scholarly journals Bayesian Network Analysis of Covid-19 data reveals higher Infection Prevalence Rates and lower Fatality Rates than widely reported

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Martin Neil ◽  
Norman Fenton ◽  
Magda Osman ◽  
Scott McLachlan
Keyword(s):  
Bayesian Network ◽  
Infection Prevalence ◽  
Prevalence Rates ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Survey Quality ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Order Of Magnitude ◽  
Community Infection

AbstractWidely reported statistics on Covid-19 across the globe fail to take account of both the uncertainty of the data and possible explanations for this uncertainty. In this paper we use a Bayesian Network (BN) model to estimate the Covid-19 infection prevalence rate (IPR) and infection fatality rate (IFR) for different countries and regions, where relevant data are available. This combines multiple sources of data in a single model. The results show that Chelsea Mass. USA and Gangelt Germany have relatively higher infection prevalence rates (IPR) than Santa Clara USA, Kobe, Japan and England and Wales. In all cases the infection prevalence is significantly higher than what has been widely reported, with much higher community infection rates in all locations. For Santa Clara and Chelsea, both in the USA, the most likely IFR values are 0.3-0.4%. Kobe, Japan is very unusual in comparison with the others with values an order of magnitude less than the others at, 0.001%. The IFR for Spain is centred around 1%. England and Wales lie between Spain and the USA/German values with an IFR around 0.8%. There remains some uncertainty around these estimates but an IFR greater than 1% looks remote for all regions/countries. We use a Bayesian technique called ‘virtual evidence’ to test the sensitivity of the IFR to two significant sources of uncertainty: survey quality and uncertainty about Covid-19 death counts. In response the adjusted estimates for IFR are most likely to be in the range 0.3%-0.5%.

scholarly journals Prevalence, distribution, and risk factors for canine blastomycosis in Michigan, USA

2019 ◽  
Vol 58 (5) ◽  
pp. 609-616 ◽  
Author(s):  
Leslie M Shelnutt ◽  
John B Kaneene ◽  
Paulo A M Carneiro ◽  
Daniel K Langlois
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Animal Health ◽  
Infection Prevalence ◽  
Prevalence Rates ◽  
Retrospective Case ◽  
Upper Peninsula ◽  
Tourist Destinations ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Risk Areas ◽  
Canine Blastomycosis

Abstract Blastomycosis is a systemic fungal infection that most commonly affects dogs and humans. The disease is thought to be endemic in southern regions of Michigan, USA, but epidemiologic investigations have not been reported in detail for this state. The primary aims of this study were to investigate the prevalence and distribution of canine blastomycosis cases in Michigan and to identify risk factors for infection. Over 200 primary care veterinary clinics throughout the state were surveyed regarding blastomycosis prevalence, and demographic information was obtained from medical records of affected dogs that were evaluated at these clinics. A retrospective case control study was conducted for an additional 49 dogs with blastomycosis that were evaluated at specialty referral centers located in the southern mid-Michigan region. Prevalence rates were calculated for each county, and cases were mapped using geocoding software. Univariable and multivariable analyses were used to identify risk factors for infection. Prevalence rates were ≥100 cases per 100,000 dogs in five counties. Most blastomycosis cases originated from the Upper Peninsula or from a high-density area in the northern Lower Peninsula. Multivariable regression analysis identified travel or residence north of the 45th parallel as a strong risk factor for infection (P < .001). Blastomycosis was uncommon in southern counties. These results refute previous speculations and should be of value to both human and animal health. Given that many heightened risk areas are popular tourist destinations, practitioners across the USA should be mindful of the spatial distribution of blastomycosis in Michigan.

scholarly journals A ‘Life-Style Choice’ or a Philosophical Belief?: The Argument for Veganism and Vegetarianism to be a Protected Philosophical Belief and the Position in England and Wales

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Paul McKeown ◽  
Rachel Ann Dunn
Keyword(s):  
Animal Welfare ◽  
Life Style ◽  
Employment Law ◽  
England And Wales ◽  
Philosophical Beliefs ◽  
The Usa

AbstractThe recent judgment in Casamitjana Costa v The League Against Cruel Sports in England and Wales held that ethical veganism was a protected philosophical belief under employment law. In contrast, vegetarianism was found not to be a protected philosophical belief in Conisbee v Crossley Farms Limited and others. The authors argue that the Employment Tribunal misunderstood the notion of vegetarianism when deciding that it was a ‘life-style choice’. There are different kinds of vegans and vegetarians, each with their own way of practising the philosophy which influences how they live their life. Not all people who follow a meat-free diet should be afforded this protection, and it depends on whether their belief is one which is determined by certain factors, such as animal welfare and environmentalism, rather than for health purposes. The authors explore the arguments and analysis in the above employment cases, coming to the conclusion that the tribunals oversimplified what it means to hold values such as veganism and vegetarianism, failing to understand the differences between different classifications and sub-groups when coming to a decision. The different kinds of vegans and vegetarians and their characteristics are outlined, before determining whether this should constitute protection under employment law, protecting individuals from discrimination. The situation in the USA and Canada regarding this issue is very different, and there are parallels drawn with attempting to establish veganism or vegetarianism as a religion, and where they could benefit from the recent decision in England and Wales. Finally, this paper concludes that ethical and environmental veganism and vegetarianism should both qualify as protected philosophical beliefs, but other kinds may fall short of what is required to satisfy the requirements under law.

scholarly journals Practical implications of naloxone knowledge among suburban people who use opioids

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Kristin E. Schneider ◽  
Glenna J. Urquhart ◽  
Saba Rouhani ◽  
Ju Nyeong Park ◽  
Miles Morris ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Health Department ◽  
Washington Dc ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Public Health Response ◽  
Baltimore City ◽  
The Public ◽  
Health Response ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Practical Implications

Abstract Background Naloxone distribution programs have been a cornerstone of the public health response to the overdose crisis in the USA. Yet people who use opioids (PWUO) continue to face a number of barriers accessing naloxone, including not knowing where it is available. Methods We used data from 173 PWUO from Anne Arundel County, Maryland, which is located between Baltimore City and Washington, DC. We assessed the prevalence of recently (past 6 months) receiving naloxone and currently having naloxone, the type(s) of the naloxone kits received, and the perceived ease/difficultly of accessing naloxone. We also assessed participants knowledge of where naloxone was available in the community. Results One third (35.7%) of participants had recently received naloxone. Most who had received naloxone received two doses (72.1%), nasal naloxone (86.9%), and education about naloxone use (72.1%). Most currently had naloxone in their possession (either on their person or at home; 78.7%). One third (34.4%) believed naloxone was difficult to obtain in their community. Only half (56.7%) knew of multiple locations where they could get naloxone. The health department was the most commonly identified naloxone source (58.0%). Identifying multiple sources of naloxone was associated with being more likely to perceive that naloxone is easy to access. Discussion Our results suggest that additional public health efforts are needed to make PWUO aware of the range of sources of naloxone in their communities in order to ensure easy and continued naloxone access to PWUO.

Accessible tourism: a bibliometric review (2008–2020)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Guanghui Qiao ◽  
Liu Ding ◽  
Linlin Zhang ◽  
Huili Yan
Keyword(s):  
English Language ◽  
Research Literature ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Sampling Frame ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
Knowledge Maps ◽  
Tourism Research ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Bibliometric Review

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to reveal the knowledge evolution process, research hotspots and future trends in the accessible tourism research literature from 2008 to 2020. Design/methodology/approach A total of 213 articles on accessible tourism were selected from the core collection database of Web of Science (WoS) and analyzed using CiteSpace. Findings Over the 13-year period between 2008 and 2020, an increasing number of studies have been published concerning accessible tourism, but the overall base is still small. The research content mainly includes six modules. Among institutions, the University of Technology Sydney has published the largest number of papers. Cooperation among countries involves the USA, the United Kingdom, Australia, Portugal and China. Tourism Management is the leading journal for disseminating research on accessible tourism. Definition of “Accessible tourism” and the different scope of this phenomenon are re-discussed. In recent years, “experience” and “participation” have become the “new favorites” in accessible tourism research, which could reveal insights into future research directions. Research limitations/implications The sampling frame was defined in terms of the WoS database and even though this is an important database for global academic information, in the big data era, the authors may have to integrate information from multiple sources to comprehensively reveal and understand knowledge maps. Second, because of the operational constraints of the CiteSpace software, the authors only selected outputs published in peer-reviewed journals, excluding other published works, such as books and conference papers. Finally, because of the language restrictions of the authors, this research is limited to journals published in the English language. Practical implications Practically, the results of this study made a conclusion of accessible tourism research so that the researchers can easily know what has currently been done and what future research can do. Tourism managers can also understand the demands and the constraints of tourism for the people who have barriers to travel. They can supply more specific products for the accessible tourism and further promote the construction of barrier-free travel environments. Originality/value This paper unifies the literature on senior tourism and people with disabilities tourism, and uses CiteSpace to construct data and network visualizations, including a burst and dynamic analysis for the period covered by the sample. Furthermore, this paper proposed a more diversified accessible tourism.

scholarly journals Enhancing resilience to coastal flooding from severe storms in the USA: international lessons

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (8) ◽  
pp. 1357-1373 ◽  
Author(s):  
Darren M. Lumbroso ◽  
Natalie R. Suckall ◽  
Robert J. Nicholls ◽  
Kathleen D. White
Keyword(s):  
Risk Reduction ◽  
Low Income ◽  
Disaster Risk Reduction ◽  
Grey Literature ◽  
Coastal Flooding ◽  
Disaster Risk ◽  
Coastal Hazards ◽  
Low Income Countries ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Order Of Magnitude

Abstract. Recent events in the USA have highlighted a lack of resilience in the coastal population to coastal flooding, especially amongst disadvantaged and isolated communities. Some low-income countries, such as Cuba and Bangladesh, have made significant progress towards transformed societies that are more resilient to the impacts of cyclones and coastal flooding. To understand how this has come about, a systematic review of the peer-reviewed and grey literature related to resilience of communities to coastal flooding was undertaken in both countries. In both Cuba and Bangladesh the trust between national and local authorities, community leaders and civil society is high. As a consequence evacuation warnings are generally followed and communities are well prepared. As a result over the past 25 years in Bangladesh the number of deaths directly related to cyclones and coastal flooding has decreased, despite an increase of almost 50 % in the number of people exposed to these hazards. In Cuba, over the course of eight hurricanes between 2003 and 2011, the normalized number of deaths related to cyclones and coastal floods was an order of magnitude less than in the USA. In low-income countries, warning systems and effective shelter/evacuation systems, combined with high levels of disaster risk-reduction education and social cohesion, coupled with trust between government authorities and vulnerable communities can help to increase resilience to coastal hazards and tropical cyclones. In the USA, transferable lessons include improving communication and the awareness of the risk posed by coastal surges, mainstreaming disaster risk reduction into the education system and building trusted community networks to help isolated and disadvantaged communities, and improve community resilience.

scholarly journals Three months of informational trends in COVID-19 across New York City

2020 ◽  
Vol 42 (3) ◽  
pp. 448-450
Author(s):  
Wil Lieberman-Cribbin ◽  
Naomi Alpert ◽  
Adam Gonzalez ◽  
Rebecca M Schwartz ◽  
Emanuela Taioli
Keyword(s):  
New York ◽  
New York City ◽  
York City ◽  
Information Seeking ◽  
New York State ◽  
Search Term ◽  
Multiple Sources ◽  
The Usa ◽  
Trend Data ◽  
Over Time

Abstract In the midst of widespread community transmission of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) in New York, residents have sought information about COVID-19. We analyzed trends in New York State (NYS) and New York City (NYC) data to quantify the extent of COVID-19-related queries. Data on the number of 311 calls in NYC, Google Trend data on the search term ‘Coronavirus’ and information about trends in COVID-19 cases in NYS and the USA were compiled from multiple sources. There were 1228 994 total calls to 311 between 22 January 2020 and 22 April 2020, with 50 845 calls specific to COVID-19 in the study period. The proportion of 311 calls related to COVID-19 increased over time, while the ‘interest over time’ of the search term ‘Coronavirus’ has exponentially increased since the end of February 2020. It is vital that public health officials provide clear and up-to-date information about protective measures and crucial communications to respond to information-seeking behavior across NYC.

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