scholarly journals Impact of close interpersonal contact on COVID-19 incidence: evidence from one year of mobile device data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Forrest W. Crawford ◽  
Sydney A. Jones ◽  
Matthew Cartter ◽  
Samantha G. Dean ◽  
Joshua L. Warren ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Device ◽  
Close Contact ◽  
Population Level ◽  
First Year ◽  
Contact Rate ◽  
Interpersonal Contact ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Frequency Of Contact ◽  
One Year ◽  
Device Location

AbstractClose contact between people is the primary route for transmission of SARS-CoV-2, the virus that causes coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19). We sought to quantify interpersonal contact at the population-level by using anonymized mobile device geolocation data. We computed the frequency of contact (within six feet) between people in Connecticut during February 2020 – January 2021. Then we aggregated counts of contact events by area of residence to obtain an estimate of the total intensity of interpersonal contact experienced by residents of each town for each day. When incorporated into a susceptible-exposed-infective-removed (SEIR) model of COVID-19 transmission, the contact rate accurately predicted COVID-19 cases in Connecticut towns during the timespan. The pattern of contact rate in Connecticut explains the large initial wave of infections during March–April, the subsequent drop in cases during June–August, local outbreaks during August–September, broad statewide resurgence during September–December, and decline in January 2021. Contact rate data can help guide public health messaging campaigns to encourage social distancing and in the allocation of testing resources to detect or prevent emerging local outbreaks more quickly than traditional case investigation.One sentence summaryClose interpersonal contact measured using mobile device location data explains dynamics of COVID-19 transmission in Connecticut during the first year of the pandemic.

scholarly journals AN INTERACTIVE COVID-19 MOBILITY IMPACT AND SOCIAL DISTANCING ANALYSIS PLATFORM

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Sepehr Ghader ◽  
Michael L. Pack ◽  
Chenfeng Xiong ◽  
Aref Darzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Device ◽  
Research Team ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
Process Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Analysis Platform ◽  
Device Location

ABSTRACTThe research team has utilized privacy-protected mobile device location data, integrated with COVID-19 case data and census population data, to produce a COVID-19 impact analysis platform that can inform users about the effects of COVID-19 spread and government orders on mobility and social distancing. The platform is being updated daily, to continuously inform decision-makers about the impacts of COVID-19 on their communities using an interactive analytical tool. The research team has processed anonymized mobile device location data to identify trips and produced a set of variables including social distancing index, percentage of people staying at home, visits to work and non-work locations, out-of-town trips, and trip distance. The results are aggregated to county and state levels to protect privacy and scaled to the entire population of each county and state. The research team are making their data and findings, which are updated daily and go back to January 1, 2020, for benchmarking, available to the public in order to help public officials make informed decisions. This paper presents a summary of the platform and describes the methodology used to process data and produce the platform metrics.

scholarly journals Interactive COVID-19 Mobility Impact and Social Distancing Analysis Platform

2021 ◽  
pp. 036119812110438
Author(s):  
Lei Zhang ◽  
Aref Darzi ◽  
Sepehr Ghader ◽  
Michael L. Pack ◽  
Chenfeng Xiong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Device ◽  
Research Team ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Population Data ◽  
Public Officials ◽  
Process Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Analysis Platform ◽  
Device Location

The research team has utilized privacy-protected mobile device location data, integrated with COVID-19 case data and census population data, to produce a COVID-19 impact analysis platform that can inform users about the effects of COVID-19 spread and government orders on mobility and social distancing. The platform is being updated daily, to continuously inform decision-makers about the impacts of COVID-19 on their communities, using an interactive analytical tool. The research team has processed anonymized mobile device location data to identify trips and produced a set of variables, including social distancing index, percentage of people staying at home, visits to work and non-work locations, out-of-town trips, and trip distance. The results are aggregated to county and state levels to protect privacy, and scaled to the entire population of each county and state. The research team is making their data and findings, which are updated daily and go back to January 1, 2020, for benchmarking, available to the public to help public officials make informed decisions. This paper presents a summary of the platform and describes the methodology used to process data and produce the platform metrics.

scholarly journals A data-driven travel mode share estimation framework based on mobile device location data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mofeng Yang ◽  
Yixuan Pan ◽  
Aref Darzi ◽  
Sepehr Ghader ◽  
Chenfeng Xiong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Device ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Mode Share ◽  
Device Location

scholarly journals A Data-Driven Travel Mode Share Estimation Framework based on Mobile Device Location Data

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mofeng Yang ◽  
Yixuan Pan ◽  
Aref Darzi ◽  
Sepehr Ghader ◽  
Chenfeng Xiong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Mobile Device ◽  
Travel Behavior ◽  
Travel Demand ◽  
Ground Truth ◽  
Data Driven ◽  
Travel Mode ◽  
Location Data ◽  
Mode Share ◽  
Device Location ◽  
Ground Truth Information

Abstract Mobile device location data (MDLD) contains abundant travel behavior information to support travel demand analysis. Compared to traditional travel surveys, MDLD has larger spatiotemporal coverage of the population and its mobility. However, ground truth information such as trip origins and destinations, travel modes, and trip purposes are not included by default. Such important attributes must be imputed to maximize the usefulness of the data. This paper targets at studying the capability of MDLD on estimating travel mode share at aggregated levels. A data-driven framework is proposed to extract travel behavior information from MDLD. The proposed framework first identifies trip ends with a modified Spatiotemporal Density-based Spatial Clustering of Applications with Noise (ST-DBSCAN) algorithm. Then three types of features are extracted for each trip to impute travel modes using machine learning models. A labeled MDLD dataset with ground truth information is used to train the proposed models, resulting in a 95% recall rate in identifying trip ends and a 93% 10-fold cross-validation accuracy in imputing the five travel modes (drive, rail, bus, bike and walk) with a Random Forest (RF) classifier. The proposed framework is then applied to two large-scale MDLD datasets, covering the Baltimore-Washington metropolitan area and the United States, respectively. The estimated trip distance, trip time, trip rate distribution, and travel mode share are compared against travel surveys at different geographies. The results suggest that the proposed framework can be readily applied in different states and metropolitan regions with low cost in order to study multimodal travel demand, understand mobility trends, and support decision making.

AGE-RELATED FEATURES OF ANNUAL MORTALITY AND SURVIVAL OF PATIENTS WITH THYROID CANCER (C73) IN SAINT-PETERSBURG (POPULATION STUDY)

2021 ◽  
pp. 507-515
Author(s):  
В.М. Мерабишвили
Keyword(s):  
Thyroid Cancer ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Relative Survival ◽  
Population Level ◽  
First Year ◽  
Relative Survival Rate ◽  
Age Related ◽  
One Year ◽  
Objective Indicators

Ежегодно в России регистрируют более 13 тыс. (13 250 - 2018 г.) новых случаев рака щитовидной железы (РЩЖ), в Санкт-Петербурге - около 1 тыс. (975 - 2018 г.), 150 у мужчин и 825 у женщин. В России практически не проводят исследования по анализу выживаемости больных РЩЖ на популяционном уровне. Такие разработки проводятся нами с 1998 г. Было установлено, что уровень пятилетней наблюдаемой и относительной выживаемости больных РЩЖ в нашем городе был заметно ниже среднеевропейского (программа Eurocare-4). Планируется проанализировать динамику объективных показателей деятельности онкологической службы на основе базы данных популяционного ракового регистра СанктПетербурга. Установлено значительное снижение показателей погодичной летальности, летальности больных на 1-м году наблюдения, однолетней с 2000 по 2018 г., наблюдаемой выживаемости - с 74,7 до 97,5 %, пятилетней - с 71,2 до 76,2 %. Относительная выживаемость была на 1-5 % больше. Пятилетняя выживаемость больных РЩЖ младше 60 лет была заметно выше, чем у лиц 60 лет и старше (92,2 и 62,7 % соответственно). Учитывая низкий уровень летальности у больных РЩЖ, медиана выживаемости исчислена только для 2004 г., она составила 14,8 года. Every year in Russia, more than 13 thousand (13 250 - in 2018) new cases of thyroid cancer are registered, in St. Petersburg about 1 000 (975 - in 2018) (150 among men and 825 among women). In Russia, almost no studies are conducted to analyze the survival rate of patients with thyroid cancer at the population level. Such developments have been carried out by us since 1998. It was found that the level of 5-year observed and relative survival of patients with thyroid cancer in our city was significantly lower than the European average (Eurocare-4 program). It is planned to analyze the dynamics of objective indicators of the activity of the cancer service based on the database of the population cancer register of St. Petersburg. There was a significant improvement in the indicators of partial mortality, mortality of patients in the first year of follow-up, one-year survival from 2000 to 2018 from 74,7 to 97,5 %, and five-year survival from 71,2 to 76,2 %. The relative survival rate was 1-5 % higher. The five-year survival rate of patients with thyroid cancer was significantly higher among patients under 60 years of age than among those aged 60 years and older (92,2 and 62,7 %, respectively). Given the low mortality rate among patients with thyroid cancer, the median survival rate is calculated only for 2004. It was 14,8 years.

scholarly journals Cardiovascular risk factors associated with acute myocardial infarction and stroke in the MADIABETES cohort

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
M. A. Salinero-Fort ◽  
F. J. San Andrés-Rebollo ◽  
J. Cárdenas-Valladolid ◽  
M. Méndez-Bailón ◽  
R. M. Chico-Moraleja ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Atrial Fibrillation ◽  
Blood Pressure ◽  
Antihypertensive Drugs ◽  
Hdl Cholesterol ◽  
First Year ◽  
Backward Elimination ◽  
One Year ◽  
Time Varying Covariates

AbstractWe aimed to develop two models to estimate first AMI and stroke/TIA, respectively, in type 2 diabetes mellitus patients, by applying backward elimination to the following variables: age, sex, duration of diabetes, smoking, BMI, and use of antihyperglycemic drugs, statins, and aspirin. As time-varying covariates, we analyzed blood pressure, albuminuria, lipid profile, HbA1c, retinopathy, neuropathy, and atrial fibrillation (only in stroke/TIA model). Both models were stratified by antihypertensive drugs. We evaluated 2980 patients (52.8% women; 67.3 ± 11.2 years) with 24,159 person-years of follow-up. We recorded 114 cases of AMI and 185 cases of stroke/TIA. The factors that were independently associated with first AMI were age (≥ 75 years vs. < 75 years) (p = 0.019), higher HbA1c (> 64 mmol/mol vs. < 53 mmol/mol) (p = 0.003), HDL-cholesterol (0.90–1.81 mmol/L vs. < 0.90 mmol/L) (p = 0.002), and diastolic blood pressure (65–85 mmHg vs. < 65 mmHg) (p < 0.001). The factors that were independently associated with first stroke/TIA were age (≥ 75 years vs. < 60 years) (p < 0.001), atrial fibrillation (first year after the diagnosis vs. more than one year) (p = 0.001), glomerular filtration rate (per each 15 mL/min/1.73 m2 decrease) (p < 0.001), total cholesterol (3.88–6.46 mmol/L vs. < 3.88 mmol/L) (p < 0.001), triglycerides (per each increment of 1.13 mmol/L) (p = 0.031), albuminuria (p < 0.001), neuropathy (p = 0.01), and retinopathy (p = 0.023).

scholarly journals Mortality in older adults following a fragility fracture: real-world retrospective matched-cohort study in Ontario

2021 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jacques P. Brown ◽  
Jonathan D. Adachi ◽  
Emil Schemitsch ◽  
Jean-Eric Tarride ◽  
Vivien Brown ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cohort Study ◽  
Hip Fracture ◽  
Fragility Fracture ◽  
Mortality Risk ◽  
Real World ◽  
First Year ◽  
Matched Cohort ◽  
Matched Cohort Study ◽  
Fracture Cohort ◽  
One Year

Abstract Background Recent studies are lacking reports on mortality after non-hip fractures in adults aged > 65. Methods This retrospective, matched-cohort study used de-identified health services data from the publicly funded healthcare system in Ontario, Canada, contained in the ICES Data Repository. Patients aged 66 years and older with an index fragility fracture occurring at any osteoporotic site between 2011 and 2015 were identified from acute hospital admissions, emergency and ambulatory care using International Classification of Diseases (ICD)-10 codes and data were analyzed until 2017. Thus, follow-up ranged from 2 years to 6 years. Patients were excluded if they presented with an index fracture occurring at a non-osteoporotic fracture site, their index fracture was associated with a trauma code, or they experienced a previous fracture within 5 years prior to their index fracture. This fracture cohort was matched 1:1 to controls within a non-fracture cohort by date, sex, age, geography and comorbidities. All-cause mortality risk was assessed. Results The survival probability for up to 6 years post-fracture was significantly reduced for the fracture cohort vs matched non-fracture controls (p < 0.0001; n = 101,773 per cohort), with the sharpest decline occurring within the first-year post-fracture. Crude relative risk of mortality (95% confidence interval) within 1-year post-fracture was 2.47 (2.38–2.56) in women and 3.22 (3.06–3.40) in men. In the fracture vs non-fracture cohort, the absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at any site was 12.5% vs 5.1% in women and 19.5% vs 6.0% in men. The absolute mortality risk within one year after a fragility fracture occurring at a non-hip vs hip site was 9.4% vs 21.5% in women and 14.4% vs 32.3% in men. Conclusions In this real-world cohort aged > 65 years, a fragility fracture occurring at any site was associated with reduced survival for up to 6 years post-fracture. The greatest reduction in survival occurred within the first-year post-fracture, where mortality risk more than doubled and deaths were observed in 1 in 11 women and 1 in 7 men following a non-hip fracture and in 1 in 5 women and 1 in 3 men following a hip fracture.

scholarly journals Across the COVID-19 Waves; Assessing Temporal Fluctuations in Perceived Stress, Post-Traumatic Symptoms, Worry, Anxiety and Civic Moral Disengagement over One Year of Pandemic

2021 ◽  
Vol 18 (11) ◽  
pp. 5651
Author(s):  
Alessio Gori ◽  
Eleonora Topino
Keyword(s):  
Perceived Stress ◽  
State Anxiety ◽  
Moral Disengagement ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Well Being ◽  
First Year ◽  
Effective Interventions ◽  
Post Traumatic ◽  
One Year ◽  
Traumatic Symptoms

This study aimed at investigating the psychological effect of the COVID-19 pandemic in Italy by analysing the trends of perceived stress, post-traumatic symptoms, state anxiety, worry, and civic moral disengagement in four different moments from March 2020 to March 2021. The study involved a total of 1827 Italian participants (30% men and 70% women; Mage = 34.72; SD = 12.40) divided into four groups to which an online survey was administered. The first group completed the survey in March 2020, the second one in August 2020, the third one in November 2020, and the fourth one in March 2021. Results highlighted significant decreases in post-traumatic symptoms and a significant increase in civic moral disengagement over the first year of the COVID-19 pandemic. The levels of perceived stress, worry, and state anxiety remained constant. The correlations between the variables at different times were also explored, as well as gender differences over the year. The COVID-19 emergency has had significant effects on the mental state of the population, with important repercussions for individual and collective well-being during but probably also after the pandemic. This study offers a clear snapshot of the psychological outcomes over one COVID-19 pandemic year, providing important information that may contribute to tailor more effective interventions for mental health.

Teething Symptoms in the First Year of Life and Associated Factors: A Cohort Study

2010 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 201-206 ◽  
Author(s):  
Carlos Alberto Feldens ◽  
Italo Medeiros Faraco Junior ◽  
Andréia Bertani Ottoni ◽  
Eliane Gerson Feldens ◽  
Márcia Regina Vítolo
Keyword(s):  
Associated Factors ◽  
Primary Outcome ◽  
First Year ◽  
Structured Interviews ◽  
Self Medication ◽  
Nuclear Families ◽  
Dental Examination ◽  
Pediatric Dentists ◽  
One Year ◽  
First Year Of Life

Objective: To investigate the occurrence and management of teething symptoms during the first year of life and associated factors. Study design: 500 children were recruited at birth. Research assessments including structured interviews, anthropometric measurements and dental examination were carried out after birth, at 6 months and at one-year of age. The primary outcome of this study was defined as the occurrence of one or more teething symptoms within the first year of life, as reported by the mother. Results: Teething symptoms were reported in 73% of the children analyzed (273/375). The symptoms most frequently reported were irritability (40.5%), fever (38.9%), diarrhoea (36.0%) and itching (33.6%). Dentists had little influence on the management of symptoms and self-medication to relieve them was a common practice. The risk of reporting teething symptoms was higher for children from nuclear families (p=0.040) and for children from families with higher income (p=0.040). Conclusions: Teething symptoms were highly reported in this population. Pediatric dentists should be accessible and provide adequate orientation when symptoms can be managed at home or immediate referral to health services when more serious diseases are suspected.

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