scholarly journals Regional probabilistic situational awareness and forecasting of COVID-19

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Solveig Engebretsen ◽  
Alfonso Diz-Lois Palomares ◽  
Gunnar &Oslashvind Isaksson R&oslash ◽  
Anja Br&aringthen Kristoffersen ◽  
Jonas Christoffer Lindstr&oslashm ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Mobile Phone Data ◽  
Computation Method ◽  
Detection Probabilities ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Imported Cases ◽  
Approximate Bayesian ◽  
And Control

Mathematical models and statistical inference are fundamental for surveillance and control of the COVID-19 pandemic. Several aspects cause regional heterogeneity in disease spread. Individual behaviour, mobility, viral variants and transmission vary locally, temporally and with the season, and interventions and vaccination are often implemented regionally. Therefore, we developed a new regional changepoint stochastic SEIR metapopulation model. The model is informed by real-time mobility estimates from mobile phone data, laboratory-confirmed cases, and hospitalisation incidence. To estimate locally and time-varying transmissibility, case detection probabilities, and missed imported cases, we present a new sequential Approximate Bayesian Computation method allowing inference in useful time, despite the high parametric dimension. We test our approach on Norway and find that three-week-ahead predictions are precise and well-calibrated, suitable for real-time surveillance. By comparing the reproduction number before and after lockdown, we find a national transmissibility reduction of 85% (95% CI 78%-89%). The estimated effect varied regionally and was larger for the most populated regions than in the national average.

scholarly journals Communication infrastructure for situational awareness enhancement in WAMS with optimal PMU placement

2021 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Bhargav Appasani ◽  
Amitkumar Vidyakant Jha ◽  
Sunil Kumar Mishra ◽  
Abu Nasar Ghazali
Keyword(s):  
Real Time ◽  
Situational Awareness ◽  
Area Measurement ◽  
Measurement Unit ◽  
Monitoring And Control ◽  
Communication Infrastructure ◽  
Wide Area Measurement System ◽  
Digital Elevation ◽  
Elevation Model ◽  
And Control

AbstractReal time monitoring and control of a modern power system has achieved significant development since the incorporation of the phasor measurement unit (PMU). Due to the time-synchronized capabilities, PMU has increased the situational awareness (SA) in a wide area measurement system (WAMS). Operator SA depends on the data pertaining to the real-time health of the grid. This is measured by PMUs and is accessible for data analytics at the data monitoring station referred to as the phasor data concentrator (PDC). Availability of the communication system and communication delay are two of the decisive factors governing the operator SA. This paper presents a pragmatic metric to assess the operator SA and ensure optimal locations for the placement of PMUs, PDC, and the underlying communication infrastructure to increase the efficacy of operator SA. The uses of digital elevation model (DEM) data of the surface topography to determine the optimal locations for the placement of the PMU, and the microwave technology for communicating synchrophasor data is another important contribution carried out in this paper. The practical power grid system of Bihar in India is considered as a case study, and extensive simulation results and analysis are presented for validating the proposed methodology.

COVID-19 will improve real-time epidemic modelling

2020 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Mathematical Modelling ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Disease Spread ◽  
Pandemic Preparedness ◽  
Epidemic Disease ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Easy Task ◽  
Epidemic Modelling ◽  
Control Options ◽  
And Control

Subject Epidemic mathematical modelling. Significance Future transmission of viruses from wildlife to humans is inevitable. As such, the modelling of epidemics will become increasingly important to help policymakers. However, developing, implementing and evaluating simulations of epidemic disease spread and control options in real-time is no easy task. Impacts The science surrounding pandemic preparedness will receive growing attention from academics and biotechnology industries. Epidemic modelling may in the future also project indirect fatalities from an epidemic. Cross-discipline collaboration to fight future pandemics will benefit from crowdsourcing initiatives developed to fight COVID-19.

Microstructural investigation of surface roughness in MBE-grown AlAs

1995 ◽  
Vol 53 ◽  
pp. 454-455
Author(s):  
R. Rajesh ◽  
R. Droopad ◽  
C. H. Kuo ◽  
R. W. Carpenter ◽  
G. N. Maracas
Keyword(s):  
Thin Film ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Growth Control ◽  
Native Oxide ◽  
Effusion Cell ◽  
Surface Oxide Layer ◽  
Microstructural Investigation ◽  
Mbe Growth ◽  
Film Substrate ◽  
And Control

Knowledge of material pseudodielectric functions at MBE growth temperatures is essential for achieving in-situ, real time growth control. This allows us to accurately monitor and control thicknesses of the layers during growth. Undesired effusion cell temperature fluctuations during growth can thus be compensated for in real-time by spectroscopic ellipsometry. The accuracy in determining pseudodielectric functions is increased if one does not require applying a structure model to correct for the presence of an unknown surface layer such as a native oxide. Performing these measurements in an MBE reactor on as-grown material gives us this advantage. Thus, a simple three phase model (vacuum/thin film/substrate) can be used to obtain thin film data without uncertainties arising from a surface oxide layer of unknown composition and temperature dependence.In this study, we obtain the pseudodielectric functions of MBE-grown AlAs from growth temperature (650°C) to room temperature (30°C). The profile of the wavelength-dependent function from the ellipsometry data indicated a rough surface after growth of 0.5 μm of AlAs at a substrate temperature of 600°C, which is typical for MBE-growth of GaAs.

Adaptive Signal Analysis and Interpretation for Real-time Intelligent Patient Monitoring

1994 ◽  
Vol 33 (01) ◽  
pp. 60-63 ◽  
Author(s):  
E. J. Manders ◽  
D. P. Lindstrom ◽  
B. M. Dawant
Keyword(s):  
Computer Architecture ◽  
Real Time ◽  
Data Abstraction ◽  
Monitoring Strategy ◽  
Intelligent Monitoring ◽  
Patient Status ◽  
On Line ◽  
Main Components ◽  
And Control ◽  
Adaptive Signal

Abstract:On-line intelligent monitoring, diagnosis, and control of dynamic systems such as patients in intensive care units necessitates the context-dependent acquisition, processing, analysis, and interpretation of large amounts of possibly noisy and incomplete data. The dynamic nature of the process also requires a continuous evaluation and adaptation of the monitoring strategy to respond to changes both in the monitored patient and in the monitoring equipment. Moreover, real-time constraints may imply data losses, the importance of which has to be minimized. This paper presents a computer architecture designed to accomplish these tasks. Its main components are a model and a data abstraction module. The model provides the system with a monitoring context related to the patient status. The data abstraction module relies on that information to adapt the monitoring strategy and provide the model with the necessary information. This paper focuses on the data abstraction module and its interaction with the model.

EFEKTIVITAS METODE DEMONSTRASI DALAM MENINGKATKAN HASIL BELAJAR SISWA SEKOLAH MENENGAH KEJURUAN PADA PENGAJARAN SISTEM KOLOID

2013 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 28
Author(s):  
Hamda Situmorang ◽  
Manihar Situmorang
Keyword(s):  
High School ◽  
High School Students ◽  
Abstract Concept ◽  
Vocational High School ◽  
School Students ◽  
Lecture Method ◽  
Colloid System ◽  
Before And After ◽  
The Right ◽  
And Control

Abstract Implementation of demonstration method in the teaching of chemistry is assigned as the right strategy to improve students’ achievement as it is proved that the method can bring an abstract concept to reality in the class. The study is conducted to vocational high school students in SMKN1 Pargetteng getteng Sengkut Pakfak Barat at accademic year 2013. The teaching has been carried out three cycles on the teaching of chemistry topic of colloid system. In the study, the class is divided into two class, experiment class and control class. The demontration method is used to teach students in experimental class while the teaching in control class is conducted with lecture method. Both are evaluated by using multiple choise tests before and after the teaching procedures, and the ability of students to answer the problems are assigned as students’ achievements. The results showed that demonstration method improved students’ achievement in chemistry. The students in experimental class who are taughed with demonstration method (M=19.08±0.74) have higher achievements compare with control class (M=12.91±2.52), and both are significantly different (tcalculation 22.85 > ttable 1.66). The effectivity of demostration method in experimental class (97%) is found higer compare to conventional method in control class (91%).

Effects of Time and Perceptual Orientation on Actors' and Observers' Attributions

1984 ◽  
Vol 58 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-30
Author(s):  
Donald S. Martin ◽  
Ming-Shiunn Huang
Keyword(s):  
Video Recording ◽  
Control Group ◽  
Control Groups ◽  
Video Recordings ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Perceptual Orientation ◽  
Initial Difference ◽  
Variety Show ◽  
And Control ◽  
Unrelated Variety

The actor/observer effect was examined by Storms in a 1973 study which manipulated perceptual orientation using video recordings. Storms' study was complex and some of his results equivocal. The present study attempted to recreate the perceptual reorientation effect using a simplified experimental design and an initial difference between actors and observers which was the reverse of the original effect. Female undergraduates performed a motor co-ordination task as actors while watched by observers. Each person made attributions for the actor's behaviour before and after watching a video recording of the performance. For a control group the video recording was of an unrelated variety show excerpt. Actors' initial attributions were less situational than observers'. Both actors and observers became more situational after the video replay but this effect occurred in both experimental and control groups. It was suggested the passage of time between first and second recording of attributions could account for the findings and care should be taken when interpreting Storms' (1973) study and others which did not adequately control for temporal effects.

The Effect of Using Flipped Classroom Model to Improve Iraqi EFL Learners’ Pronunciation in English at University Level

2020 ◽  
Vol 1 (40) ◽  
pp. 631-654
Author(s):  
Khaldoon Waleed Husam Al-Mofti
Keyword(s):  
Language Learning ◽  
Flipped Classroom ◽  
Efl Learners ◽  
English Pronunciation ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Quasi Experimental ◽  
University Level ◽  
The University ◽  
And Control ◽  
Experimental Group

For Iraqi EFL learners who are studying English pronunciation in a traditional instruction method often requires more effort and hard work. Thus, using new methods of teaching such as the flipped classroom model (FCM) is necessary to facilitate learning and improve performance. Hence, this study reports on explanatory research that investigates the effect of using the FCM in the teaching of English pronunciation for Iraqi EFL learners at the university level. The study implemented mixed research methods for data collection in a quasi-experimental analysis. Therefore, two tests were conducted on the assigned groups to measure the effect of the FCM before and after the intervention. Besides, a questionnaire and interviews were used on the experiment group students to collect data about their perceptions of the FCM. The study length (lasted)  was 15 weeks and is comprised of 60 students from the department of English, College of Arts at the University of Anbar. The students were divided into two groups, experimental, and control with 30 students in each group. The findings revealed that there was a significant statistical difference between the two groups in favour of the experimental group with better performance, indicating that the FCM has considerably assisted the Iraqi EFL learners to improve their English pronunciation. Moreover, the students expressed their positive feedback and satisfaction on the use of the FCM in their responses to the questionnaire and the interviews. As such, the current study recommends further research to study the effect of applying the FCM in areas and disciplines other than language learning.

Using advanced control, post-denitrification and equalisation to improve the performance of a submerged filter

2000 ◽  
Vol 41 (4-5) ◽  
pp. 177-184 ◽  
Author(s):  
K.H. Sørensen ◽  
D. Thornberg ◽  
K.F. Janning
Keyword(s):  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Total N ◽  
Control Loops ◽  
Effluent Quality ◽  
Advanced Control ◽  
Before And After ◽  
And Control ◽  
Side Flow ◽  
Configuration Control ◽  
Control Post

In 1998, the capacity of the BIOSTYR® submerged biofilter at Nyborg WWTP was extended from 48,000 PE to 60,000 PE including advanced sensor based control, post-denitrification in BIOSTYR® and equalization of side flows. The existing configuration with 8 BIOSTYR® DN/N cells is based on pre-denitrification and an internal recirculation of 600–800%. The extended plant comprises 7 BIOSTYR® DN/N cells with 50–225% recirculation followed by 3 BIOSTYR DN cells for post-denitrification. The advanced control loops include blower control, control of the number of active cells (stand-by), automatic switch to high load configuration, control of the side flow equalization, control of the internal recirculation and control of the external carbon source dosing. In this paper, the achieved improvements are documented by comparing influent and effluent data, methanol and energy consumption from comparable periods before and after the extension. Although the nitrogen load to the plant was increased by 20% after the extension, the effluent quality has improved significantly with a reduction of Total-N from 7–8 mg/l to 3–4 mg/l. Simultaneously, the methanol consumption has been reduced by more than 50% per kg removed nitrogen. The energy consumption remained constant although the nitrogen load was increased by 20% and the inflow by 80%.

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