scholarly journals Opening up safely: public health system requirements for ongoing COVID-19 management based on evaluation of Australia's surveillance system performance

Author(s):  
Kamalini Lokuge ◽  
Katina D'Onise ◽  
Emily Banks ◽  
Tatum Street ◽  
Sydney Jantos ◽  
...  

Background Ongoing management of COVID-19 requires an evidence-based understanding of the performance of public health measures to date, and application of this evidence to evolving response objectives. This paper aims to define system requirements for COVID-19 management under future transmission and response scenarios, based on surveillance system performance to date. Methods From 1st November 2020 to 30th June 2021 community transmission was eliminated in Australia, allowing investigation of system performance in detecting novel outbreaks, including against variants of concern (VoCs). We characterised surveillance systems in place from peer-reviewed and publicly available data, analysed the epidemiological characteristics of novel outbreaks over this period, and assessed surveillance system sensitivity and timeliness in outbreak detection. These findings were integrated with analysis of other critical COVID-19 public health measures to establish requirements for future COVID-19 management. Findings Australia reported 25 epidemiologically distinct outbreaks and 5 distinct clusters of cases in the study period, all linked through genomic sequencing to breaches in quarantine facilities housing international travellers. Most (21/30, 70%) were detected through testing of those with acute respiratory illness in the community, and 9 through quarantine screening. For the 21 detected in the community, the testing rate (percent of the total State population tested in the week preceding detection) was 2.07% on average, was higher for those detected while prior outbreaks were ongoing. For 17/30 with data, the delay from the primary case to detection of the index case was, on average 4.9 days, with 10 of the 17 outbreaks detected within 5 days and 3 detected after > 7days. One outbreak was preceded by an unexpected positive wastewater detection. Of the 24 outbreaks in 2021, 20 had publicly available sequencing data, all of which were VoCs. Surveillance for future VoCs using a similar strategy to that used for detecting SARS-CoV-2 to date would necessitate a 100-1,000-fold increase in capacity for genomic sequencing. Interpretation Australia's surveillance systems performed well in detecting novel introduction of SARS- CoV-2 in a period when community transmission was eliminated, introductions were infrequent and case numbers were low. Detection relied on community surveillance in symptomatic members of the general population and quarantine screening, supported by comprehensive genomic sequencing. Once vaccine coverage is maximised, the priority for future COVID-19 control will shift to detection of SARS-CoV-2 VoCs associated with increased severity of disease in the vaccinated and vaccine ineligible. This will require ongoing investment in maintaining surveillance systems and testing of all international arrivals, alongside greatly increased genomic sequencing capacity. Other essential requirements for managing VoCs are maintaining outbreak response capacity and developing capacity to rapidly engineer, manufacture, and distribute variant vaccines at scale. The most important factor in management of COVID-19 now and into the future will continue to be how effectively governments support all sectors of the community to engage in control measures.

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Haylea A. Hannah ◽  
Audrey Brezak ◽  
Audrey Hu ◽  
Simbarashe Chiwanda ◽  
Maayan S. Simckes ◽  
...  

ObjectiveTo conduct a field-based assessment of the malaria outbreak surveillance system in Mashonaland East, Zimbabwe.IntroductionInfectious disease outbreaks, such as the Ebola outbreak in West Africa, highlight the need for surveillance systems to quickly detect outbreaks and provide data to prevent future pandemics.1–3 The World Health Organization (WHO) developed the Joint External Evaluation (JEE) tool to conduct country-level assessments of surveillance capacity.4 However, considering that outbreaks begin and are first detected at the local level, national-level evaluations may fail to identify capacity improvements for outbreak detection. The gaps in local surveillance system processes illuminate a need for investment in on-the-ground surveillance improvements that may be lower cost than traditional surveillance improvement initiatives, such as enhanced training or strengthening data transfer mechanisms before building new laboratory facilities.5 To explore this premise, we developed a methodology for assessing surveillance systems with special attention to the local level and applied this methodology to the malaria outbreak surveillance system in Mashonaland East, Zimbabwe.MethodsIn a collaboration between the Zimbabwe Field Epidemiology Training Program and the University of Washington, an interview guide was developed based on the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention’s (CDC) Updated Guidelines for Surveillance Evaluations and WHO’s JEE tool.4,6 The guide was tailored in country with input from key stakeholders from the Ministry of Health and Child Care and National Malaria Control Program. Interview guides included questions focused on outbreak detection, response, and control procedures, and surveillance system attributes (preparedness, data quality, timeliness, stability) and functionality (usefulness). The team utilized the tool to evaluate surveillance capacity in eleven clinics across two malaria-burdened districts of Mashonaland East, Mudzi and Goromonzi. Twenty-one interviews were conducted with key informants from the provincial (n=2), district (n=7), and clinic (n=12) levels. Main themes present in interviews were captured using standard qualitative data analysis methods.ResultsThe majority of key informants interviewed were nurses, nurse aids, or nurse officers (57%, 12/21). This evaluation identified clinic-level surveillance system barriers that may be driving malaria outbreak detection and response challenges. Clinics reported little opportunity for cross-training of staff, with 81% (17/21) mentioning that additional staff training support was needed. Only one clinic (10%, 1/11) had malaria emergency preparedness and response guidelines present, a resource recommended by the National Malaria Control Program for all clinics encountering malaria cases. A third of interviewees (33%, 7/21) reported having a standard protocol for validating malaria case data and 29% (6/21) reported challenges with data quality and validation, such as a duplication of case counts. While the surveillance system at all levels detects malaria outbreaks, clinics experience barriers to timely and reliable reporting of cases and outbreaks to the district level. Stability of resources, including transportation and staff capacity, presented barriers, with half (48%, 10/21) of interviewees reporting that their clinics were under-staffed. Additionally, the assessment revealed that the electronic case reporting system (a WHO-developed SMS application, Frontline) that is used to report malaria cases to the district was not functioning in either district, which was unknown at the provincial and national levels. To detect malaria outbreaks, clinics and districts use graphs showing weekly malaria case counts against threshold limit values (TLVs) based on historic five-year malaria case count averages; however, because TLVs are based on 5-year historic data, they are only relevant for clinics that have been in existence for at least five years. Only 30% (3/10) of interviewees asked about outbreak detection graphs reported that TLV graphs were up-to-date.ConclusionsThis surveillance assessment revealed several barriers to system performance at the clinic-level, including challenges with staff cross-training, data quality of malaria case counts, timeliness of updating outbreak detection graphs, stability of transportation, prevention, treatment, and human resources, and usefulness of TLVs for outbreak detection among new clinics. Strengthening these system barriers may improve staff readiness to detect and respond to malaria outbreaks, resulting in timelier outbreak response and decreased malaria mortality. This evaluation has some limitations. We interviewed key informants from a non-random sample covering 30% of all clinics in Mudzi and Goromonzi districts; thus, barriers identified may not be representative of all clinics in these districts. Secondly, evaluators did not interview individuals who may have been involved in outbreak detection and response but were not present at the clinic when interviews were conducted. Lastly, many of the evaluation indicators were based on self-reported information from key informants. Despite these limitations, convenience sampling is common to public health practice, and we reached a saturation of key informant themes with the 21 key informants included in this evaluation.7 By designing evaluation tools that focus on local-level knowledge and priorities, our assessment approach provides a framework for identifying and addressing gaps that may be overlooked when utilizing multi-national tools that evaluate surveillance capacity and improvement priorities at the national level.References1. World Health Organzation. International Health Regulations - Third Edition. Vol Third. Geneva, Switzerland; 2005. doi:10.1017/CBO9781107415324.004.2. Global Health Security Agenda. Implementing the Global Health Security Agenda: Progress and Impact from U.S. Government Investments.; 2018. https://www.ghsagenda.org/docs/default-source/default-document-library/global-health-security-agenda-2017-progress-and-impact-from-u-s-investments.pdf?sfvrsn=4.3. McNamara LA, Schafer IJ, Nolen LD, et al. Ebola Surveillance — Guinea, Liberia, and Sierra Leone. MMWR Suppl. 2016;65(3):35-43. doi:10.15585/mmwr.su6503a6.4. World Health Organization (WHO). Joint External Evaluation Tool: International Health Regulations (2005). Geneva; 2016. http://apps.who.int/iris/bitstream/10665/204368/1/9789241510172_eng.pdf.5. Groseclose SL, Buckeridge DL. Public Health Surveillance Systems: Recent Advances in Their Use and Evaluation. Annu Rev Public Health. 2017;38(1):57-79. doi:10.1146/annurev-publhealth-031816-044348.6. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. Updated guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems: recommendations from the guidelines working group. MWWR. 2001;50(No. RR-13).7. Dworkin SL. Sample size policy for qualitative studies using in-depth interviews. Arch Sex Behav. 2012;41(6):1319-1320. doi:10.1007/s10508-012-0016-6. 


2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Falaho Sani ◽  
Mohammed Hasen ◽  
Mohammed Seid ◽  
Nuriya Umer

Abstract Background: Public health surveillance systems should be evaluated periodically to ensure that the problems of public health importance are being monitored efficiently and effectively. Despite the widespread measles outbreak in Ginnir district of Bale zone in 2019, evaluation of measles surveillance system has not been conducted. Therefore, we evaluated the performance of measles surveillance system and its key attributes in Ginnir district, Southeast Ethiopia.Methods: We conducted a concurrent embedded mixed quantitative/qualitative study in August 2019 among 15 health facilities/study units in Ginnir district. Health facilities are selected using lottery method. The qualitative study involved purposively selected 15 key informants. Data were collected using semi-structured questionnaire adapted from Centers for Disease Control and Prevention guidelines for evaluating public health surveillance systems through face-to-face interview and record review. The quantitative findings were analyzed using Microsoft Excel 2016 and summarized by frequency and proportion. The qualitative findings were narrated and summarized based on thematic areas to supplement the quantitative findings.Results: The structure of surveillance data flow was from the community to the respective upper level. Emergency preparedness and response plan was available only at the district level. Completeness of weekly report was 95%, while timeliness was 87%. No regular analysis and interpretations of surveillance data, and the supportive supervision and feedback system was weak. The participation and willingness of surveillance stakeholders in implementation of the system was good. The surveillance system was found to be useful, easy to implement, representative and can accommodate and adapt to changing conditions. Report documentation and quality of data was poor at lower level health facilities. Stability of the system has been challenged by shortage of budget and logistics, staff turnover and lack of update trainings.Conclusions: The surveillance system was acceptable, useful, simple, flexible and representative. Data quality, timeliness and stability of the system were attributes that require improvement. The overall performance of measles surveillance system in the district was poor. Hence, regular analysis of data, preparation and dissemination of epidemiological bulletin, capacity building and regular supervision and feedback are recommended to enhance performance of the system.


2017 ◽  
Vol 38 (4) ◽  
pp. 162
Author(s):  
Fiona J May

Culture independent diagnostic tests (CIDT) for detection of pathogens in clinical specimens have become widely adopted in Australian pathology laboratories. Pathology laboratories are the primary source of notification of pathogens to state and territory surveillance systems. Monitoring and analysis of surveillance data is integral to guiding public health actions to reduce the incidence of disease and respond to outbreaks. As with any change in testing protocol, the advantages and disadvantages of the change from culture based testing to culture independent testing need to be weighed up and the impact on surveillance and outbreak detection assessed. This article discusses the effect of this change in testing on surveillance and public health management of pathogens in Australia, with specific focus on gastrointestinal pathogens.


2019 ◽  
Vol 105 (1) ◽  
pp. 62-68
Author(s):  
Richard M Lynn ◽  
Richard Reading

The British Paediatric Surveillance Unit (BPSU) conducts surveillance of rare paediatric conditions using active, or prospective, case finding. The reliability of estimates of incidence, which is the primary outcome of public health importance, depends on ascertainment being as near complete as possible. This paper reviews evidence of the completeness of ascertainment in recent surveillance studies run through the BPSU. Ascertainment varied between 49% and 94% depending on the study. These are upper estimates. This was the basis of a discussion on barriers and facilitators of ascertainment which we have separated into factors related to the condition, factors related to the study methods, factors related to the study team and factors related to the surveillance system infrastructure. This leads to a series of recommendations to ensure continuing high levels of ascertainment in active surveillance studies.


2014 ◽  
Vol 6 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rhonda A. Lizewski ◽  
Howard Burkom ◽  
Joseph Lombardo ◽  
Christopher Cuellar ◽  
Yevgeniy Elbert ◽  
...  

While other surveillance systems may only use death and admissions as severity indicators, these serious events may overshadow the more subtle severity signals based on appointment type, disposition from an outpatient setting, and whether that patient had to return for care if they their condition has not improved.  This abstract discusses how these additional data fields were utilized in a fusion model to improve the Electronic Surveillance System for the Early Notification of Community-based Epidemics (ESSENCE).


2017 ◽  
Vol 9 (1) ◽  
Author(s):  
Roger Morbey ◽  
Alex J. Elliot ◽  
Gillian E. Smith

ObjectiveTo investigate whether aberration detection methods for syndromicsurveillance would be more useful if data were stratified by age band.IntroductionWhen monitoring public health incidents using syndromicsurveillance systems, Public Health England (PHE) uses the ageof the presenting patient as a key indicator to further assess theseverity, impact of the incident, and to provide intelligence on thelikely cause. However the age distribution of cases is usually notconsidered until after unusual activity has been identified in the all-ages population data. We assessed whether monitoring specific agegroups contemporaneously could improve the timeliness, specificityand sensitivity of public health surveillance.MethodsFirst, we examined a wide range of health indicators from the PHEsyndromic surveillance systems to identify for further study thosewith the greatest seasonal variation in the age distribution of cases.Secondly, we examined the identified indicators to ascertain whetherany age bands consistently lagged behind other age bands. Finally,we applied outbreak detection methods retrospectively to age specificdata, identifying periods of increased activity that were only detectedor detected earlier when age-specific surveillance was used.ResultsSeasonal increases in respiratory indicators occurred first inyounger age groups, with increases in children under 5 providingearly warning of subsequent increases occurring in older age groups.Also, we found age specific indicators improved the specificity ofsurveillance using indicators relating to respiratory and eye problems;identifying unusual activity that was less apparent in the all-agespopulation.ConclusionsRoutine surveillance of respiratory indicators in young childrenwould have provided early warning of increases in older age groups,where the burden on health care usage, e.g. hospital admissions, isgreatest. Furthermore this cross-correlation between ages occurredconsistently even though the age distribution of the burden ofrespiratory cases varied between seasons. Age specific surveillancecan improve sensitivity of outbreak detection although all-agesurveillance remains more powerful when case numbers are low.


2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuriy Gankin ◽  
Vladimir Koniukhovskii ◽  
Alina Nemira ◽  
Gerardo Chowell ◽  
Thomas A. Weppelmann ◽  
...  

AbstractThe novel coronavirus SARS-CoV-2 emerged in China in December 2019 and has rapidly spread around the globe. The World Health Organization declared COVID-19 a pandemic in March 2020 just three months after the introduction of the virus. Individual nations have implemented and enforced with varying degrees of success a variety of social distancing interventions to slow the virus spread. Investigating the role of non-pharmaceutical interventions on COVID-19 transmission in different settings is an important research. While most transmission modeling studies have focused on the dynamics in China, neighboring Asian counties, Western Europe, and North America, there is a scarcity of studies for Eastern Europe. This study starts to fill this gap by analyzing the characteristics of the first epidemic wave in Ukraine using mathematical and statistical models together with epidemiological and genomic sequencing data. Using an agent-based model, the trajectory of the first wave in terms of cases and deaths and explore the impact of quarantine strategies via simulation studies have been characterized. The implemented stochastic model for epidemic counts suggests, that even a small delay of weeks could have increased the number of cases by up to 50%, with the potential to overwhelm hospital systems. The genomic data analysis suggests that there have been multiple introductions of SARS-CoV-2 into Ukraine during the early stages of the epidemic with eight distinct transmission clusters identified. The basic reproduction number for the epidemic has been estimated independently both from case counts data and from genomic data. The findings support the hypothesis that, the public health measures did not have a decreasing effect on the existing viral population number at the time of implementation, since strains were detected after the quarantine date. However, the public health measures did help to prevent the appearance of new (and potentially more virulent) SARS-CoV-2 variants in Ukraine.


Author(s):  
Chris Schmidt ◽  
Alba Phippard ◽  
Jennifer M. Olsen ◽  
Kathy Wirt ◽  
Andrea Riviera ◽  
...  

Objective(1) Early detection ofAedes-borne arboviral disease; (2) improveddata onAe. aegyptiandAe. albopictusdistribution in the UnitedStates (U.S.); and (3) education of clinicians and the public.IntroductionZika, chikungunya, and dengue have surged in the Americas overthe past several years and pose serious health threats in regions of theU.S. whereAe. aegyptiandAe. albopictusmosquito vectors occur.Ae. aegyptihave been detected up to 6 months of the year or longer inparts of Arizona, Florida, and Texas where mosquito surveillance isregularly conducted. However, many areas in the U.S. lack basic dataon vector presence or absence. The Zika, dengue, and chikungunyaviruses range in pathogenicity, but all include asymptomatic or mildpresentations for which individuals may not seek care. Traditionalpassive surveillance systems rely on confirmatory laboratory testingand may not detect emergent disease until there is high morbidity in acommunity or severe disease presentation. Participatory surveillanceis an approach to disease detection that allows the public to directlyreport symptoms electronically and provides rapid visualization ofaggregated data to the user and public health agencies. Several suchsystems have been shown to be sensitive, accurate, and timelierthan traditional surveillance. We developed Kidenga, a mobilephone app and participatory surveillance system, to address someof the challenges in early detection of day-biting mosquitoes andAedes-borne arboviruses and to enhance dissemination of informationto at-risk communities.MethodsKidenga sends a weekly push notification prompting users toreport symptoms, travel history, and day-biting mosquito activity.If an individual reports through Kidenga that they or a family memberhave had symptoms consistent with Zika, dengue, or chikungunya,they receive an email with educational information about the diseases,prevention strategies, and treatment/testing information for clinicians.Upon registration, users can opt in to have additional follow-up viaemail. At any time, users may also view maps of aggregated userreports, confirmed case counts by county from public health partners(in pilot areas),Aedesdistribution maps, information about preventionand control strategies, and news on the diseases and vectors from acurated newsfeed. Users in select pilot areas may also receive pressreleases issued by their state or local public health department relatedto the diseases and their vectors. University of Arizona owns andmaintains the app and its data. Local and state health departmentsthat want more detailed information on user symptoms and mosquitoactivity may request and monitor the data at no cost. A marketingcampaign to recruit a broad user base is being implemented inArizona, Texas, and Florida.ResultsKidenga was developed with significant input from public healthstakeholders and launched in September 2016,accompanied byEnglish and Spanish radio public service announcements in selectArizona markets, press releases, and a social marketing campaign.A Spanish version of the app is under development. We willdescribe the results of user registration and survey submissions,challenges identified during development and deployment of thisnovel surveillance system, plans for data use and evaluation, andcollaborations with public health partners.ConclusionsThe utility of Kidenga as a surveillance system will depend onbroad and consistent participation among diverse user populations,particularly in low-risk areas; strategies to integrate health reports forhigh-risk populations who may not have smartphones; validation ofdata and development of sensitive and specific algorithms for takingpublic health action, and buy-in from public health departments touse the data and advocate for this novel surveillance tool. Kidenga’ssecondary function as an education tool onAedes-borne viruses is lessdependent upon a large user base and can be evaluated separately.Participatory surveillance systems that specifically monitorAedes-borne pathogens are relatively new, and the challenges associatedwith their early detection may differ from those of other diseases.


Author(s):  
Katherine Colvin

CONTAINING a viral outbreak with public health measures firstly requires identification of the causative virus, followed by more detailed understanding of viral features. Genomic sequencing provides exhaustive insight into viral features that may help predict outbreak behaviours, assist in diagnosis and tracking, and shape treatment and vaccination strategies. When coupled with epidemiologic study of outbreak data, viral genomic sequencing can be used to direct public health measures and increase the speed of understanding compared to epidemiology alone. Community spread of cases can be used to guide mathematic models and contact tracing of viral outbreaks for public health response. However, epidemiologic data alone better suits responses to low-prevalence and less-widespread outbreaks. Where pathogens have a longer latency period or spread affects rural and remote communities, features of the virus itself must be considered in determining the response. Genotypic and phenotypic characteristics, identified using molecular biology tools, can clarify the type and strain of a virus responsible for an outbreak, and inform and improve case diagnosis, treatment options, and vaccine development, as well as improve tracing accuracy.1


2022 ◽  
Author(s):  
Joanna Merckx ◽  
Jonas Crèveceour ◽  
Kristiaan Proesmans ◽  
Naïma Hammami ◽  
Hilde Denys ◽  
...  

Abstract Background The age specific distribution of SARS-CoV-2 cases in schools is not well described. The numbers recorded reflect the intensity of community transmission while being shaped by biases from age-dependent testing regimes and effective age-specific interventions. A case-surveillance system was introduced within the Flemish school and health-prevention network during the 2020-2021 school year. We present epidemiological data of in-school reported cases in pre-, primary and secondary schools based on the surveillance system, in conjunction with test data and community cases from October 2020 to June 2021. Methods We describe the development of the surveillance system and provide the number of reported cases and standardized rates per grade over time. We calculate absolute and relative differences between incidence cases by grade of primary (grades 1-6) and secondary-school (grades 7-12) and compare these to grades 7-8, relating them to non-pharmaceutical infection prevention interventions. Cumulative population incidences (IP) stratified by age, province and social-economic status (SES) of the school population are presented with their 95% confidence intervals (CI). Results A total of 59,996 COVID-19 cases were reported in the school surveillance system, with the highest population adjusted IP in grade 11-12 of 7.39% (95%CI 7.24-7.53) and ranging from 2.23–6.25% from pre-school through grade 10. Age-specific reduction in in-person teaching and introduction of masks, are temporally associated with decreases in incident cases by grades. Lower pupil SES is associated with increased cumulative cases (excess 2,739/100,000 pupils compared to highest SES tertile). Community testing volumes varied more for children compared to adults, with overall higher child test-positivity. Holidays influence capturing of cases by the system, however efficiency increased to above 75% after further automation and integration in existing structures. Conclusion Integration of case surveillance within an electronic school health system is feasible, provides data to follow up the epidemic evolution in schoolchildren and should be part of public health surveillance and pandemic preparedness. The relationship towards community transmission needs careful evaluation because of age-different testing regimens. In the Flemish region, case incidence within schools follows an age gradient that is mitigated through grade specific interventions, while differences by SES remain.


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