scholarly journals Global prediction of unreported SARS-CoV2 infection from observed COVID-19 cases

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carson C. Chow ◽  
Joshua C. Chang ◽  
Richard C. Gerkin ◽  
Shashaank Vattikuti
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Latent Variable ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
State Level ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
True Rate ◽  
Current State ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Bayesian Averaging ◽  
True Values

SummaryEstimation of infectiousness and fatality of the SARS-CoV-2 virus in the COVID-19 global pandemic is complicated by ascertainment bias resulting from incomplete and non-representative samples of infected individuals. We developed a strategy for overcoming this bias to obtain more plausible estimates of the true values of key epidemiological variables. We fit mechanistic Bayesian latent-variable SIR models to confirmed COVID-19 cases, deaths, and recoveries, for all regions (countries and US states) independently. Bayesian averaging over models, we find that the raw infection incidence rate underestimates the true rate by a factor, the case ascertainment ratio CARt that depends upon region and time. At the regional onset of COVID-19, the predicted global median was 13 infections unreported for each case confirmed (CARt = 0.07 C.I. (0.02, 0.4)). As the infection spread, the median CARt rose to 9 unreported cases for every one diagnosed as of April 15, 2020 (CARt = 0.1 C.I. (0.02, 0.5)). We also estimate that the median global initial reproduction number R0 is 3.3 (C.I (1.5, 8.3)) and the total infection fatality rate near the onset is 0.17% (C.I. (0.05%, 0.9%)). However the time-dependent reproduction number Rt and infection fatality rate as of April 15 were 1.2 (C.I. (0.6, 2.5)) and 0.8% (C.I. (0.2%,4%)), respectively. We find that there is great variability between country- and state-level values. Our estimates are consistent with recent serological estimates of cumulative infections for the state of New York, but inconsistent with claims that very large fractions of the population have already been infected in most other regions. For most regions, our estimates imply a great deal of uncertainty about the current state and trajectory of the epidemic.

The Role of Archpriest Eugene Popov in Enhancing of the Anglican-Orthodox Dialog

2020 ◽  
pp. 71-84
Author(s):  
Ярослав Очканов
Keyword(s):  
State Level ◽  
Structural Features ◽  
Russian Orthodox ◽  
Church Community ◽  
Anglican Church ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Church

Статья посвящена исследованию малоизученной стороны деятельности видного русского священнослужителя протоиерея Евгения Попова, бывшего с 1842 по 1875 гг. настоятелем русской посольской церкви в Лондоне. Его служение на Английской земле совпало с углублением диалога между Русской Православной и Англиканской церквами, явившегося следствием религиозных преобразований в Англии в 1830 - 1840-е гг. Отец Евгений в рассматриваемый период фактически стал связующим звеном между русским церковноначалием и англиканами - инициаторами единения двух Церквей. Он проделал огромную работу по популяризации православия в Англии и много сделал для ознакомления русской церковной общественности с вероучением и структурными особенностями англиканства. Материалом для исследования послужили, прежде всего, письма протоиерея Евгения Попова обер-прокурорам Святейшего Синода Н. А. Протасову и А. П. Толстому. Эти документы являются своеобразными отчётами о современном состоянии Англиканской Церкви, о религиозных течениях в ней и усилиях, предпринимаемых определёнными церковными кругами в Англии по сближению с православием. Результаты его деятельности имели важное значение в последующие десятилетия, когда англикано-православный диалог вышел на церковно-государственный уровень. The article is devoted to the insufficiently studied aspects of Russian prominent cleric Archpriest Eugene Popov, rector of Russian Embassy Church in London from 1842 to 1875. His Ministry on the English soil coincided with the deepening of the dialogue between the Russian Orthodox and Anglican Churches, which was the result of religious transformations in England in the 1830s and 1840s. Father Eugene in the period under consideration actually became a connecting link between the Russian Church authorities and the anglicans-initiators of the union of the two Churches. He had done a great job by popularizing Orthodoxy in England and by familiarizing the Russian Church community with the doctrine and structural features of Anglicanism. The study, first of all, is based the letters of Archpriest Yevgeny Popov to the chief prosecutors of the Holy Synod N. A. Protasov and A. P. Tolstoy, which were original reports on the current state of the Anglican Church, it’s religious trends, and the efforts made by certain Church circles in England to get closer to Orthodoxy. The fruits of his activities were important in the following decades, when the Anglican-Orthodox dialogue reached the Church-state level.

COVID-19: Time-Dependent Effective Reproduction Number and Sub-notification Effect Estimation Modeling (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Atem De Carvalho ◽  
Rogerio Atem De Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Effect Estimation ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and health authorities have sought to identify the different parameters that govern their infection and death cycles, in order to be able to make better decisions. In particular, a series of reproduction number estimation models have been presented, with different practical results. OBJECTIVE This article aims to present an effective and efficient model for estimating the Reproduction Number and to discuss the impacts of sub-notification on these calculations. METHODS The concept of Moving Average Method with Initial value (MAMI) is used, as well as a model for Rt, the Reproduction Number, is derived from experimental data. The models are applied to real data and their performance is presented. RESULTS Analyses on Rt and sub-notification effects for Germany, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the State of New York are presented to show the performance of the methods here introduced. CONCLUSIONS We show that, with relatively simple mathematical tools, it is possible to obtain reliable values for time-dependent, incubation period-independent Reproduction Numbers (Rt). We also demonstrate that the impact of sub-notification is relatively low, after the initial phase of the epidemic cycle has passed.

Navigating the Complex Maze of Ethics CPE

2010 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
pp. 88-104 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard O. Rockness ◽  
Joanne W. Rockness
Keyword(s):  
Detailed Analysis ◽  
Ethics Education ◽  
State Level ◽  
Course Content ◽  
Complex Maze ◽  
Education Literature ◽  
Current State ◽  
Multiple State ◽  
Ethics Courses ◽  
Overall Effectiveness

ABSTRACT: This paper evaluates the current state of ethics CPE requirements for the CPA profession in the context of the ethics literature in philosophy, business, and accounting and documents the development of state-level ethics requirements for CPAs. It presents a detailed analysis of ethics CPE requirements by state including hours required, frequency required, acceptance of ethics CPE across state lines, and course content. The paper then proposes changes in the content of CPE-required ethics courses consistent with the ethics education literature and to reduce the complexity of meeting multiple state requirements. The recommendations would improve the overall effectiveness of ethics CPE for CPAs.

Conclusion

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrea Harris
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Twentieth Century ◽  
New York City ◽  
Driving Force ◽  
George Balanchine ◽  
Current State ◽  
The Arts ◽  
History Of ◽  
Lincoln Center

The Conclusion briefly examines the current state of the New York City Ballet under the auspices of industrial billionaire David H. Koch at Lincoln Center. In so doing, it to introduces a series of questions, warranting still more exploration, about the rapid and profound evolution of the structure, funding, and role of the arts in America through the course of the twentieth century. It revisits the historiographical problem that drives Making Ballet American: the narrative that George Balanchine was the sole creative genius who finally created an “American” ballet. In contrast to that hagiography, the Conclusion reiterates the book’s major contribution: illuminating the historical construction of our received idea of American neoclassical ballet within a specific set of social, political, and cultural circumstances. The Conclusion stresses that the history of American neoclassicism must be seen as a complex narrative involving several authors and discourses and crossing national and disciplinary borders: a history in which Balanchine was not the driving force, but rather the outcome.

Save Our Senior Noncitizens: Extending Old Age Assistance to Immigrants in the United States, 1935–71

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-27
Author(s):  
Cybelle Fox
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Old Age ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Institutional Arrangements ◽  
Social Rights ◽  
Secure Access ◽  
The Supreme Court ◽  
Old Age Assistance ◽  
Social Security Act

Abstract When do states grant social rights to noncitizens? I explore this question by examining the extension of Old Age Assistance (OAA) to noncitizens after the passage of the 1935 Social Security Act. While the act contained no alienage-based restrictions, states were permitted to bar noncitizens from means-tested programs. In 1939, 31 states had alienage restrictions for OAA. By 1971, when the Supreme Court declared state-level alienage restrictions unconstitutional, only eight states still did. States with more Mexicans and Asians were slower to repeal restriction, however. Using in-depth case studies of New York, California, and Texas, I demonstrate the importance of federal and state institutional arrangements and immigrant political power for the extension of social rights to noncitizens. I also show that to secure access to OAA, immigrant advocates adapted their strategies to match the institutional and political context.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in comparison with other emerging viral diseases: risk of geographic spread via travel

2021 ◽  
Vol 7 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
A. Wilder-Smith
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Air Travel ◽  
Viral Diseases ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
The Past ◽  
Geographic Spread ◽  
Emerging Viral Diseases

Abstract Purpose of review The COVID-19 pandemic poses a major global health threat. The rapid spread was facilitated by air travel although rigorous travel bans and lockdowns were able to slow down the spread. How does COVID-19 compare with other emerging viral diseases of the past two decades? Recent findings Viral outbreaks differ in many ways, such as the individuals most at risk e.g. pregnant women for Zika and the elderly for COVID-19, their vectors of transmission, their fatality rate, and their transmissibility often measured as basic reproduction number. The risk of geographic spread via air travel differs significantly between emerging infectious diseases. Summary COVID-19 is not associated with the highest case fatality rate compared with other emerging viral diseases such as SARS and Ebola, but the combination of a high reproduction number, superspreading events and a globally immunologically naïve population has led to the highest global number of deaths in the past 20 decade compared to any other pandemic.

scholarly journals Rising Geographic Disparities in US Mortality

2021 ◽  
Vol 35 (4) ◽  
pp. 123-146
Author(s):  
Benjamin K. Couillard ◽  
Christopher L. Foote ◽  
Kavish Gandhi ◽  
Ellen Meara ◽  
Jonathan Skinner
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
State Level ◽  
High Income ◽  
First Century ◽  
Quarter Century ◽  
Health Gains ◽  
High Fraction ◽  
Deaths Of Despair ◽  
Public Health Strategies ◽  
College Educated

The twenty-first century has been a period of rising inequality in both income and health. In this paper, we find that geographic inequality in mortality for midlife Americans increased by about 70 percent between 1992 and 2016. This was not simply because states like New York or California benefited from having a high fraction of college-educated residents who enjoyed the largest health gains during the last several decades. Nor was higher dispersion in mortality caused entirely by the increasing importance of “deaths of despair,” or by rising spatial income inequality during the same period. Instead, over time, state-level mortality has become increasingly correlated with state-level income; in 1992, income explained only 3 percent of mortality inequality, but by 2016, state-level income explained 58 percent. These mortality patterns are consistent with the view that high-income states in 1992 were better able to enact public health strategies and adopt behaviors that, over the next quarter-century, resulted in pronounced relative declines in mortality. The substantial longevity gains in high-income states led to greater cross-state inequality in mortality.

scholarly journals Comprehensive Review of Cardiovascular Involvement in COVID-19

2021 ◽  
pp. e1-e19
Author(s):  
Ruff Joseph Macale Cajanding
Keyword(s):  
Cardiac Involvement ◽  
Health Care Systems ◽  
The Body ◽  
Cardiac Pathology ◽  
Current State ◽  
Global Pandemic ◽  
Cardiovascular Involvement ◽  
Disease Causation ◽  
Care Systems ◽  
Clinically Significant

COVID-19 has emerged as one of the most devastating and clinically significant infectious diseases of the last decade. It has reached global pandemic status at an unprecedented pace and has placed significant demands on health care systems worldwide. Although COVID-19 primarily affects the lungs, epidemiologic reports have shown that the disease affects other vital organs of the body, including the heart, vasculature, kidneys, brain, and the hematopoietic system. Of importance is the emerging awareness of the effects of COVID-19 on the cardiovascular system. The current state of knowledge regarding cardiac involvement in COVID-19 is presented in this article, with particular focus on the cardiovascular manifestations and complications of COVID-19 infection. The mechanistic insights of disease causation and the relevant pathophysiology involved in COVID-19 as they affect the heart are explored and described. Relevant practice essentials and clinical management implications for patients with COVID-19 with a cardiac pathology are presented in light of recent evidence.

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