scholarly journals Analysis of the prediction of the 2021 time-evolution of the Covid-19 Pandemic in Italy using a Planck’s distribution

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ignazio Ciufolini ◽  
Antonio Paolozzi
Keyword(s):  
Time Evolution ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Distribution Law ◽  
The Real ◽  
Intensive Use ◽  
Distribution Laws ◽  
Planck’S Law

AbstractIn a previous paper we studied the time evolution of the Covid-19 pandemic in Italy during the first wave of 2020 using a number of distribution laws. We concluded that the best distribution law to predict the evolution of the pandemic, if basic conditions of the pandemic (such as distancing measures, use of masks, start of schools, intensive use of public transportation, beginning and end of holidays, vaccination campaign and no significant onset of new Covid variants) do not appreciably change, is a distribution of the type of Planck’s law with three parameters. In our 2020 study we did not use the number of daily positive cases in Italy but the ratio of daily positive cases per number of daily tests, ratio today sometimes referred to as: “positivity rate”. We showed that, if basic conditions do not change, the Planck’s distribution with three parameters provides very good predictions of the positivity rate about one month in advance. In particular, in a second paper, using the Planck’s distribution with three parameters, we predicted, about one month in advance, the spread of the pandemic in Italy during the Christmas 2020 holidays with an error of a few percent only. We then study the present (September 2021) evolution of the pandemic in Italy and we show that the Planck’s distribution, based on the data of July and August, predicts well the evolution of the pandemic. In particular, we show that the peak of the positivity rate was predicted to occur approximately around the middle of August and that the agreement of this Planck’s function (obtained fitting the data up to 10 July 2021) and the positivity rate observed after 5 weeks, on 12 September 2021 is very good. However, the end of the Italian holidays and the start of all the activities including schools, intensive use of public transportation and further changes in distancing measures may cause a discrepancy of the predicted trend of the positivity rate of the pandemic with respect to the real observed values.

scholarly journals A method to select correcting faces of a double-face dynamic balancing rotor

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (12) ◽  
pp. 168781401668289
Author(s):  
Shihai Zhang ◽  
Zimiao Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Influence Coefficient ◽  
Axial Distribution ◽  
Dynamic Balancing ◽  
The Real ◽  
Influence Coefficients ◽  
Total Phase ◽  
Influence Coefficient Method ◽  
Phase Variations ◽  
Distribution Laws ◽  
Design And Practice

Considering the sensitivity and installing position limitation, the real positions for two correcting faces must be selected first in the process of double-face dynamic balancing design and practice for rigid rotor system. According to the principle of influence coefficient method, series of testing weight experiments are conducted in this article. Based on the experimental results, the axial distribution laws of the amplitudes and phases of influence coefficients are found and summarized as follows: the amplitude variations of influence coefficients are very small and the phase variations of influence coefficients are obvious when the correcting positions are changed along shaft, so the phases of influence coefficients have the key effect on the correcting vector in correcting faces. Based on this fact, the total phase difference maximum method of influence coefficients is proposed to select the real axial positions for correcting faces. The principle of the method is analyzed in theory, and the application effect is tested by double-face dynamic balancing experiments.

scholarly journals The Real-Time Evolution of Sakurai's Star (V4334 Sgr) and other (V)LTP Objects

2006 ◽  
Vol 2 (S234) ◽  
pp. 75
Author(s):  
P.A.M. van Hoof ◽  
M. Bryce ◽  
A. Evans ◽  
S.P.S. Eyres ◽  
M. Hajduk ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
The Real

Residual Oil Distribution Law and Controlling Factors of Chang 6 Reservoir in Liutai Area

2014 ◽  
Vol 1010-1012 ◽  
pp. 1735-1739
Author(s):  
Feng Run Zhang ◽  
Ai Hua Guo ◽  
Huai En Cai
Keyword(s):  
Sedimentary Facies ◽  
Geological Structure ◽  
Controlling Factors ◽  
Water Flooding ◽  
Residual Oil ◽  
Distribution Law ◽  
Total Recovery ◽  
Main Layer ◽  
Oil Distribution ◽  
Distribution Laws

Because of the high heterogeneity, late water flooding and irregular well network, the distribution law of residual oil reserve in Chang 6 reservoir becomes much complicated. Combining the geology with dynamics of the reservoir, volumetric and formation coefficient methods are adapted to calculated the residual reserves, and then the distribution laws and controlling factors are analyzed. The results indicate that: there are still large amounts of residual reserve in main layer Chang 622; the residual reserve can be classified into three kinds, Class I and class II are distributed concentrative in main layer; the controlling factors include property, sedimentary facies, heterogeneity, well network controlling and geological structure and so on. Finally, according to the distribution laws and controlling factors, targeted measures are proposed. The studying results provide well foundations for improving recovery of residual oil reserves and the total recovery of the reservoir.

scholarly journals Quantifying the real-life impacts of vaccination on critical COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mircea T Sofonea ◽  
Corentin Boennec ◽  
Anne Fontalirant ◽  
Marjolaine Regnat ◽  
Jean-Yves Lefrant ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critical Care ◽  
Confidence Interval ◽  
Vaccine Coverage ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Real Life ◽  
Epidemiological Model ◽  
Simultaneous Reduction ◽  
The Real ◽  
Hospital Deaths ◽  
Vaccine Impact

The effectiveness of individual prophylaxis of symptomatic or severe COVID-19 by anti-SARS-CoV-2 vaccination is now well established. However, real-life quantification of the vaccine impact on critical COVID-19 forms -- which require critical care and may lead to death -- is still lacking, especially because simultaneous reduction in community spread has to be accounted for. In this study, we use an epidemiological model tailored to capture hospital dynamics in France to investigate counterfactual scenarios, including purely collective and purely individual vaccines. The model estimates the transmissibility reduction from breakthrough infections to 43% ([32 -- 55]% 95%-likelihood interval) and that 39,100 critical care stays ([26,100 -- 57,100] 95% confidence interval) and 47,400 ([36,200-62,800]) hospital deaths have been prevented by the French vaccination campaign by August 20 2021 -- respectively corresponding to 46% and 57% relative preventions of these outcomes. Furthermore, we show that most of the critical COVID-19 forms have been prevented by the collective component of the vaccine rather than individual prophylaxis, despite its greater effectiveness. These results are in line with the accelerating decrease in fatality ratio with vaccine coverage we highlight in worldwide data.

scholarly journals ANALISIS TARIF ANGKUTAN UMUM BERDASARKAN BIAYA OPERASIONAL KENDARAAN DI KOTA AMBON (STUDI KASUS KONDISI PSBB)

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 ◽  
pp. 151-159
Author(s):  
Fuad Hasan Ohorella ◽  
Imran Oppier
Keyword(s):  
Lower Limit ◽  
Public Transportation ◽  
Calculation Method ◽  
Large Scale ◽  
Daily Activities ◽  
The Real ◽  
Operational Costs ◽  
Directorate General ◽  
Tariff Rates

Public transportation between the island seas is one of the economic backbones where Maluku Province is an archipelagic area. Ambon City as the capital of Maluku Province is a city with activities and interactions between communities using public transportation to support daily activities. However, due to the enactment of PSBB (Large-Scale Social Restrictions) from June 23 to November 22, 2020, the number of public transportations (Perwali No. 18) is limited, with odd-even implementations up to passenger restrictions (6 people per trip), resulting in operational costs. Vehicles will increase. This study aims to find out how much the upper and lower limit tariffs are used for the community and students. In this study, the calculation method was used according to the Standards of the Directorate General of Land Transportation (2002) SK 687/AJ.206/DRDJ/2002. The results of the study show that the upper and lower tariff rates for the community in Nusaniwe District are Rp. 16,592 – Rp. 11,061,-; Sirimau District IDR 5,138 – IDR 3,425,-; and Baguala and Teluk Ambon Districts Rp. 25,000 – Rp. 16,666,-. The upper and lower limit rates for students in Nusaniwe District are Rp. 8,296 – Rp. 5,531,-; Sirimau District IDR 2,569 – IDR 1,712,-; and Baguala and Teluk Ambon Districts Rp 12,500 – Rp 8,333,-. Tariffs based on the BOK during the PSBB period ranged from Rp. 25,000 – Rp. 5,138,-, while the real tariff was Rp. 3,000 – Rp. 5,000.

The real time evolution of post-AGB stars

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (S357) ◽  
pp. 154-157
Author(s):  
Marcin Hajduk
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Planetary Nebulae ◽  
Theoretical Models ◽  
Central Star ◽  
Maximum Temperature ◽  
Additional Parameter ◽  
Agb Stars ◽  
The Real ◽  
Hr Diagram

AbstractEvolution of post-AGB stars is extremely fast. They cross the HR diagram vertically on a timescale of hundreds to some ten thousands of years to reach maximum temperature in their lifetime. This is reflected in an increasing excitation of planetary nebulae on a timescale of years and decades. Since evolutionary timescale of post-AGB stars is very sensitive to their mass, observed changes can be used to determine model dependent central star masses. If an additional parameter is determined (e.g. luminosity or dynamic age), the observed evolution of planetary nebulae can be utilized for observational verification of theoretical models.

scholarly journals The Real-Time Evolution of V4334 Sgr

Galaxies ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 6 (3) ◽  
pp. 79 ◽  
Author(s):  
Peter van Hoof ◽  
Stefan Kimeswenger ◽  
Griet Van de Steene ◽  
Adam Avison ◽  
Albert Zijlstra ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Time Evolution ◽  
Planetary Nebula ◽  
Spectral Features ◽  
The Real ◽  
Thermal Pulse ◽  
Early Stages ◽  
Observational Record

V4334 Sgr (Sakurai’s object) is an enigmatic evolved star that underwent a very late thermal pulse a few years before its discovery in 1996. It ejected a new hydrogen-deficient nebula in the process. The source has been observed continuously since, at many wavelengths ranging from the optical to the radio regime. In this paper we evaluate these data and discuss the evolution of this object. We reach the conclusion that we have seen no evidence for photoionization of the nebula yet and that the spectral features we see are caused either by shocks or by dust. These shocks are an integral part of the hydrodynamic shaping that is now producing a new bipolar nebula inside the old planetary nebula (PN), implying that we have a detailed observational record of the very early stages of the shaping of a bipolar nebula.

The Classical limit of the space distribution law of a gas in a field of force

1928 ◽  
Vol 24 (1) ◽  
pp. 76-79 ◽  
Author(s):  
N. F. Mott
Keyword(s):  
Quantum Theory ◽  
Statistical Mechanics ◽  
Classical Theory ◽  
Classical Limit ◽  
Space Distribution ◽  
Characteristic Functions ◽  
Distribution Law ◽  
Distribution Laws ◽  
The Law ◽  
Analogous Method

The Statistical Mechanics which has been developed in accordance with the requirements of the new Quantum Theory is concerned with distribution laws over energy values only—over, that is, the characteristics of Schrödinger's equation. To obtain a space distribution law, even for the Classical limit, some use must be made of the characteristic functions. A formula has been suggested by Fowler, but it has not been shown that this formula gives the Classical law for gases at ordinary temperatures and pressures. In this paper we shall show that this is so, but before doing so we shall sketch the analogous method of obtaining the law, on the Classical theory.

scholarly journals Mask Using Practice among Bangladeshi Population During COVID-19 Pandemic: A Video-Based Observational Study

2021 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
Author(s):  
Chowdhury Farheen ◽  
◽  
Md Maruf Haque Khan ◽  
Muhammad Ibrahim Ibne Towhid ◽  
Sabrina Mousum ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Transportation ◽  
Rural Areas ◽  
Urban Areas ◽  
Vaccination Campaign ◽  
Binary Logistic Regression ◽  
P Value ◽  
Public Places ◽  
Rural And Urban Areas ◽  
Rural And Urban ◽  
The Government

Background: Although the government of Bangladesh made the use of masks mandatory in public settings during COVID-19, individuals have been reluctant to follow. We intended to know how many people used face masks in public settings during COVID-19. Methodology: This study was conducted in several public settings in Shahbag, an urban sub-district of Dhaka; and Sirajdikhan, a rural sub-district of Munshiganj in Bangladesh on November 2020. A total of 4011 people were identified from the video-graphic data captured from 20 public places for monitoring the use of masks. Finding: More than two-thirds of those observed had no face masks or did not utilize them properly. People in urban regions (43%) used mask more in an appropriate manner than those in rural areas (26%). Females wore masks comparatively more than males (53% vs. 35%, p-value <0.001). People used masks more in the morning than in the afternoon (39% vs. 34%, p-value <0.001). People were seen to use a mask more in hospital areas (60%) than in other places. However, in public transportation stands only one-fourth (25%) of the people wore a mask in an appropriate manner. In binary logistic regression male sex, rural area, public places and time of observation (afternoon) were found as risk factors for not wearing a mask. Interpretation: The general population of both rural and urban areas of Bangladesh is reluctant to wear face masks. Along with the ongoing vaccination campaign, people of Bangladesh need to wear masks for the prevention of COVID-19. Funding: This research has been partially supported by Bangabandhu Sheikh Mujib Medical University.

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