scholarly journals Optimal Allocation of Limited Test Resources for the Quantification of COVID-19 Infections

Author(s):  
Michail Chatzimanolakis ◽  
Pascal Weber ◽  
George Arampatzis ◽  
Daniel Wälchli ◽  
Ivica Kičić ◽  
...  

AbstractThe systematic identification of infected individuals is critical for the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. Presently, the spread of the disease is mostly quantified by the reported numbers of infections, hospitalizations, recoveries and deaths; these quantities inform epidemiology models that provide forecasts for the spread of the epidemic and guide policy making. The veracity of these forecasts depends on the discrepancy between the numbers of reported and unreported, yet infectious, individuals.We combine Bayesian experimental design with an epidemiology model and propose a methodology for the optimal allocation of limited testing resources in space and time, which maximizes the information gain for such unreported infections. The proposed approach is applicable at the onset and spreading of the epidemic and can forewarn for a possible recurrence of the disease after relaxation of interventions. We examine its application in Switzerland; the open source software is, however, readily adaptable to countries around the world.We find that following the proposed methodology can lead to vastly less uncertain predictions for the spread of the disease. Estimates of the effective reproduction number and of the future number of unreported infections are improved, which in turn can provide timely and systematic guidance for the effective identification of infectious individuals and for decision-making.

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michail Chatzimanolakis ◽  
Pascal Weber ◽  
Georgios Arampatzis ◽  
Daniel Wälchli ◽  
Petr Karnakov ◽  
...  

The systematic identification of infectious, yet unreported, individuals is critical for the containment of the COVID-19 pandemic. We present a strategy for identifying the location, timing and extent of testing that maximizes information gain for such infections. The optimal testing strategy relies on Bayesian experimental design and forecasting epidemic models that account for time dependent interventions. It is applicable at the onset and spreading of the epidemic and can forewarn for a possible recurrence of the disease after relaxation of interventions. We examine its application in Switzerland and show that it can provide timely and systematic guidance for the effective identification of infectious individuals with finite testing resources. The methodology and the open source code are readily adaptable to countries around the world.


2018 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Anubha Taneja Mukherjee

Decision making is an inherently complicated procedure, which by its very nature requires the decision-maker to co-opt all the stakeholders concerned. The procedure of decision-making may vary from country to country, depending on its size, culture, history and special demographic circumstances. Around the world, key decision-makers include the executive, the legislature and the judiciary. While the distribution of powers between these three may vary in tandem with their relation to each other, their roles remain the same. While the legislature enacts laws for its citizens, the executive, popularly known as the government, implements these laws and while doing so promulgates policies that are in alignment with the said laws. Mostly, the executive is also authorised to promulgate some laws of its own. The judiciary, on the other hand, comes into the picture when there is a dispute with regard to such laws. It also steps in on its own at times. While settling such disputes, the judiciary also ends up setting what we know as precedents, which also become a part of the legal fabric of a society. In a nutshell, these three are the key decision makers in any country. As mentioned above, while making decisions, these authorities are mostly required to co-opt all the stakeholders concerned, thereby making decision making a consultative process. These stakeholders include think tanks, research bodies, media and most importantly the affected party. The reason for having such a consultative procedure in place is that the decision makers are not experts in every subject or issue that comes their way. For instance, when a need to promulgate a national policy on thalassemia presents itself to a certain government, whether it be owing to media reportage or representations from the civil society, the decision makers will look towards people considered to be the experts in the subject to come forward and be a part of the policy making. One could say that this sounds like an ideal situation where the government actually invites people concerned with thalassemia to come forward and share views about it for the purpose of policy making. It is, however, true! It is as true for India as it is for any developed country. What we must ensure then is that the government or the decision maker considers us, the patients, as the experts. While it does sound obvious that those impacted with the disorder would be the ones with the first-hand knowledge about the disorder, the very fact that there is a topic in this conference on the role of patients in decision making speaks volumes about the distance that remains to be covered by the patients of thalassemia as far as participation in decision-making is concerned. With the massive strides in the field of medical science and the unflinching support of organisations like Thalassemia International Federation (TIF), we have now reached the stage where we must step out of the victim mode and represent ourselves before the decision-makers, whether by forming Patients Advocacy Groups or otherwise. One may take cue from various associations around the world. Global HD Organisations are a good example. They are known to have got together to give patients a voice in clinical research. The most popular strategy for reaching out to the decision makers is to unite, engage, and partner both in private meetings and consultative fora like events, task forces and projects. “Unite, Engage & Partner” can therefore be the most successful mantra for engaging with the decision makers. Talking of examples of advocacy and participation by patients, while there are numerous examples in Europe and North America of the power of patient advocacy so much so that patients are on the same level as doctors when it comes to voicing opinions in policy making, TIF on an international level has created since 2009 the Expert Patients Programme, and is now moving forward in giving patients a voice through its educational platform. Recently, India also launched its first Thalassemia Patients Advocacy Group (PAG) in the august presence of the Deputy Chief Minister of the capital of the country. The India PAG has seven patients from the fields of law, psychology, education and IT. The Group is already involved with the government on the formulation of the National Thalassemia Policy. This is a great start and this should give enough and more encouragement to thalassemics across the world to UNITE, ENGAGE AND PARTNER in the process that impacts them the most – decision-making!


Author(s):  
Gregory P. Loos

Globalization's profound influence on social and political institutions need not be negative. Critics of globalization have often referred to the “Impossible Trinity” because decision-making must 1. respect national sovereignty, 2. develop and implement firm regulation, and 3. allow capital markets to be as free as possible. To many, such goals are mutually exclusive because history conditions us to view policy-making and governance in traditional molds. Thus, transnational governance merely appears impossible because current forms of governance were not designed to provide it. The world needs new tools for governing, and its citizens must seize the opportunity to help develop them. The rise of a global society requires a greater level of generality and inclusion than is found in most policy bodies today. Politicians need to re-examine key assumptions about government. States must develop ways to discharge their regulatory responsibilities across borders and collaborate with neighboring jurisdictions, multilateral bodies, and business. Concepts such as multilateralism and tripartism show great promise. Governments must engage civil society in the spirit of shared responsibility and democratic decision-making. Such changes will result in a renewal of the state's purpose and better use of international resources and expertise in governance.


2018 ◽  
Vol III (I) ◽  
pp. 71-80
Author(s):  
Muhammad Zia-Ur Rehman ◽  
Zahid Bashir ◽  
Asia Baig

This study focuses on Economic turmoil due to issues of the Middle East and its relation to oil prices, hence transposing the crisis to other economies of the world. A qualitative and logical resigning technique is used during the study. The author finds that the Middle East has a lot of issues related to oil prices, oil production. Most important are wars and conflicts within the region, terrorism, radicalism, the influence of US in the region, week government, and issues of politics. This study provides information to the government in policy making, in investment decisions, in politics and in financial decision making related to oil prices and its production in the region


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alexandra Cortez ◽  
Pere-Pau Vázquez

Nowadays, public bicycle sharing systems have become popular and widespread across the world. Their usefulness largely depends on their ability to synchronize with citizens’ usage patterns and optimize re-balancing operations that must be carried out to reduce outages. Two crucial factors to tackle this problem are stations’ characteristics (geography, location, etc) and the availability of bikes and drop-off slots. Based on the requirements and input from regular users and experts in policy-making, system operation, and urban planning, we have created a web-based visualization system that facilitates the analysis of docking stations’ behavior. This system provides the first group with the availability prediction of both bike and free slots in docking stations to assist their planning. Besides, the system helps the second group understand patterns of usage and get deeper insights (e.g. need for resizing or complementary transportation systems) to facilitate decision-making and better fulfill the citizens’ needs. In a finalevaluation, both groups found it highly useful, effective, and better suited than other existent applications.


1978 ◽  
Vol 17 (01) ◽  
pp. 28-35
Author(s):  
F. T. De Dombal

This paper discusses medical diagnosis from the clinicians point of view. The aim of the paper is to identify areas where computer science and information science may be of help to the practising clinician. Collection of data, analysis, and decision-making are discussed in turn. Finally, some specific recommendations are made for further joint research on the basis of experience around the world to date.


Prospects ◽  
1988 ◽  
Vol 13 ◽  
pp. 181-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard P. Segal

“Technology Spurs Decentralization Across the Country.” So reads a 1984 New York Times article on real-estate trends in the United States. The contemporary revolution in information processing and transmittal now allows large businesses and other institutions to disperse their offices and other facilities across the country, even across the world, without loss of the policy- and decision-making abilities formerly requiring regular physical proximity. Thanks to computers, word processors, and the like, decentralization has become a fact of life in America and other highly technological societies.


2021 ◽  
pp. 239965442110025
Author(s):  
Claire Hancock

This paper questions the ‘seeing like a city’ vs. ‘seeing like a state’ opposition through a detailed discussion of urban politics in the city of Paris, France, a prime example of the ways in which the national remains a driving dimension of city life. This claim is examined by a consideration of the shortcomings of Paris’s recent and timid commitment local democracy, lacking recognition of the diversity of its citizens, and the ways in which the inclusion of more women in decision-making arenas has failed to advance the ‘feminization of politics’. A common factor in these defining features of the Hidalgo administration seems to be the prevalence of ‘femonationalism’ and its influence over municipal policy-making.


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