scholarly journals Warming Arctic summers unlikely to increase productivity of shorebirds through renesting

2021 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sarah T. Saalfeld ◽  
Brooke L. Hill ◽  
Christine M. Hunter ◽  
Charles J. Frost ◽  
Richard B. Lanctot
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Chick Survival ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Bird Populations ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Daily Survival ◽  
Adequate Food

AbstractClimate change in the Arctic is leading to earlier summers, creating a phenological mismatch between the hatching of insectivorous birds and the availability of their invertebrate prey. While phenological mismatch would presumably lower the survival of chicks, climate change is also leading to longer, warmer summers that may increase the annual productivity of birds by allowing adults to lay nests over a longer period of time, replace more nests that fail, and provide physiological relief to chicks (i.e., warmer temperatures that reduce thermoregulatory costs). However, there is little information on how these competing ecological processes will ultimately impact the demography of bird populations. In 2008 and 2009, we investigated the survival of chicks from initial and experimentally-induced replacement nests of arcticola Dunlin (Calidris alpina) breeding near Utqiaġvik, Alaska. We monitored survival of 66 broods from 41 initial and 25 replacement nests. Based on the average hatch date of each group, chick survival (up to age 15 days) from replacement nests (Ŝi = 0.10; 95% CI = 0.02–0.22) was substantially lower than initial nests (Ŝi = 0.67; 95% CI = 0.48–0.81). Daily survival rates were greater for older chicks, chicks from earlier-laid clutches, and during periods of greater invertebrate availability. As temperature was less important to daily survival rates of shorebird chicks than invertebrate availability, our results indicate that any physiological relief experienced by chicks will likely be overshadowed by the need for adequate food. Furthermore, the processes creating a phenological mismatch between hatching of shorebird young and invertebrate emergence ensures that warmer, longer breeding seasons will not translate into abundant food throughout the longer summers. Thus, despite having a greater opportunity to nest later (and potentially replace nests), young from these late-hatching broods will likely not have sufficient food to survive. Collectively, these results indicate that warmer, longer summers in the Arctic are unlikely to increase annual recruitment rates, and thus unable to compensate for low adult survival, which is typically limited by factors away from the Arctic-breeding grounds.

scholarly journals Predictors of invertebrate biomass and rate of advancement of invertebrate phenology across eight sites in the North American Arctic

Polar Biology ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 44 (2) ◽  
pp. 237-257
Author(s):  
Rebecca Shaftel ◽  
Daniel J. Rinella ◽  
Eunbi Kwon ◽  
Stephen C. Brown ◽  
H. River Gates ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Prey Availability ◽  
Population Level ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Environmental Drivers ◽  
Chick Survival ◽  
The North ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Nesting Sites ◽  
North American Arctic

AbstractAverage annual temperatures in the Arctic increased by 2–3 °C during the second half of the twentieth century. Because shorebirds initiate northward migration to Arctic nesting sites based on cues at distant wintering grounds, climate-driven changes in the phenology of Arctic invertebrates may lead to a mismatch between the nutritional demands of shorebirds and the invertebrate prey essential for egg formation and subsequent chick survival. To explore the environmental drivers affecting invertebrate availability, we modeled the biomass of invertebrates captured in modified Malaise-pitfall traps over three summers at eight Arctic Shorebird Demographics Network sites as a function of accumulated degree-days and other weather variables. To assess climate-driven changes in invertebrate phenology, we used data from the nearest long-term weather stations to hindcast invertebrate availability over 63 summers, 1950–2012. Our results confirmed the importance of both accumulated and daily temperatures as predictors of invertebrate availability while also showing that wind speed negatively affected invertebrate availability at the majority of sites. Additionally, our results suggest that seasonal prey availability for Arctic shorebirds is occurring earlier and that the potential for trophic mismatch is greatest at the northernmost sites, where hindcast invertebrate phenology advanced by approximately 1–2.5 days per decade. Phenological mismatch could have long-term population-level effects on shorebird species that are unable to adjust their breeding schedules to the increasingly earlier invertebrate phenologies.

Assessing conservation tools for an at-risk shorebird: Feasibility of headstarting for American Oystercatchers Haematopus palliatus

2016 ◽  
Vol 26 (4) ◽  
pp. 451-465 ◽  
Author(s):  
SAMANTHA A. COLLINS ◽  
FELICIA J. SANDERS ◽  
PATRICK G. R. JODICE
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rates ◽  
Ex Situ ◽  
Chick Survival ◽  
Nest Sites ◽  
Attendance Patterns ◽  
Daily Survival ◽  
Annual Productivity ◽  
Haematopus Palliatus ◽  
Eastern Usa ◽  
Artificial Incubation

SummaryManagement of threatened and endangered populations of wildlife increasingly relies upon active intervention such as predator control, habitat manipulation, and ex situ breeding or care. One tool that has received consideration for the management of declining or threatened avian populations is headstarting, or the artificial incubation of eggs and subsequent placement of newly hatched chicks in original or foster nests. We assessed the feasibility of implementing a headstarting program for the American Oystercatcher Haematopus palliatus, a species of high conservation concern in the eastern USA. Annual productivity is often low and lost during incubation, suggesting artificial incubation could enhance annual productivity. We used a control-impact approach to assign nests as either control or headstart and measured daily survival rate, success of parents accepting headstarted chicks, attendance patterns and behaviours of parents, and chick survival. We also implemented a transparent scoring process to rate the success of each step and the overall program. Daily survival rates of nests were significantly higher at headstart compared to control nests, and parents continued to incubate when eggs were well secured at nest sites. Attendance patterns and behaviour did not differ between headstart and control parents, and parents readily accepted healthy chicks whether they were returned to original or foster nests. Chick survival and subsequently annual productivity were, however, not higher at headstart compared to control nests suggesting that although we were able to enhance nest survival, low chick survival was still limiting annual productivity. Ultimately, headstarting may be most appropriate for American Oystercatchers where productivity is lost primarily to flooding, predation, or disturbance during the incubation stage but not during the chick-rearing stage. If, for example, high rates of nest loss are due to predators that also may prey upon chicks, then headstarting may not be an effective conservation tool.

scholarly journals Sage Grouse Chick Survival Rates in Jackson Hole

2009 ◽  
Vol 32 ◽  
pp. 77-80
Author(s):  
Bryan Bedrosin ◽  
Ross Crandall
Keyword(s):  
Annual Variation ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Population Parameters ◽  
Chick Survival ◽  
Sage Grouse ◽  
The Past ◽  
Wintering Habitat ◽  
Jackson Hole ◽  
Nest Initiation

The Greater Sage-grouse (Centrocerus urophasianus) population within Jackson Hole has been declining over the past 60 years (Holloran and Anderson 2004). Currently, several unknown population parameters may affect population models, such as nesting productivity (and annual variation therein), nest initiation and re-nesting rates, sex ratio of chicks produced, chick survival, and annual sub-adult and adult survival rates. While previous research has investigated some of these demographic parameters for the Jackson Hole sage-grouse population (Holloran and Anderson 2004); those estimates may not be adequate due to sample size limitations. Further, there are new constraints on this population due to drastic changes in the wintering habitat from wildfires since those estimates were obtained.

scholarly journals Nest Survival in Dusky Canada Geese (Branta Canadensis Occidentalis): Use of Discrete-Time Models

The Auk ◽  
2006 ◽  
Vol 123 (1) ◽  
pp. 198-210 ◽  
Author(s):  
James B. Grand ◽  
Thomas F. Fondell ◽  
David A. Miller ◽  
R. Michael Anthony
Keyword(s):  
Nest Survival ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Branta Canadensis ◽  
Canada Geese ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Nonparametric Models ◽  
Daily Survival ◽  
Calendar Dates ◽  
Nest Initiation ◽  
Nesting Season

Abstract The Dusky Canada Goose (Branta canadensis occidentalis) population that breeds in the Copper River Delta, Alaska, has declined substantially since the late 1970s. Persistent low numbers have been attributed to low productivity in recent years. We examined patterns in survival rates of 1,852 nests to better understand ecological processes that influenced productivity during 1997-2000. We compared 10 nonparametric models of daily survival rate of nests (DSR) that included variation among years, calendar dates, nest initiation dates, and nest ages with equivalent models based on parametric functions. The unequivocal best model included patterns of DSR that varied among discrete periods of years, calendar dates, and nest ages. Generally, DSR was low early in the nesting season and higher midseason. Across years, patterns in DSR were most variable early and late in the nesting season. Daily survival rates of nests declined between the first and second week after initiation, increased until the fourth week, and then declined during the last week before hatch. Nest survival probability estimates ranged from 0.07 to 0.71 across years and nest initiation dates. Mean rates of nest survival ranged between 0.21 and 0.31 each year. We suggest (1) considering models that do not limit estimates of daily nest survival to parametric forms; (2) placing greater emphasis on sample size when nests are rare, to obtain accurate estimates of nest survival; and (3) developing new techniques to estimate the number of nests initiated. Supervivencia de los Nidos en Branta canadensis occidentalis: Uso de Modelos de Tiempo Discreto

scholarly journals Phenology of hatching and food in low Arctic passerines and shorebirds: is there a mismatch?

2018 ◽  
Vol 4 (4) ◽  
pp. 538-556 ◽  
Author(s):  
Maria C.-Y. Leung ◽  
Elise Bolduc ◽  
Frank I. Doyle ◽  
Donald G. Reid ◽  
B. Scott Gilbert ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Bird Community ◽  
Migratory Bird ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Migration Routes ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Egg Hatching ◽  
Growing Seasons ◽  
Phenological Mismatch ◽  
Tundra Ecosystem ◽  
Northwestern North America

The warming climate is driving earlier spring snow melt and longer growing seasons in tundra regions of northwestern North America, thereby changing the timing of ecological processes. On Herschel Island, Yukon, Canada, we investigated changes in the migratory bird community, and the potential for phenological mismatch of egg hatching with the pulses in abundance of arthropod prey on which young birds depend for growth. We found an apparent reduction in abundance or loss of some species dependent on freshwater ponds or sparsely vegetated upland tundra. Tracking hatch dates of passerines and shorebirds along with the changes in biomass of mobile life history stages of arthropods (principally Araneae, Tipulidae, Carabidae, Muscidae, Chironomidae, Mycetophilidae, and Ichneumonidae), we found no evidence for phenological mismatch in the 2007–2009 time period. Most nests hatched, and the period of most rapid chick growth occurred, in advance of the highest availability of arthropod biomass. Shorebirds hatched significantly later than passerines, less in advance of the peak abundances of arthropods. They are most at risk of future mismatch, given likely trend to earlier onset of arthropod availability and longer migration routes. Herschel Island is a well-studied site warranting further monitoring to assess changes in the Arctic tundra ecosystem.

Persistence of giants: population dynamics of the limpet Scutellastra laticostata on rocky shores in Western Australia

2020 ◽  
Vol 646 ◽  
pp. 79-92
Author(s):  
RE Scheibling ◽  
R Black
Keyword(s):  
Population Dynamics ◽  
Western Australia ◽  
Size Structure ◽  
Survival Rates ◽  
Maximum Size ◽  
High Rate ◽  
Adult Survival ◽  
Rocky Shores ◽  
Adult Size ◽  
Decadal Time Scale

Population dynamics and life history traits of the ‘giant’ limpet Scutellastra laticostata on intertidal limestone platforms at Rottnest Island, Western Australia, were recorded by interannual (January/February) monitoring of limpet density and size structure, and relocation of marked individuals, at 3 locations over periods of 13-16 yr between 1993 and 2020. Limpet densities ranged from 4 to 9 ind. m-2 on wave-swept seaward margins of platforms at 2 locations and on a rocky notch at the landward margin of the platform at a third. Juvenile recruits (25-55 mm shell length) were present each year, usually at low densities (<1 m-2), but localized pulses of recruitment occurred in some years. Annual survival rates of marked limpets varied among sites and cohorts, ranging from 0.42 yr-1 at the notch to 0.79 and 0.87 yr-1 on the platforms. A mass mortality of limpets on the platforms occurred in 2003, likely mediated by thermal stress during daytime low tides, coincident with high air temperatures and calm seas. Juveniles grew rapidly to adult size within 2 yr. Asymptotic size (L∞, von Bertalanffy growth model) ranged from 89 to 97 mm, and maximum size from 100 to 113 mm, on platforms. Growth rate and maximum size were lower on the notch. Our empirical observations and simulation models suggest that these populations are relatively stable on a decadal time scale. The frequency and magnitude of recruitment pulses and high rate of adult survival provide considerable inertia, enabling persistence of these populations in the face of sporadic climatic extremes.

Daily survival rates of ruffed grouseBonasa umbellusin northern Minnesota

2003 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
pp. 351-356 ◽  
Author(s):  
R. J. Gutiérrez ◽  
Guthrie S. Zimmerman ◽  
Gordon W. Gulliont
Keyword(s):  
Survival Rates ◽  
Daily Survival

A MODELING SYSTEM FOR CLIMATE CHANGE RISK ASSESSMENT, MANAGEMENT AND HEDGING IN COASTAL AREAS

2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Sergei Soldatenko ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Genrikh Alekseev ◽  
Alexander Danilov ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Coastal Areas ◽  
Mitigation Strategies ◽  
System Structure ◽  
The Arctic ◽  
Risk Modeling ◽  
Wide Range ◽  
Adverse Weather ◽  
The Impact

Every aspect of human operations faces a wide range of risks, some of which can cause serious consequences. By the start of 21st century, mankind has recognized a new class of risks posed by climate change. It is obvious, that the global climate is changing, and will continue to change, in ways that affect the planning and day to day operations of businesses, government agencies and other organizations and institutions. The manifestations of climate change include but not limited to rising sea levels, increasing temperature, flooding, melting polar sea ice, adverse weather events (e.g. heatwaves, drought, and storms) and a rise in related problems (e.g. health and environmental). Assessing and managing climate risks represent one of the most challenging issues of today and for the future. The purpose of the risk modeling system discussed in this paper is to provide a framework and methodology to quantify risks caused by climate change, to facilitate estimates of the impact of climate change on various spheres of human activities and to compare eventual adaptation and risk mitigation strategies. The system integrates both physical climate system and economic models together with knowledge-based subsystem, which can help support proactive risk management. System structure and its main components are considered. Special attention is paid to climate risk assessment, management and hedging in the Arctic coastal areas.

scholarly journals COVID-19 and future pandemics: a global systems approach and relevance to SDGs

2021 ◽  
Vol 17 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Tharanga Thoradeniya ◽  
Saroj Jayasinghe
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Global Governance ◽  
Systems Approach ◽  
Rna Virus ◽  
Modern Human ◽  
Systems Science ◽  
World Population ◽  
Ecological Processes ◽  
Physical Environments ◽  
Corporate Interests

Abstract Background The COVID-19 pandemic is adversely impacting modern human civilization. A global view using a systems science approach is necessary to recognize the close interactions between health of animals, humans and the environment. Discussion A model is developed initially by describing five sequential or parallel steps on how a RNA virus emerged from animals and became a pandemic: 1. Origins in the animal kingdom; 2. Transmission to domesticated animals; 3. Inter-species transmission to humans; 4. Local epidemics; 5. Global spread towards a pandemic. The next stage identifies global level determinants from the physical environments, the biosphere and social environment that influence these steps to derive a generic conceptual model. It identifies that future pandemics are likely to emerge from ecological processes (climate change, loss of biodiversity), anthropogenic social processes (i.e. corporate interests, culture and globalization) and world population growth. Intervention would therefore require modifications or dampening these generators and prevent future periodic pandemics that would reverse human development. Addressing issues such as poorly planned urbanization, climate change and deforestation coincide with SDGs such as sustainable cities and communities (Goal 11), climate action (Goal 13) and preserving forests and other ecosystems (Goal 15). This will be an added justification to address them as global priorities. Some determinants in the model are poorly addressed by SDGs such as the case of population pressures, cultural factors, corporate interests and globalization. The overarching process of globalization will require modifications to the structures, processes and mechanisms of global governance. The defects in global governance are arguably due to historical reasons and the neo-liberal capitalist order. This became evident especially in the aftermath of the COVID-19 when the vaccination roll-out led to violations of universal values of equity and right to life by some of the powerful and affluent nations. Summary A systems approach leads us to a model that shows the need to tackle several factors, some of which are not adequately addressed by SDGs and require restructuring of global governance and political economy.

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