scholarly journals Estimating data-driven COVID-19 mitigation strategies for safe university reopening

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Qihui Yang ◽  
Don M. Gruenbacher ◽  
Caterina M. Scoglio
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Events ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
University Population ◽  
The University ◽  
University Settings ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractAfter one pandemic year of remote or hybrid instructional modes, universities in the United States are now planning for an in-person fall semester in 2021. However, it is uncertain what the vaccination rate will look like after students, faculty, and staff return to campus. To help inform university-reopening policies, we collected survey data on social contact patterns and developed an agent-based model to simulate the spread of COVID-19 in university settings. In this paper, we aim to identify the immunity threshold that, if exceeded, would lead to a relatively safe on-campus experience for the university population. With relaxed non-pharmaceutical interventions, we estimated that immunity in at least 60% of the university population is needed for safe university reopening. Still, attention needs to be paid to extreme events that could lead to huge infection size spikes. At an immune level of 60%, continuing non-pharmaceutical interventions, such as wearing masks, could lead to an 89% reduction in the maximum cumulative infection, which reflects the possible non-negligible infection size from extreme events.

Quantifying the Shift in Social Contact Patterns in Response to Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Zachary McCarthy ◽  
Yanyu Xiao ◽  
Francesca Scarabel ◽  
Biao Tang ◽  
Nicola Luigi Bragazzi ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Social Contact ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

scholarly journals Assessing Age-Specific Vaccination Strategies and Post-Vaccination Reopening Policies for COVID-19 Control Using SEIR Modeling Approach

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xia Wang ◽  
Hulin Wu ◽  
Sanyi Tang
Keyword(s):  
Age Structure ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
The Elderly ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Post Vaccination ◽  
Vaccination Strategies ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Effect Of Age

AbstractBackgroundAs the availability of COVID-19 vaccines, it is badly needed to develop vaccination guidelines to prioritize the vaccination delivery in order to effectively stop COVID-19 epidemic and minimize the loss.MethodsWe evaluated the effect of age-specific vaccination strategies on the number of infections and deaths using an SEIR model, considering the age structure and social contact patterns for different age groups for each of different countries.ResultsIn general, the vaccination priority should be given to those younger people who are active in social contacts to minimize the number of infections; while the vaccination priority should be given to the elderly to minimize the number of deaths. But this principle may not always apply when the interaction of age structure and age-specific social contact patterns is complicated. Partially reopening schools, workplaces or households, the vaccination priority may need to be adjusted accordingly.ConclusionsPrematurely reopening social contacts could initiate a new outbreak or even a new pandemic out of control if the vaccination rate and the detection rate are not high enough. Our result suggests that it requires at least nine months of vaccination before fully reopening social contacts in order to avoid a new pandemic.

scholarly journals Non-pharmaceutical interventions and inoculation rate shape SARS-COV-2 vaccination campaign success

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Marta Galanti ◽  
Sen Pei ◽  
Teresa K. Yamana ◽  
Frederick J. Angulo ◽  
Apostolos Charos ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
The United States ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Vaccine Administration ◽  
Number Of Factors ◽  
Uptake Rates ◽  
One Year ◽  
Inference Methods ◽  
Vaccination Campaigns ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractNearly one year into the COVID-19 pandemic, the first SARS-COV-2 vaccines received emergency use authorization and vaccination campaigns began. A number of factors can reduce the averted burden of cases and deaths due to vaccination. Here, we use a dynamic model, parametrized with Bayesian inference methods, to assess the effects of non-pharmaceutical interventions, and vaccine administration and uptake rates on infections and deaths averted in the United States. We estimate that high compliance with non-pharmaceutical interventions could avert more than 60% of infections and 70% of deaths during the period of vaccine administration, and that increasing the vaccination rate from 5 to 11 million people per week could increase the averted burden by more than one third. These findings underscore the importance of maintaining non-pharmaceutical interventions and increasing vaccine administration rates.

The Healthy DiplomaTM and Healthy Titans: Two Innovative Campus Programs for Progressive Student, Profession, and Community Outcomes

2016 ◽  
Vol 5 (4) ◽  
pp. 269-275
Author(s):  
Lisa Hicks ◽  
Dan Schmidt
Keyword(s):  
Healthy Lifestyle ◽  
Well Being ◽  
Practical Experience ◽  
The United States ◽  
Health And Wellness ◽  
Entry Level ◽  
University Of Wisconsin ◽  
Community Outcomes ◽  
The University ◽  
University Settings

There is a tremendous need for wellness programming at all university levels as well as the United States as a whole. Healthy lifestyles benefit the workplace through lower healthcare costs, lower rates of injury and absenteeism, higher productivity, and improved morale and retention. This paper describes two innovative programs in higher education, the Healthy DiplomaTM and Healthy Titans, which are designed to improve the health and well-being of both students and employees. Two universities addressed the health and wellness of students (Healthy DiplomaTM) and employees (Healthy Titans) by utilizing the strengths of their respective kinesiology department students and faculty members. The Healthy DiplomaTM program was designed to lead university students to a healthy lifestyle while enhancing their postgraduation contributions as healthy entry-level employees. The Healthy Titans program was designed to provide University of Wisconsin Oshkosh employees and their families an affordable fitness program with an onsite clinical setting for kinesiology students to gain practical experience with fitness programming. Students were provided the opportunity to gain personal health and wellness skills and competencies, and practice their future profession in an applied, yet highly-supervised setting. Practitioners were provided current research and best profession practices. These two programs at two different universities further illustrate both the practicality and advantages of faculty and student collaborations for campus-wide wellness. Programs addressing wellness at the university level have demonstrated appropriateness as well as benefits for students, employees, and community members, and suggest expansion of similar programs to other university settings.

scholarly journals Non-Pharmaceutical Interventions and COVID-19 Burden in the United States

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael J. Ahlers ◽  
Hilary J. Aralis ◽  
Wilson L. Tang ◽  
Jeremy B. Sussman ◽  
Gregg C. Fonarow ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Generalized Linear Models ◽  
Linear Models ◽  
Relative Effectiveness ◽  
State Level ◽  
The United States ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Mortality Data ◽  
The U.S ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions ◽  
At Home

ABSTRACTBackgroundNon-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) are mitigation strategies used to reduce the spread of transmissible diseases. The relative effectiveness of specific NPIs remains uncertain.MethodsWe used state-level Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) case and mortality data between January 19, 2020 and March 7, 2021 to model NPI policy effectiveness. Empirically derived breakpoints in case and mortality velocities were used to identify periods of stable, decreasing, or increasing COVID-19 burden. The associations between NPI adoption and subsequent decreases in case or death velocities were estimated using generalized linear models accounting for weekly variability shared across states. State-level NPI policies included: stay at home order, indoor public gathering ban (mild >10 or severe ≤10), indoor restaurant dining ban, and public mask mandate.Results28,602,830 cases and 511,899 deaths were recorded. The odds of a decrease in COVID-19 case velocity were significantly elevated for stay at home (OR 2.02, 95% CI 1.63-2.52), indoor dining ban (OR 1.62, 95% CI 1.25-2.10), public mask mandate (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.47-3.23), and severe gathering ban (OR 1.68, 95% CI 1.31-2.16). In mutually adjusted models, odds remained elevated for stay at home (AOR 1.47, 95% CI 1.04-2.07) and public mask mandate (AOR = 2.27, 95% CI 1.51-3.41). Stay at home (OR 2.00, 95% CI 1.53-2.62; AOR 1.89, 95% CI 1.25-2.87) was also associated with greater likelihood of decrease in death velocity in unadjusted and adjusted models.ConclusionsNPIs employed in the U.S. during the COVID-19 pandemic, most significantly stay at home orders, were associated with decreased COVID-19 burden.

scholarly journals The population attributable fraction of cases due to gatherings and groups with relevance to COVID-19 mitigation strategies

2021 ◽  
Vol 376 (1829) ◽  
pp. 20200273
Author(s):  
Ellen Brooks-Pollock ◽  
Jonathan M. Read ◽  
Thomas House ◽  
Graham F. Medley ◽  
Matt J. Keeling ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Population Attributable Fraction ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Attributable Fraction ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
Mass Gatherings ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Contact Behaviour ◽  
Epidemiological Impact ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Relative Change

Many countries have banned groups and gatherings as part of their response to the pandemic caused by the coronavirus, SARS-CoV-2. Although there are outbreak reports involving mass gatherings, the contribution to overall transmission is unknown. We used data from a survey of social contact behaviour that specifically asked about contact with groups to estimate the population attributable fraction (PAF) due to groups as the relative change in the basic reproduction number when groups are prevented. Groups of 50+ individuals accounted for 0.5% of reported contact events, and we estimate that the PAF due to groups of 50+ people is 5.4% (95% confidence interval 1.4%, 11.5%). The PAF due to groups of 20+ people is 18.9% (12.7%, 25.7%) and the PAF due to groups of 10+ is 25.2% (19.4%, 31.4%). Under normal circumstances with pre-COVID-19 contact patterns, large groups of individuals have a relatively small epidemiological impact; small- and medium-sized groups between 10 and 50 people have a larger impact on an epidemic. This article is part of the theme issue ‘Modelling that shaped the early COVID-19 pandemic response in the UK’.

scholarly journals Social contact patterns among employees in 3 U.S. companies during early phases of the COVID-19 pandemic, April to June 2020

2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Moses C. Kiti ◽  
Obianuju G. Aguolu ◽  
Carol Y. Liu ◽  
Ana R. Mesa ◽  
Rachel Regina ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Race And Ethnicity ◽  
Control Strategies ◽  
Age Groups ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Median Number ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
The Uk ◽  
Spread Of Infection

2.AbstractImportanceDevising control strategies against diseases such as COVID-19 require understanding of contextual social mixing and contact patterns. There has been no standardized multi-site social contact study conducted in workplace settings in the United States that can be used to broadly inform pandemic preparedness policy in these settings.ObjectiveThe study aimed to characterize the patterns of social contacts and mixing across workplace environments, including on-site or when teleworking.DesignThis was a cross-sectional non-probability survey that used standardized social contact diaries to collect data. Employees were requested to record their physical and non-physical contacts in a diary over two consecutive days, documented at the end of each day. Employees from each company were enrolled through email and electronic diaries sent as individual links. Data were collected from April to June 2020.SettingTwo multinational consulting companies and one university administrative department, all located in Georgia, USA.ParticipantsEmployees opted into the study by accepting the invitation on a link sent via email.Main OutcomeThe outcome was median number of contacts per person per day. This was stratified by day of data collection, age, sex, race and ethnicity.ResultsOf 3,835 employees approached, 357 (9.3%) completed the first day of contact diary of which 304 completed both days of contact diary. There was a median of 2 contacts (IQR: 1-4, range: 0-21) per respondent on both day one and two. The majority (55%) of contacts involved conversation only, occurred at home (64%), and cumulatively lasted more than 4 hours (38%). Most contacts were repeated, and within same age groups, though participants aged 30-59 years reported substantial inter-generational mixing with children.ConclusionParticipating employees in 3 surveyed workplaces reported few contacts, similar to studies from the UK and China when shelter-in-place orders were in effect during the pandemic. Many contacts were repeated which may limit the spread of infection. Future rounds are planned to assess changes in contact patterns when employees resume work in the office after the lockdown due to COVID-19 pandemic.

Increased Stress, Declining Mental Health: Emerging Adults’ Experiences in College During COVID-19

2021 ◽  
pp. 216769682110253
Author(s):  
Amanda E. Halliburton ◽  
Michele B. Hill ◽  
Bryan L. Dawson ◽  
Jennifer M. Hightower ◽  
Hailey Rueden
Keyword(s):  
Emerging Adults ◽  
Online Survey ◽  
Life Stage ◽  
Social Contact ◽  
Mixed Methods Study ◽  
Anxiety And Depression ◽  
Depression Symptoms ◽  
College Counselors ◽  
University Population ◽  
The University

The COVID-19 pandemic altered the college experience and substantially impacted emerging adults’ navigation of this life stage. This concurrent mixed-methods study used an online survey, distributed to a southeastern university shortly after the transition to remote learning, to explore and understand college-attending emerging adults’ experiences during COVID-19. A total of 1,220 students ( Mage = 20.9) participated, and the diversity of the demographics was largely consistent with the university population. Participants completed questionnaires about psychopathology and COVID-related stressors, and they were given an opportunity to provide feedback to the university about the adjustment to COVID-19. The most common stressors included loss of routine, lack of social contact, and work/finances. Approximately two-thirds of participants reported anxiety and depression symptoms in the moderate to severe range, and about one-third reported suicidality. The authors discuss the implications of these findings for the ongoing crisis and offer recommendations for universities and college counselors.

scholarly journals Modeling the use of SARS-CoV-2 vaccination to safely relax non-pharmaceutical interventions

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alicia N.M. Kraay ◽  
Molly E. Gallagher ◽  
Yang Ge ◽  
Peichun Han ◽  
Julia M. Baker ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
United States ◽  
The United States ◽  
Asymptomatic Infection ◽  
Vaccination Rate ◽  
Transmission Model ◽  
Dose Strategy ◽  
Degree Of Protection ◽  
Relative Safety ◽  
Historical Levels ◽  
Pharmaceutical Interventions

AbstractIn response to the COVID-19 pandemic, widespread non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs), including physical distancing, mask wearing, and enhanced hygiene, have been implemented. As of March 2021, three effective vaccines have been approved for emergency use in the United States, with several other vaccines in the pipeline. We use a transmission model to study when and how NPIs could be relaxed in the United States with relative safety as vaccination becomes more widespread. We compare different relaxation scenarios where NPIs begin to relax 0-9 months after vaccination begins for both a one dose and two dose strategy, with historical levels of social interactions being reached within 1 month to 1 year. In our model, vaccination can allow widespread relaxation of NPIs to begin safely within 2 to 9 months, greatly reducing deaths and peak health system burden compared to relaxing NPIs without vaccination. Vaccinated individuals can safely begin to relax NPIs sooner than unvaccinated individuals. The extent of delay needed to safely reopen depends primarily on the rate of vaccine rollout, with the degree of protection against asymptomatic infection playing a secondary role. If a vaccination rate of 3 million doses/day can be achieved, similar to the typical rollout speed of seasonal influenza vaccination, NPIs could begin to be safely relaxed in 2-3 months. With a vaccination rate of 1 million doses/day, a 6–9-month delay is needed. A one dose strategy is preferred if relative efficacy is similar to a two-dose series, but the relative benefit of this strategy is minimal when vaccine rollout is fast. Due to the urgent need to pursue strategies that enable safe relaxation of NPIs, we recommend a two-dose strategy with an initial delay of at least 3 months in relaxing restrictions further, and that the speed of vaccine rollout be given immediate priority.

scholarly journals Analyzing the demographic, spatial, and temporal factors influencing social contact patterns in U.S. and implications for infectious disease spread

2021 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Audrey M. Dorélien ◽  
Aparna Ramen ◽  
Isabella Swanson ◽  
Rachelle Hill
Keyword(s):  
Social Contact ◽  
The United States ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Social Contacts ◽  
Physical Proximity ◽  
Household Contacts ◽  
Contact Patterns ◽  
Close Physical Proximity ◽  
The Mean ◽  
At Home

Abstract Background Diseases such as COVID-19 are spread through social contact. Reducing social contacts is required to stop disease spread in pandemics for which vaccines have not yet been developed. However, existing data on social contact patterns in the United States (U.S.) is limited. Method We use American Time Use Survey data from 2003–2018 to describe and quantify the age-pattern of disease-relevant social contacts. For within-household contacts, we construct age-structured contact duration matrices (who spends time with whom, by age). For both within-household and non-household contacts, we also estimate the mean number and duration of contact by location. We estimate and test for differences in the age-pattern of social contacts based on demographic, temporal, and spatial characteristics. Results The mean number and duration of social contacts vary by age. The biggest gender differences in the age-pattern of social contacts are at home and at work; the former appears to be driven by caretaking responsibilities. Non-Hispanic Blacks have a shorter duration of contact and fewer social contacts than non-Hispanic Whites. This difference is largely driven by fewer and shorter contacts at home. Pre-pandemic, non-Hispanic Blacks have shorter durations of work contacts. Their jobs are more likely to require close physical proximity, so their contacts are riskier than those of non-Hispanic Whites. Hispanics have the highest number of household contacts and are also more likely to work in jobs requiring close physical proximity than non-Hispanic Whites. With the exceptions of work and school contacts, the duration of social contact is higher on weekends than on weekdays. Seasonal differences in the total duration of social contacts are driven by school-aged respondents who have significantly shorter contacts during the summer months. Contact patterns did not differ by metro status. Age patterns of social contacts were similar across regions. Conclusion Social contact patterns differ by age, race and ethnicity, and gender. Other factors besides contact patterns may be driving seasonal variation in disease incidence if school-aged individuals are not an important source of transmission. Pre-pandemic, there were no spatial differences in social contacts, but this finding has likely changed during the pandemic.

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