation of senior citizens in the social, economic, and political realms. Despite emerging evidence of initiatives engaging senior citizens in social activities, little is known about the use of participatory approaches in the design and/or implementation of policies that matter to older citizens. This article identifies initiatives facilitating the civic participation of older people in policy-making in European Union member and associate states, drawing on a review of the literature, consultation of national policy experts, and exemplary case studies. Four main patterns of senior civic participation are identified: adopting consultative or co-decisional participatory approaches in policy design or policy implementation. The four are represented to varying degrees at different geographical levels (national, regional, local), with different actor configurations (appointed, elected/nominated, corporate representation), and with varying degree of institutionalization (temporary/permanent). Case studies illustrate approaches taken to enhance the quality and effectiveness of public services for senior citizens. Future research should strengthen this line of enquiry to cast further light on conditions facilitating the civic participation of senior citizens.

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Policy-relevant insights for regional renewable energy deployment

Energy Sustainability and Society ◽

10.1186/s13705-021-00295-4 ◽

2021 ◽

Vol 11 (1) ◽

Author(s):

Carla De Laurentis ◽

Peter J. G. Pearson

Keyword(s):

Renewable Energy ◽

Policy Design ◽

Comparative Case Study ◽

Geographical Differences ◽

Governance Capacity ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Case Study Analysis ◽

Documentary Analysis ◽

The Uk

Abstract Background The paper explores how regional actors engage with energy systems, flows and infrastructures in order to meet particular goals and offers a fine-tuned analysis of how differences arise, highlighting the policy-relevant insights that emerge. Methods Using a novel framework, the research performs a comparative case study analysis of three regions in Italy and two of the devolved territories of the UK, Wales and Scotland, drawing on interviews and documentary analysis. Results The paper shows that acknowledging the socio-materialities of renewable energy allows a fine-tuned analysis of how institutions, governance and infrastructure can enable/constrain energy transitions and policy effectiveness at local and regional levels. The heuristic adopted highlights (i) the institutions that matter for renewable energy and their varied effects on regional renewable energy deployment; (ii) the range of agencies involved in strategically establishing, contesting and reproducing institutions, expectations, visions and infrastructure as renewable energy deployment unfolds at the regional level and (iii) the nature and extent of infrastructure requirements for and constraints on renewable energy delivery and how they affect the regional capacity to shape infrastructure networks and facilitate renewable energy deployment. The paper shows how the regions investigated developed their institutional and governance capacity and made use of targets, energy visions and spatial planning to promote renewable energy deployment. It shows that several mediating factors emerge from examining the interactions between regional physical resource endowments and energy infrastructure renewal and expansion. The analysis leads to policy-relevant insights into what makes for renewable energy deployment. Conclusion The paper contributes to research that demonstrates the role of institutional variations and governance as foundations for geographical differences in the adoption of renewable energy, and carries significant implications for policy thinking and implementation. It shows why and how policy-makers need to be more effective in balancing the range of goals/interests for renewable energy deployment with the peculiarities and specificities of the regional contexts and their infrastructures. The insights presented help to explain how energy choices and outcomes are shaped in particular places, how differences arise and operate in practice, and how they need to be taken into account in policy design, policy-making and implementation.

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Policy analysis in state governments in Mexico

Policy Analysis in Mexico ◽

10.1332/policypress/9781447329152.003.0008 ◽

2017 ◽

Author(s):

Juan C. Olmeda

Keyword(s):

Policy Analysis ◽

Mexico City ◽

Policy Making ◽

State Level ◽

Executive Branch ◽

State Governments ◽

Policy Makers ◽

Mexican State ◽

Policy Making Process ◽

Mexican Politics

State governments have acquired a central role in Mexican politics and policy making during the last decades as a result of both democratization and decentralization. Nowadays state governments not only concentrate a significant portion of prerogatives and responsibilities in terms of service delivery but also control a substantial share of public spending. However, no systematic studies have been developed in order to understand how state governments function. This chapter provides an overview on how policies are crafted at the subnational (state) level in Mexico, the main actors taking place in the process and the way in which professional knowledge and advice influence policy makers. As it argues, the central role in the policy making process is played by the executive branch, being the governors the ones who have the final word in most important decisions. In addition, secretaries also concentrate power in particular policy areas. As a result of the lack of a professional civil service, however, a significant portion of policy analysis is performed by non-governmental actors (universities, NGOs and private firms). The chapter applies this framework to analyze a particular Mexican state, namely Mexico City.

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