scholarly journals The socio-economic determinants of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Viktor Stojkoski ◽  
Zoran Utkovski ◽  
Petar Jolakoski ◽  
Dragan Tevdovski ◽  
Ljupco Kocarev
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Economic Determinants ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Active Debate

AbstractThe magnitude of the coronavirus disease (COVID-19) pandemic has an enormous impact on the social life and the economic activities in almost every country in the world. Besides the biological and epidemiological factors, a multitude of social and economic criteria also govern the extent of the coronavirus disease spread in the population. Consequently, there is an active debate regarding the critical socio-economic determinants that contribute to the resulting pandemic. In this paper, we contribute towards the resolution of the debate by leveraging Bayesian model averaging techniques and country level data to investigate the potential of 35 determinants, describing a diverse set of socio-economic characteristics, in explaining the coronavirus pandemic outcome.

The Postmodern Individual: Structural Determinants of Attitudes

2005 ◽  
Vol 4 (3-4) ◽  
pp. 339-364 ◽  
Author(s):  
Christine Wernet ◽  
Cheryl Elman ◽  
Brian Pendleton
Keyword(s):  
Gender Ideology ◽  
Policy Formation ◽  
Structural Determinants ◽  
Country Level ◽  
National Differences ◽  
Level Data ◽  
The Social ◽  
Higher Educational Attainment ◽  
And Gender

AbstractThis study uses the World Values Survey and country level data to explore how social structure, especially cross-national differences in female education, reproductive freedom, and participation in state policy formation, is related to attitudes of postmaterialism and gender ideology. Thefindings show that pro-woman state structure and policies are associated with higher educational attainment for citizens, higher work attainment and income levels, and greater satisfaction. Moreover, women and men who live in states with pro-woman policies are more postmodern in their attitudes; these individuals more readily support gender equality and prefer a culturally rich, high quality of life over economic gain. Women also have more postmodern attitudes than men. This research identifies the structural components and the social processes associated with the holding of individual attitudes, as suggested by House.

scholarly journals From the index case to global spread: the global mobility based modelling of the COVID-19 pandemic implies higher infection rate and lower detection ratio than current estimates

PeerJ ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 8 ◽  
pp. e9548
Author(s):  
Marian Siwiak ◽  
Pawel Szczesny ◽  
Marlena Siwiak
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Index Case ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Screening Tests ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Infectious Period ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Global Epidemic ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Level Data

Background Since the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic, multiple efforts of modelling of the geo-temporal transmissibility of the virus have been undertaken, but none describes the pandemic spread at the global level. The aim of this research is to provide a high-resolution global model of the pandemic that overcomes the problem of biased country-level data on the number of infected cases. To achieve this we propose a novel SIR-type metapopulation transmission model and a set of analytically derived model parameters. We used them to perform a simulation of the disease spread with help of the Global Epidemic and Mobility (GLEAM) framework embedding actual population densities, commute patterns and long-range travel networks. The simulation starts on 17 November 2019 with the index case (presymptomatic, yet infectious) in Wuhan, China, and results in an accurate prediction of the number of diagnosed cases after 154 days in multiple countries across five continents. In addition, the model outcome shows high compliance with the results of a random screening test conducted on pregnant women in the New York area. Methods We have built a modified SIR metapopulation transmission model and parameterized it analytically either by setting the values of the parameters based on the literature, or by assuming their plausible values. We compared our results with the number of diagnosed cases in twenty selected countries, ones which provide reliable statistics but differ substantially in terms of strength and speed of undertaken Non-Drug Interventions. The obtained 95% confidence intervals for the predictions are in agreement with the empirical data. Results The parameters that successfully model the pandemic are: the basic reproduction number R0, 4.4; a latent non-infectious period of 1.1. days followed by 4.6 days of the presymptomatic infectious period; the probability of developing severe symptoms, 0.01; the probability of being diagnosed when presenting severe symptoms of 0.6; the probability of diagnosis for cases with mild symptoms or asymptomatic, 0.001. Discussion Parameters that successfully reproduce the observed number of cases indicate that both R0 and the prevalence of the virus might be underestimated. This is in concordance with the newest research on undocumented COVID-19 cases. Consequently, the actual mortality rate is putatively lower than estimated. Confirmation of the pandemic characteristic by further refinement of the model and screening tests is crucial for developing an effective strategy for the global epidemiological crisis.

scholarly journals Improving Predictions using Ensemble Bayesian Model Averaging

2012 ◽  
Vol 20 (3) ◽  
pp. 271-291 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacob M. Montgomery ◽  
Florian M. Hollenbach ◽  
Michael D. Ward
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Weighted Average ◽  
The Pacific ◽  
The Social ◽  
Out Of Sample ◽  
Forecast Models ◽  
Future Events ◽  
Component Models

We present ensemble Bayesian model averaging (EBMA) and illustrate its ability to aid scholars in the social sciences to make more accurate forecasts of future events. In essence, EBMA improves prediction by pooling information from multiple forecast models to generate ensemble predictions similar to a weighted average of component forecasts. The weight assigned to each forecast is calibrated via its performance in some validation period. The aim is not to choose some “best” model, but rather to incorporate the insights and knowledge implicit in various forecasting efforts via statistical postprocessing. After presenting the method, we show that EBMA increases the accuracy of out-of-sample forecasts relative to component models in three applied examples: predicting the occurrence of insurgencies around the Pacific Rim, forecasting vote shares in U.S. presidential elections, and predicting the votes of U.S. Supreme Court Justices.

scholarly journals Problematyka aksjologiczna jako uwarunkowanie procesów prawodawstwa gospodarczego oraz jego limitacji. Zagadnienia filozoficzno-prawne

2013 ◽  
pp. 37-72
Author(s):  
Anna Kociołek-Pęksa
Keyword(s):  
Economic System ◽  
Social Life ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Economical Analysis ◽  
Positive Law ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Status ◽  
Effective Instrument ◽  
The Law ◽  
The Concept Of Law

The dissertation substantiates the possibility of applying the idea of law as a tool for defining the limits of legal interference in an economic system. Adopting the concept of law based on the Economical Analysis of Law it advocates the belief that the implementation of the idea of law consisting of three values – advisability, justice and legal safety – is the most optimal and effective instrument in determining the limits of legal regulations with regard to a liberal market economy. One can conclude then, that the idea of law can very well be described as a general cultural axiological system, especially with regard to the economic and legal culture. It is a system of values that determines the processes of internalization and institutionalization of norms and above all legal and moral ones. The law is a factor that determines and organizes the social life and it determines for the same reason the art and limits of economic activities. It cannot therefore be enacted in isolation from economic and axiological questions. As Gustav Radbruch observes, the law, as well positive as the natural law is a cultural phenomenon and can be looked into only in connection with values and always with reference to them. The positive law must embody and implement the idea of law. And although it is indisputable that no ideal legal or economic system can be completely fulfilled, the striving toward those ideals is an obligation for any society. Resigning and giving up the ideal does not simply mean the preservation of the status quo, but it results in regression and in repeating of former dysfunctions and/or other negative solutions.

Halal landscapes of Dagestani entrepreneurs in Makhachkala

Ethnicities ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 20 (4) ◽  
pp. 708-730
Author(s):  
Iwona Kaliszewska
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Analytical Potential ◽  
The Social ◽  
Economic Practices ◽  
Multi Temporal ◽  
Moral Dimensions ◽  
The Republic ◽  
Human Actors ◽  
The Relationship

It has recently become increasingly popular for small entrepreneurs in Dagestan to introduce elements of Islamic economy into their everyday economic practices. In my paper, I take a closer look at everyday life and the ways of conducting business among small entrepreneurs in Makhachkala, the capital of the Republic of Dagestan in the Russian Federation.  In order to scrutinize the relationship between everyday religious observance, space and economic practices within a broader socio-political context, I introduce the term ‘halal landscape’. ‘Halal landscapes’ emerge through the gradual infusion of Islam into the sphere of economic activities, where they form ‘Islam-inspired’ social spaces, in which economic and moral dimensions are interwoven with formal and informal norms and regulations, and where social life – the area of interaction between human and non-human actors – has its unique materiality and temporality.  In my paper, I look into the halal landscapes of Dagestani entrepreneurs in Makhachkala and demonstrate the analytical potential of the term to study the social and cultural nature of Islam-inspired economic practices. Important elements of these halal landscapes include the avoidance of deception and usury, promotion of honesty and observance in the workplace, payment of zakat, as well as thorough knowledge about these issues.  My analysis is based on the results of multi-temporal fieldwork conducted in Makhachkala in 2017–2019 as well as on earlier field observations gathered during regular visits in 2004–2016.

scholarly journals Socializēšanās prakses viduslaiku pilsētā: amatu korporāciju piemērs

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rūta Bruževica ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Social Life ◽  
Human Life ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Daily Lives ◽  
The Social ◽  
The Family ◽  
Long Time ◽  
The One ◽  
The City

One of the most important aspects of medieval human life was being in a community. On the one hand, medieval city itself was such a community, whereas on the other hand, there still remained social, economic and occupational differences between its inhabitants, which in daily life dissociated people. In addition to the community in the city, the church and the family, another type of community developed in medieval cities – professional or artisan associations, fraternities or guilds. For a very long time, the studies dedicated to these organizations focused mainly on their economic, legal and organizational aspects, and hence guilds are mainly associated with their economic activities. However, the religious and social life they yielded was no less important and provided people’s daily lives with activities that complemented their spiritual and social life. The aim of the study is to review and analyse the social practices found in the source material, whereby such aspects of socialization as the formation of beneficial social contacts, maintenance of relationships, as well as mutual assistance were practiced in medieval artisan associations. Examples and their similarities in various artisan associations in Europe, including Riga, which are reported in medieval written sources, especially the statutes of these associations, will be discussed. The obtained information collected in the study confirms that associations extended beyond economic goals, as their practices promoted social contacts between members, strengthened friendships, fostered respect and responsibility for each other.

scholarly journals A conceptual introduction to Bayesian model averaging

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Max Hinne ◽  
Quentin Frederik Gronau ◽  
Don van den Bergh ◽  
Eric-Jan Wagenmakers
Keyword(s):  
Model Selection ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Selection Process ◽  
Process Analysis ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Parameter Estimates ◽  
The Social ◽  
Data Generating Process

Many statistical scenarios initially involve several candidate models that describe the data-generating process. Analysis often proceeds by first selecting the best model according to some criterion, and then learning about the parameters of this selected model. Crucially however, in this approach the parameter estimates are conditioned on the selected model, and any uncertainty about the model selection process is ignored. An alternative is to learn the parameters for allcandidate models, and then combine the estimates according to the posterior probabilities of the associated models. The result is known as Bayesian model averaging (BMA). BMA has several important advantages over all-or-none selection methods, but has been used only sparingly in the social sciences. In this conceptual introduction we explain the principles of BMA, describe its advantages over all-or-none model selection, and showcase its utility for three examples: ANCOVA, meta-analysis, and network analysis.

scholarly journals Quantifying Critical Success Factors (CSFs) in Management of Investment-Construction Projects: Insights from Bayesian Model Averaging

Buildings ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
pp. 360
Author(s):  
Janusz Sobieraj ◽  
Dominik Metelski
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Critical Success Factors ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Investment Projects ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Inclusion Probabilities ◽  
Active Debate

The problem with evaluating investment projects is that there are many factors that determine the degree of their successful conclusion. Consequently, there has been an active debate for years as to which critical success factors (CSFs) contribute most to the performance of construction projects. This is because the practice of empirical research is based on two steps: first, researchers choose a particular model from the space of all possible models, and second, they act as if the chosen model is the only one that fits the data and describes the phenomenon under study. Hence, there are many CSF lists that can be found in the literature, owing to the uncertainty at the model selection stage, which is usually ignored. Alternatively, model averaging accounts for this model uncertainty. In this study, the Bayesian model averaging and data from a survey of Polish construction managers were used to investigate the potential of 28 factors describing a diverse set of characteristics in explaining the performance of construction projects in Poland. Determinants of successful completion of investment projects are categorized by their level of evidential strength, which is derived from posterior inclusion probabilities (PIPs), i.e., providing strong, medium and weak evidence.

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