scholarly journals A Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) model of COVID-19 epidemic trend in Malaysia under Movement Control Order (MCO) using a data fitting approach

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Wan Nor Arifin ◽  
Weng Howe Chan ◽  
Safiya Amaran ◽  
Kamarul Imran Musa
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Data Fitting ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Susceptible Population ◽  
The Public ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Parameter Values

AbstractBackgroundIn this work, we presented a Susceptible-Infected-Removed (SIR) epidemiological model of COVID-19 epidemic in Malaysia post- and pre-Movement Control Order (MCO). The proposed SIR model was fitted to confirmed COVID-19 cases from the official press statements to closely reflect the observed epidemic trend in Malaysia. The proposed model is aimed to provide an accurate predictive information for decision makers in assessing the public health and social measures related to COVID-19 epidemic.MethodsThe SIR model was fitted to the data by minimizing a weighted loss function; the sum of the residual sum of squares (RSS) of infected, removed and total cases. Optimized beta (β),), gamma (γ) parameter values) parameter values and the starting value of susceptible individuals (N) were obtained.ResultsThe SIR model post-MCO indicates the peak of infection on 10 April 2020, less than 100 active cases by 8 July 2020, less than 10 active cases by 29 August 2020, and close to zero daily new case by 22 July 2020, with a total of 6562 infected cases. In the absence of MCO, the model predicts the peak of infection on 1 May 2020, less than 100 active cases by 14 February 2021, less than 10 active cases by 26 April 2021 and close to zero daily new case by 6 October 2020, with a total of 1.6 million infected cases. Conclusion: The results suggest that the present MCO has significantly reduced the number of susceptible population and the total number of infected cases. The method to fit the SIR model used in this study was found to be accurate in reflecting the observed data. The method can be used to predict the epidemic trend of COVID-19 in other countries.

scholarly journals Working towards evidence-informed policy: Public health report Stockholm

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (Supplement_5) ◽  
Author(s):  
V Bartelink ◽  
D Yacaman Mendez ◽  
A Lager
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Resource Allocation ◽  
Scientific Literature ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
High Quality ◽  
Public Health Report ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Report ◽  
High Quality Evidence ◽  
Quality Evidence

Abstract Issue Public health problems and interventions are often addressed in sub-optimal ways by not prioritizing them based on the best available evidence. Description of the Problem The public health report 2019 for the Stockholm region aims to inform decision makers, politicians, and public health workers about the risk factors and diseases that account for the biggest part of the burden of disease with a clear focus on high quality evidence and communication of main messages. How did the public health report 2019 affect public health policy in the Stockholm region? Results The public health report 2019 influenced agenda setting, resource allocation and priority setting in the Stockholm region. Lessons We identified the following facilitating factors in the process, of which most also are supported in scientific literature, in chronological order: 1) understanding the policymaking context to be aware of windows of opportunity, 2) establishing relationships with relevant policymakers, engage with them routinely in the decision-making process, and being accessible for questions, 3) doing high-quality research by considering the latest scientific literature, multiple data sources and involving academic experts in the field, 4) communicating clear and relevant messages for generalists by translating research into easy-understandable texts and attractive figures, and 5) active dissemination of the report through multiple channels. In addition, the following barriers were identified: 1) the timeframe of the policymaking process was not in line with the research process, and 2) involving politicians in an early stage can potentially harm the objectivity of research in media messages. Key messages By focussing on major problems, high quality evidence and clear messages a public health report can contribute to more evidence-informed policy making. Engaging decision makers in the process of public health reporting is critical for the impact on agenda setting, resource allocation, and priority setting.

scholarly journals Perception of the Movement Control Order during the COVID-19 Pandemic: A Qualitative Study in Malaysia

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (16) ◽  
pp. 8778
Author(s):  
Yea Lu Tay ◽  
Zalilah Abdullah ◽  
Kalvina Chelladorai ◽  
Lee Lan Low ◽  
Seng Fah Tong
Keyword(s):  
Emotional Response ◽  
Public Perception ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
Risk Groups ◽  
Communication Strategy ◽  
Physical Interaction ◽  
Psychological States ◽  
The Public ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Depth Interviews

Malaysia implemented its first Movement Control Order (MCO) during the early phase of the COVID-19 pandemic to slow the transmission of the virus. This study aimed to explore the public perception of the MCO implementation and people’s experiences during this period. The study employed qualitative explorative in-depth interviews conducted with 23 Malaysian adults from various demographic backgrounds. Thematic analysis was performed using NVivo 12. Three main themes were identified: a period of information surge, heterogeneous emotional response, and attempts to adapt. During the MCO, the participants obtained information from multiple platforms. They suggested the need for clear and repeated instructions to avoid confusion and misinformation. They also acknowledged the importance of the MCO in breaking the chain of transmission and safeguarding high-risk groups; however, they also expressed that stricter enforcement from the authorities was warranted. The changes in the participants’ work–life routines, lack of physical interaction, and uncertainty about their health and the economy due to the MCO negatively impacted their psychological states. Despite these challenges, the participants attempted to adapt to life under the MCO in different ways. The findings imply that during a crisis, the public tends to seek clear and reliable information, experience emotional turmoil, and adapt to changes. The MCO implementation can be improved through an effective communication strategy and efforts to battle misinformation.

Developing High Quality Public Health Services Across the Union That Are Equally Accessible to All

2018 ◽  
pp. 1924-1947
Author(s):  
Androutsou Lorena ◽  
Androutsou Foulvia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Member State ◽  
Health Systems ◽  
Quality Standards ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
High Quality ◽  
The Public ◽  
European Health

Health systems are facing greater demands and challenges. Access to all with high-quality standards has been a key challenge for the European health systems, however, they are engaged to take care of the rights of those in need. This article aims to identify public health areas and values. It offers many opportunities to help policy and decision makers to write “policy briefs” and to clearly outline the rationale for action. It will pursuit to enhance local capacities and skills to plan, implement, evaluate and sustain system improvements. There is a need both at Member State and European levels to support the public health services to shape the future of health and healthcare.

scholarly journals Dynamics of Actors in Innovation in Public Health Services: Brazilian Experience

2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Cristine Hermann Nodari ◽  
Luciana Gondim de Almeida Guimarães ◽  
Alipio Ramos Veiga Neto ◽  
Pelayo Munhoz Olea ◽  
Isabel Cristina Rosa Barros Rasia
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Services ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Public Health Services ◽  
Political Decision ◽  
The Public ◽  
Different Types ◽  
South Of Brazil

The analysis of development of innovation in services starts from the interaction of different actors. This research aimed to identify the dynamics of the mobilization of preferences and capabilities of different actors (political decision-makers, users and servers) in the development of the final characteristics of the service and, consequently, of the innovation in the public health context of a municipality located in the south of Brazil. Was carried out analysis of data from descriptive and inferential statistics of case study. The main results highlight the preponderance of the operation of server capacity for mobilization of different types of innovation, and consequently the production of the final characteristics of the health service. In this context, service innovation can finally be taken as the endogenous decision-making process of the organizations that make up the sector and that derive from the very nature of health services. Finally, we described the limitations and future research opportunities.

PD61 HTA Regional Network In The Central Region Of Brazil: Survey In 2016

2018 ◽  
Vol 34 (S1) ◽  
pp. 152-152
Author(s):  
Flavia Tavares Silva Elias ◽  
Juliana da Motta Girardi ◽  
Rafael Moraes ◽  
Fabio Amorim ◽  
Ana Carolina Pereira ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health System ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Federal District ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
University Hospital ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Questionnaire Response ◽  
Medical Specialties ◽  
The Public

Introduction:The Federal District in Brazil has about 2.9 million inhabitants and the public health system is focused on medical specialties, with one university hospital and twenty regional hospitals. This ecosystem is favorable for fostering health technology assessment (HTA) to improve the efficiency and effectiveness of health care. The objective was to identify institutions that could form a HTA network to support decision-oriented evidence in the public health system.Methods:Stakeholders from the hospitals and training/research institutions in the Federal District were surveyed. An online questionnaire (Google Docs) was developed to identify the potential and capacity of institutions to analyze or produce clinical and economic evidence. Two HTA seminars were held to spread knowledge about HTA and to encourage stakeholders to complete the survey.Results:The questionnaire response rate was thirty-five percent (25/70). Fifteen institutions were cited by the respondents as having the potential to build a HTA network. Twelve of the institutions produced rapid reviews and clinical guidelines, but only three of these had an organized priority setting process or produced assessments at the request of the hospital manager. The challenges identified were training and willingness of decision makers to organize HTA units in the hospitals.Conclusions:An executive group was created which defined a strategy to support the implementation of HTA units as part of the HTA National Network (REBRATS). A regulation proposal was also created to encourage decision makers to activate a HTA network in the Federal District.

scholarly journals The Role of Media on Knowledge, Awareness and Students' Attitude during Movement Control Order (MCO)

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (16) ◽  
pp. 23-29
Author(s):  
Noreen Noor Abd Aziz ◽  
Juliana Mohd Abdul Kadir ◽  
Nadia Nurul Najwa Mohamad Hassan ◽  
Nor Balkish Zakaria ◽  
Gancar Candra Premananto
Keyword(s):  
Structural Equation ◽  
Publishing House ◽  
Movement Control ◽  
The Public ◽  
International Publishing ◽  
The Government ◽  
Control Order ◽  
Media Channels ◽  
Open Access Article

The Malaysian government had announced the Movement Control Order (MCO) to handle the Covid-19 crisis. During MCO, the government has used media channels to spread the information to the public. This research aims to identify the mediating part of both knowledge and awareness between students' attitude and media role during MCO. The findings from 338 respondents analysed using structural equation modelling found that knowledge and awareness mediate between media and students' attitude. This study could guide policymakers to promote a greater understanding of the coronavirus pandemic by using the mass media. Keywords: Knowledge, Awareness, Attitude, Role of Media eISSN: 2398-4287© 2021. The Authors. Published for AMER ABRA cE-Bs by e-International Publishing House, Ltd., UK. This is an open access article under the CC BYNC-ND license (http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/). Peer–review under responsibility of AMER (Association of Malaysian Environment-Behaviour Researchers), ABRA (Association of Behavioural Researchers on Asians/Africans/Arabians) and cE-Bs (Centre for Environment-Behaviour Studies), Faculty of Architecture, Planning & Surveying, Universiti Teknologi MARA, Malaysia. DOI: https://doi.org/10.21834/ebpj.v6i16.2712

scholarly journals SOME ASPECTS ABOUT MATHEMATICAL MODELING FOR EPIDEMIC MANAGEMENT

2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (2) ◽  
pp. 19-28
Author(s):  
Amelia BUCUR ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Mathematical Modeling ◽  
Mathematical Models ◽  
Health System ◽  
Public Health System ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Mathematical Study ◽  
The Public ◽  
A Value ◽  
New Models

The mathematical study of epidemics and their management has been performed for many years, however, in the last few years, new models have been published. Public health is considered very important and has to be monitored, as it is permanently under risk due to the appearance of even more types of microorganisms. Compartmental models, such as exponential models, SI, SIS, SIR, SEIRS, SEIAR, MESIR models, other generalized SIR models were and still are remarkable for studying the spread of an epidemic and for their simulations in software such as MATLAB, Maple, GLEAMviz, etc. The paper has two main objectives: a. to present new simulations in Maple and GLEAMviz for the spread of COVID-19; b. to suggest a generalization of the SIR model for analyzing the spread of COVID-19 and a simulation of it in GLEAMviz. The conclusions are that, generally, mathematical models show a value of a reproduction threshold, which can be used to forecast whether the pandemic is the increasing or decreasing phase, and that mathematical models and simulations in various programs facilitate the improvement of methods of analysis of an epidemic situation and the management of the public health system.

scholarly journals THE STRATEGIC MANAGEMENT MODEL FOR COVID 19 "A RACE AGAINST TIME": EVIDENCE FROM PEOPLE'S REPUBLIC OF CHINA

2021 ◽  
Vol 37 (03) ◽  
pp. 278-286
Author(s):  
Zahid Sarwar ◽  
Muhammad Asif Khan ◽  
Aaqib Sarwar
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Decision Making ◽  
Strategic Management ◽  
Health And Safety ◽  
Management Model ◽  
Republic Of China ◽  
The Public ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Emergency Decision Making ◽  
Emergency Decision

This article narrates that strategic leadership thinking and quick decision- making ability are vital to minimize the negative impact of COVID 19 on the public health and safety. Current outbreak poses serious need to develop a model for tackling the outbreak. The study also argues that the strategic management process and emergency decision-making provide direction to the leadership efforts in ensuring public health and enable scientific allocation of resources during the COVID 19 pandemic. The study presents the strategic management model of COVID 19 by integrating the strategic management process with emergency decision-making model. The study applies the model on People's Republic of China experience with COVID 19 and finds high applicability of proposed model. Moreover, the study argues that other countries can use proposed model to guard the public health and safety by defeating COVID 19. Deloped strategic management model posses a significant practical implications in the current scenarios, as COVID 19 is posing a threat to human race.

scholarly journals Extension of a SIR model for modelling the propagation of Covid-19 in several countries.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marc Lavielle ◽  
Matthieu Faron ◽  
jeremie lefevre ◽  
Jean-David Zeitoun
Keyword(s):  
Compartmental Model ◽  
Transmission Rate ◽  
Sir Model ◽  
Decision Makers ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Early Evaluation ◽  
The Public ◽  
Containment Measures ◽  
High Level ◽  
Over Time

Background Several epidemiologic models have been published to forecast the spread of the COVID-19 pandemic yet there are still uncertainties regarding their accuracy. We report the main features of the development of a novel freely accessible model intended to urgently help researchers and decision makers to predict the evolution of the pandemic in their country. Methods and findings We built a SIR-type compartmental model with additional compartments and features. We made the hypothesis that the number of contagious individuals in the population was negligible as compared to the population size. We introduced a compartment D corresponding to the deceased patients and a compartment L representing the group of individuals who will die but who will not infect anybody (due to social or medical isolation). Our model integrated a time-dependent transmission rate, whose variations can be thought to be related to the public measures taken by each country and a cosine function to incorporate a periodic weekly component linked to the way in which numbers of cases and deaths are counted and reported, which can change from day to day. The model was able to accurately capture the different changes in the dynamics of the pandemic for nine different countries whatever the type of pandemic spread or containment measures. The model provided very accurate forecasts in the relatively short term (10 days). Conclusions In early evaluation of the performance of our model, we found a high level of accuracy between prediction and observed data, regardless of the country. The model should be used by the community to help public health decisions as we will refine it over time and further investigate its performance.

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