Pre-test probability for SARS-Cov-2-related Infection Score: the PARIS score
AbstractBackgroundDiagnostic tests for SARS-CoV-2 infection (mostly RT-PCR and Computed Tomography) are not widely available in numerous countries, expensive and with imperfect performanceMethodsThis multicenter retrospective study aimed to determine a pre-test probability score for SARS-CoV-2 infection based on clinical and biological variables. Patients were recruited from emergency and infectious disease departments and were divided into a training and a validation cohort. Demographic characteristics, clinical symptoms, and results of blood tests (complete white blood cell count, serum electrolytes and CRP) were collected. The pre-test probability score was derived from univariate analyses between patients and controls, followed by multivariate binary logistic analysis to determine the independent variables associated with SARS-CoV-2 infection. Points were assigned to each variable to create the PARIS score. ROC curve analysis determined the area under the curve (AUC).FindingsOne hundred subjects with clinical suspicion of SARS-CoV-2 infection were included in the training cohort, and 300 other consecutive individuals were included in the validation cohort. Low lymphocyte (<1·3 G/L), eosinophil (<0·06G/L), basophil (<0·04G/L) and neutrophil counts (<5G/L) were associated with a high probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection. No clinical variable was statistically significant. The score had a good performance in the validation cohort (AUC=0.889 (CI: [0.846–0.932]; STD=0.022) with a sensitivity and Positive Predictive Value of high-probability score of 80·3% and 92·3% respectively. Furthermore, a low-probability score excluded SARS-CoV-2 infection with a Negative Predictive Value of 99.5%.InterpretationThe PARIS score based on complete white blood cell count has a good performance to categorize the pre-test probability of SARS-CoV-2 infection. It could help clinicians avoid diagnostic tests in patients with a low-probability score and conversely keep on testing individuals with high-probability score but negative RT-PCR or CT. It could prove helpful in countries with a low-availability of PCR and/or CT during the current period of pandemic.FundingNonePutting research into contextEvidence before this studyIn numerous countries, large population testing is impossible due to the limited availability and costs of RT-PCR kits and CT-scan. Furthermore, false-negativity of PCR or CT as well as COVID-19 pneumonia mimickers on CT may lead to inaccurate diagnoses. Pre-test probability combining clinical and biological features has proven to be a particularly useful tool, already used in clinical practice for management of patients with a suspicion of pulmonary embolism.Added value of this studyThis retrospective study including 400 patients with clinical suspicion of SARS-CoV-2 infection was composed of a training and a validation cohort. The pre-test probability score (PARIS score) determines 3 levels of probability of SARS-CoV2 infection based on white blood cell count (lymphocyte, eosinophil, basophil and neutrophil cell count).Implications of the available evidenceThis pre-test probability may help to adapt SARS-CoV-2 infection diagnostic tests. The high negative predictive value (99·5%) of the low probability category may help avoid further tests, especially during a pandemic with overwhelmed resources. A high probability score combined with typical CT features can be considered sufficient for diagnosis confirmation.