scholarly journals Forecasting Ultra-early Intensive Care Strain from COVID-19 in England, v1.1.4

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob Deasy ◽  
Emma Rocheteau ◽  
Katharina Kohler ◽  
Daniel J. Stubbs ◽  
Pietro Barbiero ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Exponential Growth ◽  
Short Range ◽  
Policy Decision ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Model Specification ◽  
North West ◽  
North East

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented strain on intensive care unit (ICU) admission in parts of the world. Strategies to create surge ICU capacity require complex local and national service reconfiguration and reduction or cancellation of elective activity. These measures have an inevitable lag-time before additional capacity comes on-line. An accurate short-range forecast would be helpful in guiding such difficult, costly, and ethically challenging decisions.At the time this work began, cases in England were starting to increase. If this represents a true spread in disease then ICU demand could increase rapidly. Here we present a short-range forecast based on published real-time COVID-19 case data from the seven National Health Service (NHS) commissioning regions in England (East of England, London, Midlands, North East and Yorkshire, North West, South East and South West). We use a Monte Carlo approach to model the likely impact of current diagnoses on regional ICU capacity over a 14-day horizon under the assumption that the increase in cases represents the start of an exponential growth in infections. Our model is designed to be parsimonious and based on available epidemiological data from the literature at the moment.On the basis of the modelling assumptions made, ICU occupancy is likely to increase dramatically in the days following the time of modelling. If the current exponential growth continues, case numbers will be comparable to current ICU bed numbers within weeks. Despite variable growth in absolute patients, all commissioning regions are forecast to be heavily burdened under the assumptions used.Whilst, like any forecast model, there remain uncertainties both in terms of model specification and robust epidemiological data in this early prospective phase, it would seem that surge capacity will be required in the very near future. Our findings should be interpreted with caution, but we hope that our model will help policy decision makers with their preparations. The uncertainties in the data highlight the urgent need for ongoing real-time surveillance to allow forecasts to be constantly updated using high quality local patient-facing data as it emerges.

scholarly journals First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Megna
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The North ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Collaborative Efforts

Abstract Background: The first outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people in the World. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service. Methods: We analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 30 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative logistic distribution. We then produced an estimate of the overall number of potentially infected individuals and epidemic duration at a national and Regional level, for the most affected Regions. Results: We reported the daily distribution of performed swabs and confirmed cases, and the cumulative distribution of confirmed cases, of patients quarantined at home (43.0%), hospitalized in non-intensive care (27.3%), recovered or discharged (14.4%), deceased (11.4%), and hospitalized in intensive care (3.9%). The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 130,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic greater than 2 months. Conclusions: Once month after the first outbreaks there seems to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic.

scholarly journals First month of the epidemic caused by COVID-19 in Italy: current status and real-time outbreak development forecast

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rosario Megna
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Forecast Model ◽  
Cumulative Distribution ◽  
Current Status ◽  
Logistic Distribution ◽  
Infected People ◽  
The North ◽  
Heavy Burden ◽  
Collaborative Efforts

AbstractBackgroundThe first outbreaks of COVID-19 in Italy occurred during the second half of February 2020 in some areas in the North of the country. Due to the high contagiousness of the infection, further spread by asymptomatic people, Italy has become in a few weeks the country with the greatest number of infected people after China. The large number of severe cases among infected people in Italy led to the hospitalization of thousands of patients, with a heavy burden on the National Health Service.MethodsWe analyzed data provided daily by Italian Authorities for the period from 24 February 2020 to 26 March 2020. Considering such information, we developed a forecast model in real-time, based on the cumulative logistic distribution. We then produced an estimate of the overall number of potentially infected individuals and epidemic duration at a national and Regional level, for the most affected Regions.ResultsWe reported the daily distribution of performed swabs and confirmed cases, and the cumulative distribution of confirmed cases, of patients quarantined at home (42%), hospitalized in non-intensive care (31%), recovered or discharged (13%), deceased (10%), and hospitalized in intensive care (4%). The forecast model estimated a number of infected persons for Italy of 115,000 about, and a duration of the epidemic not less than 2 months.ConclusionsOnce month after the first outbreaks there seems to be the first signs of a decrease in the number of infections, showing that we could be now facing the descending phase of the epidemic. The forecast obtained thanks to our model could be used by decision-makers to implement coordinative and collaborative efforts in order to control the epidemic.

A new volcanic province: evidence from glacial erratics in western North Greenland

2000 ◽  
pp. 35-41 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter R. Dawes ◽  
Bjørn Thomassen ◽  
T.I. Hauge Andersson
Keyword(s):  
Volcanic Rocks ◽  
Iron Formation ◽  
Banded Iron Formation ◽  
Common Component ◽  
Volcanic Province ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
Surficial Deposits ◽  
North Greenland

NOTE: This article was published in a former series of GEUS Bulletin. Please use the original series name when citing this article, for example: Dawes, P. R., Thomassen, B., & Andersson, T. H. (2000). A new volcanic province: evidence from glacial erratics in western North Greenland. Geology of Greenland Survey Bulletin, 186, 35-41. https://doi.org/10.34194/ggub.v186.5213 _______________ Mapping and regional geological studies in northern Greenland were carried out during the project Kane Basin 1999 (see Dawes et al. 2000, this volume). During ore geological studies in Washington Land by one of us (B.T.), finds of erratics of banded iron formation (BIF) directed special attention to the till, glaciofluvial and fluvial sediments. This led to the discovery that in certain parts of Daugaard-Jensen Land and Washington Land volcanic rocks form a common component of the surficial deposits, with particularly colourful, red porphyries catching the eye. The presence of BIF is interesting but not altogether unexpected since BIF erratics have been reported from southern Hall Land just to the north-east (Kelly & Bennike 1992) and such rocks crop out in the Precambrian shield of North-West Greenland to the south (Fig. 1; Dawes 1991). On the other hand, the presence of volcanic erratics was unexpected and stimulated the work reported on here.

Stratigraphy, structure and geochemistry of Archaean supracrustal rocks from Oqaatsut and Naajaat Qaqqaat, north-east Disko Bugt, West Greenland

1999 ◽  
pp. 65-78
Author(s):  
Henrik Rasmussen ◽  
Lars Frimodt Pedersen
Keyword(s):  
Tectonic Setting ◽  
Trace Element Geochemistry ◽  
Element Geochemistry ◽  
West Greenland ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
Metavolcanic Rocks ◽  
Arc Setting ◽  
Area North ◽  
Back Arc

NOTE: This article was published in a former series of GEUS Bulletin. Please use the original series name when citing this article, for example: Rasmussen, H., & Frimodt Pedersen, L. (1999). Stratigraphy, structure and geochemistry of Archaean supracrustal rocks from Oqaatsut and Naajaat Qaqqaat, north-east Disko Bugt, West Greenland. Geology of Greenland Survey Bulletin, 181, 65-78. https://doi.org/10.34194/ggub.v181.5114 _______________ Two Archaean supracrustal sequences in the area north-east of Disko Bugt, c. 1950 and c. 800 m in thickness, are dominated by pelitic and semipelitic mica schists, interlayered with basic metavolcanic rocks. A polymict conglomerate occurs locally at the base of one of the sequences. One of the supracrustal sequences has undergone four phases of deformation; the other three phases. In both sequences an early phase, now represented by isoclinal folds, was followed by north-west-directed thrusting. A penetrative deformation represented by upright to steeply inclined folds is only recognised in one of the sequences. Steep, brittle N–S and NW–SE striking faults transect all rock units including late stage dolerites and lamprophyres. Investigation of major- and trace-element geochemistry based on discrimination diagrams for tectonic setting suggests that both metasediments and metavolcanic rocks were deposited in an environment similar to a modern back-arc setting.

scholarly journals Characterisation of Textile Embedded Electrodes for Use in a Neonatal Smart Mattress Electrocardiography System

Sensors ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (3) ◽  
pp. 999
Author(s):  
Henry Dore ◽  
Rodrigo Aviles-Espinosa ◽  
Zhenhua Luo ◽  
Oana Anton ◽  
Heike Rabe ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Heart Rate ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
High Resolution ◽  
Neonatal Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Neonatal Intensive Care ◽  
Delivery Room ◽  
Proof Of Concept ◽  
Heart Rate Monitoring

Heart rate monitoring is the predominant quantitative health indicator of a newborn in the delivery room. A rapid and accurate heart rate measurement is vital during the first minutes after birth. Clinical recommendations suggest that electrocardiogram (ECG) monitoring should be widely adopted in the neonatal intensive care unit to reduce infant mortality and improve long term health outcomes in births that require intervention. Novel non-contact electrocardiogram sensors can reduce the time from birth to heart rate reading as well as providing unobtrusive and continuous monitoring during intervention. In this work we report the design and development of a solution to provide high resolution, real time electrocardiogram data to the clinicians within the delivery room using non-contact electric potential sensors embedded in a neonatal intensive care unit mattress. A real-time high-resolution electrocardiogram acquisition solution based on a low power embedded system was developed and textile embedded electrodes were fabricated and characterised. Proof of concept tests were carried out on simulated and human cardiac signals, producing electrocardiograms suitable for the calculation of heart rate having an accuracy within ±1 beat per minute using a test ECG signal, ECG recordings from a human volunteer with a correlation coefficient of ~ 87% proved accurate beat to beat morphology reproduction of the waveform without morphological alterations and a time from application to heart rate display below 6 s. This provides evidence that flexible non-contact textile-based electrodes can be embedded in wearable devices for assisting births through heart rate monitoring and serves as a proof of concept for a complete neonate electrocardiogram monitoring system.

scholarly journals DISTRIBUTION AND RACE COMPOSITION OF DOWNY MILDEW (Plasmopara halstedii (Farl.) Berl. and de Toni) IN BULGARIA / EXTENSION Y RAZAS DEL MILDIU (Plasmopara halstedii (Farl.) Berl. y de Toni) EN BULGARIA / ÉTENDUE ET RACES DE LA ROUILLE (Plasmopara halstedii (Farl.) Berl. and de Toni) EN BULGARIE

Helia ◽  
2000 ◽  
Vol 23 (33) ◽  
pp. 25-32
Author(s):  
P.S. Shindrova
Keyword(s):  
Downy Mildew ◽  
Resistance Gene ◽  
The Other ◽  
Plasmopara Halstedii ◽  
North West ◽  
North East ◽  
Race 1 ◽  
Race 2 ◽  
Production Areas ◽  
Number Of Authors

SUMMARY Downy mildew caused by the fungus Plasmopara halstedii is the main disease on sunflower in Bulgaria. In recent years a number of authors have reported the occurrence of new more virulent races of the pathogen. According to other authors these races demonstrate resistance to the fungicides used up to now. This fact is rather alarming and imposes the necessity of annual researches with the aim of following the changes in the downy mildew race variability. In the period 1995-1997 downy mildew isolates were collected from the following locations: Bourgas, Boyanovo, Karnobat, Ognyanovo, Selanovtsi, Kroushari, Lovech, Koubrat, Brashlyan, Sitovo, Tervel, Targovishte, IWS “Dobroudja” and Dobrich. The samples were assessed for virulence on a set of sunflower differential - lines under greenhouse conditions. The obtained results do not reveal a great race variability of downy mildew population in Bulgaria. In the period of study two races of the pathogen were identified: race 1 which infects the differential lines without genes for resistance to the pathogen. It is distributed in all sunflower production areas of the country. The other one is race 2. It is of limited distribution and has been registered in individual fields of north-east and north-west Bulgaria. It attacks the differential lines carrying the resistance gene Pl-1.

Excavations at Fishbourne, 1963. Third Interim Report

1964 ◽  
Vol 44 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-8
Keyword(s):  
Interim Report ◽  
The West ◽  
Civic Society ◽  
North West ◽  
The Third ◽  
North East ◽  
The North ◽  
The Future ◽  
Set Up

Early in 1963 much of the land occupied by the Roman building at Fishbourne was purchased by Mr. I. D. Margary, M.A., F.S.A., and was given to the Sussex Archaeological Trust. The Fishbourne Committee of the trust was set up to administer the future of the site. The third season's excavation, carried out at the desire of this committee, was again organized by the Chichester Civic Society.1 About fifty volunteers a day were employed from 24th July to 3rd September. Excavation concentrated upon three main areas; the orchard south of the east wing excavated in 1962, the west end of the north wing, and the west wing. In addition, trial trenches were dug at the north-east and north-west extremities of the building and in the area to the north of the north wing. The work of supervision was carried out by Miss F. Pierce, M.A., Mr. B. Morley, Mr. A. B. Norton, B.A., and Mr. J. P. Wild, B.A. Photography was organized by Mr. D. B. Baker and Mrs. F. A. Cunliffe took charge of the pottery and finds.

scholarly journals On tho proportions of the prevailing winds, the mean temperature, and depth of rain in the climate of London, computed through a cycle of Eighteen Years, or periods of the Moon’s declination

1843 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 300-300
Keyword(s):  
The Moon ◽  
Fair Weather ◽  
North West ◽  
West Wind ◽  
North East ◽  
East Wind ◽  
The North ◽  
The Common ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Solar Influence

In this paper the author investigates the periodical variations of the winds, rain and temperature, corresponding to the conditions of the moon’s declination, in a manner similar to that he has already followed in the case of the barometrical variations, on a period of years extending from 1815 to 1832 inclusive. In each case he gives tables of the average quantities for each week, at the middle of which the moon is in the equator, or else has either attained its maximum north or south declination. He thus finds that a north-east wind is most promoted by the constant solar influence which causes it, when the moon is about the equator, going from north to south; that a south-east wind, in like manner, prevails most when the moon is proceeding to acquire a southern declination ; that winds from the south and west blow more when the moon is in her mean degrees of declination, going either way, than with a full north or south declination ; and that a north-west wind, the common summer and fair weather wind of the climate, affects, in like manner, the mean declination, in either direction, in preference to the north or south, and most when the moon is coming north. He finds the average annual depth of rain, falling in the neighbourhood of London, is 25’17 inches.

CLINICALAND MYCOLOGICAL PROFILE OF ONYCHOMYCOSIS IN A HILLY STATE OF NORTH - EAST INDIA .

2021 ◽  
pp. 41-43
Author(s):  
Subrata kumar Das ◽  
Saptadipa Das
Keyword(s):  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Common Species ◽  
Term Treatment ◽  
Predisposing Factor ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Diagnostic Strategies ◽  
North East India ◽  
North East ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
Long Term Treatment

Background: Onychomycosis is a chronic fungal infection of nger nails and toe nails. It is a non life threatening condition and requires long-term treatment. Mostly patients seek medical care for cosmetic purpose unless it gets secondarily infected and produce pain. Aims: The aim of this study was to determine the prevalence of various causative agents of onychomycosis and to study the clinical and mycological patterns of onychomycosis . Material and Methods: This was a cross sectional observational study which was carried over a period of one year , from December 2019 to November 2020 . A total of 47 patients were included in the study , who visited Dermatology OPD of SMIMS , Sikkim, India. After clinical evaluation , nail samples were subjected for KOH mount and culture. Results:This study included 47 patients of clinically diagnosed onychomycosis , 30 males and 17 males . In the present study maximum number of patients belonged to the age group 30-40 years with 28 patients . Most of the study subjects , 22 were agricultural worker . We found that trauma to the nails was the commonest predisposing factor 17. Out of 47 patients 33 patients were KOH positive and 21 patients were culture positive. Most common type of onychomycosis was Distal lateral subungual onychomycosis with 2 cases . Most common species identied in our study was T.rubram with 5 patients , followed by T. mentagrophytes with 3 patients. Conclusion: Along dermatophytes , NDM and yeasts were also common aetiological agents of onychomycosis. Since onychomycosis can cause physical , psychological and occupational problems, the clinico-epidemiological data can be helpful in development of preventive and diagnostic strategies.

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