scholarly journals Estimates of regional infectivity of COVID-19 in the United Kingdom following imposition of social distancing measures

Author(s):  
Robert Challen ◽  
Krasimira Tsaneva-Atanasova ◽  
Martin Pitt ◽  
Tom Edwards ◽  
Luke Gompels ◽  
...  

AbstractWe describe regional variation in the reproduction number of SARS-CoV-2 infections observed using publicly reported data in the UK, with a view to understanding both if there are clear hot spots in viral spread in the country, or other spatial patterns. Based on case data up to the 9th April, we estimate that the viral replication number remains above 1 overall in the UK but that its trend is to decrease. This suggests the peak of the first wave of COVID-19 patients is imminent. We find that there is significant regional variation in the UK and that this is changing over time. Within England currently the reproductive ratio is lowest in the Midlands (1.11 95% CI 1.07; 1.14), and highest in the North East of England (1.38 95% CI 1.33-1.42). There are long and variable time delays between infection and detection of cases, and thus it remains unclear whether the reduction in the reproductive number is a result of social distancing measures. If we are to prevent further outbreaks, it is critical that we both reduce the time taken for detection and improve our ability to predict the regional spread of outbreaks.

Nutrients ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
pp. 198 ◽  
Author(s):  
Susanna D.H. Mills ◽  
Julia A. Wolfson ◽  
Wendy L. Wrieden ◽  
Heather Brown ◽  
Martin White ◽  
...  

Cooking at home is likely to be associated with benefits to diet and health. However, the nuanced perceptions and practices linked to different types of cooking are not yet fully understood. This research aimed to explore the specific concept of ‘home cooking’, using qualitative research from the UK and US. Data from two previously completed studies exploring cooking at home were combined and a new secondary analysis was undertaken using the Framework Method. Data in the first study were drawn from participants in the North East of the UK who were interviewed. Data in the second study were drawn from participants in Baltimore, US, who took part in focus groups. Data from a total of 71 adults (18 UK and 53 US), with diverse sociodemographic characteristics and experiences of cooking, were analysed. In both countries, participants distinguished ‘home cooking’ as a distinct subtype of cooking at home. ‘Home cooking’ was defined in terms of preparing a meal from scratch, cooking with love and care, and nostalgia. Cooking at home had a range of dimensions, and perceptions of ‘home cooking’ tended to focus on social and emotional associations. In future, public health initiatives might, therefore, highlight the potential social and emotional benefits of ‘home cooking’, rather than emphasising implications for physical health.


2020 ◽  
Vol 79 (Suppl 1) ◽  
pp. 928.2-929
Author(s):  
S. Juman ◽  
T. David ◽  
L. Gray ◽  
R. Hamad ◽  
S. Horton ◽  
...  

Background:Hydroxychloroquine (HCQ) is widely used in the management of rheumatoid arthritis and connective tissue disease. The prevalence of retinopathy in patients taking long-term HCQ is approximately 7.5%, increasing to 20-50% after 20 years of therapy. Hydroxychloroquine prescribed at ≤5 mg/kg poses a toxicity risk of <1% up to five years and <2% up to ten years, but increases sharply to almost 20% after 20 years. Risk factors for retinopathy include doses >5mg/kg/day, concomitant tamoxifen or chloroquine use and renal impairment. The UK Royal College of Ophthalmologists (RCOphth) 2018 guidelines for HCQ screening recommend optimal treatment dosage and timing for both baseline and follow-up ophthalmology review for patients on HCQ, with the aim of preventing iatrogenic visual loss. This is similar to recommendations made by the American Academy of Ophthalmology (2016).Objectives:To determine adherence to the RCOphth guidelines for HCQ screening within the Rheumatology departments in the North-West of the UK.Methods:Data for patients established on HCQ and those initiated on HCQ therapy were collected over a 7 week period from 9 Rheumatology departments.Results:473 patients were included of which 56 (12%) were new starters and 417 (88%) were already established on HCQ. 79% of the patients were female, with median ages of 60.5 and 57 years for new and established patients respectively. The median (IQR) weight for new starters was 71 (27.9) kg and for established patients, 74 (24.7) kg.20% of new starters exceeded 5mg/kg daily HCQ dose. 16% were identified as high risk (9% had previously taken chloroquine, 5% had an eGFR <60ml/min/m2and 2% had retinal co-pathology). Of the high-risk group, 44% were taking <5mg/kg. In total, 36% of new starters were referred for a formal baseline Ophthalmology review.In the established patients, 74% were taking ≤5mg/kg/day HCQ dose and 16% were categorized as high risk (10% had an eGFR less than 60ml/min/m2, 3% had previous chloroquine or tamoxifen use and 2% had retinal co-pathology). In the high-risk group, 75% were not referred for spectral domain optical coherence tomography (SD-OCT). 41% of patients established on HCQ for <5 years, and 33% of patients on HCQ for >5 years were not referred for SD-OCT. Reasons for not referring included; awaiting 5 year review, previous screening already performed and optician review advised.Since the introduction of the RCOphth guidelines, 29% patients already established on HCQ had an alteration in the dosage of HCQ in accordance with the guidelines. In the high-risk group, 16% were not on the recommended HCQ dose.Conclusion:This audit demonstrates inconsistencies in adherence to the RCOphth guidelines for HCQ prescribing and ophthalmology screening within Rheumatology departments in the North-West of the UK for both new starters and established patients. Plans to improve this include wider dissemination of the guidelines to Rheumatology departments and strict service level agreements with ophthalmology teams to help optimize HCQ prescribing and screening for retinopathy.Acknowledgments:Drs. S Jones, E MacPhie, A Madan, L Coates & Prof L Teh. Co-1st author, T David.Disclosure of Interests:None declared


2009 ◽  
Vol 6 (2) ◽  
pp. 36-38 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zahid Latif

Ireland is the third largest island in Europe and the twentieth largest island in the world, with an area of 86 576 km2; it has a total population of slightly under 6 million. It lies to the north-west of continental Europe and to the west of Great Britain. The Republic of Ireland covers five-sixths of the island; Northern Ireland, which is part of the United Kingdom, is in the north-east. Twenty-six of the 32 counties are in the Republic of Ireland, which has a population of 4.2 million, and its capital is Dublin. The other six counties are in Northern Ireland, which has a population of 1.75 million, and its capital is Belfast. In 1973 both parts of Ireland joined the European Economic Community. This article looks at psychiatry in the Republic of Ireland.


Finisterra ◽  
2012 ◽  
Vol 31 (62) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Pike ◽  
Mário Vale

The industrial policy in the UK and in Portugal, as in most EU countries, seeks to attract new investment capacity, to create jobs and to promote the impact of the so-called "demonstration efect" of "greenfield" development strategies pursued in the new plants of inward investors on existing or "brownfield" plants. This industrial policy focus is particularly evident in the automobile industry.This paper compares the industrial policy oriented towards the automobile industry in the UK and in Portugal. Two recent "greenfield" investments are analised: Nissan in the North-East region (UK) and Ford/VW in the Setúbal Peninsula (Portugal), as well as three "brownfield" plants: Ford Halewood and GM Vauxhall Ellesmere Port in the North-West region (UK) and Renault in Setúbal (Portugal). The first part starts with a discussion of industrial policy in the automobile sector, the role of "greenfield" development strategies and the "demonstration effect" on "brownfield" plants. Then, the limits of new inward investment are pointed out, basically their problems and restrictions. Afterwards, the structural barriers to the "demonstration effect" within "brownfield" plants are outlined and some possabilities for alternative "brownfield" development strategies are presented.


2021 ◽  
Vol 20 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Harry E. R. Shepherd ◽  
Florence S. Atherden ◽  
Ho Man Theophilus Chan ◽  
Alexandra Loveridge ◽  
Andrew J. Tatem

Abstract Background Since early March 2020, the COVID-19 epidemic across the United Kingdom has led to a range of social distancing policies, which resulted in changes to mobility across different regions. An understanding of how these policies impacted travel patterns over time and at different spatial scales is important for designing effective strategies, future pandemic planning and in providing broader insights on the population geography of the country. Crowd level data on mobile phone usage can be used as a proxy for population mobility patterns and provide a way of quantifying in near-real time the impact of social distancing measures on changes in mobility. Methods Here we explore patterns of change in densities, domestic and international flows and co-location of Facebook users in the UK from March 2020 to March 2021. Results We find substantial heterogeneities across time and region, with large changes observed compared to pre-pademic patterns. The impacts of periods of lockdown on distances travelled and flow volumes are evident, with each showing variations, but some significant reductions in co-location rates. Clear differences in multiple metrics of mobility are seen in central London compared to the rest of the UK, with each of Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland showing significant deviations from England at times. Moreover, the impacts of rapid changes in rules on international travel to and from the UK are seen in substantial fluctuations in traveller volumes by destination. Conclusions While questions remain about the representativeness of the Facebook data, previous studies have shown strong correspondence with census-based data and alternative mobility measures, suggesting that findings here are valuable for guiding strategies.


1997 ◽  
Vol 42 (1) ◽  
pp. 13-15 ◽  
Author(s):  
D. Nathwani ◽  
J Spiteri

Malaria remains a huge public health problem worldwide, with over 100 million new cases annually, causing one to two million deaths.1 This global problem spills over into the UK, with around 2000 cases of reported annually.2 The proportion of infections due to Plasmodium falciparum (PF) continues to increase and worse still accounts for five to 12 deaths per year. In 1992, Nathwani et al reported the 10 year experience of malaria cases admitted to the Regional Infection Unit, in Aberdeen, Scotland-the “Oil Capital”.3 This study was of interest in that 46% of those British residents who acquired infection had travelled to West or Central Africa on oil related business. The Oil boom of the 1980‘ s appeared to very much centred around Aberdeen and the neighbouring hinterland but did not appear to extend to Dundee which was only 60 miles further down the North-East coast. We, therefore, carried out a retrospective study of patients with malaria admitted to the Regional Infectious Diseases Unit in Dundee over a fifteen year period between 1980 and 1994.


2021 ◽  
Vol 36 (1) ◽  
pp. 155-164
Author(s):  
Richard Barnes

Abstract On 30 September 2020, the United Kingdom and Norway signed the Framework Agreement on Fisheries that will provide the basis for future cooperation in the sustainable management of their fisheries. The Agreement is the first such agreement adopted by the UK following its decision to the leave the European Union. This note provides some background to the Agreement and examines its key features. Whilst the content of the Agreement appears to be rather basic, this is broadly consistent with other framework agreements, and it does provide some insight into the direction and focus of fisheries management in the North Sea, and how cooperation may develop between coastal States and the European Union.


2020 ◽  
pp. bmjspcare-2020-002422
Author(s):  
Donna Wakefield ◽  
Elizabeth Fleming ◽  
Kate Howorth ◽  
Kerry Waterfield ◽  
Emily Kavanagh ◽  
...  

ObjectivesNational guidance recommends equality in access to bereavement services; despite this, awareness and availability appears inconsistent. The aim of this study was to explore availability and accessibility of bereavement services across the North-East of England and to highlight issues potentially applicable across the UK, at a time of unprecedented need due to the impact of COVID-19.MethodsPhase 1: an eight item, web-based survey was produced. A survey link was cascaded to all GP practices (General Practitioners) in the region. Phase 2: an email was sent to all services identified in phase 1, requesting details such as referral criteria and waiting times.ResultsAll 392 GP practices in the region were invited to participate. The response rate was 22% (85/392). Twenty-one per cent (18/85) of respondents reported that they do not refer patients, comments included ‘not aware of any services locally’. A total of 36 services were contacted with 72% responding with further information. Most bereavement specific support was reliant on charity-funded services including hospices, this sometimes required a pre-existing link with the hospice. Waiting times were up to 4 months.ConclusionsAlthough multiple different, usually charity-funded services were identified, awareness and accessibility were variable. This survey was conducted prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, where complex situations surrounding death is likely to impact on the usual grieving process and increase the need for bereavement support. Meanwhile, charities providing this support are under severe financial strain. There is an urgent need to bridge the gap between need and access to bereavement services.


2019 ◽  
Vol 8 (3) ◽  
pp. e000409 ◽  
Author(s):  
Julia Wood ◽  
Bob Brown ◽  
Annette Bartley ◽  
Andreia Margarida Batista Custódio Cavaco ◽  
Anthony Paul Roberts ◽  
...  

In the UK, over 700 000 patients are affected by pressure ulcers each year, and 180 000 of those are newly acquired each year. The occurrence of pressure ulcers costs the National Health Service (NHS) more than 3.8 million every day. In 2004, pressure ulcers were estimated to cost the NHS £1.4–£2.4 billion per year, which was 4% of the total NHS expenditure.The impact on patients can be considerable, due to increased pain, length of hospital stay and decreased quality of life. However, it is acknowledged that a significant number of these are avoidable.In early 2015, it was identified that for the North East and North Cumbria region the incidence of pressure ulcers was higher than the national average. Because of this, a 2-year Pressure Ulcer Collaborative was implemented, involving secondary care, community services, care homes and the ambulance service, with the aim of reducing the percentage of pressure ulcers developed by patients within their care.The Breakthrough Series Collaborative Model from the Institute for Healthcare Improvement provided the framework for this Collaborative.In year 1, pressure ulcers were reduced by 36%, and in year 2 by 33%, demonstrating an estimated cost saving during the lifespan of the Collaborative of £513 000, and a reduction in the number of bed days between 220 and 352.


Open Heart ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
pp. e000795 ◽  
Author(s):  
Linda Hicks ◽  
Julia Newton ◽  
Rahul Nayar ◽  
Kate Mackay

ObjectiveTo determine whether training podiatrists to provide opportunistic screening for atrial fibrillation (AF) during the local diabetes foot check was feasible and whether it detects previously unknown AF.MethodDuring the initiative, 45 podiatrists from across North Durham, Darlington and Durham Dales Easington and Sedgefield Clinical Commissioning Groups were trained to recognise heart irregularities when taking pulse readings of feet of patients with diabetes during their annual foot screening reviews.ResultsOver the course of the 3-month pilot, 5000 patients with diabetes had their feet pulse-tested. The project uncovered that for every 500 patients who had their feet checked, one new case of AF could be identified.ConclusionA report following the Podiatry and Atrial Fibrillation Case Finding scheme revealed that the National Health Service in the United Kingdom North East and North Cumbria area could benefit from potential cost savings in excess of £500 000. In 2013, the National Diabetes Information Service, Yorkshire and Humber Public Health Observatory estimated 231 777 people in the North East, North Cumbria, Hambleton and Richmondshire area with diabetes. Therefore 463 patients could be found with AF, preventing 23 strokes and saving £539 742 or in excess of £0.5 M.


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