scholarly journals The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gastrointestinal infection trends in England, February - July 2020

Author(s):  
Nicola K Love ◽  
Alex J Elliot ◽  
Rachel Chalmers ◽  
Amy Douglas ◽  
Saheer Gharbia ◽  
...  

Objective: To establish the impact of the first six months of the COVID-19 outbreak response of gastrointestinal (GI) infection trends in England. Design: Retrospective ecological study using routinely collected national and regional surveillance data from eight Public Health England coordinated laboratory, outbreak and syndromic surveillance systems using key dates of UK governmental policy change to assign phases for comparison between 2020 and historic data. Results: Decreases in GI illness activity were observed across all surveillance indicators as COVID-19 cases began to peak. Compared to the 5-year average (2015-2019), during the first six months of the COVD-19 response, there was a 52% decrease in GI outbreaks reported (1,544 vs. 3,208 (95% CI: 2,938 - 3,478) and a 34% decrease in laboratory confirmed cases (27,859 vs. 42,495 (95% CI: 40,068 - 44,922). GI indicators began to rise during the first lockdown and lockdown easing, although all remained substantially lower than historic figures. Reductions in laboratory confirmed cases were observed across all age groups and both sexes, with geographical heterogeneity observed in diagnosis trends. Health seeking behaviour changed substantially, with attendances decreasing prior to lockdown across all indicators. Conclusions: There has been a marked change in trends of GI infections in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The drivers of this change are likely to be multifactorial; while changes in health seeking behaviour, pressure on diagnostic services and surveillance system ascertainment have undoubtably played a role there has likely been a true decrease in the incidence for some pathogens resulting from the control measures and restrictions implemented. This suggests that if some of these changes in behaviour such as improved hand hygiene were maintained, then we could potentially see sustained reductions in the burden of GI illness.

2018 ◽  
Vol 146 (16) ◽  
pp. 2059-2065 ◽  
Author(s):  
A. R. R. Freitas ◽  
P. M. Alarcón-Elbal ◽  
M. R. Donalisio

AbstractIn some chikungunya epidemics, deaths are not completely captured by traditional surveillance systems, which record case and death reports. We evaluated excess deaths associated with the 2014 chikungunya virus (CHIKV) epidemic in Guadeloupe and Martinique, Antilles. Population (784 097 inhabitants) and mortality data, estimated by sex and age, were accessed from the Institut National de la Statistique et des Études Économiques in France. Epidemiological data, cases, hospitalisations and deaths on CHIKV were obtained from the official epidemiological reports of the Cellule de Institut de Veille Sanitaire in France. Excess deaths were calculated as the difference between the expected and observed deaths for all age groups for each month in 2014 and 2015, considering the upper limit of 99% confidence interval. The Pearson correlation coefficient showed a strong correlation between monthly excess deaths and reported cases of chikungunya (R= 0.81,p< 0.005) and with a 1-month lag (R= 0.87,p< 0.001); and a strong correlation was also observed between monthly rates of hospitalisation for CHIKV and excess deaths with a delay of 1 month (R= 0.87,p< 0.0005). The peak of the epidemic occurred in the month with the highest mortality, returning to normal soon after the end of the CHIKV epidemic. There were excess deaths in almost all age groups, and excess mortality rate was higher among the elderly but was similar between male and female individuals. The overall mortality estimated in the current study (639 deaths) was about four times greater than that obtained through death declarations (160 deaths). Although the aetiological diagnosis of all deaths associated with CHIKV infection is not always possible, already well-known statistical tools can contribute to the evaluation of the impact of CHIKV on mortality and morbidity in the different age groups.


2007 ◽  
Vol 136 (8) ◽  
pp. 1035-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.-C. CHEN ◽  
C.-M. LIAO

SUMMARYWe coupled the Wells–Riley equation and the susceptible–exposed–infected–recovery (SEIR) model to quantify the impact of the combination of indoor air-based control measures of enhanced ventilation and respiratory masking in containing pandemic influenza within an elementary school. We integrated indoor environmental factors of a real elementary school and aetiological characteristics of influenza to estimate the age-specific risk of infection (P) and basic reproduction number (R0). We combined the enhanced ventilation rates of 0·5, 1, 1·5, and 2/h and respiratory masking with 60%, 70%, 80%, and 95% efficacies, respectively, to predict the reducing level of R0. We also took into account the critical vaccination coverage rate among schoolchildren. Age-specific P and R0 were estimated respectively to be 0·29 and 16·90; 0·56 and 16·11; 0·59 and 12·88; 0·64 and 16·09; and 0·07 and 2·80 for five age groups 4–6, 7–8, 9–10, 11–12, and 25–45 years, indicating pre-schoolchildren have the highest transmission potential. We conclude that our integrated approach, employing the mechanism of transmission of indoor respiratory infection, population-dynamic transmission model, and the impact of infectious control programmes, is a powerful tool for risk profiling prediction of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Efi Mantzourani ◽  
Rebecca Cannings-John ◽  
Andrew Evans ◽  
Haroon Ahmed ◽  
Alan Meudell ◽  
...  

Abstract Background : A pilot of the first NHS funded Sore Throat Test and Treat (STTT) service in the United Kingdom began in selected community pharmacies in Wales in November 2018. The aim of this research was to explore whether a pharmacist delivering consultation for sore throat that included clinical scoring and point-of-care testing was acceptable to patients, and how this might influence future health-seeking behaviour for subsequent sore-throats. Methods : Quantitative research was employed, with a non-experimental design using a survey research tool including a mix of closed and open questions, developed in collaboration with members of the public. The patient experience survey was distributed to all patients who had completed a consultation between November 2018 and May 2019. Data from completed surveys were entered in Jisc Online Surveys® and exported to Excel® for descriptive statistics. Free-text comments were analysed using content and inductive thematic analysis. Results : A total of 510 surveys were received from 2,839 sore throat consultations (response rate 18%). Overall, 501 patients (98%) were satisfied with the service. Patients’ confidence in managing their condition and service satisfaction was not dependent on having been supplied antibiotics. A total of 343 patients (67%) requested a GP appointment but were offered to a consultation in the pharmacy. After the service, 504 patients (99%) stated that they would return to the pharmacy for subsequent sore throat symptoms. Inductive analysis of free-text comments (n=242) revealed 3 themes: convenience and accessibility; professionalism of pharmacy team; and perceived value of the service. Conclusions : Results confirmed high levels of patient satisfaction with the new service, the way it was delivered and the increased choice of options for sore throat symptom management it offered. Whilst this research can only discuss patients’ reported future behaviour, the patient-reported stated intentions signify a potential shift in health-seeking behaviour towards a pharmacist-led service. This has important implications in supporting the long term plan of the governments in Wales and England to redirect management of uncomplicated conditions from GPs to pharmacies.


2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hwee Mian Jane Tan ◽  
Mui Suan Tan ◽  
Zi Ying Chang ◽  
Kee Tung Tan ◽  
Guan Liang Adrian Ee ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic led to the implementation of various non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPI) as the Singapore government escalated containment efforts from DORSCON Orange to Circuit Breaker. NPI include mandatory mask wearing, hand hygiene, social distancing, and closure of schools and workplaces. Considering the similar mode of transmission of COVID-19 and other pathogens related to acute respiratory infections (ARI), the effects of NPI could possibly lead to decreased ARI attendances in the community. This study aims to determine the year-on-year and weekly changes of ARI attendances across a cluster of polyclinics following the implementation of NPI. Methods The effect of the nation-wide measures on the health-seeking behaviour of the study population was examined over three periods: (1) 9 weeks prior to the start of Circuit Breaker (DORSCON Orange period), (2) 8 weeks during the Circuit Breaker, and (3) 9 weeks after easing of Circuit Breaker. Data on ARI attendances for the corresponding periods in 2019 were also extracted for comparison and to assess the seasonal variations of ARI. The average weekly workday ARI attendances were compared with those of the preceding week using Wilcoxon signed rank test. Results ARI attendances dropped steadily throughout the study period and were 50–80% lower than in 2019 since Circuit Breaker. They remained low even after Circuit Breaker ended. Positivity rate for influenza-like illnesses samples in the community was 0.0% from the last week of Circuit Breaker to end of study period. Conclusions NPI and public education measures during DORSCON Orange and Circuit Breaker periods appear to be associated with the health-seeking behaviour of the public. Changing levels of perceived susceptibility, severity, benefits and barriers, and widespread visual cues based on the Health Belief Model may account for this change. Understanding the impact of NPI and shifts in the public’s health-seeking behaviour will be relevant and helpful in the planning of future pandemic responses.


2017 ◽  
Vol 41 ◽  
pp. 1
Author(s):  
Lucia Helena De Oliveira ◽  
Barbara Jauregui ◽  
Ana Flavia Carvalho ◽  
Norberto Giglio

Objectives.To summarize and critically evaluate the evidence on the impact and effectiveness of meningococcal vaccination programs around the world in order to inform decisionmaking in Latin America and the Caribbean.Methods.A review of the literature was conducted following several components of the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Reviews and Meta-Analyses guidelines. PubMed Central® was searched for papers published in any language from January 1999 – March 2017.Results.In all, 32 studies were included, most of which evaluated the meningococcal C conjugate vaccine. Fourteen studies measured effectiveness and 30 measured impact. The effectiveness of polysaccharide vaccines was 65% – 83.7% (different age groups), while the effectiveness of the conjugate vaccines was 66% – 100%. Incidence decline of laboratory-confirmed meningococcal disease for the conjugate vaccine ranged from 77% – 100% among different ages groups. The only study that evaluated the protein subunit vaccine reported a vaccine effectiveness of 82.9%.Conclusions.The studies reviewed show impact and effectiveness of both polysaccharide vaccines and conjugate vaccines on vaccine-serogroup meningococcal disease. The conjugate vaccines, however, show higher impact and effectiveness with longer-lasting protection over the polysaccharide vaccines. Given the variance in potential use of a meningococcal vaccine, epidemiological surveillance systems should be strengthened to inform national decisions.


Author(s):  
Ruth C. Kirinyet ◽  
Arthur S. Ng’etich ◽  
Ahmad Juma

The most important factor in reducing the impact of an epidemic is a timely response with implementation of effective control measures at the point of detection. This study sought to assess the malaria reporting and epidemic preparedness systems of health facilities in Eldoret West District, Kenya. A crosssectional study design was adapted. A census technique was used to select all the forty five health facilities in the district comprising of government, mission and non-governmental facilities. An interviewer administered questionnaire was used for data collection and analysis done using Stata. Categorical variables were summarized as frequencies and corresponding percentages. The overall reporting rate was 91.7% for all the health facilities. Only 15 health facilities (33%) plotted malaria trend lines for number of cases of malaria. Malaria epidemics were reported within 24 hours in 22 health facilities but they lacked the appropriate supplies to respond to confirmed cases or epidemics. The overall malaria reporting completeness rate was above 90% implying that the malaria surveillance system was generally good. Concerted efforts by concerned stakeholders should ensure improvement of malaria epidemic preparedness system in all health facilities and provision of information to health personnel on malaria outbreak response strategies.


2017 ◽  
Vol 22 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Nastassya L Chandra ◽  
Kate Soldan ◽  
Ciara Dangerfield ◽  
Bersabeh Sile ◽  
Stephen Duffell ◽  
...  

To inform mathematical modelling of the impact of chlamydia screening in England since 2000, a complete picture of chlamydia testing is needed. Monitoring and surveillance systems evolved between 2000 and 2012. Since 2012, data on publicly funded chlamydia tests and diagnoses have been collected nationally. However, gaps exist for earlier years. We collated available data on chlamydia testing and diagnosis rates among 15–44-year-olds by sex and age group for 2000–2012. Where data were unavailable, we applied data- and evidence-based assumptions to construct plausible minimum and maximum estimates and set bounds on uncertainty. There was a large range between estimates in years when datasets were less comprehensive (2000–2008); smaller ranges were seen hereafter. In 15–19-year-old women in 2000, the estimated diagnosis rate ranged between 891 and 2,489 diagnoses per 100,000 persons. Testing and diagnosis rates increased between 2000 and 2012 in women and men across all age groups using minimum or maximum estimates, with greatest increases seen among 15–24-year-olds. Our dataset can be used to parameterise and validate mathematical models and serve as a reference dataset to which trends in chlamydia-related complications can be compared. Our analysis highlights the complexities of combining monitoring and surveillance datasets.


2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (3) ◽  
pp. 136-148
Author(s):  
Justice Ofori Amoah

Given the nodality of Kumasi, the city attracts migrants from all parts of Ghana into its market space. Notable among such migrants are the female head porters popularly called “Kayayie”. As a result of the expensive rents in urban space, female head porters live in kiosks, verandas, and squatters in any available space. This exposes the porters to a myriad of environmental and health risks amidst poor health-seeking behaviour. This study sought to examine access to health and health-seeking behaviour of female head porters in Kumasi. The study adopted quantitative methods in collecting and analyzing data. The primary units of the investigation were female head porters. The study used a sample size of 250 respondents who were interviewed through self-administered questionnaires. Findings show that only 25.2% of the respondents had access to healthcare, as about 74.8% lacked access to basic healthcare. The majority of those who had access to healthcare (54%) go to the health facility by foot, while about 42.9% access the facility by car. Though 71.4% of the head porters were subscribers of NHIS, only 25.2% resort to professional healthcare givers when they are sick. Generally, access to health and health-seeking was poor among the female head porters. The study recommended the expansion of health facilities, especially in poor urban communities, and education on health-seeking among head porters. Keywords: Female head porters, Health seeking behaviour, Health conditions, Migration; Urban poor.


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Siobhan Johnstone ◽  
Nicola Page ◽  
Shabir Madhi ◽  
Portia Mutevedzi ◽  
Nellie Myburgh ◽  
...  

Abstract Background In South Africa, there are limited data on the burden of diarrhoea at a community level, specifically in older children and adults. This community survey estimated rates of and risk factors for diarrhoea across all ages and determined the proportion of cases presenting to healthcare facilities. Methods Randomly sampled households were enrolled from an existing urban health and demographic surveillance site. A household representative was interviewed to determine risk factors and occurrence of diarrhoea in the household, for all household members, in the past two weeks (including symptoms and health seeking behaviour). Diarrhoeal rate of any severity was calculated for <5 years, 5-15 years and >15 years age groups. Risk factors for diarrhoea and factors associated with health seeking behaviour were investigated using binomial logistic regression. Results Diarrhoeal rate among respondents (2.5 episodes/person-year (95%CI, 1.8-3.5)) was significantly higher than for other household members (1.0 episodes/person-year (95%CI, 0.8-1.4); IRR=2.4 (95%CI, 1.5-3.7) p<0.001). Diarrhoeal rate was not significantly different between age groups, however younger children (<5 years) were more likely to present to healthcare facilities (OR=5.86 (95%CI, 1.09-31.37), p=0.039). Having a child between 5-15 years in the household was associated with diarrhoea (OR=2.26 (95% CI, 1.32-3.86), p=0.003). While 26.4% of cases sought healthcare, only 4.6% of cases were hospitalised and only 3.4% of cases had a stool specimen collected. Conclusion Diarrhoeal rate was high across all age groups in this community; however, older children and adults were less likely to present to healthcare, and are therefore underrepresented through facility-based clinical surveillance.


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