scholarly journals Analysis and prediction of Covid-19 spreading through Bayesian modelling with a case study of Uttar Pradesh, India

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Deepmala ◽  
Nishant Kumar Srivastava ◽  
Vineet Kumar ◽  
Sanjay Kumar Singh
Keyword(s):  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Relevant Information ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Bayesian Modelling ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Bayesian Paradigm ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control

The pandemic of coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) started in Wuhan, China, and spread worldwide. In India, COVID-19 cases increased rapidly throughout India. Various measures like awareness program, social distancing, and contact tracing have been implemented to control the COVID-19 outbreak. In the absence of any vaccine, the prediction of the confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases is required to enhance the health care system's capacity and control the transmission. In this study, the cumulative and the daily confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases in Uttar Pradesh, India, were analyzed. We used the Logistic and Gompertz non-linear regression model using a Bayesian paradigm. We build the prior distribution of the model using information obtained from some other states of India, which are already reached at the advanced stage of COVID-19. Results from the analysis indicated that the predicted maximum number of confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases will be around 1157335, 5843, and 1145829. The daily number of confirmed, deceased, and recovered cases will be maximum at 104th day, 73rd day, and 124th day from 16 June 2020. Moreover, the COVID-19 will be over probably by early-June, 2021. The analysis did not consider any changes in government control measures. We hope this study can provide some relevant information to the government and health officials.

scholarly journals The First 100 Days of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome Coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Control in Vietnam

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pham Quang Thai ◽  
Maia A Rabaa ◽  
Duong Huy Luong ◽  
Dang Quang Tan ◽  
Tran Dai Quang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome ◽  
Mass Communication ◽  
Demographic Data ◽  
International Travel ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Population Mobility ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Early Introduction ◽  
The Government

Abstract Background One hundred days after severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in Vietnam on 23 January, 270 cases were confirmed, with no deaths. We describe the control measures used by the government and their relationship with imported and domestically acquired case numbers, with the aim of identifying the measures associated with successful SARS-CoV-2 control. Methods Clinical and demographic data on the first 270 SARS-CoV-2 infected cases and the timing and nature of government control measures, including numbers of tests and quarantined individuals, were analyzed. Apple and Google mobility data provided proxies for population movement. Serial intervals were calculated from 33 infector-infectee pairs and used to estimate the proportion of presymptomatic transmission events and time-varying reproduction numbers. Results A national lockdown was implemented between 1 and 22 April. Around 200 000 people were quarantined and 266 122 reverse transcription polymerase chain reaction (RT-PCR) tests conducted. Population mobility decreased progressively before lockdown. In total, 60% (163/270) of cases were imported; 43% (89/208) of resolved infections remained asymptomatic for the duration of infection. The serial interval was 3.24 days, and 27.5% (95% confidence interval [CI], 15.7%-40.0%) of transmissions occurred presymptomatically. Limited transmission amounted to a maximum reproduction number of 1.15 (95% CI, .·37–2.·36). No community transmission has been detected since 15 April. Conclusions Vietnam has controlled SARS-CoV-2 spread through the early introduction of mass communication, meticulous contact tracing with strict quarantine, and international travel restrictions. The value of these interventions is supported by the high proportion of asymptomatic and imported cases, and evidence for substantial presymptomatic transmission.

scholarly journals Analysis and prediction of the coronavirus disease epidemic in China based on an individual-based model

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Zuiyuan Guo ◽  
Dan Xiao
Keyword(s):  
Reproduction Number ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Cumulative Number ◽  
Individual Based Model ◽  
Whole Process ◽  
Coordinate Descent Algorithm ◽  
Initial Stage ◽  
The Government ◽  
Prevention And Control Measures ◽  
And Control

AbstractWe established a stochastic individual-based model and simulated the whole process of occurrence, development, and control of the coronavirus disease epidemic and the infectors and patients leaving Hubei Province before the traffic was closed in China. Additionally, the basic reproduction number (R0) and number of infectors and patients who left Hubei were estimated using the coordinate descent algorithm. The median R0 at the initial stage of the epidemic was 4.97 (95% confidence interval [CI] 4.82–5.17). Before the traffic lockdown was implemented in Hubei, 2000 (95% CI 1982–2030) infectors and patients had left Hubei and traveled throughout the country. The model estimated that if the government had taken prevention and control measures 1 day later, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in the whole country would have increased by 32.1%. If the lockdown of Hubei was imposed 1 day in advance, the cumulative number of laboratory-confirmed patients in other provinces would have decreased by 7.7%. The stochastic model could fit the officially issued data well and simulate the evolution process of the epidemic. The intervention measurements nationwide have effectively curbed the human-to-human transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2.

scholarly journals The Impact of COVID-19 on Pedestrian Flow Patterns in Urban POIs—An Example from Beijing

2021 ◽  
Vol 10 (7) ◽  
pp. 479
Author(s):  
Yihang Li ◽  
Liyan Xu
Keyword(s):  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Control Period ◽  
Flow Patterns ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Pedestrian Flow ◽  
Prevention Measures ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Functional Categories ◽  
And Control ◽  
The Impact

The COVID-19 pandemic is a major challenge for society as a whole, and analyzing the impact of the spread of the epidemic and government control measures on the travel patterns of urban residents can provide powerful help for city managers to designate top-level epidemic prevention policies and specific epidemic prevention measures. This study investigates whether it is more appropriate to use groups of POIs with similar pedestrian flow patterns as the unit of study rather than functional categories of POIs. In this study, we analyzed the hour-by-hour pedestrian flow data of key locations in Beijing before, during, and after the strict epidemic prevention and control period, and we found that the pedestrian flow patterns differed greatly in different periods by using a composite clustering index; we interpreted the clustering results from two perspectives: groups of pedestrian flow patterns and functional categories. The results show that depending on the specific stage of epidemic prevention and control, the number of unique pedestrian flow patterns decreased from four before the epidemic to two during the strict control stage and then increased to six during the initial resumption of work. The restrictions on movement are correlated with most of the visitations, and the release of restrictions led to an increase in the variety of unique pedestrian flow patterns compared to that in the pre-restriction period, even though the overall number of visitations decreased, indicating that social restrictions led to differences in the flow patterns of POIs and increased social distance.

Hong Kong’s response to COVID-19: a glance to the control measures and their enforcement

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ka Ki Lawrence Ho ◽  
Ying-Tung Chan
Keyword(s):  
Hong Kong ◽  
Infection Rate ◽  
Government Policy ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control ◽  
Viral Outbreak

Purpose This study aims to examine Hong Kong’s responses to COVID-19, arguing that Hong Kong’s relatively low infection rate is due to self-discipline of citizens together with the enforcement measures introduced by the government. Design/methodology/approach This study reviewed the government policy announcements and the prevailing scholarly analyses on Hong Kong society during COVID-19. Findings It starts by examining the partial lockdown and control measures since mid-January, and the roles of different government units in enforcement were examined and assessed. Suppression of viral outbreak in Hong Kong should primarily be attributed to the appropriate lockdown and quarantine actions of the government. Originality/value However, outperformance of the frontline professionals and the highly aware, self-disciplined and mutually aided citizens in the community are also the key to the “interim success” by June 2020 in the highly accessible and densely populated city.

scholarly journals COVID-19 in Sudan

2021 ◽  
Vol 15 (02) ◽  
pp. 204-208
Author(s):  
Ayman Ahmed ◽  
Nouh Saad Mohamed ◽  
Sarah Misbah EL-Sadig ◽  
Lamis Ahmed Fahal ◽  
Ziad Bakri Abelrahim ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Health Systems ◽  
Case Fatality Rate ◽  
Case Fatality ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Religious Practices ◽  
Mass Gathering ◽  
Fatality Rate ◽  
High Case Fatality Rate ◽  
The Government ◽  
And Control

The steadily growing COVID-19 pandemic is challenging health systems worldwide including Sudan. In Sudan, the first COVID-19 case was reported on 13th March 2020, and up to 11 November 2020 there were 14,401 confirmed cases of which 9,535 cases recovered and the rest 3,750 cases were under treatment. Additionally, 1,116 deaths were reported, indicating a relatively high case fatality rate of 7.7%. Several preventive and control measures were implemented by the government of Sudan and health partners, including the partial lockdown of the country, promoting social distancing, and suspending mass gathering such as festivals and performing religious practices in groups. However, new cases still emerging every day and this could be attributed to the noncompliance of the individuals to the advocated preventive measurements.

scholarly journals EKS TAPOL PKI DAN KONTROL PEMERINTAH: Studi pada Komunitas Tapol PKI Moncongloe Sulawesi Selatan (1979-2003)

2017 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 417
Author(s):  
Taufik Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Political Prisoners ◽  
Political Resistance ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Negative Image ◽  
Source Criticism ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Clean Environment ◽  
Economically Marginalized ◽  
The Government

AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan menjelaskan kontrol pemerintah dan politik resistensi tahanan politik Partai Komunis Indonesia (PKI) pasca pembebasan dengan mengambil kasus pada komunitas tahanan politik Moncongloe di Sulawesi Selatan. Metode yang dipergunakan adalah metode sejarah, dengan tahap; pengumpulan sumber (heuristik), kritik sumber mencakup kritik eksteren yang menyangkut otentisitas atau keabsahan sumber dan kritik interen yang menyangkut kredibilitas atau bisa tidaknya sumber dipercaya, interpretasi atau penafsiran atas data, dan yang terakhir adalah penyajian kisah sejarah atau historiografi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pasca pembebasan, persoalan komunitas tahanan politik Moncongloe tidak berakhir. Mereka dihadapkan pada kontrol pemerintah melalui perangkat konstitusi dan penjurusan negatif pada diri tahanan politik sebagai orang “tidak bersih lingkungan”. Akibatnya, melahirkan sebuah komunitas yang terpinggirkan dalam bidang sosial, politik dan ekonomi. Setelah reformasi, ruang perjuangan eks tahanan politik mulai terbuka lebar dengan berdirinya berbagai organisasi-organisasi yang memperjuangkan hak-hak mereka yang selama ini diabaikan oleh pemerintah.AbstractThis study aims to explain the control of the government and political resistance performed by post-released prisoners of Partai Komunis Indonesia (PKI). This is a case study of the Moncongloe community of political prisoners in South Sulawesi. The author conducted history method, covering heuristics (collecting sources), source criticism (including external criticism concerning the authenticity or validity of sources as well as internal criticism regarding the credibility of the sources, and interpretation of the data), and historiography (the presentation the story). The results showed that the issue of Moncongloe political prisoners has not come to an end even though they have already been released. The post-released prisoners are facing the government control through the constitution and negative image on political prisoners as not having "clean environment". As a result, they are socially, politically and economically marginalized. After the reform, they had a wide opportunity to struggle because there were many organizations established to fight for the rights of those who have been ignored by the government.

scholarly journals EKS TAPOL PKI DAN KONTROL PEMERINTAH: Studi pada Komunitas Tapol PKI Moncongloe Sulawesi Selatan (1979-2003)

2013 ◽  
Vol 5 (3) ◽  
pp. 417
Author(s):  
Taufik Ahmad
Keyword(s):  
Political Prisoners ◽  
Political Resistance ◽  
Government Control ◽  
Negative Image ◽  
Source Criticism ◽  
South Sulawesi ◽  
Clean Environment ◽  
Economically Marginalized ◽  
The Government

AbstrakPenelitian ini bertujuan menjelaskan kontrol pemerintah dan politik resistensi tahanan politik Partai Komunis Indonesia (PKI) pasca pembebasan dengan mengambil kasus pada komunitas tahanan politik Moncongloe di Sulawesi Selatan. Metode yang dipergunakan adalah metode sejarah, dengan tahap; pengumpulan sumber (heuristik), kritik sumber mencakup kritik eksteren yang menyangkut otentisitas atau keabsahan sumber dan kritik interen yang menyangkut kredibilitas atau bisa tidaknya sumber dipercaya, interpretasi atau penafsiran atas data, dan yang terakhir adalah penyajian kisah sejarah atau historiografi. Hasil penelitian menunjukkan bahwa pasca pembebasan, persoalan komunitas tahanan politik Moncongloe tidak berakhir. Mereka dihadapkan pada kontrol pemerintah melalui perangkat konstitusi dan penjurusan negatif pada diri tahanan politik sebagai orang “tidak bersih lingkungan”. Akibatnya, melahirkan sebuah komunitas yang terpinggirkan dalam bidang sosial, politik dan ekonomi. Setelah reformasi, ruang perjuangan eks tahanan politik mulai terbuka lebar dengan berdirinya berbagai organisasi-organisasi yang memperjuangkan hak-hak mereka yang selama ini diabaikan oleh pemerintah. AbstractThis study aims to explain the control of the government and political resistance performed by post-released prisoners of Partai Komunis Indonesia (PKI). This is a case study of the Moncongloe community of political prisoners in South Sulawesi. The author conducted history method, covering heuristics (collecting sources), source criticism (including external criticism concerning the authenticity or validity of sources as well as internal criticism regarding the credibility of the sources, and interpretation of the data), and historiography (the presentation the story). The results showed that the issue of Moncongloe political prisoners has not come to an end even though they have already been released. The post-released prisoners are facing the government control through the constitution and negative image on political prisoners as not having "clean environment". As a result, they are socially, politically and economically marginalized. After the reform, they had a wide opportunity to struggle because there were many organizations established to fight for the rights of those who have been ignored by the government.

scholarly journals COVID-19 prevention and control measures in workplace settings: a rapid review and meta-analysis

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carolyn Ingram ◽  
Vicky Downey ◽  
Mark Roe ◽  
Fionn Cléirigh Büttner ◽  
Yanbing Chen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Prevention And Control ◽  
Meta Analysis ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Rapid Review ◽  
Cochrane Library ◽  
Infection Prevention And Control ◽  
Post Intervention ◽  
And Control

Workplaces are high-risk environments for SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks and subsequent community transmission. Identifying, understanding, and implementing effective workplace SARS-CoV-2 infection prevention and control (IPC) measures is critical to protect workers, their families, and communities. A rapid review and meta-analysis were conducted to synthesize evidence assessing the effectiveness of COVID-19 IPC measures implemented in global workplace settings through April 2021. Medline, Embase, PubMed, and Cochrane Library were searched for studies that quantitatively assessed the effectiveness of workplace COVID-19 IPC measures. Included studies comprised varying empirical designs and occupational settings. Measures of interest included surveillance measures, outbreak investigations, personal protective equipment (PPE), changes in work arrangements, and worker education. Sixty-three studies from international healthcare, nursing home, meatpacking, manufacturing, and office settings were included, accounting for ~280,000 employees. Meta-analyses showed that combined measures (0.2% positivity; 95%CI 0-0.4%) were associated with lower post-intervention employee COVID-19 positivity estimates than single measures like asymptomatic PCR testing (1.7%; 95%CI 0.9-2.9%) and universal masking (24%; 95%CI 3.4-55.5%). Modelling studies showed that combinations of (i) timely and widespread contact tracing and case isolation, (ii) facilitating smaller worker cohorts, and (iii) effective use of PPE can reduce workplace transmission. Comprehensive COVID-19 IPC measures incorporating swift contact tracing and case isolation, PPE, and facility zoning, can effectively prevent workplace outbreaks. Masking alone should not be considered as sufficient protection from SARS-CoV-2 outbreaks in workplace environments at high risk of virus transmission.

scholarly journals Self Help Groups (SHGs) and Women’s Development: A Case Study of the Varanasi District

2015 ◽  
Vol 2 (4) ◽  
pp. 35 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tripti Kumari ◽  
Anand Prasad Mishra
Keyword(s):  
Uttar Pradesh ◽  
Women's Development ◽  
Indian Women ◽  
Self Help ◽  
Economically Deprived ◽  
Development Processes ◽  
The Government ◽  
Self Help Groups ◽  
The Impact

Development is a multi-dimensional process that affects society in multiple ways. It is well documented that women constitute about half of the world’s population but their share in the economy and other development spheres remain neglected. In addition, this large section of population (including Indian women) have been suffering from various disadvantages - lack of accessibility to resources, non-recognition of their economic contribution within the family and society. In order to resolve these emerging challenges, Government of India (GOI) has implemented various programmes and policies since Independence. Among these programmes, Self Help Groups (SHGs) may be considered as a significant initiative of the government as well as the non-governmental organisations (NGOs). These are based on the principle of democratic process of development. The democratic institution provides a platform to the socially and economically deprived sections and encourages them for economic participation. Since the 1970s, SHGs have been working in many states of India and contributing to the development processes. The present paper is an attempt to analyse the contribution of SHGs in women’s development in the district of Varanasi in Uttar Pradesh. The impact of these groups on women’s development has been analysed by Gender Development Index (GDI), which focused on the male-female differences in terms of longevity of life, knowledge and economic betterment.Key words: Development, Self Help Groups, Women in Development, Varanasi, India

scholarly journals Corona Contact Tracing Apps: Empirical Study on Self-Focused and Other-Focused Health Concerns as Predictors of App-Uptake (Preprint)

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Fenne große Deters ◽  
Tabea Meier ◽  
Anne Milek ◽  
Andrea B. Horn
Keyword(s):  
Odds Ratio ◽  
Demographic Variables ◽  
Contact Tracing ◽  
Curvilinear Relationship ◽  
Economic Activities ◽  
German Speaking ◽  
The Government ◽  
App Design ◽  
And Control

BACKGROUND Corona contact tracing apps are a novel and promising measure to reduce the spread of COVID-19. They can help to balance the need to maintain normal life and economic activities as much as possible while still avoiding exponentially growing case numbers. However, a majority of citizens needs to be willing to install such an app for it to be effective. Hence, knowledge about drivers for app-uptake is crucial. OBJECTIVE The present study aims to add to our understanding of underlying psychological factors motivating app-uptake. More specifically, we investigated the role of concern for one’s own health and concern to unknowingly infect others. METHODS A two-wave survey with N = 346 German-speaking participants from Switzerland and Germany was conducted. We measured the uptake of two decentralized contact tracing apps officially launched by governments (“Corona-Warn-App”, Germany; “SwissCovid”, Switzerland) as well as concerns regarding COVID-19 and control variables. RESULTS While controlling for demographic variables as well as general attitudes towards the government and the pandemic, logistic regression analysis showed a significant effect of self-focused concerns (Odds Ratio = 1.64, P <.01). Meanwhile, concern to unknowingly infect others did not contribute significantly to the prediction of app-uptake over and above concern for one’s own health (Odds Ratio = 1.01, P = .92). Longitudinal analyses replicated this pattern and showed no support for the possibility that app-uptake provokes changes in levels of concern. Testing for a curvilinear relationship, no evidence was found that “too much” concern leads to defensive reactions and reduces app-uptake. CONCLUSIONS As one of the first studies to assess the installation of already launched corona tracing apps, our study extends our knowledge of the motivational landscape of app-uptake. Based on that, practical implications for communication strategies and app design are discussed. CLINICALTRIAL

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