scholarly journals Analysis of the epidemic growth of the early 2019-nCoV outbreak using internationally confirmed cases

Author(s):  
Qingyuan Zhao ◽  
Yang Chen ◽  
Dylan S Small

AbstractBackgroundOn January 23, 2020, a quarantine was imposed on travel in and out of Wuhan, where the 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) outbreak originated from. Previous analyses estimated the basic epidemiological parameters using symptom onset dates of the confirmed cases in Wuhan and outside China.MethodsWe obtained information on the 46 coronavirus cases who traveled from Wuhan before January 23 and have been subsequently confirmed in Hong Kong, Japan, Korea, Macau, Singapore, and Taiwan as of February 5, 2020. Most cases have detailed travel history and disease progress. Compared to previous analyses, an important distinction is that we used this data to informatively simulate the infection time of each case using the symptom onset time, previously reported incubation interval, and travel history. We then fitted a simple exponential growth model with adjustment for the January 23 travel ban to the distribution of the simulated infection time. We used a Bayesian analysis with diffuse priors to quantify the uncertainty of the estimated epidemiological parameters. We performed sensitivity analysis to different choices of incubation interval and the hyperparameters in the prior specification.ResultsWe found that our model provides good fit to the distribution of the infection time. Assuming the travel rate to the selected countries and regions is constant over the study period, we found that the epidemic was doubling in size every 2.9 days (95% credible interval [CrI], 2 days—4.1 days). Using previously reported serial interval for 2019-nCoV, the estimated basic reproduction number is 5.7 (95% CrI, 3.4—9.2). The estimates did not change substantially if we assumed the travel rate doubled in the last 3 days before January 23, when we used previously reported incubation interval for severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS), or when we changed the hyperparameters in our prior specification.ConclusionsOur estimated epidemiological parameters are higher than an earlier report using confirmed cases in Wuhan. This indicates the 2019-nCoV could have been spreading faster than previous estimates.

Author(s):  
June Young Chun ◽  
Gyuseung Baek ◽  
Yongdai Kim

AbstractObjectivesThe distribution of the transmission onset of COVID-19 relative to the symptom onset is a key parameter for infection control. It is often not easy to study the transmission onset time, as is difficult to know who infected whom exactly when.MethodsWe inferred transmission onset time from 72 infector-infectee pairs in South Korea, either with known or inferred contact dates by means of incubation period. Combining this data with known information of infector’s symptom onset, we could generate the transmission onset distribution of COVID-19, using Bayesian methods. Serial interval distribution could be automatically estimated from our data.ResultsWe estimated the median transmission onset to be 1.31 days (standard deviation, 2.64 days) after symptom onset with peak at 0.72 days before symptom onset. The pre-symptomatic transmission proportion was 37% (95% credible interval [CI], 16–52%). The median incubation period was estimated to be 2.87 days (95% CI, 2.33–3.50 days) and the median serial interval to be 3.56 days (95% CI, 2.72–4.44 days).ConclusionsConsidering the transmission onset distribution peaked with the symptom onset and the pre-symptomatic transmission proportion is substantial, the usual preventive measure might be too late to prevent SARS-CoV-2 transmission.


2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jantien A Backer ◽  
Don Klinkenberg ◽  
Jacco Wallinga

A novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) is causing an outbreak of viral pneumonia that started in Wuhan, China. Using the travel history and symptom onset of 88 confirmed cases that were detected outside Wuhan in the early outbreak phase, we estimate the mean incubation period to be 6.4 days (95% credible interval: 5.6–7.7), ranging from 2.1 to 11.1 days (2.5th to 97.5th percentile). These values should help inform 2019-nCoV case definitions and appropriate quarantine durations.


Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dot Bluma ◽  
Jessica Link Reeve ◽  
Susan M Godersky

Background and Purpose: In a systems of care model, Emergency Medical Services (EMS) reporting a patient’s last known well (LKW) time to the receiving hospital is crucial for activation of the hospitals Acute Stroke Team. There is evidence that LKW is critical information for determining an acute ischemic stroke patient’s eligibility for advanced stroke therapy which includes intravenous Alteplase and/or mechanical endovascular reperfusion therapy. The 70 Wisconsin (WI) Coverdell Stroke Program (Coverdell) hospitals represent 80% of stroke admissions in WI. Coverdell developed a pre-arrival report card in Q3 2018 in which LKW was a tracked measure. Data entered into Get With The Guidelines®- Special Initiatives (SI) tab was collated to create the report card. After analysis of the data it was determined our performance improvement (PI) project would be to improve EMS’s documentation and reporting of time LKW. In Q3 2018, of those cases entered into the SI tab, EMS reporting a LKW time was 50%. Since LKW is not always obtainable, the project goal was set at 60%. Methods: We recognized implementation of this PI initiative would require a multi-prong approach. To assist EMS agencies in understanding the difference between LKW and symptom onset, we developed a document entitled, The Importance of an Accurate Last Known Well and Symptom Onset Time . A Coverdell team member attended WI’s EMS Physician Advisory Committee meetings where LKW data was discussed. In addition, an Emergency Department Physician hosted a webinar where the presentation highlighted the importance of documenting LKW. This webinar was recorded and sent to EMS agencies and hospitals. For loop closure and with the support of the WI’s EMS Director, LKW became a validated field for EMS in the WI Ambulance Run Data System. Findings: In Q2 2019 there was an improvement in documented LKW as evidenced by an increase to 59.2% The data has remained consistent even as more hospitals have begun to enter the data as demonstrated by the increasing N. Conclusion: The actions taken by the Coverdell program in educating EMS providers on the rationale and importance of LKW documentation was successful. However, additional efforts are required to reach and maintain the project goal of 60% with an additional stretch goal to 70%.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Padoan ◽  
Chiara Cosma ◽  
Paolo Zaupa ◽  
Mario Plebani

BackgroundAbstractReliable SARS-CoV-2 serological assays are required for diagnosing infections, for the serosurveillance of past exposures and for assessing the response to future vaccines. In this study, the analytical and clinical performances of a chemiluminescent immunoassays for SARS-CoV-2 IgM and IgG detection (Mindray CL-1200i), targeting Nucleocapsid (N) and receptor binding domain (RBD) portion of the Spike protein, were evaluated.MethodsPrecision and linearity were evaluated using standardized procedures. A total of 157 leftover serum samples from 81 hospitalized confirmed COVID-19 patients (38 with moderate and 43 with severe disease) and 76 SARS-CoV-2 negative subjects (44 healthcare workers, 20 individuals with rheumatic disorders, 12 pregnant women) were included in the study. In an additional series of 44 SARS-CoV-2 positive, IgM and IgG time kinetics were also evaluated in a time-period of 38 days.ResultsPrecision was below or equal to 4% for both IgM and IgG, in all the studied levels, whilst a slightly significant deviation from linearity was observed for both assays in the range of values covering the manufacturer’s cut-off. Considering a time frame ≥ 12 days post symptom onset, sensitivity and specificity for IgM were 92.3% (95%CI:79.1%-98.4%) and 92.1% (95%CI:83.6%-97.0%). In the same time frame, sensitivity and specificity for IgG were 100% (95%CI:91.0%-100%) and 93.4% (95%CI:85.3%-97.8%). The assays agreement was 73.9% (Cohen’s kappa of 0.373). Time kinetics showed a substantial overlapping of IgM and IgG response, the latter values being elevated up to 38 days from symptoms onset.ConclusionsAnalytical imprecision is satisfactory as well as the linearity, particularly when taking into account the fact that both assays are claimed to be qualitative. Diagnostic sensitivity of IgG was excellent, especially considering specimens collected ≥12 days post symptom onset. Time kinetics suggest that IgM and IgG are detectable early in the course of infection, but the role of SARS-CoV-2 antibodies in clinical practice still requires further evaluations.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hari Hwang ◽  
Jun-Sik Lim ◽  
Sun-Ah Song ◽  
Chiara Achangwa ◽  
Woobeom Sim ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 is now the predominant variant worldwide. However, its transmission dynamics remain unclear. Methods We analyzed all case patients in local clusters and temporal patterns of viral shedding using contact tracing data from 405 cases associated with the delta variant of SARS-CoV-2 between 22 June and 31 July 2021 in Daejeon, South Korea. Results Overall, half of the cases were aged under 19 years, and 20% were asymptomatic at the time of epidemiological investigation. We estimated the mean serial interval as 3.26 days (95% credible interval 2.92, 3.60), and 12% of the transmission occurred before symptom onset of the infector. We identified six clustered outbreaks, and all were associated with indoor facilities. In 23 household contacts, the secondary attack rate was 63% (52/82). We estimated that 15% (95% confidence interval, 13–18%) of cases seeded 80% of all local transmission. Analysis of the nasopharyngeal swab samples identified virus shedding from asymptomatic patients, and the highest viral load was observed two days after symptom onset. The temporal pattern of viral shedding did not differ between children and adults (P = 0.48). Conclusions Our findings suggest that the delta variant is highly transmissible in indoor settings and households. Rapid contact tracing, isolation of the asymptomatic contacts, and strict adherence to public health measures are needed to mitigate the community transmission of the delta variant.


Stroke ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 52 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jessica Greenwood ◽  
Starlie Belnap ◽  
Rodney Bedgio ◽  
Guilherme Dabus ◽  
Italo Linfante ◽  
...  

Introduction: It is unclear how the interventions designed to restrict community and in-hospital exposure to the SARS-CoV-2 virus affected the care for stroke patients seeking acute treatment. The objective of the following study was to determine the impact COVID-19 has had on the treatment times for patients evaluated as acute stroke alerts at Baptist Hospital of Miami (BHM). A co-primary objective of the study was to assess the risk of contracting SARS-CoV-2 within 2 weeks from hospital discharge. Methods: This retrospective, two phase study was conducted between December 2019 and April 2020. In phase one, we assessed time from symptom onset to hospital arrival, number of strokes with witnessed onset, and in-hospital treatment times pre & post implementation of Covid-19 preventive exposure measures. In phase two of the study, a telephone survey was conducted on the post implementation group to assess the risk of patients developing symptoms or testing positive for SARS-CoV-2 from hospital admission up to two weeks post discharge. Results: Phase I demonstrated there was a 40% decline in stroke volume, but no significant delay to seek medical attention post implementation of the SARS prevention strategies. On average individuals in the pre-group (n=155) waited approximately 260 minutes (SE=24) to seek medical attention vs. 203 minutes (SE=27) minutes for the post-group (n=87). However, there was nearly a six-fold increase in the percentage of cases with unknown symptom onset post implementation of COVID-19 safety precautions. There was significant delay in administering IV alteplase, increasing from 24 mins (n=16) to 33 mins (n=21) post implementation; delays observed for endovascular treatment were not significant (pre, n=13 mean= 73 mins, post n=12 mean= 82 mins). The volume of patients treated with either IV alteplase and/or endovascular treatment remained similar. Phase II of the study is on-going, results will be available for the ISC. Discussion: The COVID-19 crisis in our community was associated with a six-fold increase in the percentage of cases with unknown stroke onset time. Besides a marked decrease in stroke volume, we did not evidence significant delays to either seek or provide acute stroke care outside a modest increase in door to needle time.


Stroke ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 51 (Suppl_1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aristeidis H Katsanos ◽  
Konark Malhotra ◽  
Amrou Sarraj ◽  
Andrew Barreto ◽  
Martin Köhrmann ◽  
...  

Introduction: We sought to assess the utility of intravenous thrombolysis (IVT) treatment in acute ischemic stroke (AIS) patients with unclear symptom onset time or outside the 4.5 hour time window, selected by advanced neuroimaging. Methods: We performed random-effects meta-analyses on the unadjusted and adjusted for potential confounders associations of IVT (alteplase 0.9 mg/kg) with the following outcomes: 3-month favorable functional outcome [FFO, modified Rankin Scale (mRS) scores: 0-1], 3-month functional independence (FI, mRS-scores: 0-2), 3-month mortality, 3-month functional improvement (assessed with ordinal analysis on the mRS-scores), symptomatic intracranial hemorrhage (sICH) and complete recanalization (CR). Results: We identified 4 eligible RCTs (859 total patients). In unadjusted analyses IVT was associated with higher likelihood of 3-month FFO (OR=1.48, 95%CI:1.12-1.96), FI (OR=1.42, 95%CI:1.07-1.90), sICH (OR=5.28, 95%CI:1.35-20.68) and CR (OR=3.29, 95%CI:1.90-5.69), with no significant difference in the odds of all-cause mortality risk at three months (OR=1.75, 95%CI: 0.93-3.29). In the adjusted analyses IVT was also associated with higher odds of 3-month FFO (OR adj =1.62, 95%CI:1.20-2.20), functional improvement (OR adj =1.42, 95%CI: 1.11-1.81) and sICH (OR adj =6.22, 95%CI: 1.37-28.26). There was no association between IVT and FI (OR adj =1.61, 95%CI: 0.94-2.75) or all-cause mortality at three months (OR adj =1.75, 95%CI: 0.93-3.29). No evidence of heterogeneity was evident in any of the analyses (I 2 =0). Conclusion: IVT in AIS patients with unknown symptom onset time or elapsed time from symptom onset more than 4.5 hours, selected with advanced neuroimaging, results in a higher likelihood of complete recanalization and functional improvement at three months despite the increased risk of sICH.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Adeshina Israel Adekunle ◽  
Oyelola Adegboye ◽  
Ezra Gayawan ◽  
Emma McBryde

Following the importation of Covid-19 into Nigeria on the 27 February 2020 and then the outbreak, the question is: how do we anticipate the progression of the ongoing epidemics following all the intervention measures put in place? This kind of question is appropriate for public health responses and it will depend on the early estimates of the key epidemiological parameters of the virus in a defined population. In this study, we combined a likelihood-based method using a Bayesian framework and compartmental model of the epidemic of Covid-19 in Nigeria to estimate the effective reproduction number (R(t)) and basic reproduction number (R_0). This also enables us to estimate the daily transmission rate (β) that determines the effect of social distancing. We further estimate the reported fraction of symptomatic cases. The models are applied to the NCDC data on Covid-19 symptomatic and death cases from 27 February 2020 and 7 May 2020. In this period, the effective reproduction number is estimated with a minimum value of 0.18 and a maximum value of 1.78. Most importantly, the R(t) is strictly greater than one from April 13 till 7 May 2020. The R_0 is estimated to be 2.42 with credible interval: (2.37, 2.47). Comparing this with the R(t) shows that control measures are working but not effective enough to keep R(t) below one. Also, the estimated fractional reported symptomatic cases are between 10 to 50%. Our analysis has shown evidence that the existing control measures are not enough to end the epidemic and more stringent measures are needed.


Blood ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 132 (Supplement 1) ◽  
pp. 4879-4879
Author(s):  
Michael James Vernon ◽  
Kevin H. M. Kuo ◽  
Rebecca Leroux ◽  
Christopher J. Patriquin

Abstract Introduction: Paroxysmal nocturnal hemoglobinuria (PNH) is a rare disease caused by mutations that impair formation of GPI anchors. Absence of GPI-linked molecules CD55 and CD59 renders blood cells sensitive to complement-mediated damage. The classic presentation includes intravascular hemolysis, thrombophilia, and marrow failure. Other symptoms, such as fatigue, dysphagia, and abdominal pain may also occur. Eculizumab inhibits complement protein C5 and has drastically improved outcomes in PNH. Despite greater awareness of PNH since eculizumab's approval, it remains a rare disease and patients may go years without a diagnosis. To investigate this, we reviewed our centre's experience to identify areas that could be improved upon. Methods: A retrospective review was completed of PNH patients followed at our centre over the last 5 years. Data was collected via chart review and interviews. Information collected included age of symptom onset, time from symptoms to assessment, hematology referral, diagnosis, and to start of therapy. Laboratory investigations were also recorded. Patients with small clones (<10%) were excluded as they would not qualify for eculizumab. Results: Nine patients were enrolled (6 male, 3 female). Table 1 summarizes their presenting features. For reference, the same categories are presented for Canadian patients in the International PNH Registry. Figure 1 shows symptom progression from onset, diagnosis, and start of therapy. Average age at symptom onset was 38.2±20.5 years. Cytopenia was the most common presentation (78%). Dark urine occurred in 88%. Three patients (33%) reported fatigue as their first symptom. One, with aplastic anemia (AA) and treated with immunosuppression, developed abdominal pain and dark urine 7 years later and was found to have PNH despite negative initial testing. Table 2 summarizes individual patient timelines for diagnosis and treatment. Average time from initial symptom to medical assessment was 2.7±6.6 years, though 7 (78%) presented within several weeks. One did not present until 20 years after anemia and jaundice occurred, as she was asymptomatic. Another patient waited 4 years before assessment because he occasionally experienced dark urine with exertion and attributed this to exercise. Median duration from presentation to diagnosis was 3 years (range: 0.05-30); however, 3 (33%) patients were diagnosed within one month. One was diagnosed when he presented with worsening anemia one year after initial presentation. Another presented in 1975 with renal dysfunction, underwent extensive evaluation, but not diagnosed with PNH for 30 years. Dark urine with anemia prompted evaluation in 79%. Three reported abdominal pain, 22% jaundice, 22% dysphagia, 11% dyspnea, and 67% were fatigued. Only one patient in our cohort developed thromboembolism (11%), compared to 19% of Canadians in the International PNH Registry. This patient was anemic and jaundiced for many years but only after developing hepatic vein thrombosis was she was evaluated for PNH. Patients saw a median of 4 health care providers (HCP) (range: 2-8) before diagnosis. Six saw general practitioners (GP) and emergency physicians before hematology and 3 saw other specialists first. One saw dermatology for a rash not initially realized to be thrombocytopenic petechiae. He was then referred to hematology after developing severe anemia as well. One saw several nephrologists for dark urine; he was diagnosed with glomerulonephritis, and this was not re-evaluated for 20 years. One saw urology and gastroenterology before hematology referral. Two were worked up for PNH after their GPs retired and were reviewed by new ones. Eight patients (89%) are currently on eculizumab. One does not meet funding criteria. The average time between diagnosis and initiation of therapy was 1.3±1.7 years. Conclusion: PNH is rare and can present in heterogeneous ways. Outside hematology, HCPs may rarely encounter patients, if ever. Time interval between onset of symptoms to formal diagnosis in our cohort had the greatest duration and variation. Once diagnosed, all patients in our cohort were initiated on therapy quite rapidly save for one who had a nine-year delay between diagnosis and availability of eculizumab in Canada. The greatest delay in this cohort was the time from symptom onset to diagnosis, suggesting that a focus on increasing awareness of PNH may be the area where most efforts should be placed. Disclosures Patriquin: Octapharma: Honoraria; Alexion Pharmaceuticals, Inc.: Consultancy, Honoraria, Other: Travel Support and is site investigator for clinical trials with the company; Ra Pharmaceuticals: Consultancy, Research Funding.


2020 ◽  
Vol 25 (40) ◽  
Author(s):  
Qing-Bin Lu ◽  
Yong Zhang ◽  
Ming-Jin Liu ◽  
Hai-Yang Zhang ◽  
Neda Jalali ◽  
...  

Background The natural history of disease in patients infected with severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) remained obscure during the early pandemic. Aim Our objective was to estimate epidemiological parameters of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) and assess the relative infectivity of the incubation period. Methods We estimated the distributions of four epidemiological parameters of SARS-CoV-2 transmission using a large database of COVID-19 cases and potential transmission pairs of cases, and assessed their heterogeneity by demographics, epidemic phase and geographical region. We further calculated the time of peak infectivity and quantified the proportion of secondary infections during the incubation period. Results The median incubation period was 7.2 (95% confidence interval (CI): 6.9‒7.5) days. The median serial and generation intervals were similar, 4.7 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.3) and 4.6 (95% CI: 4.2‒5.1) days, respectively. Paediatric cases < 18 years had a longer incubation period than adult age groups (p = 0.007). The median incubation period increased from 4.4 days before 25 January to 11.5 days after 31 January (p < 0.001), whereas the median serial (generation) interval contracted from 5.9 (4.8) days before 25 January to 3.4 (3.7) days after. The median time from symptom onset to discharge was also shortened from 18.3 before 22 January to 14.1 days after. Peak infectivity occurred 1 day before symptom onset on average, and the incubation period accounted for 70% of transmission. Conclusion The high infectivity during the incubation period led to short generation and serial intervals, necessitating aggressive control measures such as early case finding and quarantine of close contacts.


Sign in / Sign up

Export Citation Format

Share Document