scholarly journals This time is different: model-based evaluation of the implications of SARS-CoV-2 infection kinetics for disease control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kaitlyn E Johnson ◽  
Madison Stoddard ◽  
Ryan P Nolan ◽  
Douglas E White ◽  
Natasha Hochberg ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Control ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Testing Strategies ◽  
Health Strategy ◽  
Quantitative Understanding ◽  
Dependent Model ◽  
Primary Basis ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Kinetics Of

As the ongoing COVID-19 pandemic passes from an acute to a chronic situation, countries and territories are grappling with the issue of how to reopen safely. The unique kinetics of infectivity of SARS-CoV-2, with its significant presymptomatic transmission, presents an unprecedented challenge to our intuitions. In this context, a generalizable quantitative understanding of the impact of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity on disease control strategies is vital. We used a previously published time-dependent model of SARS-CoV-2 infectivity (He et al., 2020) to parameterize an epidemiological model of transmission, which was then used to explore the effect of various disease control measures. Our analysis suggests that using symptom-based isolation alone as a control strategy is ineffective in limiting the spread of COVID-19, in contrast to its effectiveness in other diseases, such as SARS and influenza. Additionally, timeliness of testing and tracing strategies to reduce time to isolation, along with widespread adoption of measures to limit transmission are critical for any containment strategy. Our findings suggest that for symptom-based isolation and testing strategies to be effective, reduced transmission is required, reinforcing the importance of measures to limit transmission. From a public health strategy perspective, our findings lend support to the idea that symptomatic isolation should not form the primary basis for COVID-19 disease control.

scholarly journals Modeling the Effects of Helminth Infection on the Transmission Dynamics of Mycobacterium tuberculosis under Optimal Control Strategies

2020 ◽  
Vol 2020 ◽  
pp. 1-21
Author(s):  
Aristide G. Lambura ◽  
Gasper G. Mwanga ◽  
Livingstone Luboobi ◽  
Dmitry Kuznetsov
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Equilibrium Point ◽  
Drug Administration ◽  
Mass Drug Administration ◽  
Helminth Infection ◽  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Active Tuberculosis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
The Impact

A deterministic mathematical model for the transmission and control of cointeraction of helminths and tuberculosis is presented, to examine the impact of helminth on tuberculosis and the effect of control strategies. The equilibrium point is established, and the effective reproduction number is computed. The disease-free equilibrium point is confirmed to be asymptotically stable whenever the effective reproduction number is less than the unit. The analysis of the effective reproduction number indicates that an increase in the helminth cases increases the tuberculosis cases, suggesting that the control of helminth infection has a positive impact on controlling the dynamics of tuberculosis. The possibility of bifurcation is investigated using the Center Manifold Theorem. Sensitivity analysis is performed to determine the effect of every parameter on the spread of the two diseases. The model is extended to incorporate control measures, and Pontryagin’s Maximum Principle is applied to derive the necessary conditions for optimal control. The optimal control problem is solved numerically by the iterative scheme by considering vaccination of infants for Mtb, treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis, mass drug administration with regular antihelminthic drugs, and sanitation control strategies. The results show that a combination of educational campaign, treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis, mass drug administration, and sanitation is the most effective strategy to control helminth-Mtb coinfection. Thus, to effectively control the helminth-Mtb coinfection, we suggest to public health stakeholders to apply intervention strategies that are aimed at controlling helminth infection and the combination of vaccination of infants and treatment of individuals with active tuberculosis.

scholarly journals The impact of contact structure on infectious disease control: influenza and antiviral agents

2007 ◽  
Vol 135 (7) ◽  
pp. 1124-1132 ◽  
Author(s):  
H.-P. DUERR ◽  
M. SCHWEHM ◽  
C. C. LEARY ◽  
S. J. De Vlas ◽  
M. EICHNER
Keyword(s):  
Disease Control ◽  
Contact Structure ◽  
Influenza Pandemic ◽  
Antiviral Treatment ◽  
Antiviral Agents ◽  
Emerging Infectious Diseases ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Variable Degree ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYPlanning adequate public health responses against emerging infectious diseases requires predictive tools to evaluate the impact of candidate intervention strategies. With current interest in pandemic influenza very high, modelling approaches have suggested antiviral treatment combined with targeted prophylaxis as an effective first-line intervention against an emerging influenza pandemic. To investigate how the effectiveness of such interventions depends on contact structure, we simulate the effects in networks with variable degree distributions. The infection attack rate can increase if the number of contacts per person is heterogeneous, implying the existence of high-degree individuals who are potential super-spreaders. The effectiveness of a socially targeted intervention suffers from heterogeneous contact patterns and depends on whether infection is predominantly transmitted to close or casual contacts. Our findings imply that the various contact networks' degree distributions as well as the allocation of contagiousness between close and casual contacts should be examined to identify appropriate strategies of disease control measures.

scholarly journals The African swine fever control zone in South Africa and its current relevance

2016 ◽  
Vol 83 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Noluvuyo R. Magadla ◽  
Wilna Vosloo ◽  
Livio Heath ◽  
Bruce Gummow
Keyword(s):  
South Africa ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
African Swine Fever ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Boundary Line ◽  
Control Line ◽  
Control Zone ◽  
Ornithodoros Moubata ◽  
The Impact

African swine fever (ASF) has been reported in South Africa since the early 20th century. The disease has been controlled and confined to northern South Africa over the past 80 years by means of a well-defined boundary line, with strict control measures and movement restrictions north of this line. In 2012, the first outbreak of ASF outside the ASF control zone since 1996 occurred. The objective of this study was to evaluate the current relevance of the ASF control line as a demarcation line between endemic ASF (north) areas and ASF-free (south) area and to determine whether there was a need to realign its trajectory, given the recent outbreaks of ASF, global climate changes and urban development since the line’s inception. A study of ASF determinants was conducted in an area 20 km north and 20 km south of the ASF control line, in Limpopo, Mpumalanga, North West and Gauteng provinces between May 2008 and September 2012. The study confirmed that warthogs, warthog burrows and the soft tick reservoir, Ornithodoros moubata, are present south of the ASF control line, but no virus or viral DNA was detected in these ticks. There appears to be an increasing trend in the diurnal maximum temperature and a decrease in humidity along the line, but the impact of these changes is uncertain. No discernible changes in minimum temperatures and average rainfall along the disease control line were observed between 1992 and 2014. Even though the reservoirs were found south of the ASF boundary line, the study concluded that there was no need to realign the trajectory of the ASF disease control line, with the exception of Limpopo Province. However, the provincial surveillance programmes for the reservoir, vector and ASF virus south of this line needs to be maintained and intensified as changing farming practices may favour the spread of ASF virus beyond the control line.Keywords: African swine fever; warthog burrow; Ornithodoros moubata;control line

scholarly journals Modeling the Impact of Optimal Control Strategies on the Dynamics of Zika Virus Disease Using the Sterile Insect Technology

2020 ◽  
pp. 13-33
Author(s):  
Atokolo William ◽  
Akpa Johnson ◽  
Daniel Musa Alih ◽  
Olayemi Kehinde Samuel ◽  
C. E. Mbah Godwin
Keyword(s):  
Optimal Control ◽  
Control Strategy ◽  
Zika Virus ◽  
Human Population ◽  
Necessary Conditions ◽  
Virus Disease ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Optimal Control Strategy ◽  
The Impact

This work is aimed at formulating a mathematical model for the control of zika virus infection using Sterile Insect Technology (SIT). The model is extended to incorporate optimal control strategy by introducing three control measures. The optimal control is aimed at minimizing the number of Exposed human, Infected human and the total number of Mosquitoes in a population and as such reducing contacts between mosquitoes and human, human to human and above all, eliminates the population of Mosquitoes. The Pontryagin’s maximum principle was used to obtain the necessary conditions, find the optimality system of our model and to obtain solution to the control problem. Numerical simulations result shows that; reduction in the number of Exposed human population, Infected human population and reduction in the entire population of Mosquito population is best achieved using the optimal control strategy.

scholarly journals Individually Optimal Choices can be Collectively Disastrous in COVID-19 Disease Control

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madison Stoddard ◽  
Debra Van Egeren ◽  
Kaitlyn Johnson ◽  
Smriti Rao ◽  
Josh Furgeson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Complete Suppression ◽  
Natural Immunity ◽  
Endemic Disease ◽  
Health Measures ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background: The word ‘pandemic’ conjures dystopian images of bodies stacked in the streets and societies on the brink of collapse. Despite this frightening picture, denialism and noncompliance with public health measures are common in the historical record, for example during the 1918 Influenza pandemic or the 2015 Ebola epidemic. The unique characteristics of SARS-CoV-2—its high basic reproduction number (R0), time-limited natural immunity and considerable potential for asymptomatic spread—exacerbate the public health repercussions of noncompliance with interventions (such as vaccines and masks) to limit disease transmission. Our work explores the rationality and impact of noncompliance with COVID-19 disease control measures. Methods: In this work, we used game theory to explore when noncompliance confers a perceived benefit to individuals. We then used epidemiological modeling to predict the impact of noncompliance on control of COVID-19, demonstrating that the presence of a noncompliant subpopulation prevents suppression of disease spread. Results: Our modeling demonstrating that noncompliance is a Nash equilibrium under a broad set of conditions, and that the existence of a noncompliant population can result in extensive endemic disease in the long-term after a return to pre-pandemic social and economic activity. Endemic disease poses a threat for both compliant and noncompliant individuals; all community members are protected if complete suppression is achieved, which is only possible with a high degree of compliance. For interventions that are highly effective at preventing disease spread, however, the consequences of noncompliance are borne disproportionately by noncompliant individuals. Conclusions: In sum, our work demonstrates the limits of free-market approaches to compliance with disease control measures during a pandemic. The act of noncompliance with disease intervention measures creates a negative externality, rendering COVID-19 disease control ineffective in the short term and making complete suppression impossible in the long term. Our work underscores the importance of developing effective strategies for prophylaxis through public health measures aimed at complete suppression and the need to focus on compliance at a population level.

MODELING CHOLERA TRANSMISSION UNDER DISEASE CONTROL MEASURES

2020 ◽  
pp. 1-26
Author(s):  
MARGARET BROWN ◽  
MIKO JIANG ◽  
CHAYU YANG ◽  
JIN WANG
Keyword(s):  
Disease Control ◽  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Dynamics ◽  
Threshold Dynamics ◽  
Education Programs ◽  
Multiple Control ◽  
Indirect Transmission ◽  
Transmission Pathways ◽  
The Impact

We present a new mathematical model to investigate the transmission dynamics of cholera under disease control measures that include education programs and water sanitation. The model incorporates the impact of education programs into the disease transmission rates and that of water sanitation into the environmental pathogen dynamics. We conduct a detailed analysis to the autonomous system of the model and establish the local and global stabilities of its equilibria that characterize the threshold dynamics of cholera. We then perform an optimal control study on the general model with time-dependent controls and explore effective approaches to implement the education programs and water sanitation while balancing their costs. Our analysis and simulation highlight the complex interaction among the direct and indirect transmission pathways of the disease, the intrinsic growth of the environmental pathogen and the impact of multiple control measures, and their roles in collectively shaping the transmission dynamics of cholera.

scholarly journals Research Approaches for Improved Pro-Poor Control of Zoonoses

2007 ◽  
Vol 28 (2_suppl2) ◽  
pp. S345-S356 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esther Schelling ◽  
Delia Grace ◽  
A. Lee Willingham ◽  
Tom Randolph
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Evidence Base ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Diagnostic Tools ◽  
Informal Markets ◽  
Zoonotic Infections ◽  
Livestock Sector ◽  
The Impact

Background Developing countries face difficulties in sustainably utilizing tools to effectively implement control measures for zoonoses. This is mainly due to dispersed and heterogeneous smallholder livestock systems, predominance of informal markets, poor infrastructure and lack of resources to deliver information, interventions, and regulations. In addition, developing countries lack an evidence base for planning and targeting control efforts. Zoonotic infections are receiving more and more international attention as diseases of neglected and impoverished communities, at the intersection between livestock production, human health, and poverty. Objective To review research innovations and trends that can help identify and test targeted control strategies for zoonoses tailored to poor communities, focusing particularly on Africa. Methods Review of recommendations of relevant working groups and scientific literature. Results New and innovative research approaches promise to better capture the impact of zoonoses from a societal perspective and the perspective of poor livestock owners through more comprehensive frameworks that consider benefits of the control of zoonoses to the public health, livestock, and private sectors. It is challenging to better assure food safety in informal markets. Risk-based approaches with participatory elements provide a framework in which stakeholders can decide an appropriate level of protection to balance the needs for safe food, cheap food, and pro-poor economic growth. Appropriate information for all stakeholders and capacity-building of national and regional authorities is an important element of this process. New diagnostic tools that are accurate and easily used in developing-country health centers and markets can assist in reporting of cases, detection of patients, and testing of control strategies. Conclusions A research agenda on zoonoses of the livestock sector should be interdisciplinary and participatory and include intersectoral collaborations, notably between the livestock and public health sectors.

The South America Tomato Leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), Spreads Its Wings in Eastern Africa: Distribution and Socioeconomic Impacts

2019 ◽  
Vol 112 (6) ◽  
pp. 2797-2807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Osa Aigbedion-Atalor ◽  
Martin P Hill ◽  
Myron P Zalucki ◽  
Francis Obala ◽  
Gamal E Idriss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Sustainable Livelihoods ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tuta Absoluta ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Tomato Production ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Following the arrival of Tuta absoluta Meyrick in the eastern African subregion in 2012, several studies have shown numerous ecological aspects of its invasion. We investigated the impact of T. absoluta on people’s livelihoods across four counties of Kenya. Here, 200 farmers in the country were interviewed in person using semistructured questionnaires. In addition to livelihood surveys, T. absoluta distribution was mapped between 2016 and 2018 to determine its current distribution across four countries (Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) in the subregion. Albeit a recent invader, T. absoluta is abundant and distributed throughout the subregion and is viewed as the worst invasive alien species of agriculturally sustainable livelihoods by tomato farmers. The arrival of T. absoluta in the subregion has resulted in livelihood losses and increased both the cost of tomato production and frequency of pesticide application. We recommend the implementation of biological control along, with other control measures in an integrated approach, against T. absoluta in the subregion, where its impact on sustainable livelihoods is serious and long-term control strategies are required to curb its detrimental effects.

Control of Simultaneous Outbreaks of Carbapenemase-Producing Enterobacteriaceae and Extensively Drug-ResistantAcinetobacter baumanniiInfection in an Intensive Care Unit Using Interventions Promoted in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention 2012 Carbapenemase-Resistant Enterobacteriaceae Toolkit

2014 ◽  
Vol 35 (7) ◽  
pp. 810-817 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kyle B. Enfield ◽  
Nujhat N. Huq ◽  
Megan F. Gosseling ◽  
Darla J. Low ◽  
Kevin C. Hazen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Intensive Care Unit ◽  
Intensive Care ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Disease Control ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Surgical Trauma ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Resistance Plasmids ◽  
Centers For Disease Control ◽  
The Impact

ObjectiveWe describe the efficacy of enhanced infection control measures, including those recommended in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s 2012 carbapenem-resistant Enterobacteriaceae (CRE) toolkit, to control concurrent outbreaks of carbapenemase-producing Enterobacteriaceae (CPE) and extensively drug-resistantAcinetobacter baumannii(XDR-AB).DesignBefore-after intervention study.SettingFifteen-bed surgical trauma intensive care unit (ICU).MethodsWe investigated the impact of enhanced infection control measures in response to clusters of CPE and XDR-AB infections in an ICU from April 2009 to March 2010. Polymerase chain reaction was used to detect the presence ofblaKPCand resistance plasmids in CRE. Pulsed-field gel electrophoresis was performed to assess XDR-AB clonality. Enhanced infection-control measures were implemented in response to ongoing transmission of CPE and a new outbreak of XDR-AB. Efficacy was evaluated by comparing the incidence rate (IR) of CPE and XDR-AB before and after the implementation of these measures.ResultsThe IR of CPE for the 12 months before the implementation of enhanced measures was 7.77 cases per 1,000 patient-days, whereas the IR of XDR-AB for the 3 months before implementation was 6.79 cases per 1,000 patient-days. All examined CPE shared endemicblaKPCresistance plasmids, and 6 of the 7 XDR-AB isolates were clonal. Following institution of enhanced infection control measures, the CPE IR decreased to 1.22 cases per 1,000 patient-days (P= .001), and no more cases of XDR-AB were identified.ConclusionsUse of infection control measures described in the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s 2012 CRE toolkit was associated with a reduction in the IR of CPE and an interruption in XDR-AB transmission.

scholarly journals Schistosoma transmission in a dynamic seasonal environment and its impact on the effectiveness of disease control

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qimin Huang ◽  
David Gurarie ◽  
Martial Ndeffo-Mbah ◽  
Emily Li ◽  
Charles H King
Keyword(s):  
Seasonal Variation ◽  
Intermediate Host ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Seasonal Effects ◽  
Effective Control ◽  
Optimal Timing ◽  
Snail Population ◽  
Dynamics And Control ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Background A seasonal transmission environment including seasonal variation of snail population density and human-snail contact patterns can affect the dynamics of Schistosoma infection and the success of control interventions. In projecting control outcomes, conventional modeling approaches have often ignored seasonality by using simplified intermediate-host modeling, or by restricting seasonal effects through use of yearly averaging. Methods We used mathematical analysis and numerical simulation to estimate the impact of seasonality on disease dynamics and control outcomes, and to evaluate whether seasonal averaging or intermediate-host reduction can provide reliable predictions of control outcomes. We also examined whether seasonality could be used as leverage in creation of effective control strategies. Results We found models that used seasonal averaging could grossly overestimate infection burden and underestimate control outcomes in highly seasonal environments. We showed that proper intra-seasonal timing of control measures could make marked improvement on the long-term burden reduction for Schistosoma transmission control, and we identified the optimal timing for each intervention. Seasonal snail control, implemented alone, was less effective than mass drug administration, but could provide additive impact in reaching control and elimination targets. Conclusion Seasonal variation makes Schistosoma transmission less sustainable and easier to control than predicted by earlier modeling studies.

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