scholarly journals Greater capacity to exploit warming temperatures in northern populations of European beech is partly driven by delayed leaf senescence

2019 ◽  
Author(s):  
Homero Gárate-Escamilla ◽  
Craig C. Brelsford ◽  
Arndt Hampe ◽  
T. Matthew Robson ◽  
Marta Benito Garzón
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Leaf Senescence ◽  
European Beech ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Bud Burst ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Tree Phenology ◽  
Genetically Determined ◽  
The Relationship

AbstractOne of the most widespread consequences of climate change is the disruption of trees’ phenological cycles. The extent to which tree phenology varies with local climate is largely genetically determined, and while a combination of temperature and photoperiodic cues are typically found to trigger bud burst (BB) in spring, it has proven harder to identify the main cues driving leaf senescence (LS) in autumn. We used 925 individual field-observations of BB and LS from six Fagus sylvatica provenances, covering the range of environmental conditions found across the species distribution, to: (i) estimate the dates of BB and LS of these provenances; (ii) assess the main drivers of LS; and (iii) predict the likely variation in the growing season length (GSL; defined by BB and LS timing) across populations under current and future climate scenarios. To this end, we first calibrated linear mixed-effects models for LS as a function of temperature, insolation and BB date. Secondly, we calculated the GSL for each provenance as the number of days between BB and LS. We found that: i) there were larger differences among provenances in the date of LS than in the date of BB; ii) the temperature through September, October and November was the main determinant of LS in beech, although covariation of temperature with daily insolation and precipitation-related variables suggests that all three variables may affect LS timing; and iii) GSL was predicted to increase in northern beech provenances and to shrink in populations from the core and the southern range under climate change. Consequently, the large differences in GSL across beech range in the present climate are likely to decrease under future climates where rising temperatures will alter the relationship between BB and LS, with northern populations increasing productivity by extending their growing season to take advantage of warmer conditions.

scholarly journals Peculiarly pleasant weather for US maize

2018 ◽  
Vol 115 (47) ◽  
pp. 11935-11940 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ethan E. Butler ◽  
Nathaniel D. Mueller ◽  
Peter Huybers
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Crop Model ◽  
World Population ◽  
Growth Phases ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Historical Trends ◽  
Yield Trends ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Temperature Responses

Continuation of historical trends in crop yield are critical to meeting the demands of a growing and more affluent world population. Climate change may compromise our ability to meet these demands, but estimates vary widely, highlighting the importance of understanding historical interactions between yield and climate trends. The relationship between temperature and yield is nuanced, involving differential yield outcomes to warm (9−29 °C) and hot (>29 °C) temperatures and differing sensitivity across growth phases. Here, we use a crop model that resolves temperature responses according to magnitude and growth phase to show that US maize has benefited from weather shifts since 1981. Improvements are related to lengthening of the growing season and cooling of the hottest temperatures. Furthermore, current farmer cropping schedules are more beneficial in the climate of the last decade than they would have been in earlier decades, indicating statistically significant adaptation to a changing climate of 13 kg·ha−1· decade−1. All together, the better weather experienced by US maize accounts for 28% of the yield trends since 1981. Sustaining positive trends in yield depends on whether improvements in agricultural climate continue and the degree to which farmers adapt to future climates.

scholarly journals The Impact of Local Climate Change on Radial Picea abies Growth: A Case Study in Natural Mountain Spruce Stand and Low-Lying Spruce Monoculture

Forests ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 12 (8) ◽  
pp. 1118
Author(s):  
Vladimír Šagát ◽  
Ivan Ružek ◽  
Karel Šilhán ◽  
Pavel Beracko
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Picea Abies ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Spruce Forests ◽  
Spruce Stands ◽  
Local Climate Change ◽  
Positive Correlations ◽  
The Impact

Picea abies L. Karst is undeniably one of the most important tree species growing in Slovakia. In addition to natural mountain spruce forests, monocultures planted in lower areas are also quite common. In this article, we analyze the climate–growth response differences between these two types of spruce stands in the context of local climate change consequences. The study area representing natural mountain spruce forests is located under Osobitá Mt. (Tatra Mountains, Slovakia), while the analyzed low-lying planted monoculture is situated near Biely kríž (Malé Karpaty Mountains, Slovakia). Temporal variation of the dendroclimatological relationships was expressed by the running Spearman correlation coefficient during the observed period 1961–2018. The results showed crucial differences in the dendroclimatological relationships between the selected study areas. For the natural mountain spruce stand, consistent, weak, and positive correlations to the temperature variables were typical, with negative relationships to precipitation during the growing season. In this case, the negative impact of a recent temperature rise was limited. In contrast, the monoculture reacted to the temperature variation during the growing season with fluctuations, while in the case of precipitation, almost no dependence was found. Such incoherency may be a consequence of worsened health conditions, as well as insufficient resiliency to climate-driven stress. The importance of this paper is in its wide applicability, mainly in forestry.

scholarly journals High resistance to climatic variability in a dominant tundra shrub species

PeerJ ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 7 ◽  
pp. e6967 ◽  
Author(s):  
Victoria T. González ◽  
Mikel Moriana-Armendariz ◽  
Snorre B. Hagen ◽  
Bente Lindgård ◽  
Rigmor Reiersen ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
High Resistance ◽  
Climatic Variability ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Climatic Conditions ◽  
Vegetative Cover ◽  
Growth And Survival ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Temperature And Precipitation ◽  
Precipitation Regimes

Climate change is modifying temperature and precipitation regimes across all seasons in northern ecosystems. Summer temperatures are higher, growing seasons extend into spring and fall and snow cover conditions are more variable during winter. The resistance of dominant tundra species to these season-specific changes, with each season potentially having contrasting effects on their growth and survival, can determine the future of tundra plant communities under climate change. In our study, we evaluated the effects of several spring/summer and winter climatic variables (i.e., summer temperature, growing season length, growing degree days, and number of winter freezing days) on the resistance of the dwarf shrub Empetrum nigrum. We measured over six years the ability of E. nigrum to keep a stable shoot growth, berry production, and vegetative cover in five E. nigrum dominated tundra heathlands, in a total of 144 plots covering a 200-km gradient from oceanic to continental climate. Overall, E. nigrum displayed high resistance to climatic variation along the gradient, with positive growth and reproductive output during all years and sites. Climatic conditions varied sharply among sites, especially during the winter months, finding that exposure to freezing temperatures during winter was correlated with reduced shoot length and berry production. These negative effects however, could be compensated if the following growing season was warm and long. Our study demonstrates that E. nigrum is a species resistant to fluctuating climatic conditions during the growing season and winter months in both oceanic and continental areas. Overall, E. nigrum appeared frost hardy and its resistance was determined by interactions among different season-specific climatic conditions with contrasting effects.

scholarly journals What does global mean temperature tell us about local climate?

2015 ◽  
Vol 373 (2054) ◽  
pp. 20140426 ◽  
Author(s):  
Rowan Sutton ◽  
Emma Suckling ◽  
Ed Hawkins
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Climate Model ◽  
Surface Air Temperature ◽  
Internal Variability ◽  
Climate Impacts ◽  
Climate Projections ◽  
Local Climate ◽  
Forced Responses ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Global Mean

The subject of climate feedbacks focuses attention on global mean surface air temperature (GMST) as the key metric of climate change. But what does knowledge of past and future GMST tell us about the climate of specific regions? In the context of the ongoing UNFCCC process, this is an important question for policy-makers as well as for scientists. The answer depends on many factors, including the mechanisms causing changes, the timescale of the changes, and the variables and regions of interest. This paper provides a review and analysis of the relationship between changes in GMST and changes in local climate, first in observational records and then in a range of climate model simulations, which are used to interpret the observations. The focus is on decadal timescales, which are of particular interest in relation to recent and near-future anthropogenic climate change. It is shown that GMST primarily provides information about forced responses, but that understanding and quantifying internal variability is essential to projecting climate and climate impacts on regional-to-local scales. The relationship between local forced responses and GMST is often linear but may be nonlinear, and can be greatly complicated by competition between different forcing factors. Climate projections are limited not only by uncertainties in the signal of climate change but also by uncertainties in the characteristics of real-world internal variability. Finally, it is shown that the relationship between GMST and local climate provides a simple approach to climate change detection, and a useful guide to attribution studies.

scholarly journals MAIDEN: a model for analyzing ecosystem processes in dendroecology

2004 ◽  
Vol 34 (4) ◽  
pp. 874-887 ◽  
Author(s):  
Laurent Misson
Keyword(s):  
Soil Water ◽  
Vapor Pressure Deficit ◽  
Ring Width ◽  
Stand Density ◽  
Quercus Petraea ◽  
Bud Burst ◽  
Ecological Data ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Major Controlling Factor ◽  
The Relationship

Ecophysiological and dendroecological data from a temperate sessile oak (Quercus petraea (Matt.) Liebl.) stand in Belgium were used to develop and parameterize a dendroecological process-based model. The purpose of this model is to serve as a tool for exploring the relationship between climate variability and tree growth based on dendro ecological data. When parameterized, the model was able to correctly simulate measurements of bud-burst date, through fall (r2 = 0.95), soil water content (r2 = 0.81), transpiration (r2 = 0.80), and ring-width series from 1960 to 1999 (r2 = 0.46). Model sensitivity analysis showed that atmospheric vapor pressure deficit is the major controlling factor of transpiration in this type of ecosystem. The model shows that bole increment is principally controlled by temperature because it affects the phenological process of bud burst and thus the growing season length. Precipitation variability does not affect variation of transpiration rate and bole increment because calculated soil water stress is negligible during the simulation period. Discrepancies between observed and simulated bole increment may be a consequence of stand density variations and worm defoliation in the spring. The MAIDEN model is particularly suited for dendreocological analysis because it takes simple species, site condition, and climatic variables as input.

scholarly journals Impacts of Climate Change on the Growing Season in the United States

2011 ◽  
Vol 15 (33) ◽  
pp. 1-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Daniel E. Christiansen ◽  
Steven L. Markstrom ◽  
Lauren E. Hay
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
General Circulation ◽  
Emission Scenario ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
The United States ◽  
Emission Scenarios ◽  
Season Length ◽  
Mountainous Regions ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Total Length

AbstractUnderstanding the effects of climate change on the vegetative growing season is key to quantifying future hydrologic water budget conditions. The U.S. Geological Survey modeled changes in future growing season length at 14 basins across 11 states. Simulations for each basin were generated using five general circulation models with three emission scenarios as inputs to the Precipitation-Runoff Modeling System (PRMS). PRMS is a deterministic, distributed-parameter, watershed model developed to simulate the effects of various combinations of precipitation, climate, and land use on watershed response. PRMS was modified to include a growing season calculation in this study. The growing season was examined for trends in the total length (annual), as well as changes in the timing of onset (spring) and the end (fall) of the growing season. The results showed an increase in the annual growing season length in all 14 basins, averaging 27–47 days for the three emission scenarios. The change in the spring and fall growing season onset and end varied across the 14 basins, with larger increases in the total length of the growing season occurring in the mountainous regions and smaller increases occurring in the Midwest, Northeast, and Southeast regions. The Clear Creek basin, 1 of the 14 basins in this study, was evaluated to examine the growing season length determined by emission scenario, as compared to a growing season length fixed baseline condition. The Clear Creek basin showed substantial variation in hydrologic responses, including streamflow, as a result of growing season length determined by emission scenario.

scholarly journals Long-term trends of climate change and its impact on crop growing season on Montreal Island

2016 ◽  
Vol 8 (1) ◽  
pp. 78-88
Author(s):  
Erika Bouchard ◽  
Zhiming Qi
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Daily Rainfall ◽  
Growing Season ◽  
Annual Rainfall ◽  
Climate Trends ◽  
Growing Season Length ◽  
Mk Test ◽  
Long Term Trends ◽  
Increasing Trends

Long-term trends in air temperature and precipitation under climate change were analyzed for two meteorological stations on the Island of Montreal: McGill (1872–1986) and Pierre-Elliott-Trudeau (P-E-T, formerly Dorval) Airport (1942–2014). A linear trendline analysis, the Mann–Kendall (MK) test and the two-sample Kolmogorov–Smirnov (KS) test were conducted to assess specific climate trends. On a 100-year basis, temperature increased 1.88°C (34%) and 1.18°C (19%) at the McGill and P-E-T Airport sites, respectively, while annual rainfall increased 23.9 mm y−1 (2.3%) and 138.8 mm y−1 (15%) over the same period. The frequency of 50% (every other year) and 95% (every year) annual maximum daily rainfall events showed decreasing trends for the McGill station, but increasing trends for the P-E-T Airport station. Growing degree-days and growing season length are prone to being influenced by climate change and are critical to managing agricultural activities in the Montreal region; both showed increasing trends. At the same time, the onset of the growing season occurred earlier as time progressed.

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