Plasticity in female timing may explain current shifts in breeding phenology of a North American songbird

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Abigail A. Kimmitt ◽  
Daniel J. Becker ◽  
Sara N. Diller ◽  
Nicole M. Gerlach ◽  
Kimberly A. Rosvall ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Relative Fitness ◽  
List Type ◽  
Reproductive Timing ◽  
Breeding Phenology ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Bird Populations ◽  
Sedentary Population ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Over Time

AbstractClimate change has driven changes in breeding phenology. Identifying the magnitude of phenological shifts and whether selection in response to climate change drives these shifts is key for determining species’ reproductive success and persistence in a changing world.We investigated reproductive timing in a primarily sedentary population of the dark-eyed junco (Junco hyemalis) over 32 years. We predicted that juncos would breed earlier in warmer springs in response to selection favouring earlier breeding.To test this prediction, we compared the annual median date for reproductive onset (i.e., egg one date) to monthly spring temperatures and examined evidence for selection favouring earlier breeding and for plasticity in timing.Egg one dates occurred earlier over time, with the timing of breeding advancing up to 24 days over the 32-year period. Breeding timing also strongly covaried with maximum April temperature. We found significant overall selection favouring earlier breeding (i.e., higher relative fitness with earlier egg one dates) that became stronger over time, but strength of selection was not predicted by temperature. Lastly, individual females exhibited plastic responses to temperature across years.Our findings provide further evidence that phenotypic plasticity plays a crucial role in driving phenological shifts in response to climate change. For multi-brooded bird populations, a warming climate might extend the breeding season and provide more opportunities to re-nest rather than drive earlier breeding in response to potential phenological mismatches. However, as plasticity will likely be insufficient for long-term survival in the face of climate change, further research in understanding the mechanisms of female reproductive timing will be essential for forecasting the effects of climate change on population persistence.

scholarly journals Disorder or a new order: how climate change affects phenological variability

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Stemkovski ◽  
James R. Bell ◽  
Elizabeth R. Ellwood ◽  
Brian D. Inouye ◽  
Hiromi Kobori ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Biotic Interactions ◽  
New Order ◽  
Spring Phenology ◽  
Interacting Species ◽  
First Occurrence ◽  
Phenological Shifts ◽  
Flower Phenology ◽  
Over Time

Advancing spring phenology is a well-documented consequence of anthropogenic climate change, but it is not well understood how climate change will affect the variability of phenology year-to-year. Species' phenological timings reflect adaptation to a broad suite of abiotic needs (e.g. thermal energy) and biotic interactions (e.g. predation and pollination), and changes in patterns of variability may disrupt those adaptations and interactions. Here, we present a geographically and taxonomically broad analysis of phenological shifts, temperature sensitivity, and changes in inter-annual variance encompassing nearly 10,000 long-term phenology time-series representing over 1,000 species across much of the northern hemisphere. We show that early-season species in colder and less seasonal regions were the most sensitive to temperature change and had the least variable phenologies. The timings of leaf-out, flowering, insect first-occurrence, and bird arrival have all shifted earlier and tend to be less variable in warmer years. This has led leaf-out and flower phenology to become moderately but significantly less variable over time. These simultaneous changes in phenological averages and the variation around them have the potential to influence mismatches among interacting species that are difficult to anticipate if shifts in average are studied in isolation.

Cultivating Ice over Time: On the Idea of Timeless Knowledge and Places in the Himalayas

1969 ◽  
Vol 58 (2) ◽  
pp. 193-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karine Gagné
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Sense Of Community ◽  
Local Knowledge ◽  
Local Communities ◽  
International Organisations ◽  
Change Over Time ◽  
Local Populations ◽  
Close Study ◽  
Indian Himalayas ◽  
Over Time

Assumptions that local communities have an endogenous capacity to adapt to climate change stemming from time-tested knowledge and an inherent sense of community that prompts mobilisation are becoming increasingly common in material produced by international organisations. This discourse, which relies on ahistorical and apolitical conceptions of localities and populations, is based on ideas of timeless knowledge and places. Analysing the water-place nexus in Ladakh, in the Indian Himalayas, through a close study of glacier practices as they change over time, the article argues that local knowledge is subject to change and must be analysed in light of changing conceptions and experiences of place by the state and by local populations alike.

scholarly journals Marked progress in AL amyloidosis survival: a 40-year longitudinal natural history study

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (8) ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrew Staron ◽  
Luke Zheng ◽  
Gheorghe Doros ◽  
Lawreen H. Connors ◽  
Lisa M. Mendelson ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Standards Of Care ◽  
Al Amyloidosis ◽  
Unexpected Death ◽  
Related Factors ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Natural History Study ◽  
Boston University ◽  
Disease Outcomes ◽  
Patient Subgroups ◽  
Over Time

AbstractThe recent decades have ushered in considerable advancements in the diagnosis and treatment of systemic light chain (AL) amyloidosis. As disease outcomes improve, AL amyloidosis-unrelated factors may impact mortality. In this study, we evaluated survival trends and primary causes of death among 2337 individuals with AL amyloidosis referred to the Boston University Amyloidosis Center. Outcomes were analyzed according to date of diagnosis: 1980-1989 (era 1), 1990-1999 (era 2), 2000-2009 (era 3), and 2010-2019 (era 4). Overall survival increased steadily with median values of 1.4, 2.6, 3.3, and 4.6 years for eras 1–4, respectively (P < 0.001). Six-month mortality decreased over time from 23% to 13%. Wide gaps in survival persisted amid patient subgroups; those with age at diagnosis ≥70 years had marginal improvements over time. Most deaths were attributable to disease-related factors, with cardiac failure (32%) and sudden unexpected death (23%) being the leading causes. AL amyloidosis-unrelated mortality increased across eras (from 3% to 16% of deaths) and with longer-term survival (29% of deaths occurring >10 years after diagnosis). Under changing standards of care, survival improved and early mortality declined over the last 40 years. These findings support a more optimistic outlook for patients with AL amyloidosis.

scholarly journals Warming Arctic summers unlikely to increase productivity of shorebirds through renesting

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah T. Saalfeld ◽  
Brooke L. Hill ◽  
Christine M. Hunter ◽  
Charles J. Frost ◽  
Richard B. Lanctot
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Chick Survival ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Bird Populations ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Daily Survival ◽  
Adequate Food

AbstractClimate change in the Arctic is leading to earlier summers, creating a phenological mismatch between the hatching of insectivorous birds and the availability of their invertebrate prey. While phenological mismatch would presumably lower the survival of chicks, climate change is also leading to longer, warmer summers that may increase the annual productivity of birds by allowing adults to lay nests over a longer period of time, replace more nests that fail, and provide physiological relief to chicks (i.e., warmer temperatures that reduce thermoregulatory costs). However, there is little information on how these competing ecological processes will ultimately impact the demography of bird populations. In 2008 and 2009, we investigated the survival of chicks from initial and experimentally-induced replacement nests of arcticola Dunlin (Calidris alpina) breeding near Utqiaġvik, Alaska. We monitored survival of 66 broods from 41 initial and 25 replacement nests. Based on the average hatch date of each group, chick survival (up to age 15 days) from replacement nests (Ŝi = 0.10; 95% CI = 0.02–0.22) was substantially lower than initial nests (Ŝi = 0.67; 95% CI = 0.48–0.81). Daily survival rates were greater for older chicks, chicks from earlier-laid clutches, and during periods of greater invertebrate availability. As temperature was less important to daily survival rates of shorebird chicks than invertebrate availability, our results indicate that any physiological relief experienced by chicks will likely be overshadowed by the need for adequate food. Furthermore, the processes creating a phenological mismatch between hatching of shorebird young and invertebrate emergence ensures that warmer, longer breeding seasons will not translate into abundant food throughout the longer summers. Thus, despite having a greater opportunity to nest later (and potentially replace nests), young from these late-hatching broods will likely not have sufficient food to survive. Collectively, these results indicate that warmer, longer summers in the Arctic are unlikely to increase annual recruitment rates, and thus unable to compensate for low adult survival, which is typically limited by factors away from the Arctic-breeding grounds.

scholarly journals Cyber operational risk scenarios for insurance companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 24 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. Egan ◽  
S. Cartagena ◽  
R. Mohamed ◽  
V. Gosrani ◽  
J. Grewal ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Cyber Security ◽  
Operational Risk ◽  
Social Engineering ◽  
Insurance Companies ◽  
List Type ◽  
Operational Risks ◽  
Life Insurer ◽  
Cyber Risk ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Over Time

AbstractCyber Operational Risk: Cyber risk is routinely cited as one of the most important sources of operational risks facing organisations today, in various publications and surveys. Further, in recent years, cyber risk has entered the public conscience through highly publicised events involving affected UK organisations such as TalkTalk, Morrisons and the NHS. Regulators and legislators are increasing their focus on this topic, with General Data Protection Regulation (“GDPR”) a notable example of this. Risk actuaries and other risk management professionals at insurance companies therefore need to have a robust assessment of the potential losses stemming from cyber risk that their organisations may face. They should be able to do this as part of an overall risk management framework and be able to demonstrate this to stakeholders such as regulators and shareholders. Given that cyber risks are still very much new territory for insurers and there is no commonly accepted practice, this paper describes a proposed framework in which to perform such an assessment. As part of this, we leverage two existing frameworks – the Chief Risk Officer (“CRO”) Forum cyber incident taxonomy, and the National Institute of Standards and Technology (“NIST”) framework – to describe the taxonomy of a cyber incident, and the relevant cyber security and risk mitigation items for the incident in question, respectively.Summary of Results: Three detailed scenarios have been investigated by the working party:∙Employee leaks data at a general (non-life) insurer: Internal attack through social engineering, causing large compensation costs and regulatory fines, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £210.5m (c. 2% of annual revenue).∙Cyber extortion at a life insurer: External attack through social engineering, causing large business interruption and reputational damage, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £179.5m (c. 6% of annual revenue).∙Motor insurer telematics device hack: External attack through software vulnerabilities, causing large remediation / device replacement costs, driving a 1 in 200 loss of £70.0m (c. 18% of annual revenue).Limitations: The following sets out key limitations of the work set out in this paper:∙While the presented scenarios are deemed material at this point in time, the threat landscape moves fast and could render specific narratives and calibrations obsolete within a short-time frame.∙There is a lack of historical data to base certain scenarios on and therefore a high level of subjectivity is used to calibrate them.∙No attempt has been made to make an allowance for seasonality of renewals (a cyber event coinciding with peak renewal season could exacerbate cost impacts)∙No consideration has been given to the impact of the event on the share price of the company.∙Correlation with other risk types has not been explicitly considered.Conclusions: Cyber risk is a very real threat and should not be ignored or treated lightly in operational risk frameworks, as it has the potential to threaten the ongoing viability of an organisation. Risk managers and capital actuaries should be aware of the various sources of cyber risk and the potential impacts to ensure that the business is sufficiently prepared for such an event. When it comes to quantifying the impact of cyber risk on the operations of an insurer there are significant challenges. Not least that the threat landscape is ever changing and there is a lack of historical experience to base assumptions off. Given this uncertainty, this paper sets out a framework upon which readers can bring consistency to the way scenarios are developed over time. It provides a common taxonomy to ensure that key aspects of cyber risk are considered and sets out examples of how to implement the framework. It is critical that insurers endeavour to understand cyber risk better and look to refine assumptions over time as new information is received. In addition to ensuring that sufficient capital is being held for key operational risks, the investment in understanding cyber risk now will help to educate senior management and could have benefits through influencing internal cyber security capabilities.

Octogenarian Patients with Colon Cancer – Postoperative Morbidity and Mortality are the Major Challenges

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Øystein Høydahl ◽  
Tom-Harald Edna ◽  
Athanasios Xanthoulis ◽  
Stian Lydersen ◽  
Birger Henning Endreseth
Keyword(s):  
Colon Cancer ◽  
Survival Rate ◽  
Emergency Surgery ◽  
Relative Survival ◽  
Curative Intent ◽  
Term Survival ◽  
Younger Patients ◽  
Long Term Survival ◽  
Over Time

Abstract Background Few studies have addressed colon cancer surgery outcomes in an unselected cohort of octogenarian patients. The present study aimed to evaluate the relative survival of octogenarian patients after a major resection of colon cancer with a curative intent. Methods All patients diagnosed with colon cancer at Levanger Hospital between 1980 and 2016 were included. We performed logistic regression to test for associations between 100-day mortality and explanatory variables. We performed a relative survival analysis to identify factors associated with short- and long-term survival.Results Among 239 octogenarian patients treated with major resections with curative intent, the 100-day mortality was 10.1%. Among 215 patients that survived the first 100 days, the five-year relative survival rate was 99.7%. The 100-day mortality of octogenarian patients was significantly shorter than that of younger patients, but the long-term survival converged with that of younger patients. Among octogenarian patients, the incidence of colon cancer more than doubled during our 37-year observation period. The relative increase in patients undergoing surgery exceeded the increase in incidence; hence, more patients were selected for surgery over time. A high 100-day mortality was associated with older age, a high American Society of Anaesthesiologists (ASA) score, and emergency surgery. Moreover, worse long-term survival was associated with a high Charlson Comorbidity Index, a high ASA score, a worse TNM stage, emergency surgery and residual tumours. Both the 100‑day and long-term survival rates improved over time. Conclusion Among octogenarian patients with colon cancer that underwent major resections with curative intent, the 100-day mortality was high, but after surviving 100 days, the relative long-term survival rate was comparable to that of younger patients. Further improvements in survival will primarily require measures to reduce the 100-day mortality risk.

scholarly journals Up with ecology, down with economy? The consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation in the global public sphere

2018 ◽  
Vol 33 (6) ◽  
pp. 587-603 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tuomas Ylä-Anttila ◽  
Juho Vesa ◽  
Veikko Eranti ◽  
Anna Kukkonen ◽  
Tomi Lehtimäki ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Public Sphere ◽  
Climate Change Mitigation ◽  
Analytical Framework ◽  
Economic Evaluations ◽  
Business Elites ◽  
The Public ◽  
The Public Sphere ◽  
Change Mitigation ◽  
Over Time

Building on theories of valuation and evaluation, we develop an analytical framework that outlines six elements of the process of consolidation of an idea in the public sphere. We then use the framework to analyse the process of consolidation of the idea of climate change mitigation between 1997 and 2013, focusing on the interplay between ecological and economic evaluations. Our content analysis of 1274 articles in leading newspapers in five countries around the globe shows that (1) ecological arguments increase over time, (2) economic arguments decrease over time, (3) the visibility of environmental nongovernmental organizations as carriers of ecological ideas increases over time, (4) the visibility of business actors correspondingly decreases, (5) ecological ideas are increasingly adopted by political and business elites and (6) a compromise emerges between ecological and economic evaluations, in the form of the argument that climate change mitigation boosts, rather than hinders economic growth.

scholarly journals 934 Biological mechanisms in the different etiologies of Merkel cell carcinoma patients: polyomavirus or UV exposure

2021 ◽  
Vol 9 (Suppl 3) ◽  
pp. A980-A980
Author(s):  
Domenico Mallardo ◽  
Giosuè Scognamiglio ◽  
Khrystyna North ◽  
Mariaelena Capone ◽  
Michael Bailey ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Informed Consent ◽  
Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Merkel Cell Carcinoma ◽  
Merkel Cell Polyomavirus ◽  
Uv Exposure ◽  
List Type ◽  
Phase 2 ◽  
Merkel Cell ◽  
Term Survival

BackgroundMerkel cell carcinoma (MCC) is a rare and aggressive skin cancer with neuroendocrine features, and it is associated with elevated mortality. The pathogenesis is associated with presence of clonally integrated Merkel cell polyomavirus (MCPyV) or ultraviolet light (UV) exposure.1 The MCPyV causes up to 80% of MCC tumors in North America and Europe.2–4 Recently immunotherapy is having good results,5 the phase 2 trial JAVELIN Merkel 200 indicated that treatment with Avelumab (PDL1 inhibitor) in patients with metastatic MCC pre-treated have a meaningful long-term survival outcomes respect chemotherapy. Moreover, ORRs were highest in patients with high TMB that were also MCPyV−, PD-L1+ or had a greater CD8+ T cell density at the invasive margin.6 In this study, we investigated the biological signatures in patients with MCPyV or not.MethodsFrom April 2011 to June 2018, we collected retrospectively 50 FFPE (Formalin-Fixed Paraffin-Embed) from 37 patients with metastatic MCC and 13 tissues from a secondary metastatic site. All patients have appropriately signed informed consent. We performed an immunohistochemistry assays (IHC) for MCPyV and PDL1. In addition, through the NanoString GeoMx DSP (Digital Spatial Profiling), we analysed 11 patients (6 MCPyV+; 5 MCPyV-) with cutaneous metastasis using a 44-plex antibody cocktail. For each slide we selected three different areas: Intratumoral, extratumoral and tumour border, in each area we selected CD4+ and CD8+ cells in 4 different ROIs (Region of Interest). Statistical analysis was performed via Bonferroni correction, P< 0.05 was considered statistically significant for median stratification.ResultsThe DSP analysis showed that the tumour border cells have an overexpression of IDO respect intratumoral area (adj. p<0.01). Instead, extratumoral area of MCPyV- patients have a higher expression of B7-H3 respect MCPyV+ as well as FOXP3 is higher in the tumour border of MCPyV+ patients and EpCAM in the intratumoral area (p<0.05). PDL1 is overexpressed in MCPyV+ CD4+ cells respect CD8+ (p<0.05). The IHC assay shown that viral status does not change in multiple metastases and PDL1 is elevated in the tumour border (p<0.05).ConclusionsIn this retrospective study, our preliminary data shown that tumour edge have an important role in the modulations of immune infiltrate and patients with Merkel cell polyomavirus could have a different pathway of immunosuppression compared to patients with non-virus related etiology. Further investigations are needed to get additional information.AcknowledgementsThe study was supported by the Institutional Project ”Ricerca Corrente” of Istituto Nazionale Tumori IRCCS Fondazione ”G. Pascale” of Napoli, Italy.ReferencesKaae J, Hansen AV, Biggar RJ, et al. Merkel cell carcinoma: incidence, mortality, and risk of other cancers. J Natl Cancer Inst 2010 June 2;102(11):793–801.Feng H, Shuda M, Chang Y, et al. Clonal integration of a polyomavirus in human Merkel cell carcinoma. Science 2008 February 22;319(5866):1096–100.Garneski KM, Warcola AH, Feng Q, et al. Merkel cell polyomavirus is more frequently present in North American than Australian Merkel cell carcinoma tumors. J Invest Dermatol 2009 January;129(1):246–8.Goh G, Walradt T, Markarov V, et al. Mutational landscape of MCPyV-positive and MCPyV-negative Merkel cell carcinomas with implications for immunotherapy. Oncotarget 2016 January 19;7(3):3403–15.Bichakjian CK, Olencki T, Aasi SZ, et al. Merkel cell carcinoma, version 1.2018, NCCN Clinical Practice Guidelines in Oncology. J Natl Compr Canc Netw 2018 June;16(6):742–774.D’Angelo SP, Bhatia S, Brohl AS, et al. Avelumab in patients with previously treated metastatic Merkel cell carcinoma: long-term data and biomarker analyses from the single-arm phase 2 JAVELIN Merkel 200 trial. J Immunother Cancer 2020 May;8(1):e000674.Ethics ApprovalThe study was approved by internal ethics board of the Istituto Nazionale Tumori IRCCS Fondazione ”G. Pascale” of Napoli Italy, approval number of registry 33/17 OSS.ConsentWritten informed consent was obtained from the patient for publication of this abstract and any accompanying images. A copy of the written consent is available for review by the Editor of this journal.

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