scholarly journals Phenological shifts of native and invasive species under climate change: insights from the Boechera–Lythrum model

2017 ◽  
Vol 372 (1712) ◽  
pp. 20160032 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert I. Colautti ◽  
Jon Ågren ◽  
Jill T. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Rocky Mountain ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Lythrum Salicaria ◽  
Genetic Constraints ◽  
Floral Phenology ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Delayed Flowering

Warmer and drier climates have shifted phenologies of many species. However, the magnitude and direction of phenological shifts vary widely among taxa, and it is often unclear when shifts are adaptive or how they affect long-term viability. Here, we model evolution of flowering phenology based on our long-term research of two species exhibiting opposite shifts in floral phenology: Lythrum salicaria , which is invasive in North America, and the sparse Rocky Mountain native Boechera stricta . Genetic constraints are similar in both species, but differences in the timing of environmental conditions that favour growth lead to opposite phenological shifts under climate change. As temperatures increase, selection is predicted to favour earlier flowering in native B. stricta while reducing population viability, even if populations adapt rapidly to changing environmental conditions. By contrast, warming is predicted to favour delayed flowering in both native and introduced L. salicaria populations while increasing long-term viability. Relaxed selection from natural enemies in invasive L. salicaria is predicted to have little effect on flowering time but a large effect on reproductive fitness. Our approach highlights the importance of understanding ecological and genetic constraints to predict the ecological consequences of evolutionary responses to climate change on contemporary timescales. This article is part of the themed issue ‘Human influences on evolution, and the ecological and societal consequences’.

scholarly journals Why economics matters for understanding the effects of climate change on fisheries

2012 ◽  
Vol 69 (7) ◽  
pp. 1160-1167 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alan C. Haynie ◽  
Lisa Pfeiffer
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Conceptual Framework ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Economic Factors ◽  
Marine Science ◽  
Biological Factors ◽  
Climate Effects ◽  
Economic Mechanisms

Abstract Haynie, A. C., and Pfeiffer, L. 2012. Why economics matters for understanding the effects of climate change on fisheries. – ICES Journal of Marine Science, 69: . Research attempting to predict the effect of climate change on fisheries often neglects to consider how harvesters respond to changing economic, institutional, and environmental conditions, which leads to the overly simplistic prediction of “fisheries follow fish”. However, climate effects on fisheries can be complex because they arise through physical, biological, and economic mechanisms that interact or may not be well understood. Although most researchers find it obvious to include physical and biological factors in predicting the effects of climate change on fisheries, the behaviour of fish harvesters also matters for these predictions. A general but succinct conceptual framework for investigating the effects of climate change on fisheries that incorporates the biological and economic factors that determine how fisheries operate is presented. The use of this framework will result in more complete, reliable, and relevant investigations of the effects of climate change on fisheries. The uncertainty surrounding long-term projections, however, is inherent in the complexity of the system.

Climate change effects on marine renewable energy resources and environmental conditions for offshore aquaculture in Europe

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos V C Weiss ◽  
Melisa Menendez ◽  
Bárbara Ondiviela ◽  
Raúl Guanche ◽  
Iñigo J Losada ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Renewable Energy ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Energy Resources ◽  
Renewable Energy Resources ◽  
Energy Potential ◽  
Holistic View ◽  
Marine Renewable Energy ◽  
Offshore Aquaculture

Abstract The development of the marine renewable energy and offshore aquaculture sectors is susceptible to being affected by climate change. Consequently, for the long-term planning of these activities, a holistic view on the effects of climate change on energy resources and environmental conditions is required. Based on present climate and future climate scenario, favourable conditions for wind and wave energy exploitation and for farming six marine fish species are assessed using a suitability index over all European regional seas. Regarding available energy potential, the estimated changes in climate do not have direct impacts on the geographic distribution of potential regions for the energy industry (both wind and wave based), that is they pose no threat to this industry. Long-term changes in environmental conditions could however require adaptation of the aquaculture sector and especially of its exploitation areas. Opportunities for aquaculture expansion of the assessed species are identified. Possibilities for co-location of these activities are observed in the different climate scenarios. The evaluation of potential zones for the exploitation of marine renewable energy resources and offshore aquaculture represents a stepping-stone, useful for improving decision-making and assisting in the management of marine economies both in the short-term and in the long-term development of these sectors.

scholarly journals Phenological variation in annual timing of hibernation and breeding in nearby populations of Arctic ground squirrels

2010 ◽  
Vol 278 (1716) ◽  
pp. 2369-2375 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Sheriff ◽  
G. Jim Kenagy ◽  
Melanie Richter ◽  
Trixie Lee ◽  
Øivind Tøien ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Ground Squirrels ◽  
Ecological Communities ◽  
Physiological Mechanisms ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
Trade Offs ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Arctic Ground Squirrels ◽  
Northern Alaska

Ecologists need an empirical understanding of physiological and behavioural adjustments that animals can make in response to seasonal and long-term variations in environmental conditions. Because many species experience trade-offs between timing and duration of one seasonal event versus another and because interacting species may also shift phenologies at different rates, it is possible that, in aggregate, phenological shifts could result in mismatches that disrupt ecological communities. We investigated the timing of seasonal events over 14 years in two Arctic ground squirrel populations living 20 km apart in Northern Alaska. At Atigun River, snow melt occurred 27 days earlier and snow cover began 17 days later than at Toolik Lake. This spatial differential was reflected in significant variation in the timing of most seasonal events in ground squirrels living at the two sites. Although reproductive males ended seasonal torpor on the same date at both sites, Atigun males emerged from hibernation 9 days earlier and entered hibernation 5 days later than Toolik males. Atigun females emerged and bred 13 days earlier and entered hibernation 9 days earlier than those at Toolik. We propose that this variation in phenology over a small spatial scale is likely generated by plasticity of physiological mechanisms that may also provide individuals the ability to respond to variation in environmental conditions over time.

scholarly journals Phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution contribute to advancing flowering phenology in response to climate change

2012 ◽  
Vol 279 (1743) ◽  
pp. 3843-3852 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jill T. Anderson ◽  
David W. Inouye ◽  
Amy M. McKinney ◽  
Robert I. Colautti ◽  
Tom Mitchell-Olds
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Phenotypic Plasticity ◽  
Adaptive Evolution ◽  
Field Experiments ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Directional Selection ◽  
Major Life ◽  
Quantitative Genetic ◽  
Evolutionary Response

Anthropogenic climate change has already altered the timing of major life-history transitions, such as the initiation of reproduction. Both phenotypic plasticity and adaptive evolution can underlie rapid phenological shifts in response to climate change, but their relative contributions are poorly understood. Here, we combine a continuous 38 year field survey with quantitative genetic field experiments to assess adaptation in the context of climate change. We focused on Boechera stricta (Brassicaeae), a mustard native to the US Rocky Mountains. Flowering phenology advanced significantly from 1973 to 2011, and was strongly associated with warmer temperatures and earlier snowmelt dates. Strong directional selection favoured earlier flowering in contemporary environments (2010–2011). Climate change could drive this directional selection, and promote even earlier flowering as temperatures continue to increase. Our quantitative genetic analyses predict a response to selection of 0.2 to 0.5 days acceleration in flowering per generation, which could account for more than 20 per cent of the phenological change observed in the long-term dataset. However, the strength of directional selection and the predicted evolutionary response are likely much greater now than even 30 years ago because of rapidly changing climatic conditions. We predict that adaptation will likely be necessary for long-term in situ persistence in the context of climate change.

scholarly journals Ehretia pubescens Benth. with differential germinability patterns due to climate change

2017 ◽  
Vol 6 (06) ◽  
pp. 1630
Author(s):  
Amalaurpava Mary Michael* ◽  
Gopal G.V.
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Fruit Set ◽  
Pollen Viability ◽  
Natural Habitat ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Flowering Pattern ◽  
Floral Phenology ◽  
The Impact

Climate change may influence the composition of plant communities by affecting the reproduction, growth, establishment and local extinction of plant species. Predicting the effect of climate change may provide insight into the impact and relationship between weather pattern and flowering phenology in long term studies. Pollen viability is one important factor of reproduction. Pollen viability is essential for a good fruit set. The study is undertaken to evaluate the influence of temperature and rainfall fluctuation pattern on floral phenology and pollen viability in the restricted distribution of the plant Ehretia pubescens Benth. Field observation on floral phenology has revealed changes occurring in the pollen viability with the change of temperature and rainfall. The plants show drought resistant; however, it is observed that it blooms immediately after the rainfall. Change in the rainfall pattern results in change in flowering pattern. On the natural habitat fruit set is a good indicating of good germinability of pollen grain in vivo. In vitro pollen germinability is less efficient for this species as supported by the data.

scholarly journals Feedback of coastal marshes to climate change: Long‐term phenological shifts

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (12) ◽  
pp. 6785-6797 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yu Mo ◽  
Michael S. Kearney ◽  
R. Eugene Turner
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Coastal Marshes ◽  
Phenological Shifts

scholarly journals Priority effects and season length shape long-term competition dynamics

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Heng-Xing Zou ◽  
Volker H. W. Rudolf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Species Interactions ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Stage Structure ◽  
Priority Effects ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Priority Effect ◽  
Phenological Shifts

AbstractThe relative arrival time of species often affects species interactions within a community, contributing to priority effects. Recent studies on phenological shifts under climate change have generated renewed interest on priority effects, but their role in shaping long-term dynamics of seasonal communities is poorly resolved. Here we use a general stage-structure competition model to determine how different types of priority effects influence long-term coexistence of species in seasonal systems. We show that while shifts in mean and variance of relative arrival time can alter persistence and coexistence conditions of species, these effects depend on season length and type of priority effect. In “slow” systems with one or a few cohorts per season, changes in mean and seasonal variation of relative arrival time strongly altered species persistence through trait-mediated priority effects. In contrast, competition outcome in “fast” systems is largely determined by numeric priority effects due to interaction between many overlapping generations. These results suggest that empirically observed priority effects may arise from fundamentally different mechanisms, and that fast-generating systems may be less impacted by seasonal variation in phenology. Our model provides important insight into how natural communities respond to increasing variation in phenology over seasons under climate change.

scholarly journals TEMPERATURE AND NUTRIENT CONDITIONS MODIFY THE EFFECTS OF PHENOLOGICAL SHIFTS IN PREDATOR-PREY COMMUNITIES

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Volker H.W. Rudolf
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Conditions ◽  
Community Dynamics ◽  
Arrival Time ◽  
Environmental Context ◽  
Nutrient Addition ◽  
Predator Prey ◽  
Early Arrival ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Predation Rates

While there is mounting evidence indicating that the relative timing of predator and prey phenologies shapes the outcome of trophic interactions, we still lack a comprehensive understanding of how important the environmental context (e.g. abiotic conditions) is for shaping this relationship. Environmental conditions not only frequently drive shifts in phenologies, but they can also affect the very same processes that mediate the effects of phenological shifts on species interactions. Thus, identifying how environmental conditions shape the effects of phenological shifts is key to predict community dynamics across a heterogenous landscape and how they will change with ongoing climate change in the future. Here I tested how environmental conditions shape effects of phenological shifts by experimentally manipulating temperature, nutrient availability, and relative phenologies in two predator-prey freshwater systems (mole salamander- bronze frog vs dragonfly larvae-leopard frog). This allowed me to (1) isolate the effect of phenological shifts and different environmental conditions, (2) determine how they interact, and (3) how consistent these patterns are across different species and environments. I found that delaying prey arrival dramatically increased predation rates, but these effects were contingent on environmental conditions and predator system. While both nutrient addition and warming significantly enhanced the effect of arrival time, their effect was qualitatively different: Nutrient addition enhanced the positive effect of early arrival while warming enhanced the negative effect of arriving late. Predator responses varied qualitatively across predator-prey systems. Only in the system with strong gape-limitation were predators (salamanders) significantly affected by prey arrival time and this effect varied with environmental context. Correlations between predator and prey demographic rates suggest that this was driven by shifts in initial predator-prey size ratios and a positive feedback between size-specific predation rates and predator growth rates. These results highlight the importance of accounting for temporal and spatial correlation of local environmental conditions and gape-limitation in predator-prey systems when predicting the effects of phenological shifts and climate change on predator-prey systems.

scholarly journals Patterns of flower-visiting insects depend on flowering phenological shifts along an altitudinal gradient in subalpine moorland ecosystems

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Natsuki Matsubara ◽  
Akihito Goto ◽  
Kei Uchida ◽  
Takehiro Sasaki
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
Growth Period ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Mass Flowering ◽  
Drosera Rotundifolia ◽  
Recent Climate ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Flower Visiting ◽  
Plant Pollinator

Abstract Alpine and subalpine moorland ecosystems contain unique plant communities, often with many endemic and threatened species, some of which depend on insect pollination. Although alpine and subalpine moorland ecosystems are vulnerable to climatic change, few studies have investigated flower-visiting insects in such ecosystems and examined the factors regulating plant-pollinator interactions along altitudinal gradients. Here, we explored how altitudinal patterns in flower visitors change according to altitudinal shifts in flowering phenology in subalpine moorland ecosystems in northern Japan. We surveyed flower-visiting insects and flowering plants at five sites differing in altitude in early July (soon after snowmelt) and mid-August (peak growing season). In July, we found a higher visiting frequency by more variable insect orders including Dipteran, Hymenopteran, Coleopteran, and Lepidopteran species at the higher altitude sites in association with the mass flowering of Geum pentapetalum and Nephrophyllidium crista-galli. In August, such altitudinal patterns were not observed, and Dipteran species dominated across the sites due to the flowering of Narthecium asiaticum and Drosera rotundifolia. Earlier snowmelt associated with recent climate change is expected to extend the growth period of moorland plants and modify flowering phenology in moorland ecosystems, leading to altered plant-pollinator interactions. Our study provides key baselines for the detection of endangered biotic interactions and extinction risks of moorland plants under ongoing climate change.

scholarly journals Phenological responses to multiple environmental drivers under climate change: insights from a long-term observational study and a manipulative field experiment

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susana M. Wadgymar ◽  
Jane E. Ogilvie ◽  
David W. Inouye ◽  
Arthur E. Weis ◽  
Jill T. Anderson
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Environmental Factors ◽  
Observational Study ◽  
Interspecific Variation ◽  
Flowering Phenology ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Reproductive Phenology ◽  
Biological Responses ◽  
Boechera Stricta

AbstractClimate change has induced pronounced shifts in the reproductive phenology of plants, with the timing of first flowering advancing in most species. Indeed, population persistence may be threatened by the inability to track climate change phenologically. Nevertheless, substantial variation exists in biological responses to climate change across taxa. Here, we explore the consequences of climate change for flowering phenology by integrating data from a long-term observational study and a manipulative experiment under contemporary conditions. Dissecting the environmental factors that influence phenological change will illuminate why interspecific variation exists in responses to climate change. We examine a 43-year record of first flowering for six species in subalpine meadows of Colorado in conjunction with a 3-year snow manipulation experiment on the perennial mustard Boechera stricta from the same site. We analyze shifts in the onset of flowering in relation to environmental drivers known to influence phenology: the timing of snowmelt, the accumulation of growing degree days, and photoperiod. At our study site, climate change is reducing snowpack and advancing the timing of spring snowmelt. We found that variation in phenological responses to climate change depended on the sequence in which species flowered, with early-flowering species flowering faster, at a lower heat sum, and under increasingly disparate photoperiods in comparison to species that flower later in the season. Furthermore, climate change is outpacing phenological change for all species. Early snow removal treatments confirm that the timing of snowmelt governs observed trends in flowering phenology of B. stricta and that climate change can reduce the probability of flowering, thereby depressing fitness. Shorter-term studies would not have captured the trends that we document in our observational and experimental datasets. Accurate predictions of the biological responses to climate change require a thorough understanding of the specific environmental factors driving shifts in phenology.

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