scholarly journals COVID-19 outbreak in Italy: estimation of reproduction numbers over two months toward the Phase 2

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mattia Allieta ◽  
Andrea Allieta ◽  
Davide Rossi Sebastiano
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Mean Value ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
First Case ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Demographic Indices ◽  
The Government ◽  
Early Effects ◽  
Control Regime

After two months from the first case in COVID-19 outbreak, Italy counts more than 190,000 confirmed positive cases. From the beginning of April 2020, the nationwide lockdown started to show early effects by reducing the total cumulative incidence reached by the epidemic wave. This allows the government to program the measures to loosen lockdown restrictions for the so called "Phase 2". Here we provided the reproduction number estimation both in space and in time from February 24th to April 24th, 2020 across two months into the epidemic. Our estimates suggest basic reproduction number averaged over all the regions of 3.29, confirming that epidemiological figures of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in Italy are higher than those observed at the early stage of Wuhan (China) outbreak. Based on the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics reported here, we gave a quantitative evaluation of the efficiency of the government measures to low the reproduction number under the unity (control regime). We estimated that among the worst hit regions in Italy, Lombardy reached the control regime on March 22nd followed by Emilia-Romagna (March 23th), Veneto (March 25th) and Piemonte (March 26th). Overall, we found that the mean value of time to reach the control regime in all the country is about 31 days from the February 24th and about 14 days from the first day of nationwide lockdown (March 12th). Finally, we highlighted the interplay between the reproduction number and two demographic indices in order to probe the "state of activity" of the epidemic for each Italian region in the control regime. We believe that this approach can provide a tool in the management of "Phase 2", potentially helping in challenging decision to continue, ease or tighten up restrictions.

scholarly journals The Outcome and Implications of Public Precautionary Measures in Taiwan–Declining Respiratory Disease Cases in the COVID-19 Pandemic

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (13) ◽  
pp. 4877 ◽  
Author(s):  
Chih-Chia Hsieh ◽  
Chih-Hao Lin ◽  
William Yu Chung Wang ◽  
David J. Pauleen ◽  
Jengchung Victor Chen
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Infectious Disease ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Rapid Development ◽  
Major Purpose ◽  
Mortality And Morbidity ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government

With the rapid development of the COVID-19 pandemic, countries are trying to cope with increasing medical demands, and, at the same time, to reduce the increase of infected numbers by implementing a number of public health measures, namely non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs). These public health measures can include social distancing, frequent handwashing, and personal protective equipment (PPE) at the personal level; at the community and the government level, these measures can range from canceling activities, avoiding mass gatherings, closing facilities, and, at the extreme, enacting national or provincial lockdowns. Rather than completely stopping the infectious disease, the major purpose of these NPIs in facing an emerging infectious disease is to reduce the contact rate within the population, and reduce the spread of the virus until the time a vaccine or reliable medications become available. The idea is to avoid a surge of patients with severe symptoms beyond the capacity of the hospitals’ medical resources, which would lead to more mortality and morbidity. While many countries have experienced steep curves in new cases, some, including Hong Kong, Vietnam, South Korea, New Zealand, and Taiwan, seem to have controlled or even eliminated the infection locally. From its first case of COVID-19 on the 21 January until the 12 May, Taiwan had 440 cases, including just 55 local infections, and seven deaths in total, representing 1.85 cases per 100,000 population and a 1.5% death rate (based on the Worldometer 2020 statistics of Taiwan’s population of 23.8 million). This paper presents evidence that spread prevention involving mass masking and universal hygiene at the early stage of the COVID-19 pandemic resulted in a 50% decline of infectious respiratory diseases, based on historical data during the influenza season in Taiwan. These outcomes provide potential support for the effectiveness of widely implementing public health precaution measures in controlling COVID-19 without a lockdown policy.

scholarly journals Understanding South Korea’s Response to the COVID-19 Outbreak: A Real-Time Analysis

2020 ◽  
Vol 17 (24) ◽  
pp. 9571
Author(s):  
Eunsun Jeong ◽  
Munire Hagose ◽  
Hyungul Jung ◽  
Moran Ki ◽  
Antoine Flahault
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Religious Movement ◽  
Human Right ◽  
Real Time Analysis ◽  
First Case ◽  
Large Outbreak ◽  
Huge Impact ◽  
The Government ◽  
Public Message

This case study focuses on the epidemiological situation of the COVID-19 outbreak, its impacts and the measures South Korea undertook during the first wave of the COVID-19 pandemic. Since the first case was confirmed on 20 January 2020, South Korea has been actively experiencing the COVID-19 outbreak. In the early stage of the pandemic, South Korea was one of the most-affected countries because of a large outbreak related to meetings of a religious movement, namely the Shincheonji Church of Jesus, in a city called Daegu and North Gyeongsang province. However, South Korea was held as a model for many other countries as it appeared to slow the spread of the outbreak with distinctive approaches and interventions. First of all, with drastic and early intervention strategies it conducted massive tracing and testing in a combination of case isolation. These measures were underpinned by transparent risk communication, civil society mobilization, improvement of accessibility and affordability of the treatment and test, the consistent public message on the potential benefit of wearing a mask, and innovation. Innovative measures include the mobile case-tracing application, mobile self-quarantine safety protection application, mobile self-diagnosis application, and drive-thru screening centres. Meanwhile, the epidemic has brought enormous impacts on society economically and socially. Given its relationship with China, where the outbreak originated, the economic impact in South Korea was predicted to be intense and it was already observed since February due to a decline in exports. The pandemic and measures undertaken by the government also have resulted in social conflicts and debates, human-right concerns, and political tension. Moreover, it was believed that the outbreak of COVID-19 and the governmental responses towards it has brought a huge impact on the general election in April. Despite of the large outbreak in late February, the Korean government has flattened the COVID-19 curve successfully and the downward trend in the number of new cases remained continuously as of 30 April. The most distinctive feature of South Korea’s responses is that South Korea conducted proactive case finding, contacts tracing, and isolations of cases instead of taking traditional measures of the containment of the epidemic such as boarder closures and lockdowns.

scholarly journals Evaluating the effect of Chinese control measures on COVID-19 via temporal reproduction number estimation

PLoS ONE ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 16 (2) ◽  
pp. e0246715
Author(s):  
Duanbing Chen ◽  
Tao Zhou
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Mainland China ◽  
Complete Information ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Research Needs ◽  
Temporal Reproduction ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Province Level ◽  
Level Analysis

Control measures are necessary to contain the spread of serious infectious diseases such as COVID-19, especially in its early stage. We propose to use temporal reproduction number an extension of effective reproduction number, to evaluate the efficacy of control measures, and establish a Monte-Carlo method to estimate the temporal reproduction number without complete information about symptom onsets. The province-level analysis indicates that the effective reproduction numbers of the majority of provinces in mainland China got down to < 1 just by one week from the setting of control measures, and the temporal reproduction number of the week [15 Feb, 21 Feb] is only about 0.18. It is therefore likely that Chinese control measures on COVID-19 are effective and efficient, though more research needs to be performed.

scholarly journals An investigation of spatial-temporal patterns and predictions of the COVID-19 pandemic in Colombia, 2020-2021

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Amna Tariq ◽  
Tsira Chakhaia ◽  
Sushma Dahal ◽  
Alexander Ewing ◽  
Xinyi Hua ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Media ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Growth Dynamics ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Incidence Data ◽  
Richards Model ◽  
First Case ◽  
Reproduction Numbers

Colombia announced the first case of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 on March 6, 2020. Since then, the country has reported a total of 4,240,982 cases and 106,544 deaths as of June 30, 2021. This motivates an investigation of the SARS-CoV-2 transmission dynamics at the national and regional level using case incidence data. Mathematical models are employed to estimate the transmission potential and perform short-term forecasts of the COVID-19 epidemic trajectory in Colombia. Furthermore, geographic heterogeneity of COVID-19 in Colombia is examined along with the analysis of mobility and social media trends, showing that the increase in mobility in July 2020 and January 2021 were correlated with surges in case incidence. The estimation of national and regional reproduction numbers shows sustained disease transmission during the early phase of the pandemic, exhibiting sub-exponential growth dynamics. Moreover, most recent estimates of reproduction number are >1.0 at the national and regional levels as of May 30, 2021. Further, the 30-day ahead short-term forecasts obtained from Richards model present a sustained decline in case counts in contrast to the sub-epidemic and GLM model. Nevertheless, our spatial analysis in Colombia shows distinct variations in incidence rate patterns across different departments that can be grouped into four distinct clusters. Lastly, the correlation of social media trends and adherence to social distancing measures is observed by the fact that a spike in the number of tweets indicating the stay-at-home orders was observed in November 2020 when the case incidence had already plateaued.

scholarly journals Spatial variability in reproduction number and doubling time across two waves of the COVID-19 pandemic in South Korea, February to July 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eunha Shim ◽  
Amna Tariq ◽  
Gerardo Chowell
Keyword(s):  
South Korea ◽  
Doubling Time ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
List Type ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Gyeonggi Province ◽  
The Government ◽  
Second Wave

AbstractObjectivesIn South Korea, 13,745 cases of coronavirus disease (COVID-19) have been reported as of 19 July, 2020. To examine the spatiotemporal changes in the transmission potential, we present regional estimates of the doubling time and reproduction number (Rt) of COVID-19 in the country.MethodsDaily series of confirmed COVID-19 cases in the most affected regions were extracted from publicly available sources. We employed established mathematical and statistical methods to investigate the time-varying reproduction numbers of the COVID-19 in Korea and its doubling time, respectively.ResultsAt the regional level, Seoul and Gyeonggi Province have experienced the first peak of COVID-19 in early March, followed by the second wave in early June, with Rt exceeding 3.0 and mean doubling time ranging from 3.6 to 10.1 days. As of 19 July, 2020, Gyeongbuk Province and Daegu are yet to experience a second wave of the disease, where the mean Rt reached 3.5-4.4 and doubling time ranging from 2.8 to 4.6 days during the first wave.ConclusionsOur findings support the effectiveness of control measures against COVID-19 in Korea. However, the easing of the restrictions imposed by the government in May 2020 facilitated a second wave in the greater Seoul area.HighlightsSouth Korea has experienced two spatially heterogenous waves of COVID-19.Seoul and Gyeonggi Province experienced two waves of COVID-19 in March and June.In the densely populated Seoul and nearby areas, reproduction numbers exceeded 3.0.The easing of the social distancing measures resulted in the second wave.

KAJIAN DAMPAK KEBIJAKAN PENUTUPAN LOKALISASI TELEJU OLEH PEMERINTAH KOTA PEKANBARU

2017 ◽  
Vol 15 (2) ◽  
pp. 78
Author(s):  
M. Zainuddin
Keyword(s):  
Social Order ◽  
Qualitative Method ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Policy Research ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Policy Content ◽  
The Government ◽  
Closure Policy ◽  
The Impact

This research to analyze the impact of closure policy Teleju brothel by Pekanbaru govermentin 2010. Guidelines for works are Pekanbaru Local Regulations No. 12 of 2008 on Social Order-liness. Closure this brothel inflicts positive and negative impact for society.The research wasconducted to obtain early stage formula for the government to take action against the prostitu-tion activities. This research uses policy research approach with a qualitative method, becausein prostitution activities and prohibition by goverment is an assessment that needs to be done byanalyzing documents and unstructured interview.The results showed that after the closing of the Teleju brothel have an impact on the deploy-ment of a prostitution and affect the economy of the surrounding residents. Government seeksto tackle prostitution in Pekanbaru by moving the brothel, conduct regular raids and providetraining. The effort is considered to be less than the maximum because the handling is not basedon the root of the problem and not programmed properly. There are several causes of failure ofgovernment to overcome the prostitution problem in Pekanbaru, including: policy content isless focus on the prostitution problem, the government did not proceeds with data, lack of finan-cial support, contra productive programs between local government with the police and TNI,and the policy object is difficult to be given understanding.

COVID-19 Related Web Search Behaviors: An Analytical Study of Google Trends-based Query Volumes in Indonesia (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Vita Widyasari ◽  
Karisma Trinanda Putra ◽  
Jiun-Yi Wang
Keyword(s):  
Web Search ◽  
Public Awareness ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Community Response ◽  
Google Trends ◽  
P Value ◽  
Basic Information ◽  
First Case ◽  
The Government ◽  
Economic Anxiety

BACKGROUND The volume of search keywords on Google can be used as a reference to an ongoing online trend during COVID-19 pandemic. OBJECTIVE This study was aimed to estimate the responsiveness and public awareness in early days of the COVID-19 outbreak in Indonesia using Google Trends relative search volumes (RSV). METHODS Sixty terms or keywords forming six topics included in the analysis were basic information, prevention, government policy, socio-economic, anxiety, and other issues related to COVID-19. All these keywords were checked for surveillance purposes between January 1 and May 4, 2020. The Python programming language was used for data mining from Google Trends databases. Correlation analysis was conducted to examine the correlations between the incidence of COVID-19 and the search terms. RESULTS Community response and awareness in the six topics were associated with the number of COVID-19 cases (r range between 0.570-0.825, P-value<.005). Before the first case announced in Indonesian, the prominent topics were basic information and other issues. One month after the first case, all topics experienced an increase in RSV. In the phase of outbreak, socio-economic and anxiety got much more attentions. CONCLUSIONS The government should consider to optimize the internet as a media for timely delivering most relevant information and dynamically respond massive queries, and improve health communications to increase public awareness and intention to prevent the disease.

Covid-19 Cases in India: A Visual Exploratory Data Analysis Model (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jayesh S
Keyword(s):  
Data Analysis ◽  
Exploratory Data Analysis ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Public Health Emergency ◽  
Virus Spread ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Case Fatality Ratio ◽  
First Case ◽  
Exploratory Data ◽  
The Government

UNSTRUCTURED Covid-19 outbreak was first reported in Wuhan, China. The deadly virus spread not just the disease, but fear around the globe. On January 2020, WHO declared COVID-19 as a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC). First case of Covid-19 in India was reported on January 30, 2020. By the time, India was prepared in fighting against the virus. India has taken various measures to tackle the situation. In this paper, an exploratory data analysis of Covid-19 cases in India is carried out. Data namely number of cases, testing done, Case Fatality ratio, Number of deaths, change in visits stringency index and measures taken by the government is used for modelling and visual exploratory data analysis.

COVID-19: Time-Dependent Effective Reproduction Number and Sub-notification Effect Estimation Modeling (Preprint)

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Eduardo Atem De Carvalho ◽  
Rogerio Atem De Carvalho
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Moving Average ◽  
Real Data ◽  
Time Dependent ◽  
Initial Value ◽  
Health Authorities ◽  
Reproduction Numbers ◽  
Effect Estimation ◽  
The Impact

BACKGROUND Since the beginning of the COVID-19 pandemic, researchers and health authorities have sought to identify the different parameters that govern their infection and death cycles, in order to be able to make better decisions. In particular, a series of reproduction number estimation models have been presented, with different practical results. OBJECTIVE This article aims to present an effective and efficient model for estimating the Reproduction Number and to discuss the impacts of sub-notification on these calculations. METHODS The concept of Moving Average Method with Initial value (MAMI) is used, as well as a model for Rt, the Reproduction Number, is derived from experimental data. The models are applied to real data and their performance is presented. RESULTS Analyses on Rt and sub-notification effects for Germany, Italy, Sweden, United Kingdom, South Korea, and the State of New York are presented to show the performance of the methods here introduced. CONCLUSIONS We show that, with relatively simple mathematical tools, it is possible to obtain reliable values for time-dependent, incubation period-independent Reproduction Numbers (Rt). We also demonstrate that the impact of sub-notification is relatively low, after the initial phase of the epidemic cycle has passed.

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