scholarly journals Time-adjusted Analysis Shows Weak Associations Between BCG Vaccination Policy and COVID-19 Disease Progression

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Katarína Bod’ová ◽  
Vladimír Boža ◽  
Broňa Brejová ◽  
Richard Kollár ◽  
Katarína Mikušová ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Progression ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Vaccination Status ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Weak Correlation ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Adjusted Analysis ◽  
Adjusted Indicators

AbstractIn this study, we ascertain the associations between BCG vaccination policies and progression of COVID-19 through analysis of various time-adjusted indicators either directly extracted from the incidence and death reports, or estimated as parameters of disease progression models. We observe weak correlation between BCG vaccination status and indicators related to disease reproduction characteristics. We did not find any associations with case fatality rates (CFR), but the differences in CFR estimates are at present likely dominated by differences in testing and case reporting between countries.

scholarly journals Correlation between immunity from BCG and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dakshitha Wickramasinghe ◽  
Nilanka Wickramasinghe ◽  
Sohan Anjana Kamburugamuwa ◽  
Carukshi Arambepola ◽  
Dharmabandhu N Samarasekera
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Income Level ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Background To investigate the association between parameters indicating immunity from BCG at country level (presence of BCG vaccination policy, BCG coverage, age-specific incidence of tuberculosis(TB)) and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. Methods Country-specific data for COVID-19 cases and deaths, demographic details, BCG coverage and policy, age-specific TB incidence and income level were obtained. The crude COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 population were calculated and assessed against the parameters indicating immunity from BCG using linear regression analysis. Results Univariate analysis identified higher income level of a country to be significantly associated with COVID-19 cases (p<0.0001) and deaths (p<0.0001) but not with its case fatality rate. The association between COVID-19 and TB was strongest for TB incidence in patients >65-years (Cases(rs=-0.785,p=0.0001)) and deaths (rs=-0.647,p=0.0001).Multivariate analysis identified the higher income level of a country and not having a universal BCG vaccination policy to affect the COVID-19 cases. The deaths were inversely affected by the presence of BCG vaccination policy and coverage; and positively by the TB incidence in patients >65-years. Conclusion Significant inverse correlations observed between cases and deaths of COVID-19 and BCG related parameters highlights immunity from BCG as a likely explanation for the variation in COVID-19 across countries.

scholarly journals Correlation between immunity from BCG and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dakshitha Wickramasinghe ◽  
Nilanka Wickramasinghe ◽  
Sohan Anjana Kamburugamuwa ◽  
Carukshi Arambepola ◽  
Dharmabandhu N Samarasekera
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Income Level ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Purpose To investigate the association between parameters indicating immunity from BCG at country level (presence of BCG vaccination policy, BCG coverage, age-specific incidence of tuberculosis (TB)) and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. Methods Country-specific data for COVID-19 cases and deaths, demographic details, BCG coverage and policy, age-specific TB incidence and income level were obtained. The crude COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 population were calculated and assessed against the parameters indicating the immunity from BCG using linear regression analysis. Results Univariate analysis identified higher income level of a country to be significantly associated with COVID-19 cases (p<0.0001) and deaths (p<0.0001) but not with its case fatality rate. The association between COVID-19 and TB was strongest for TB incidence in patients >65-years (Cases(r s =-0.785,p=0.0001)) and deaths (r s =-0.647,p=0.0001). Multivariate analysis identified the higher income level of a country and not having a universal BCG vaccination policy to affect the COVID-19 cases. The deaths were affected negatively by the presence of BCG vaccination policy and coverage; and positively by the TB incidence in patients >65-years. Conclusion Significant negative correlations observed between cases and deaths of COVID-19 and parameters indicating immunity from BCG highlight a likely explanation for the variation in COVID-19 across countries.

scholarly journals Correlation between immunity from BCG and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dakshitha Wickramasinghe ◽  
Nilanka Wickramasinghe ◽  
Sohan Anjana Kamburugamuwa ◽  
Carukshi Arambepola ◽  
Dharmabandhu N Samarasekera
Keyword(s):  
Linear Regression Analysis ◽  
Univariate Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Income Level ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Specific Data ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Country Level ◽  
Country Specific

Abstract Background To investigate the association between parameters indicating immunity from BCG at country level (presence of BCG vaccination policy, BCG coverage, age-specific incidence of tuberculosis(TB)) and the morbidity and mortality of COVID-19. Methods Country-specific data for COVID-19 cases and deaths, demographic details, BCG coverage and policy, age-specific TB incidence and income level were obtained. The crude COVID-19 cases and deaths per 100,000 population were calculated and assessed against the parameters indicating immunity from BCG using linear regression analysis. Results Univariate analysis identified higher income level of a country to be significantly associated with COVID-19 cases (p<0.0001) and deaths (p<0.0001) but not with its case fatality rate. The association between COVID-19 and TB was strongest for TB incidence in patients >65-years (Cases(rs=-0.785,p=0.0001)) and deaths (rs=-0.647,p=0.0001).Multivariate analysis identified the higher income level of a country and not having a universal BCG vaccination policy to affect the COVID-19 cases. The deaths were inversely affected by the presence of BCG vaccination policy and coverage; and positively by the TB incidence in patients >65-years. Conclusion Significant inverse correlations observed between cases and deaths of COVID-19 and BCG related parameters highlights immunity from BCG as a likely explanation for the variation in COVID-19 across countries.

scholarly journals Connecting BCG Vaccination and COVID-19: Additional Data

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Devi Dayal ◽  
Saniya Gupta
Keyword(s):  
Disease Burden ◽  
Additional Data ◽  
Severe Disease ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiological Data ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Significant Difference ◽  
The Impact ◽  
High Disease Burden

AbstractThe reasons for a wide variation in severity of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) across the affected countries of the world are not known. Two recent studies have suggested a link between the BCG vaccination policy and the morbidity and mortality due to COVID-19. In the present study we compared the impact of COVID-19 in terms of case fatality rates (CFR) between countries with high disease burden and those with BCG revaccination policies presuming that revaccination practices would have provided added protection to the population against severe COVID-19. We found a significant difference in the CFR between the two groups of countries. Our data further supports the view that universal BCG vaccination has a protective effect on the course of COVID-19 probably preventing progression to severe disease and death. Clinical trials of BCG vaccine are urgently needed to establish its beneficial role in COVID-19 as suggested by the epidemiological data, especially in countries without a universal BCG vaccination policy.

scholarly journals Correlation between COVID-19 case fatality rate and percentage of BCG vaccination: is it true the vaccine is protective?

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Aliae A. R. Mohamed Hussein ◽  
Marwa Rashad Salem ◽  
Samar Salman ◽  
A F Abdulrahim ◽  
Nasrallah A. Al Massry ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Coverage ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Epidemiological Studies ◽  
Protective Role ◽  
Main Body ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Different Populations

Abstract Background The observations of some recent epidemiological studies offer hope for a reduced impact of COVID-19 for countries which practice universal BCG vaccination policy. Main body This report provides a correlation between the case fatality rates of COVID-19 and the percentage of BCG vaccination coverage in 183 most affected countries. The main objective of this observational ecologic report is to evaluate possible effects of the previous BCG vaccination in different populations and the epidemic outcomes specially the rates of severe/critical cases and case fatalities. The analysis is preliminary since it is based on constantly rolling data while the COVID-19 pandemic is still unfolding. Conclusion Our findings seem to support the fact that an older BCG vaccine may have a protective role in avoiding severe/critical SARS-CoV2 pneumonia and relatively decrease its fatalities.

scholarly journals BCG protects against COVID-19? A word of caution

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reka Szigeti ◽  
Domos Kellermayer ◽  
Richard Kellermayer
Keyword(s):  
Case Fatality ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Protective Measures ◽  
Scientific Rigor ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Public Media ◽  
Arbitrary Selection ◽  
Viral Outbreak

AbstractThe COVID-19 pandemic, caused by type 2 Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus (SARS-CoV-2), puts all of us to the test. Epidemiologic observations could critically aid the development of protective measures to combat this devastating viral outbreak. A recent publication, linked nation based universal Bacillus Calmette-Guerin (BCG) vaccination to potential protection against morbidity and mortality from SARS-CoV-2, and received much attention in public media, even before its peer review. We wished to validate the findings by examining the association between daily rates of COVID-19 case fatality (i.e. Death Per Case) /Days of the endemic [dpc/d]) and the presence of universal BCG vaccination before 1980, or the year of the establishment of universal vaccination. There was no significant association in either analysis. In this work we emphasize caution amidst the publication surge on COVID-19, and highlight the political/economical-, arbitrary selection-, and fear/anxiety related biases, which may obscure scientific rigor. It is underscored that physical (social) distancing (i.e. quarantine) and use of personal protective equipment (PPE) are the only epidemiologic measures (Iceland being a great example, where universal BCG vaccination policy was never in place), which consistently associate with successful counteraction of morbidity and mortality during the pandemic.

scholarly journals BCG VACCINES MAY NOT REDUCE COVID-19 MORTALITY RATES

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Samer Singh
Keyword(s):  
Access To Health Care ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Incidence Rates ◽  
Interferon Gamma Release Assay ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Individual Country ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
Environmental Mycobacteria

ABSTRACTThe reason for the observed country-wise variability in incidence and severity of the COVID-19 outcome remains unknown. Few recent studies have suggested a positive protective correlation of the BCG vaccination policy of the countries with the observed COVID-19 severity. The current study was undertaken to reassess the existing data as of 4th April 2020. The incidence rates (cases per million population), Case Fatality Rates (CFR) and inherently more robust Infection Fatality Rates (IFR) were calculated across countries accounting for about 99% COVID-19 deaths. The initial scrutiny suggested a weaker association with BCG vaccination policy or BCG coverage, so positivity to the Tuberculin Sensitivity Test (TST)/ Interferon Gamma Release Assay (IGRA) as a measure of the potential protective effect of the resident populations’ exposure to Mycobacterium spp. whether from BCG vaccination or as a result of exposure to environmental mycobacteria was analyzed. The incidence rates (the number of cases per million population) decreased with an increase in % LTBI (TST/IGRA positivity) for the analyzed countries with R2 =0.6343, suggesting an exponentially negative covariation. However, the covariation of CFR estimates that ranged from 0.29% to 12.25 % (average 5.39%) among countries, was tenuous. Interim estimates of IFR (i-IFR), a more dependable measure for such studies, for the best and worst-case scenarios, i.e., i-IFR-l and i-IFR-h, predict on an average 20.57% to 30.15 % COVID-19 fatality rates globally, but individual country estimates display huge variation. Among countries accounting for 92.14% deaths (11 countries; top 20% countries included in current study) the estimate for lowest IFRs (i-IFR-l=4.16 (China) & i-IFR-h=4.61 (China)) and highest IFRs (i-IFR-l=96.39% (UK); & i-IFR-h=96.54% (UK)) displayed huge difference (average for the group: CFR=6.8±3.6%; i-IFR-l=34.97±30.55%; & i-IFR-h=44.20±29.08%). Currently, the worst affected countries Italy (CFR=12.25%; i-IFR-l=42.63%; i-IFR-h=48.69%) and Spain (CFR=9.39%; i- IFR-l=26.85%; i-IFR-h=36.60%) would seemingly cope with COVID-19 better than UK, Netherlands and USA while the countries Germany (CFR=1.40%; i-IFR-l=4.93%; i-IFR-h=17.49%) and Switzerland (CFR=3.01%; i-IFR-l=10.87%; i-IFR-h=16.23%) along with China could fare the best. The rest of the 80% countries (accounting for 6.74% deaths), seemed to have reduced mortality (CFR=2.45±2.01; i-IFR-l= 30.62±28.24%; i-IFR-h=40.99±30.47%) with associated high % LTBI (17.28±8.87) than top 20% countries. The inherent issues in the data set (e.g., heterogeneity, non- random sampling, different criteria of sampling and reporting, access to health care, genetic composition, underlying co-morbidities, etc) need to be taken into account for making informed decisions.

Explore the Possible Impact of BCG Vaccination Policy on the Morbidity, Mortality, and Recovery Rates due to COVID-19 Infection. (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yue-Cune Chang
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Randomized Clinical Trials ◽  
Vaccination Policy ◽  
Bacille Calmette Guerin ◽  
Recovery Rates ◽  
Bcg Vaccination ◽  
The World ◽  
New Form ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Disease Specific

BACKGROUND The Coronavirus Disease-19 (COVID-19) is the new form of an acute infectious respiratory disease and has quickly spread over most continents in the world. Recently, it has been shown that Bacille Calmette-Guerin (BCG) might protect against COVID-19. This study aims to investigate the possible correlation between BCG vaccination and morbidity/mortality/recovery rate associated with COVID-19 infection. OBJECTIVE Our findings confirm that the BCG vaccination might protect against COVID-19 virus infection. METHODS Data of COVID-19 confirmed cases, deaths, recoveries, and population were obtained from https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/ (Accessed on 12 June, 2020). To have meaningful comparisons among countries’ mortality and recovery rates, we only choose those countries with COVID-19 infected cases at least 200. The Poisson regression and logistic regression were used to explore the relationship between BCG vaccination and morbidity, mortality and recovery rates. RESULTS Among those 158 countries with at least 200 COVID-19 infected cases, there were 141 countries with BCG vaccination information available. The adjusted rates ratio of COVID-19 confirmed cases for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination was 0.339 (with 95% CI= (0.338,0.340)). Moreover, the adjusted odds ratio (OR) of death and recovery after coronavirus infected for Current BCG vaccination vs. non-Current BCG vaccination were 0.258 (with 95% CI= (0.254,0.261)) and 2.151 (with 95% CI= (2.140,2.163)), respectively. CONCLUSIONS That data in this study show the BCG might provide the protection against COVID-19, with consequent less COVID-19 infection and deaths and more rapid recovery. BCG vaccine might bridge the gap before the disease-specific vaccine is developed, but this hypothesis needs to be further tested in rigorous randomized clinical trials. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT RR2-https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.06.14.20131268

scholarly journals Age and Infectious Dose Significantly Affect Disease Progression after RHDV2 Infection in Naïve Domestic Rabbits

Viruses ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 13 (6) ◽  
pp. 1184
Author(s):  
Robyn N. Hall ◽  
Tegan King ◽  
Tiffany O’Connor ◽  
Andrew J. Read ◽  
Jane Arrow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
New Zealand ◽  
Disease Progression ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Low Dose ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Wild Rabbit ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
Infectious Dose ◽  
Welfare Impacts ◽  
Rabbit Haemorrhagic Disease

Rabbit haemorrhagic disease virus 2 (RHDV2 or GI.2, referring to any virus with lagovirus GI.2 structural genes) is a recently emerged calicivirus that causes generalised hepatic necrosis and disseminated intravascular coagulation leading to death in susceptible lagomorphs (rabbits and hares). Previous studies investigating the virulence of RHDV2 have reported conflicting results, with case fatality rates ranging from 0% to 100% even within a single study. Lagoviruses are of particular importance in Australia and New Zealand where they are used as biocontrol agents to manage wild rabbit populations, which threaten over 300 native species and result in economic impacts in excess of $200 million AUD annually to Australian agricultural industries. It is critically important that any pest control method is both highly effective (i.e., virulent, in the context of viral biocontrols) and has minimal animal welfare impacts. To determine whether RHDV2 might be a suitable candidate biocontrol agent, we investigated the virulence and disease progression of a naturally occurring Australian recombinant RHDV2 in both 5-week-old and 11-week-old New Zealand White laboratory rabbits after either high or low dose oral infection. Objective measures of disease progression were recorded through continuous body temperature monitoring collars, continuous activity monitors, and twice daily observations. We observed a 100% case fatality rate in both infected kittens and adult rabbits after either high dose or low dose infection. Clinical signs of disease, such as pyrexia, weight loss, and reduced activity, were evident in the late stages of infection. Clinical disease, i.e., welfare impacts, were limited to the period after the onset of pyrexia, lasting on average 12 h and increasing in severity as disease progressed. These findings confirm the high virulence of this RHDV2 variant in naïve rabbits. While age and infectious dose significantly affected disease progression, the case fatality rate was consistently 100% under all conditions tested.

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