scholarly journals Environmental prediction, risk assessment and extreme events: adaptation strategies for the developing world

2011 ◽  
Vol 369 (1956) ◽  
pp. 4768-4797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter J. Webster ◽  
Jun Jian
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fresh Water ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Water Resource Management ◽  
Developing World ◽  
Rural Poverty ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Environmental Prediction

The uncertainty associated with predicting extreme weather events has serious implications for the developing world, owing to the greater societal vulnerability to such events. Continual exposure to unanticipated extreme events is a contributing factor for the descent into perpetual and structural rural poverty. We provide two examples of how probabilistic environmental prediction of extreme weather events can support dynamic adaptation. In the current climate era, we describe how short-term flood forecasts have been developed and implemented in Bangladesh. Forecasts of impending floods with horizons of 10 days are used to change agricultural practices and planning, store food and household items and evacuate those in peril. For the first time in Bangladesh, floods were anticipated in 2007 and 2008, with broad actions taking place in advance of the floods, grossing agricultural and household savings measured in units of annual income. We argue that probabilistic environmental forecasts disseminated to an informed user community can reduce poverty caused by exposure to unanticipated extreme events. Second, it is also realized that not all decisions in the future can be made at the village level and that grand plans for water resource management require extensive planning and funding. Based on imperfect models and scenarios of economic and population growth, we further suggest that flood frequency and intensity will increase in the Ganges, Brahmaputra and Yangtze catchments as greenhouse-gas concentrations increase. However, irrespective of the climate-change scenario chosen, the availability of fresh water in the latter half of the twenty-first century seems to be dominated by population increases that far outweigh climate-change effects. Paradoxically, fresh water availability may become more critical if there is no climate change.

scholarly journals Awareness of climate change's impacts and motivation to adapt are not enough to drive action: A look of Puerto Rican farmers after Hurricane Maria

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. e0244512
Author(s):  
Luis Alexis Rodríguez-Cruz ◽  
Meredith T. Niles
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Puerto Rican ◽  
Adaptive Capacity ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Climate Adaptation ◽  
Psychological Distance ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events

Understanding how perceptions around motivation, capacity, and climate change’s impacts relate to the adoption of adaptation practices in light of experiences with extreme weather events is important in assessing farmers’ adaptive capacity. However, very little of this work has occurred in islands, which may have different vulnerabilities and capacities for adaptation. Data of surveyed farmers throughout Puerto Rico after Hurricane Maria (n = 405, 87% response rate) were used in a structural equation model to explore the extent to which their adoption of agricultural practices and management strategies was driven by perceptions of motivation, vulnerability, and capacity as a function of their psychological distance of climate change. Our results show that half of farmers did not adopt any practice or strategy, even though the majority perceived themselves capable and motivated to adapt to climate change, and understood their farms to be vulnerable to future extreme events. Furthermore, adoption was neither linked to these adaptation perceptions, nor to their psychological distance of climate change, which we found to be both near and far. Puerto Rican farmers’ showed a broad awareness of climate change’s impacts both locally and globally in different dimensions (temporal, spatial, and social), and climate distance was not linked to reported damages from Hurricane Maria or to previous extreme weather events. These results suggest that we may be reaching a tipping point for extreme events as a driver for climate belief and action, especially in places where there is a high level of climate change awareness and continued experience of compounded impacts. Further, high perceived capacity and motivation are not linked to actual adaptation behaviors, suggesting that broadening adaptation analyses beyond individual perceptions and capacities as drivers of climate adaptation may give us a better understanding of the determinants to strengthen farmers’ adaptive capacity.

Has the climate become more variable or extreme? Progress 1992-2006

2007 ◽  
Vol 31 (1) ◽  
pp. 77-87 ◽  
Author(s):  
Neville Nicholls ◽  
Lisa Alexander
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Climate Extremes ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Intergovernmental Panel ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Weather And Climate ◽  
Analyse Data ◽  
Climate Events

In 1990 and 1992 the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC), in its first assessment of climate change and its supplement, did not consider whether extreme weather events had increased in frequency and/or intensity globally, because data were too sparse to make this a worthwhile exercise. In 1995 the IPCC, in its second assessment, did examine this question, but concluded that data and analyses of changes in extreme events were ‘not comprehensive’and thus the question could not be answered with any confidence. Since then, concerted multinational efforts have been undertaken to collate, quality control, and analyse data on weather and climate extremes. A comprehensive examination of the question of whether extreme events have changed in frequency or intensity is now more feasible than it was 15 years ago. The processes that have led to this position are described, along with current understanding of possible changes in some extreme weather and climate events.

Extreme weather events on seasonal and intraseasonal timescales in the context of climate change

2021 ◽  
pp. 36-57
Author(s):  
D.B. Kiktev ◽  
◽  
E.N. Kruglova ◽  
I.A. Kulikova ◽  
A.V. Muravev ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Long Range ◽  
Northern Hemisphere ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Forecasts ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Precipitation Regimes

The automatic identification of objects associated with various extreme weather events (EWE) on seasonal and intraseasonal timescales is done based on surface air temperature and precipitation datasets (NCEP/NCAR daily reanalysis fields for the Northern Hemisphere). Some features of the spatial and temporal variability of the extreme characteristics of temperature and precipitation regimes are considered in the context of climate change. An inventory of extreme events is carried out for the Northern Hemisphere in 1981–2019 depending on the spatial extent, duration, and intensity of EWEs. The years with the most striking events are noted, and a brief description of their specific features is given. The results will be used to analyze the EWE predictability in the context of the verification of long-range weather forecasts. Keywords: extreme weather events, climate change, identification of extreme events, long-range weather forecasts

scholarly journals When climate change is not blamed: the politics of disaster attribution in international perspective

2019 ◽  
Vol 158 (2) ◽  
pp. 213-233
Author(s):  
Myanna Lahsen ◽  
Gabriela de Azevedo Couto ◽  
Irene Lorenzoni
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extreme Events ◽  
Disaster Preparedness ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Climate Mitigation ◽  
Preventive Action ◽  
Policy Action ◽  
Weather Events

AbstractAnalyzing the politics and policy implications in Brazil of attributing extreme weather events to climate change, we argue for greater place-based sensitivity in recommendations for how to frame extreme weather events relative to climate change. Identifying geographical limits of current recommendations to emphasize the climate role in such events, we explore Brazilian framings of the two tragic national disasters, as apparent in newspaper coverage of climate change. We find that a variety of contextual factors compel environmental leaders and scientists in Brazil to avoid and discourage highlighting the role of climate change in national extreme events. Against analysts’ general deficit-finding assumptions, we argue that the Brazilian framing tendency reflects sound strategic, socio-environmental reasoning, and discuss circumstances in which attributing such events to climate change—and, by extension, attribution science—can be ineffective for policy action on climate change and other socio-environmental issues in need of public pressure and preventive action. The case study has implications beyond Brazil by begging greater attention to policies and politics in particular places before assuming that attribution science and discursive emphasis on the climate role in extreme events are the most strategic means of achieving climate mitigation and disaster preparedness. Factors at play in Brazil might also structure extreme events attribution politics in other countries, not least some other countries of the global South.

scholarly journals Impacts of compound extreme weather events on ozone in the present and future

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Junxi Zhang ◽  
Yang Gao ◽  
Kun Luo ◽  
L. Ruby Leung ◽  
Yang Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Heat Waves ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Low Wind Speed ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Us ◽  
The Future ◽  
Compound Events ◽  
Ozone Episodes

Abstract. The Weather Research and Forecasting model with Chemistry (WRF/Chem) was used to study the effect of extreme weather events on ozone in US for historical (2001–2010) and future (2046–2055) periods under RCP8.5 scenario. During extreme weather events, including heat waves, atmospheric stagnation, and their compound events, ozone concentration is much higher compared to non-extreme events period. A striking enhancement of effect during compound events is revealed when heat wave and stagnation occur simultaneously and both high temperature and low wind speed promote the production of high ozone concentrations. In regions with high emissions, compound extreme events can shift the high-end tails of the probability density functions (PDFs) of ozone to even higher values to generate extreme ozone episodes. In regions with low emissions, extreme events can still increase high ozone frequency but the high-end tails of the PDFs are constrained by the low emissions. Despite large anthropogenic emission reduction projected for the future, compound events increase ozone more than the single events by 10 % to 13 %, comparable to the present, and high ozone episodes are not eliminated. Using the CMIP5 multi-model ensemble, the frequency of compound events is found to increase more dominantly compared to the increased frequency of single events in the future over the US, Europe, and China. High ozone episodes will likely continue in the future due to increases in both frequency and intensity of extreme events, despite reductions in anthropogenic emissions of its precursors. However, the latter could reduce or eliminate extreme ozone episodes, so improving projections of compound events and their impacts on extreme ozone may better constrain future projections of extreme ozone episodes that have detrimental effects on human health.

scholarly journals Weather Literacy in Times of Climate Change

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 435-452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nadine Fleischhut ◽  
Stefan M. Herzog ◽  
Ralph Hertwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Weather Conditions ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
The Public ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
The Future ◽  
Nationally Representative ◽  
And Migration ◽  
Weather Risks

AbstractAs climate change unfolds, extreme weather events are on the rise worldwide. According to experts, extreme weather risks already outrank those of terrorism and migration in likelihood and impact. But how well does the public understand weather risks and forecast uncertainty and thus grasp the amplified weather risks that climate change poses for the future? In a nationally representative survey (N = 1004; Germany), we tested the public’s weather literacy and awareness of climate change using 62 factual questions. Many respondents misjudged important weather risks (e.g., they were unaware that UV radiation can be higher under patchy cloud cover than on a cloudless day) and struggled to connect weather conditions to their impacts (e.g., they overestimated the distance to a thunderstorm). Most misinterpreted a probabilistic forecast deterministically, yet they strongly underestimated the uncertainty of deterministic forecasts. Respondents with higher weather literacy obtained weather information more often and spent more time outside but were not more educated. Those better informed about climate change were only slightly more weather literate. Overall, the public does not seem well equipped to anticipate weather risks in the here and now and may thus also fail to fully grasp what climate change implies for the future. These deficits in weather literacy highlight the need for impact forecasts that translate what the weather may be into what the weather may do and for transparent communication of uncertainty to the public. Boosting weather literacy may help to improve the public’s understanding of weather and climate change risks, thereby fostering informed decisions and mitigation support.

scholarly journals Policy options for addressing climate change, with a focus on ecosystem based adaptation: a case study of Guyana

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ramesh Lilwah
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sea Level ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Extreme Weather ◽  
Extreme Weather Events ◽  
Weather Events ◽  
Resource Sector ◽  
Adaptation Method ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

Close to ninety percent of Guyana‟s population live along a low lying coastal plain, which is below sea level and very vulnerable to the impacts of climate change. While the national government has not yet developed a comprehensive climate policy, the potential impacts of climate change is considered in several sectoral policies, much of which emphasize mitigation, with little focus on adaptation. This research examined the current priorities for adaptation by a review of the policies within the natural resource sector to identify opportunities for adaptation, especially ecosystem based adaptation. A Diagnostic Adaptation Framework (DAF) was used to help identify approaches to address a given adaptation challenge with regards to needs, measures and options. A survey questionnaire was used to support the policy reviews and identified four key vulnerabilities: coastal floods; sea level rise; drought and extreme weather events. The application of the DAF in selecting an adaptation method suggests the need for more data on drought and extreme weather events. Coastal flooding is addressed, with recognized need for more data and public awareness for ecosystem based adaptation

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