scholarly journals Planning for climate change through additions to a national protected area network: implications for cost and configuration

2020 ◽  
Vol 375 (1794) ◽  
pp. 20190117 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua J. Lawler ◽  
D. Scott Rinnan ◽  
Julia L. Michalak ◽  
John C. Withey ◽  
Christopher R. Randels ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Adaptation Strategy ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Area Network ◽  
Reserve Network ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Conservation Plans ◽  
The Cost

Expanding the network of protected areas is a core strategy for conserving biodiversity in the face of climate change. Here, we explore the impacts on reserve network cost and configuration associated with planning for climate change in the USA using networks that prioritize areas projected to be climatically suitable for 1460 species both today and into the future, climatic refugia and areas likely to facilitate climate-driven species movements. For 14% of the species, networks of sites selected solely to protect areas currently climatically suitable failed to provide climatically suitable habitat in the future. Protecting sites climatically suitable for species today and in the future significantly changed the distribution of priority sites across the USA—increasing relative protection in the northeast, northwest and central USA. Protecting areas projected to retain their climatic suitability for species cost 59% more than solely protecting currently suitable areas. Including all climatic refugia and 20% of areas that facilitate climate-driven movements increased the cost by another 18%. Our results indicate that protecting some types of climatic refugia may be a relatively inexpensive adaptation strategy. Moreover, although addressing climate change in conservation plans will have significant implications for the configuration of networks, the increased cost of doing so may be relatively modest. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Climate change and ecosystems: threats, opportunities and solutions’.

Planning for the Future in the Face of Climate Change

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 (2) ◽  
pp. 1-10
Author(s):  
Christopher Crockett ◽  
Paul Kohl ◽  
Julia Rockwell ◽  
Teresa DiGenova
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face

scholarly journals The Impact of Human Pressure and Climate Change on the Habitat Availability and Protection of Cypripedium (Orchidaceae) in Northeast China

Plants ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 84
Author(s):  
Huanchu Liu ◽  
Hans Jacquemyn ◽  
Xingyuan He ◽  
Wei Chen ◽  
Yanqing Huang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Northeast China ◽  
Habitat Destruction ◽  
Changbai Mountains ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Human Pressure ◽  
Terrestrial Orchids ◽  
The Future ◽  
Suitable Habitats ◽  
The Impact

Human pressure on the environment and climate change are two important factors contributing to species decline and overall loss of biodiversity. Orchids may be particularly vulnerable to human-induced losses of habitat and the pervasive impact of global climate change. In this study, we simulated the extent of the suitable habitat of three species of the terrestrial orchid genus Cypripedium in northeast China and assessed the impact of human pressure and climate change on the future distribution of these species. Cypripedium represents a genus of long-lived terrestrial orchids that contains several species with great ornamental value. Severe habitat destruction and overcollection have led to major population declines in recent decades. Our results showed that at present the most suitable habitats of the three species can be found in Da Xing’an Ling, Xiao Xing’an Ling and in the Changbai Mountains. Human activity was predicted to have the largest impact on species distributions in the Changbai Mountains. In addition, climate change was predicted to lead to a shift in distribution towards higher elevations and to an increased fragmentation of suitable habitats of the three investigated Cypripedium species in the study area. These results will be valuable for decision makers to identify areas that are likely to maintain viable Cypripedium populations in the future and to develop conservation strategies to protect the remaining populations of these enigmatic orchid species.

scholarly journals Widespread variation in heat tolerance and symbiont load are associated with growth tradeoffs in the coral Acropora hyacinthus in Palau

eLife ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 10 ◽  
Author(s):  
Brendan Cornwell ◽  
Katrina Armstrong ◽  
Nia S Walker ◽  
Marilla Lippert ◽  
Victor Nestor ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Habitat Restoration ◽  
Natural Resistance ◽  
Lower Growth ◽  
Coral Reef Resilience ◽  
The Face ◽  
Lower Growth Rate ◽  
Acropora Hyacinthus ◽  
The Cost

Climate change is dramatically changing ecosystem composition and productivity, leading scientists to consider the best approaches to map natural resistance and foster ecosystem resilience in the face of these changes. Here we present results from a large-scale experimental assessment of coral bleaching resistance, a critical trait for coral population persistence as oceans warm, in 221 colonies of the coral Acropora hyacinthus across 37 reefs in Palau. We find that bleaching resistant individuals inhabit most reefs but are found more often in warmer microhabitats. Our survey also found wide variation in symbiont concentration among colonies, and that colonies with lower symbiont load tended to be more bleaching resistant. By contrast, our data show that low symbiont load comes at the cost of lower growth rate, a tradeoff that may operate widely among corals across environments. Corals with high bleaching resistance have been suggested as a source for habitat restoration or selective breeding in order to increase coral reef resilience to climate change. Our maps show where these resilience corals can be found, but the existence of tradeoffs with heat resistance may suggest caution in unilateral use of this one trait in restoration.

Epilogue

2016 ◽  
pp. 119-122
Author(s):  
Christian W. McMillen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Climate Change ◽  
Lessons Learned ◽  
The Past ◽  
Public Health Infrastructure ◽  
Health Infrastructure ◽  
The World ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Face ◽  
New Challenges

There will be more pandemics. A pandemic might come from an old, familiar foe such as influenza or might emerge from a new source—a zoonosis that makes its way into humans, perhaps. The epilogue asks how the world will confront pandemics in the future. It is likely that patterns established long ago will re-emerge. But how will new challenges, like climate change, affect future pandemics and our ability to respond? Will lessons learned from the past help with plans for the future? One thing is clear: in the face of a serious pandemic much of the developing world’s public health infrastructure will be woefully overburdened. This must be addressed.

The Stern Review on Climate Change: Inconvenient Sensitivities

2009 ◽  
Vol 20 (5) ◽  
pp. 779-798 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergey Mityakov ◽  
Christof Rühl
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Time Preference ◽  
Complex Problem ◽  
Policy Choices ◽  
Subjective Judgement ◽  
The Face ◽  
Stern Review ◽  
The Cost ◽  
Parameter Values ◽  
Considerable Discussion

Nicholas Stern's Review of “The Economics of Climate Change” (2007) triggered considerable discussion, essentially by condensing a complex problem – the question of how to act in the face of global warming – into juxtaposing two numbers, the cost of mitigation and the cost of climate change. The Review concludes that mitigation today is economically superior to adaptation tomorrow. The review was widely criticized for the assumption of a pure rate of time preference of almost zero, on which its conclusions seemed to depend. In this paper we argue first, that this assumption discriminates against current in favour of future generations. Second, we perform a sensitivity analysis to test for the extent to which the conclusions of the Review are indeed based on the assumption of a rate of time preference of almost zero. We demonstrate that the conclusions of the Review are no longer valid as soon as parameter values are used which are standard in economic analysis. Combined, these results raise a bigger question: how wise is it to base crucial policy choices on a model so dependent on a single, deeply subjective, judgement call?

scholarly journals Conservation in the face of climate change: recent developments

F1000Research ◽  
2015 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 1158 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joshua Lawler ◽  
James Watson ◽  
Edward Game
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Extinction Risk ◽  
New States ◽  
Recent Developments ◽  
Conservation Actions ◽  
The Face ◽  
Extinction Risk Assessment ◽  
Basic Approaches ◽  
Conservation Plans ◽  
Impacts Of Climate Change

An increased understanding of the current and potential future impacts of climate change has significantly influenced conservation in practice in recent years. Climate change has necessitated a shift toward longer planning time horizons, moving baselines, and evolving conservation goals and targets. This shift has resulted in new perspectives on, and changes in, the basic approaches practitioners use to conserve biodiversity. Restoration, spatial planning and reserve selection, connectivity modelling, extinction risk assessment, and species translocations have all been reimagined in the face of climate change. Restoration is being conducted with a new acceptance of uncertainty and an understanding that goals will need to shift through time. New conservation targets, such as geophysical settings and climatic refugia, are being incorporated into conservation plans. Risk assessments have begun to consider the potentially synergistic impacts of climate change and other threats. Assisted colonization has gained acceptance in recent years as a viable and necessary conservation tool. This evolution has paralleled a larger trend in conservation—a shift toward conservation actions that benefit both people and nature. As we look forward, it is clear that more change is on the horizon. To protect biodiversity and essential ecosystem services, conservation will need to anticipate the human response to climate change and to focus not only on resistance and resilience but on transitions to new states and new ecosystems.

scholarly journals Changes in the Geographic Distribution of the Diana Fritillary (Speyeria diana: Nymphalidae) Under Forecasted Predictions of Climate Change

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carrie Wells ◽  
David Tonkyn
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
North America ◽  
Geographic Distribution ◽  
Ecological Niche ◽  
Ecological Niche Modeling ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Butterfly Species ◽  
Operating Characteristics ◽  
Southeastern Us ◽  
The Future

Climate change is predicted to alter the geographic distribution of a wide variety of taxa, including butterfly species. Research has focused primarily on high latitude species in North America, with no known studies examining responses of taxa in the southeastern US. The Diana fritillary (Speyeria diana) has experienced a recent range retraction in that region, disappearing from lowland sites and now persisting in two, phylogenetically disjunct mountainous regions. These findings are consistent with the predicted effects of a warming climate on numerous taxa, including other butterfly species in North America and Europe. We used ecological niche modeling to predict future changes to the distribution of S. diana under several climate models. To evaluate how climate change might influence the geographic distribution of this butterfly, we developed ecological niche models using Maxent. We used two global circulation models, CCSM and MIROC, under low and high emissions scenarios to predict the future distribution of S. diana. Models were evaluated using the Receiver Operating Characteristics Area Under Curve test and the True Skill Statistics (mean AUC = 0.91± 0.0028 SE, TSS = 0.87 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 4.5, and mean AUC = 0.87± 0.0031SE, TSS = 0.84 ± 0.0032 SE for RCP = 8.5), which both indicate that the models we produced were significantly better than random (0.5). The four modeled climate scenarios resulted in an average loss of 91% of suitable habitat for S. diana by 2050. Populations in the Southern Appalachian Mountains were predicted to suffer the most severe fragmentation and reduction in suitable habitat, threatening an important source of genetic diversity for the species. The geographic and genetic isolation of populations in the west suggest that those populations are equally as vulnerable to decline in the future, warranting ongoing conservation of those populations as well. Our results suggest that the Diana fritillary is under threat of decline by 2050 across its entire distribution from climate change, and is likely to be negatively affected by other human-induced factors as well.

scholarly journals Trailing-edge zombie forests can increase population persistence in the face of climate change

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robin R. Decker ◽  
Marissa L. Baskett ◽  
Alan Hastings
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Maximum Rate ◽  
Population Persistence ◽  
Spatially Explicit ◽  
Suitable Habitat ◽  
Trailing Edge ◽  
Left Behind ◽  
Range Edge ◽  
The Face ◽  
Range Core

Climate-driven habitat shifts pose challenges for dispersal-limited, late-maturing taxa such as trees. Older trees are often the most reproductive individuals in the population, but as habitats shift, these individuals can be left behind in the trailing range edge, generating "zombie forests" that may persist long after the suitable habitat has shifted. Are these zombie forests vestiges of ecosystems past or do they play an ecological role? To understand how zombie forests affect population persistence, we developed a spatially explicit, stage-structured model of tree populations occupying a shifting habitat. Our model shows that seed dispersal from zombie forests to the range core can considerably increase the maximum rate of climate change that a population can withstand. Moreover, the entire core population can ultimately descend from recruitment-limited zombie forests, highlighting their demographic value. Our results suggest that preserving trailing-edge zombie forests can greatly increase population persistence in the face of climate change.

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