scholarly journals Modelling control measures to reduce the impact of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren

2007 ◽  
Vol 136 (8) ◽  
pp. 1035-1045 ◽  
Author(s):  
S.-C. CHEN ◽  
C.-M. LIAO
Keyword(s):  
Elementary School ◽  
Pandemic Influenza ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Vaccination Coverage Rate ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYWe coupled the Wells–Riley equation and the susceptible–exposed–infected–recovery (SEIR) model to quantify the impact of the combination of indoor air-based control measures of enhanced ventilation and respiratory masking in containing pandemic influenza within an elementary school. We integrated indoor environmental factors of a real elementary school and aetiological characteristics of influenza to estimate the age-specific risk of infection (P) and basic reproduction number (R0). We combined the enhanced ventilation rates of 0·5, 1, 1·5, and 2/h and respiratory masking with 60%, 70%, 80%, and 95% efficacies, respectively, to predict the reducing level of R0. We also took into account the critical vaccination coverage rate among schoolchildren. Age-specific P and R0 were estimated respectively to be 0·29 and 16·90; 0·56 and 16·11; 0·59 and 12·88; 0·64 and 16·09; and 0·07 and 2·80 for five age groups 4–6, 7–8, 9–10, 11–12, and 25–45 years, indicating pre-schoolchildren have the highest transmission potential. We conclude that our integrated approach, employing the mechanism of transmission of indoor respiratory infection, population-dynamic transmission model, and the impact of infectious control programmes, is a powerful tool for risk profiling prediction of pandemic influenza among schoolchildren.

scholarly journals High COVID-19 transmission potential associated with re-opening universities can be mitigated with layered interventions

2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Hannah Christensen ◽  
Adam Trickey ◽  
Gibran Hemani ◽  
Emily Nixon ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prediction Interval ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Model Parameters ◽  
Infection Rates ◽  
First Year Students ◽  
Transmission Potential ◽  
Plausible Model ◽  
Effective Option

AbstractControlling COVID-19 transmission in universities poses challenges due to the complex social networks and potential for asymptomatic spread. We developed a stochastic transmission model based on realistic mixing patterns and evaluated alternative mitigation strategies. We predict, for plausible model parameters, that if asymptomatic cases are half as infectious as symptomatic cases, then 15% (98% Prediction Interval: 6–35%) of students could be infected during the first term without additional control measures. First year students are the main drivers of transmission with the highest infection rates, largely due to communal residences. In isolation, reducing face-to-face teaching is the most effective intervention considered, however layering multiple interventions could reduce infection rates by 75%. Fortnightly or more frequent mass testing is required to impact transmission and was not the most effective option considered. Our findings suggest that additional outbreak control measures should be considered for university settings.

scholarly journals Vaccinating Adolescents and Children Significantly Reduces COVID-19 Morbidity and Mortality across All Ages: A Popula-Tion-Based Modeling Study Using the UK as an Example

Vaccines ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (10) ◽  
pp. 1180
Author(s):  
Tinevimbo Shiri ◽  
Marc Evans ◽  
Carla A. Talarico ◽  
Angharad R. Morgan ◽  
Maaz Mussad ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Disease Transmission ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Population Level ◽  
Vital Role ◽  
Morbidity And Mortality ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Global Public Health ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Debate persists around the risk–benefit balance of vaccinating adolescents and children against COVID-19. Central to this debate is quantifying the contribution of adolescents and children to the transmission of SARS-CoV-2, and the potential impact of vaccinating these age groups. In this study, we present a novel SEIR mathematical disease transmission model that quantifies the impact of different vaccination strategies on population-level SARS-CoV-2 infections and clinical outcomes. The model employs both age- and time-dependent social mixing patterns to capture the impact of changes in restrictions. The model was used to assess the impact of vaccinating adolescents and children on the natural history of the COVID-19 pandemic across all age groups, using the UK as an example. The base case model demonstrates significant increases in COVID-19 disease burden in the UK following a relaxation of restrictions, if vaccines are limited to those ≥18 years and vulnerable adolescents (≥12 years). Including adolescents and children in the vaccination program could reduce overall COVID-related mortality by 57%, and reduce cases of long COVID by 75%. This study demonstrates that vaccinating adolescents and children has the potential to play a vital role in reducing SARS-CoV-2 infections, and subsequent COVID-19 morbidity and mortality, across all ages. Our results have major global public health implications and provide valuable information to inform a potential pandemic exit strategy.

scholarly journals Community perception of malaria in a vulnerable municipality in the Colombian Pacific

2020 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Carol Yovanna Rosero ◽  
Gloria Isabel Jaramillo ◽  
Franco Andrés Montenegro ◽  
César García ◽  
Arelis Alexandra Coral
Keyword(s):  
Health Services ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Community Perception ◽  
Persistent Problem ◽  
Attitudes And Practices ◽  
Department Of Health ◽  
Mosquito Nets ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Colombian Pacific

Abstract Background Malaria primarily affects populations living in poor socioeconomic conditions, with limited access to basic services, deteriorating environmental conditions, and barriers to accessing health services. Control programmes are designed without participation from the communities involved, ignoring local knowledge and sociopolitical and cultural dynamics surrounding their main health problems, which implies imposing decontextualized control measures that reduce coverage and the impact of interventions. The objective of this study was to determine the community perception of malaria in the municipality of Olaya Herrera in the Colombian Pacific. Methods A 41-question survey on knowledge, attitudes, and practices (KAP) related to malaria, the perception of actions by the Department of Health, and access to the health services network was conducted. Results A total of 134 adults were surveyed, in whose households a total of 671 people lived. According to the survey data, about 80% of the household members included teenagers and children, out of which 61% had malaria at one time, and for 75.3%, this disease is a persistent problem. In spite of this, 57.2% of people who fell ill due to malaria were never visited by health personnel for a follow up. This population claimed that responsibility for who should prevent the disease is shared between each person and the Department of Health. However, personal actions were focused on using mosquito nets, ignoring other important practices to prevent bites. Despite campaigns by the Department of Health, 11.9% of respondents did not know how malaria was transmitted, and 8.96% thought it was transmitted through water. Also, 43.5% said that the Department of Health did not do any work to control malaria and 16% did not know if any action was taken. Conclusions In spite of the knowledge about malaria and the efforts of the Department of Health to prevent it, the community actions do not seem to be consistent with this knowledge, as the number of cases of malaria is still high in the area.

scholarly journals The impact of an integrated approach to science and literacy in elementary school classrooms

2012 ◽  
Vol 49 (5) ◽  
pp. 631-658 ◽  
Author(s):  
Gina N. Cervetti ◽  
Jacqueline Barber ◽  
Rena Dorph ◽  
P. David Pearson ◽  
Pete G. Goldschmidt
Keyword(s):  
Elementary School ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
The Impact

The impact of farmer and veterinary surgeon concordance on the effectiveness of a lameness control programme for primiparous dairy heifers

2007 ◽  
Vol 2007 ◽  
pp. 194-194
Author(s):  
N.J. Bell ◽  
M.J. Bell ◽  
T.G. Knowles ◽  
A.J.F. Webster
Keyword(s):  
Decision Making ◽  
Control Programme ◽  
Complex Interaction ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Detailed Understanding ◽  
Dairy Heifers ◽  
Control Programmes ◽  
Veterinary Surgeon ◽  
Foot Lesions ◽  
The Impact

Lameness in dairy cattle is a multifactorial problem involving a complex interaction of stockperson, environmental and animal-related hazards. With over 100 potential hazards for lameness, and a multiplicity of control measures arising from each of these hazards, decision making for intervention programmes can be complex. Furthermore, control of foot lesions such as digital dermatitis and claw horn disease may require a detailed understanding of veterinary pathogenesis and epidemiology. Therefore, in order for lameness control programmes to be effective, veterinary involvement may be necessary. This paper examines effect of vet and farmer attitude towards a lameness control programme for primiparous dairy heifers on lameness prevalence.

Transmission and control in an institutional pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak

2011 ◽  
Vol 140 (6) ◽  
pp. 1102-1110 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. ARINAMINPATHY ◽  
N. RAPHAELY ◽  
L. SALDANA ◽  
C. HODGEKISS ◽  
J. DANDRIDGE ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
High Risk ◽  
Infection Control ◽  
Pandemic Influenza ◽  
Summer School ◽  
Influenza A ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Infection Control Measures ◽  
Influenza A H1n1 ◽  
Hygiene Measures ◽  
The Impact

SUMMARYA pandemic influenza A(H1N1) 2009 outbreak in a summer school affected 117/276 (42%) students. Residential social contact was associated with risk of infection, and there was no evidence for transmission associated with the classroom setting. Although the summer school had new admissions each week, which provided susceptible students the outbreak was controlled using routine infection control measures (isolation of cases, basic hygiene measures and avoidance of particularly high-risk social events) and prompt treatment of cases. This was in the absence of chemoprophylaxis or vaccination and without altering the basic educational activities of the school. Modelling of the outbreak allowed estimation of the impact of interventions on transmission. These models and follow-up surveillance supported the effectiveness of routine infection control measures to stop the spread of influenza even in this high-risk setting for transmission.

scholarly journals A simulation study on the relative role of age groups under differing pertussis transmission scenarios

2018 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ana I. Bento ◽  
Aaron A. King ◽  
Pejman Rohani
Keyword(s):  
Herd Immunity ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Relative Role ◽  
Older Individuals ◽  
Age Cohorts ◽  
Relative Risks ◽  
Transmission Mechanisms ◽  
Acellular Vaccines ◽  
The Impact

AbstractPertussis has resurged in many countries where it was once regarded as under control, with the recent outbreaks showing a shift in incidence towards teens and older individuals. Here, using an age-stratified transmission model, we tested two potential causes for underlying changes in pertussis transmission dynamics. We did so assuming hypothesized mechanisms supporting present-day pertussis epidemiology: (I) improved diagnostics, (II) acellular vaccines leading to asymptomatic transmission (III) both. We used the relative risks and odds ratio methods to examine the impact of these differing assumptions on signatures of relative roles of key age groups through time, allowing us to explore those age cohorts that disproportionately account for transmission. Our findings show that for epidemics after the vaccine switch, a scenario with increased adult reporting and no asymptomatic transmission reflect a loss of signal, where no age group appears to be key. While scenarios with asymptomatic transmission, reflect a population where children (1-10 years old) are still disproportionally at risk. These results demonstrate that understanding the underlying transmission mechanisms in a population are paramount for vaccination policies in attaining herd immunity and eventually eradication.

scholarly journals The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on gastrointestinal infection trends in England, February - July 2020

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nicola K Love ◽  
Alex J Elliot ◽  
Rachel Chalmers ◽  
Amy Douglas ◽  
Saheer Gharbia ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Age Groups ◽  
Marked Change ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Surveillance Systems ◽  
Health Seeking Behaviour ◽  
Outbreak Response ◽  
Health Seeking ◽  
Historic Data ◽  
Gi Infections ◽  
The Impact

Objective: To establish the impact of the first six months of the COVID-19 outbreak response of gastrointestinal (GI) infection trends in England. Design: Retrospective ecological study using routinely collected national and regional surveillance data from eight Public Health England coordinated laboratory, outbreak and syndromic surveillance systems using key dates of UK governmental policy change to assign phases for comparison between 2020 and historic data. Results: Decreases in GI illness activity were observed across all surveillance indicators as COVID-19 cases began to peak. Compared to the 5-year average (2015-2019), during the first six months of the COVD-19 response, there was a 52% decrease in GI outbreaks reported (1,544 vs. 3,208 (95% CI: 2,938 - 3,478) and a 34% decrease in laboratory confirmed cases (27,859 vs. 42,495 (95% CI: 40,068 - 44,922). GI indicators began to rise during the first lockdown and lockdown easing, although all remained substantially lower than historic figures. Reductions in laboratory confirmed cases were observed across all age groups and both sexes, with geographical heterogeneity observed in diagnosis trends. Health seeking behaviour changed substantially, with attendances decreasing prior to lockdown across all indicators. Conclusions: There has been a marked change in trends of GI infections in the context of the COVID-19 pandemic. The drivers of this change are likely to be multifactorial; while changes in health seeking behaviour, pressure on diagnostic services and surveillance system ascertainment have undoubtably played a role there has likely been a true decrease in the incidence for some pathogens resulting from the control measures and restrictions implemented. This suggests that if some of these changes in behaviour such as improved hand hygiene were maintained, then we could potentially see sustained reductions in the burden of GI illness.

scholarly journals Predictions of COVID-19 dynamics in the UK: Short-term forecasting and analysis of potential exit strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
pp. e1008619
Author(s):  
Matt J. Keeling ◽  
Edward M. Hill ◽  
Erin E. Gorsich ◽  
Bridget Penman ◽  
Glen Guyver-Fletcher ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Care ◽  
Health Service ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Bed Occupancy ◽  
Time Data ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Number Of Patients ◽  
The Uk ◽  
The Impact

Efforts to suppress transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in the UK have seen non-pharmaceutical interventions being invoked. The most severe measures to date include all restaurants, pubs and cafes being ordered to close on 20th March, followed by a “stay at home” order on the 23rd March and the closure of all non-essential retail outlets for an indefinite period. Government agencies are presently analysing how best to develop an exit strategy from these measures and to determine how the epidemic may progress once measures are lifted. Mathematical models are currently providing short and long term forecasts regarding the future course of the COVID-19 outbreak in the UK to support evidence-based policymaking. We present a deterministic, age-structured transmission model that uses real-time data on confirmed cases requiring hospital care and mortality to provide up-to-date predictions on epidemic spread in ten regions of the UK. The model captures a range of age-dependent heterogeneities, reduced transmission from asymptomatic infections and produces a good fit to the key epidemic features over time. We simulated a suite of scenarios to assess the impact of differing approaches to relaxing social distancing measures from 7th May 2020 on the estimated number of patients requiring inpatient and critical care treatment, and deaths. With regard to future epidemic outcomes, we investigated the impact of reducing compliance, ongoing shielding of elder age groups, reapplying stringent social distancing measures using region based triggers and the role of asymptomatic transmission. We find that significant relaxation of social distancing measures from 7th May onwards can lead to a rapid resurgence of COVID-19 disease and the health system being quickly overwhelmed by a sizeable, second epidemic wave. In all considered age-shielding based strategies, we projected serious demand on critical care resources during the course of the pandemic. The reintroduction and release of strict measures on a regional basis, based on ICU bed occupancy, results in a long epidemic tail, until the second half of 2021, but ensures that the health service is protected by reintroducing social distancing measures for all individuals in a region when required. Our work confirms the effectiveness of stringent non-pharmaceutical measures in March 2020 to suppress the epidemic. It also provides strong evidence to support the need for a cautious, measured approach to relaxation of lockdown measures, to protect the most vulnerable members of society and support the health service through subduing demand on hospital beds, in particular bed occupancy in intensive care units.

The South America Tomato Leafminer, Tuta absoluta (Lepidoptera: Gelechiidae), Spreads Its Wings in Eastern Africa: Distribution and Socioeconomic Impacts

2019 ◽  
Vol 112 (6) ◽  
pp. 2797-2807 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pascal Osa Aigbedion-Atalor ◽  
Martin P Hill ◽  
Myron P Zalucki ◽  
Francis Obala ◽  
Gamal E Idriss ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Control Strategies ◽  
Sustainable Livelihoods ◽  
Integrated Approach ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Tuta Absoluta ◽  
Eastern Africa ◽  
Socioeconomic Impacts ◽  
Tomato Production ◽  
The Cost ◽  
The Impact

Abstract Following the arrival of Tuta absoluta Meyrick in the eastern African subregion in 2012, several studies have shown numerous ecological aspects of its invasion. We investigated the impact of T. absoluta on people’s livelihoods across four counties of Kenya. Here, 200 farmers in the country were interviewed in person using semistructured questionnaires. In addition to livelihood surveys, T. absoluta distribution was mapped between 2016 and 2018 to determine its current distribution across four countries (Kenya, Sudan, Tanzania, and Uganda) in the subregion. Albeit a recent invader, T. absoluta is abundant and distributed throughout the subregion and is viewed as the worst invasive alien species of agriculturally sustainable livelihoods by tomato farmers. The arrival of T. absoluta in the subregion has resulted in livelihood losses and increased both the cost of tomato production and frequency of pesticide application. We recommend the implementation of biological control along, with other control measures in an integrated approach, against T. absoluta in the subregion, where its impact on sustainable livelihoods is serious and long-term control strategies are required to curb its detrimental effects.

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