scholarly journals Coastal and river flood risk analyses for guiding economically optimal flood adaptation policies: a country-scale study for Mexico

2018 ◽  
Vol 376 (2121) ◽  
pp. 20170329 ◽  
Author(s):  
Toon Haer ◽  
W. J. Wouter Botzen ◽  
Vincent van Roomen ◽  
Harry Connor ◽  
Jorge Zavala-Hidalgo ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Cost Benefit ◽  
Economic Benefits ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Local Data ◽  
Flood Adaptation

Many countries around the world face increasing impacts from flooding due to socio-economic development in flood-prone areas, which may be enhanced in intensity and frequency as a result of climate change. With increasing flood risk, it is becoming more important to be able to assess the costs and benefits of adaptation strategies. To guide the design of such strategies, policy makers need tools to prioritize where adaptation is needed and how much adaptation funds are required. In this country-scale study, we show how flood risk analyses can be used in cost–benefit analyses to prioritize investments in flood adaptation strategies in Mexico under future climate scenarios. Moreover, given the often limited availability of detailed local data for such analyses, we show how state-of-the-art global data and flood risk assessment models can be applied for a detailed assessment of optimal flood-protection strategies. Our results show that especially states along the Gulf of Mexico have considerable economic benefits from investments in adaptation that limit risks from both river and coastal floods, and that increased flood-protection standards are economically beneficial for many Mexican states. We discuss the sensitivity of our results to modelling uncertainties, the transferability of our modelling approach and policy implications. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Advances in risk assessment for climate change adaptation policy’.

scholarly journals Conceptualising Flooding Systems Globally and Preferred Adaptation Strategies Locally under Climate Change

Jalawaayu ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 1 (1) ◽  
pp. 47-59
Author(s):  
Rohini Devkota
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Watershed Management ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Risk Level ◽  
Catchment Management ◽  
Household Level ◽  
The People ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Flood Adaptation

Climate induced natural disasters and extreme events are escalating with the increased variability of climatic parameters due to climate change. This study assesses the flood adaptation strategies that are applicable at the community level in two Terai districts of Nepal. This research aimed to analyse existing and preferred future flood adaptation strategies in a flood prone West Rapti River (WRR) Basin of Nepal, and a social survey of 240 households (HHs) and focus group discussions (FGDs). The specific objectives were to identify flood adaptation strategies based on people’s perception. Flood inundation maps are generated for four scenarios based on return periods: Scenario I; Scenario II; Scenario III; and Scenario IV. Peoples’ choice of flood mitigation strategies mainly depends on the current needs of the people and their knowledge of harm. Current needs govern current choices while the basis of future choice is generally made on the degree of the impact or perceived risk of the hazard. This can be clearly seen from the ranking made by the people for Scenarios I and IV. “Household level preparation /management” was ranked first for Scenario I while in Scenario IV “Watershed management” was ranked highest. “Watershed management” was felt to be an important strategy, as it was second ranked even in Scenarios II and III.  People may have realised that the mounting flood risk is increasing with time and that such risk can be reduced only through catchment management. When the risk is considered as of low level, people try first to adapt to it at the personal and household level. However, when the risk level increases, people look for alternatives or higher levels of adaptation. The perceptions of people in the study were found to be in agreement with these findings: as the flood risk increases from Scenario I to Scenario IV, the movement in choice of strategies changed accordingly. It can be concluded that when people are well-informed, they will do long term planning and formulate appropriate strategies. This research provides an overall framework for deriving potential mitigation and adaptation strategies to flood for Nepal in particular and other developing countries in general.

scholarly journals Flood Risk and Adaptation Strategies for Soybean Production Systems on the Flood-Prone Pampas under Climate Change

Agronomy ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1187
Author(s):  
Wouter Julius Smolenaars ◽  
Spyridon Paparrizos ◽  
Saskia Werners ◽  
Fulco Ludwig
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Risk Perceptions ◽  
Production Systems ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Flood Events ◽  
Climate Data ◽  
Soybean Production ◽  
Drying Trend ◽  
Sowing Season

In recent decades, multiple flood events have had a devastating impact on soybean production in Argentina. Recent advances suggest that the frequency and intensity of destructive flood events on the Argentinian Pampas will increase under pressure from climate change. This paper provides bottom-up insight into the flood risk for soybean production systems under climate change and the suitability of adaptation strategies in two of the most flood-prone areas of the Pampas region. The flood risk perceptions of soybean producers were explored through interviews, translated into climatic indicators and then studied using a multi-model climate data analysis. Soybean producers perceived the present flood risk for rural accessibility to be of the highest concern, especially during the harvest and sowing seasons when heavy machinery needs to reach soybean lots. An analysis of climatic change projections found a rising trend in annual and harvest precipitation and a slight drying trend during the sowing season. This indicates that the flood risk for harvest accessibility may increase under climate change. Several adaptation strategies were identified that can systemically address flood risks, but these require collaborative action and cannot be undertaken by individual producers. The results suggest that if cooperative adaptation efforts are not made in the short term, the continued increase in flood risk may force soybean producers in the case study locations to shift away from soybean towards more robust land uses.

scholarly journals Understanding epistemic uncertainty in large-scale coastal flood risk assessment for present and future climates

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michalis I. Vousdoukas ◽  
Dimitrios Bouziotas ◽  
Alessio Giardino ◽  
Laurens M. Bouwer ◽  
Evangelos Voukouvalas ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Epistemic Uncertainty ◽  
Coastal Protection ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Flood ◽  
Coastal Flood Risk ◽  
The Impact

Abstract. An upscaling of flood risk assessment frameworks beyond regional and national scales has taken place during recent years, with a number of large-scale models emerging as tools for hotspot identification, support for international policy-making and harmonization of climate change adaptation strategies. There is, however, limited insight on the scaling effects and structural limitations of flood risk models and, therefore, the underlying uncertainty. In light of this, we examine key sources of epistemic uncertainty in the Coastal Flood Risk (CFR) modelling chain: (i) the inclusion and interaction of different hydraulic components leading to extreme sea-level (ESL); (ii) inundation modelling; (iii) the underlying uncertainty in the Digital Elevation Model (DEM); (iv) flood defence information; (v) the assumptions behind the use of depth-damage functions that express vulnerability; and (vi) different climate change projections. The impact of these uncertainties to estimated Expected Annual Damage (EAD) for present and future climates is evaluated in a dual case study in Faro, Portugal and in the Iberian Peninsula. The ranking of the uncertainty factors varies among the different case studies, baseline CFR estimates, as well as their absolute/relative changes. We find that uncertainty from ESL contributions, and in particular the way waves are treated, can be higher than the uncertainty of the two greenhouse gas emission projections and six climate models that are used. Of comparable importance is the quality of information on coastal protection levels and DEM information. In the absence of large-extent datasets with sufficient resolution and accuracy the latter two factors are the main bottlenecks in terms of large-scale CFR assessment quality.

scholarly journals Public health evidence for the UK’s Third Climate Change Risk Assessment

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
S Kovats ◽  
R Brisley ◽  
P Watkiss ◽  
G Turner
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Healthcare Delivery ◽  
Adaptation Strategies ◽  
Climate Change Risk ◽  
The Third ◽  
Policy Responses ◽  
Health And Social Care ◽  
Planned Adaptation

Abstract Background The UK has a statutory requirement under the Climate Change Act (2008) to undertake a Climate Change Risk Assessment (CCRA) every five years. The Evidence Report for the Third CCRA, due 2021, will identify the most important current and future risks and opportunities to public health from climate change. It also considers whether present and planned adaptation strategies to are sufficient to manage the risks or additional action is required. Methods The analysis underpinning this review assesses whether risks and actions improve or exacerbate adverse health outcomes and inequalities. This paper reports on the CCRA3 evidence review, which considers the current and likely future impacts of changing flood risk, heatwaves, coastal change, air pollution, vector-borne disease and water quality on public health and healthcare delivery. All risks are assessed by their magnitude, as well as scored by urgency to address them. Results This paper presents the findings for two risks - from heat and coastal flooding impacts on population health and communities. A key focus has been to explore how climate change and policy responses affect the health of vulnerable groups and who could be further disadvantaged by inappropriate adaptation policies. This includes new analysis of the climate risks to health within the built environment and within the health and social care sector. The long-term health consequences of climate change have been considered through potential policy, building and environmental “lock-in”. Such lock-ins include potential risks to inhabitants from overheating due to building regulations failing to address increasing ambient temperatures or homes being built on flood plains. Conclusions Climate change presents challenges to deliver national policy responses ensuring that adaptation remains equitable and optimal for health. The CCRA3 Evidence Report will inform the third UK National Adaptation Plan, setting out Government actions for 2023-2028. Key messages Assess current and future risks and opportunities to public health from climate change. Assess present and planned adaptation strategies for management of risks.

Limits to natural disasters management: the influence of human behavior

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeroen Aerts
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Risk Management ◽  
Natural Disasters ◽  
Human Behavior ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Behavioral Adaptation ◽  
Risk Models ◽  
Physically Based ◽  
The Impact

<p>Despite billions of dollars of investments in disaster risk reduction (DRR), data over the period 1994- 2013 show natural disasters caused 1.35 million lives. Science respond with more timely and accurate information on the dynamics of risk and vulnerability of natural hazards, such as floods. This information is essential for designing and implementing effective climate change adaptation and DRR policies. However, how much do we really know about how the main agents in DRR (individuals, businesses, government, NGO) use this data? How do agents behave before, during, and after a disaster, since this can dramatically affect the impact and recovery time. Since existing risk assessment methods rarely include this critical ‘behavioral adaptation’ factor, significant progress has been made in the scientific community to address human adaptation activities (development of flood protection, reservoir operations, land management practices) in physically based risk models.</p><p>This presentation gives an historic overview of the most important developments in DRR science for flood risk. Traditional risk methods integrate vulnerability and adaptation using a ‘top- down’ scenario approach, where climate change, socio economic trends and adaptation are treated as external forcing to a physically based risk model (e.g. hydrological or storm surge model). Vulnerability research has made significant steps in identifying the relevant vulnerability indicators, but has not yet provided the necessary tools to dynamically integrate vulnerability in flood risk models.</p><p>However, recent research show novel methods to integrate human adaptive behavior with flood risk models. By integrating behavioral adaptation dynamics in Agent Based Risk Models, may lead to a more realistic characterization of the risks and improved assessment of the effectiveness of risk management strategies and investments. With these improved methods, it is also shown that in the coming decades, human behavior is an important driver to flood risk projections as compared to other drivers, such as climate change. This presentation shows how these recent innovations for flood risk assessment provides novel insight for flood risk management policies.</p>

Rapid Global Exposure Assessment for Extreme River Flood Risk Under Climate Change

2016 ◽  
Vol 11 (6) ◽  
pp. 1128-1136 ◽  
Author(s):  
Youngjoo Kwak ◽  
◽  
Yoichi Iwami ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Flood Hazard ◽  
Data Availability ◽  
Flood Risk Assessment ◽  
Daily Data ◽  
Extreme Flood ◽  
River Flood

Globally, large-scale floods are one of the most serious disasters, considering increased frequency and intensity of heavy rainfall. This is not only a domestic problem but also an international water issue related to transboundary rivers in terms of global river flood risk assessment. The purpose of this study is to propose a rapid flood hazard model as a methodological possibility to be used on a global scale, which uses flood inundation depth and works reasonably despite low data availability. The method is designed to effectively simplify complexities involving hydrological and topographical variables in a flood risk-prone area when applied in an integrated global flood risk assessment framework. The model was used to evaluate flood hazard and exposure through pixel-based comparison in the case of extreme flood events caused by an annual maximum daily river discharge of 1/50 probability of occurrence under the condition of climate change between two periods, Present (daily data from 1980 to 2004) and Future (daily data from 2075 to 2099). As preliminary results, the maximum potential extent of inundation area and the maximum number of affected people show an upward trend in Present and Future.

scholarly journals Potential of semi-structural and non-structural adaptation strategies to reduce future flood risk: case study for the Meuse

2012 ◽  
Vol 12 (11) ◽  
pp. 3455-3471 ◽  
Author(s):  
J. K. Poussin ◽  
P. Bubeck ◽  
J. C. J. H. Aerts ◽  
P. J. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Land Use ◽  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Flood Risk ◽  
Local Level ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Policy Implications ◽  
Mitigation Measures ◽  
Reduction Capacity ◽  
Flood Prone Areas

Abstract. Flood risk throughout Europe has increased in the last few decades, and is projected to increase further owing to continued development in flood-prone areas and climate change. In recent years, studies have shown that adequate undertaking of semi-structural and non-structural measures can considerably decrease the costs of floods for households. However, there is little insight into how such measures can decrease the risk beyond the local level, now and in the future. To gain such insights, a modelling framework using the Damagescanner model with land-use and inundation maps for 2000 and 2030 was developed and applied to the Meuse river basin, in the region of Limburg, in the southeast of the Netherlands. The research suggests that annual flood risk may increase by up to 185% by 2030 compared with 2000, as a result of combined land-use and climate changes. The independent contributions of climate change and land-use change to the simulated increase are 108% and 37%, respectively. The risk-reduction capacity of the implementation of spatial zoning measures, which are meant to limit and regulate developments in flood-prone areas, is between 25% and 45%. Mitigation factors applied to assess the potential impact of three mitigation strategies (dry-proofing, wet-proofing, and the combination of dry- and wet-proofing) in residential areas show that these strategies have a risk-reduction capacity of between 21% and 40%, depending on their rate of implementation. Combining spatial zoning and mitigation measures could reduce the total increase in risk by up to 60%. Policy implications of these results are discussed. They focus on the undertaking of effective mitigation measures, and possible ways to increase their implementation by households.

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