scholarly journals Uncertainty and computational complexity

2018 ◽  
Vol 374 (1766) ◽  
pp. 20180138 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter Bossaerts ◽  
Nitin Yadav ◽  
Carsten Murawski
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Computational Complexity ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Primary Concern ◽  
Subjective Beliefs ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
New Information ◽  
Savage Axioms

Modern theories of decision-making typically model uncertainty about decision options using the tools of probability theory. This is exemplified by the Savage framework, the most popular framework in decision-making research. There, decision-makers are assumed to choose from among available decision options as if they maximized subjective expected utility, which is given by the utilities of outcomes in different states weighted with subjective beliefs about the occurrence of those states. Beliefs are captured by probabilities and new information is incorporated using Bayes’ Law. The primary concern of the Savage framework is to ensure that decision-makers’ choices are rational . Here, we use concepts from computational complexity theory to expose two major weaknesses of the framework. Firstly, we argue that in most situations, subjective utility maximization is computationally intractable, which means that the Savage axioms are implausible. We discuss empirical evidence supporting this claim. Secondly, we argue that there exist many decision situations in which the nature of uncertainty is such that (random) sampling in combination with Bayes’ Law is an ineffective strategy to reduce uncertainty. We discuss several implications of these weaknesses from both an empirical and a normative perspective. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Risk taking and impulsive behaviour: fundamental discoveries, theoretical perspectives and clinical implications’.

Rationality and risk-taking in Russia’s first Chechen War: toward a theory of cognitive realism

2010 ◽  
Vol 2 (2) ◽  
pp. 187-210
Author(s):  
Jason J. Morrissette
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
International Relations ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Utility Maximization ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Adequate Explanation ◽  
Russian President ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Cognitive Realism ◽  
Made In

This article seeks to establish a better scholarly understanding of former Russian President Boris Yeltsin’s decision to launch an ill-planned, risky, and ultimately disastrous invasion of the breakaway republic of Chechnya in 1994. Examining the decision-making environment that led up to the invasion, I conclude that while neorealism provides an adequate explanation for Yeltsin’s motives in this case, the decisions that he made in pursuit of these goals do not reflect the logic of rational utility maximization commonly associated with neorealist theory. Instead, I suggest that prospect theory – based on the idea that decision-makers tend to be risk averse when confronted with choices between gains while risk acceptant when confronted with losses – offers significantly more explanatory insight in this case. Thus, the article offers further support for an alternative theoretical approach to international relations that some scholars have termed ‘cognitive realism’, incorporating neorealist motives with a more empirically accurate perspective on the decision-making processes undertaken in pursuit of these motives.

scholarly journals Fuzzy-based Description of Computational Complexity of Central Nervous Systems

2020 ◽  
Vol 3 ◽  
pp. 57-66
Author(s):  
Piotr Prokopowicz ◽  
Dariusz Mikołajewski ◽  
Krzysztof Tyburek ◽  
Piotr Kotlarz
Keyword(s):  
Applied Sciences ◽  
Complex Analysis ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Valuable Insight ◽  
Subjective Beliefs ◽  
Uncertainty Model ◽  
New Information ◽  
Central Nervous Systems ◽  
Decision Making Processes ◽  
Point Of Departure

Computational intelligence algorithms are currently capable of dealing with simple cognitive processes, but still remain inefficient compared with the human brain’s ability to learn from few exemplars or to analyze problems that have not been defined in an explicit manner. Generalization and decision-making processes typically require an uncertainty model that is applied to the decision options while relying on the probability approach. Thus, models of such cognitive functions usually interact with reinforcement-based learning to simplify complex problems. Decision-makers are needed to choose from the decision options that are available, in order to ensure that the decision-makers’ choices are rational. They maximize the subjective overall utility expected, given by the outcomes in different states and weighted with subjective beliefs about the occurrence of those states. Beliefs are captured by probabilities and new information is incorporated using the Bayes’ law. Fuzzy-based models described in this paper propose a different – they may serve as a point of departure for a family of novel methods enabling more effective and neurobiologically reliable brain simulation that is based on fuzzy logic techniques and that turns out to be useful in both basic and applied sciences. The approach presented provides a valuable insight into understanding the aforementioned processes, doing that in a descriptive, fuzzy-based manner, without presenting a complex analysis

Frameworks and Models in Decision-Making and Judgment in Child Welfare and Protection

2020 ◽  
pp. 3-26
Author(s):  
Rami Benbenishty ◽  
John D. Fluke
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Information Processing ◽  
Child Welfare ◽  
False Negative ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
Specificity And Sensitivity ◽  
Predictive Risk

This chapter presents the basic concepts, theoretical perspectives, and areas of scholarship that bear on decisions in child welfare—making choices in decision environments characterized by high levels of uncertainty. The authors distinguish between normative models that predict what decision-makers ought to choose when faced with alternatives and descriptive models that describe how they tend to make these choices in real life. The chapter reviews those challenges that may be especially relevant in the complex context of child welfare and protection. One way in which decision-makers overcome task complexities and limitations in human information processing (bounded rationality) is by using heuristics to navigate complex tasks. The chapter reviews strategies to correct some limitations in judgment. The authors examine the relationships between workers’ predictions of what would be the outcomes of the case and the actual outcomes and describe two types of error (false positive and false negative) and the related concepts of specificity and sensitivity. These issues are followed by a description of the Lens Model and some of its implications for child welfare decision-making, including predictive risk modeling and studies on information processing models. The final section presents current theoretical models in child welfare decision-making and describes Decision-Making Ecology (DME) and Judgments and Decision Processes in Context (JUDPiC). The chapter concludes with suggestions for future research on child welfare decision-making that could contribute to our conceptual understanding and have practical utility as well.

scholarly journals Why has evolution not selected for perfect self-control?

2018 ◽  
Vol 374 (1766) ◽  
pp. 20180139 ◽  
Author(s):  
Benjamin Y. Hayden
Keyword(s):  
Cognitive Control ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Self Control ◽  
Subjective Feeling ◽  
Theme Issue ◽  
Theoretical Perspectives ◽  
Obvious Reason ◽  
Control Failures

Self-control refers to the ability to deliberately reject tempting options and instead select ones that produce greater long-term benefits. Although some apparent failures of self-control are, on closer inspection, reward maximizing, at least some self-control failures are clearly disadvantageous and non-strategic. The existence of poor self-control presents an important evolutionary puzzle because there is no obvious reason why good self-control should be more costly than poor self-control. After all, a rock is infinitely patient. I propose that self-control failures result from cases in which well-learned (and thus routinized) decision-making strategies yield suboptimal choices. These mappings persist in the decision-makers’ repertoire because they result from learning processes that are adaptive in the broader context, either on the timescale of learning or of evolution. Self-control, then, is a form of cognitive control and the subjective feeling of effort likely reflects the true costs of cognitive control. Poor self-control, in this view, is ultimately a result of bounded optimality. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Risk taking and impulsive behaviour: fundamental discoveries, theoretical perspectives and clinical implications.

scholarly journals Proses Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
yola febriani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah ◽  
Rusdinal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Right ◽  
Alternative Solutions ◽  
Made In

This article aims to describe how is the process of decision making. Decision making is something that is never separated from human life, both simple decision making and complex problems. Everyone is always faced with the choice to take a decision. To be able to take the right decisions, every person should know the steps. This article presents what the decision-making steps and what is the importance of creative thinking in decision making. Creative thinking will help decision makers to improve the quality and effectiveness of problem solving and decision making results were made. In relation to the process of decision making, creative thinking is needed, especially in identifying problems and develop alternative solutions. The methodology used to arrange this article is Systematic Literature Review (SLR). First, researcher find relevant theories, and then make a conclusion about it, then analyzing, and finally make a new information based researcher analyzing.

scholarly journals Proses Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
yola febriani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah ◽  
Rusdinal
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Right ◽  
Alternative Solutions ◽  
Made In

This article aims to describe how is the process of decision making. Decision making is something that is never separated from human life, both simple decision making and complex problems. Everyone is always faced with the choice to take a decision. To be able to take the right decision, every person should know the steps. This article presents what the decision making steps and what is the importance of creative thinking in decision making. Creative thinking will help decision makers to improve the quality and effectiveness of problem solving and decision making results were made. In relation to the process of decision making, creative thinking is needed, especially in identifying problems and develop alternative solutions. The methodology used to arrange this article is Systematic Literature Review (SLR). First, researcher find relevant theories, and then make a conclusion about it, then analyzing, and finally make a new information based researcher analyzing

Decision Making Support Systems

2011 ◽  
pp. 392-403 ◽  
Author(s):  
Guisseppi A. Forgionne ◽  
Jatinder N.D. Gupta ◽  
Manuel Mora
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Support Systems ◽  
State Of The Art ◽  
Organizational Structures ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Organizational Benefits ◽  
New Information ◽  
Challenges And Opportunities ◽  
Future Challenges ◽  
Decision Making Support

Previous chapters have described the state of the art in decision making support systems (DMSS). This chapter synthesizes the views of leading scientists concerning the achievements of DMSS and the future challenges and opportunities. According to the experts, DMSS will be technologically more integrated, offer broader and deeper support for decision making, and provide a much wider array of applications. In the process, new information and computer technologies will be necessitated, the decision makers’ jobs will change, and new organizational structures will emerge to meet the changes. The changes will not occur without displacements of old technologies and old work paradigms. In particular, there will be an evolution toward team-based decision making paradigms. Although the evolution can require significant investments, the organizational benefits from successful DMSS deployments can be significant and substantial. Researchers and practitioners are encouraged to collaborate in their effort to further enhance the theoretical and pragmatic developments of DMSS.

A Decision-Making Method for Boosting New Digitalization Technologies

2021 ◽  
pp. 1-35
Author(s):  
Francisco E. Santarremigia ◽  
Sara Poveda-Reyes ◽  
Miguel Hervás-Peralta ◽  
Gemma D. Molero
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Communication Technology ◽  
Net Present Value ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Information ◽  
Information And Communication ◽  
Potential Benefits ◽  
Technology Tool ◽  
Technical Solutions

Market acceptance of new digitalization technologies is low. To help to address this shortcoming, the following paper defines a quantitative decision-making methodology for the exante evaluation of the market acceptance of new digitalization solutions in the initial stages of design and development. The proposed decision-making methodology includes a first evaluation, using Volere methodology, for the quantification of how useful the new digitalization solution is for the end users, and a second method, the calculation of the net present value (NPV) based on potential benefits in terms of costs and intangible benefits of the new tool. A new tool for the management of freight transport was used as a case study. The usefulness of a new information technology tool was assessed in six different companies. It was designed to help developers and decision makers in information and communication technology (ICT) product development, and company managers in the evaluation of technical solutions that might better satisfy their needs. Further studies could measure the power of this methodology by comparing the implementation levels of two different prototypes designed for the same function and with different Volere and NPV scorings.

Determinants of Risk Taking in a Dynamic Uncertain Context

2002 ◽  
Vol 28 (1) ◽  
pp. 89-106 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeffrey P. Slattery ◽  
Daniel C. Ganster
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Risk Taking ◽  
Goal Attainment ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Complex Dynamic ◽  
Managerial Decision ◽  
Risky Decision ◽  
Dynamic Task ◽  
Outcome Feedback ◽  
Uncertain Outcomes

We tested the effects of positive and negative framing on risky decision making in a simulated managerial judgement task. Until now the extensive research on framing effects has been characterized by static contexts, explicit probabilities, and hypothetical gambles. In contrast we simulated a more realistic decision making environment in which individuals chose more or less risky goals in a complex dynamic task that featured uncertain outcomes and meaningful consequences. Decision makers chose a series of performance goals under conditions of either potential losses or gains and also received feedback about their goal attainment. Our results failed to replicateProspect Theory predictions about initial gain vs.loss framing typically found in static decision making contexts. In addition, we tested competing hypotheses derived from Prospect Theory and Quasi-Hedonic Editing (QHE) Theory about the effects of performance outcome feedback on subsequent decisions. Consistent with QHE Theory, decision makers who had failed to reach their goals set lower, less risky goals in subsequent decisions. Our findings illustrate the need for further risk taking research in environments that more closely resemble managerial decision making.

scholarly journals Proses Pengambilan Keputusan

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
yola febriani ◽  
Hade Afriansyah
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Problem Solving ◽  
Literature Review ◽  
Creative Thinking ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
New Information ◽  
The Right ◽  
Alternative Solutions ◽  
Made In

This article aims to describe how is the process of decision making. Decision making is something that is never separated from human life, both simple decision making and complex problems. Everyone is always faced with the choice to take a decision. To be able to take the right decisions, every person should know the steps. This article presents what the decision-making steps and what is the importance of creative thinking in decision making. Creative thinking will help decision makers to improve the quality and effectiveness of problem solving and decision making results were made. In relation to the process of decision making, creative thinking is needed, especially in identifying problems and develop alternative solutions. The methodology used to arrange this article is Systematic Literature Review (SLR). First, researcher find relevant theories, and then make a conclusion about it, then analyzing, and finally make a new information based researcher analyzing.

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