An evaluation of risk factors impacting construction cash flow forecast

2008 ◽  
Vol 13 (1) ◽  
pp. 5-17 ◽  
Author(s):  
Henry A. Odeyinka ◽  
John Lowe ◽  
Ammar Kaka
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Extent Of Occurrence ◽  
Construction Contractor ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast ◽  
Flow Forecast

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to identify and assess the extent of occurrence and impact of risk factors responsible for the variation between the forecast and actual construction cash flow.Design/methodology/approachThe study was conducted through a structured questionnaire administered to UK contracting organizations. Adopting a project‐by‐project approach, respondents were asked to provide opinions on the extent of occurrence of some identified risk factors and their impacts on cash flow forecast. Respondents were split into three groups of small, medium and large contracting firms based on their annual turnover so as to be able to investigate statistical differences of opinions between the groups. Statistical analyses were carried out using mean response analysis and univariate analysis of variance (ANOVA) in order to determine significant risk factors and also to investigate differences of opinions between respondents' groupings.FindingsThe research identified 11 significant risk factors out of 26 research risk variables. These significant risk variables can be grouped under three generic factors of “changes in the design or specification”, “project complexity” and “natural inhibition”. The significant risk variables are those ranking high in “extent of occurrence” and with critical impacts on cash flow forecast. The research further showed that there is no statistically significant difference in the opinions of different categories of contractors regarding the extent of risk occurrence and impacts on cash flow forecast.Research limitations/implicationsThe research showed that the order of extent of risk occurrence is different from the order of impact in case of occurrence. This suggests that further work needs to be done to measure the impact more objectively on a ratio scale so as to provide an avenue for a more quantitative measure of risk impacts on cash flow forecast. This objective is the next focus of this study.Practical implicationsBased on the finding, it is evident that the knowledge of the identified significant risk factors provides invaluable information to the construction contractor as regards what risk variables to focus attention on in cash flow forecasting.Originality/valueThe paper makes an original contribution of exploring the extent of risk occurrence and its impact on construction cash flow forecast from an objective point of view rather that the usual subjective point of view. The epistemic nature of the investigation makes the finding of practical value to the construction contractor in cash flow forecasting.

Literature Review of Treasury Cash Flow Forecast

2020 ◽  
Vol 7 (9) ◽  
pp. 521-523
Author(s):  
Shi Hua
Keyword(s):  
Literature Review ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Early Stage ◽  
Practical Work ◽  
Forecasting Methods ◽  
Great Progress ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting ◽  
Cash Flow Forecast ◽  
Flow Forecast

In this paper, the related literatures of treasury cash flow forecasting in the early stage are reviewed. By reviewing the related literatures, it is found that the treasury cash flow forecasting in China has made great progress, and various forecasting methods have been used in practical work, but there is still room for optimization in treasury cash flow forecasting. Suggestions for optimization are put forward.

Significant risk factors associated with facilities management (FM) outsourcing

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (6) ◽  
pp. 771-796 ◽  
Author(s):  
Dubem I. Ikediashi ◽  
Stephen O. Ogunlana
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
The Body ◽  
Healthcare Sector ◽  
Public Healthcare ◽  
Facilities Management ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Healthcare Facilities ◽  
Factors Associated ◽  
Body Of Knowledge

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to extend the body of knowledge on healthcare facilities management (FM) by investigating the risks associated with outsourcing of FM services in hospitals. Design/methodology/approach – The paper relied on two strands of methodology common with pragmatic research. Questionnaire survey (QS) used data from 208 respondents representing ten hospitals while three out of the ten hospitals involved in the QS were selected based on their willingness to enter the case study (CS) interview. Data collected were analysed using descriptive and inferential statistics for QS and using narrative techniques by discussing themes, sub-themes for the CS. Findings – Findings established 24 out of the 35 risk factors as critical, four factors as somehow critical, and five factors as not critical. Besides, nine risk factors were found to be significantly loaded on the five risk categories. The rank analysis also revealed that the top five critical risk factors are: inexperience and lack of requisite skills; possibility of fraud by vendor; financial failure of chosen vendor; vendor opportunism; and fall in morale of employees. Originality/value – The study provides an unambiguous contribution to exiting body of knowledge on outsourcing risks as it relates to healthcare FM. It reinforces the theory that risks exist in any form of relationship but developed a distinct body of factors associated with outsourcing of FM services particularly from the context of Nigeria’s public healthcare sector.

Risk assessment in public-private partnership infrastructure projects

2017 ◽  
Vol 17 (2) ◽  
pp. 204-223 ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Osei-Kyei ◽  
Albert P.C. Chan
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Hong Kong ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Public Private Partnership ◽  
Cost Overruns ◽  
Private Partnership ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Project Completion ◽  
Rate Fluctuation

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically compare the risk factors in public-private partnership (PPP) projects in developing and developed countries, represented by Ghana and Hong Kong, respectively. Design/methodology/approach A structured questionnaire survey was conducted with PPP practitioners in Ghana and Hong Kong. In total, 103 valid responses were received for analysis. Kendall’s coefficient of concordance and mean ranking were used for data analysis. Findings The results show that respondents from Ghana ranked country risk factors higher, whereas their Hong Kong counterparts ranked project-specific risks higher. The top five significant risks in Ghana are corruption, inflation rate fluctuation, exchange rate fluctuation, delay in project completion and interest rate fluctuation. In Hong Kong, the top five significant risk factors are delay in land acquisition, operational cost overruns, construction cost overruns, delay in project completion and political interference. Originality/value The results of the study inform international investors of the appropriate risk mitigation measures and preventive actions to use when engaging in PPP arrangements in any part of the world. Further, governments who are yet to use the PPP concept would be informed of the prevailing risk factors in other neighbouring countries (i.e. developing or developed countries).

The term structure of equity factor diversification

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (1) ◽  
pp. 23-35
Author(s):  
Julien Fouquau ◽  
Cecile Kharoubi
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Term Structure ◽  
Point Of View ◽  
Dependence Structure ◽  
Copula Functions ◽  
Momentum Strategies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Horizons ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Factor Investing

Purpose Risk factor investing has grown in popularity in recent years and has become a cornerstone of investment portfolios. The goal of factor investing is to generate more returns in the long run. This paper aims to studies the term structure of equity factor. The authors consider the point of view of an American investor and use risk, diversification and performance measures. Design/methodology/approach The authors combine two methodologies as follows: wavelets and copulas. The authors use daily, weekly and monthly equity factor returns to calibrate wavelets and copulas. Copula functions are useful instruments to describe “joint” fluctuations in different markets, especially to capture nonlinearities, providing a reasonable alternative to the assumption of joint normality. To check robustness, the authors propose three different wavelet mother functions to decompose the data and three different time horizons and the authors add a complementary exercise based on performance and diversification measurement without wavelet transform. Findings The authors identify temporal horizons for which diversification benefits would be optimized with the decrease in the level of dependence or even the inversion of the dependence structure. Thus, investors seeking diversification with factor investing have to care about the considered horizon: size and book to market factors seem to provide better diversification in the short term. Momentum strategies seem to deliver better diversification in the long run. All the results are very consistent. Originality/value Very few papers have documented the diversification properties of the equity risk factors. While factors are built to capture systematic risk premia, their diversification properties are still poorly understood. It is necessary to take into account non-normality of risk factors and to study the diversification over different time horizons. The solution is to use wavelet methodology to decompose returns into temporal series of different maturities.

An assessment of risk impact on road projects in Osun State, Nigeria

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (5) ◽  
pp. 673-691
Author(s):  
Feyisetan Leo-Olagbaye ◽  
Henry A. Odeyinka
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Secondary Data ◽  
Road Construction ◽  
Linear Regression Models ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Time Performance ◽  
Road Projects ◽  
Multi Linear Regression ◽  
Project Objectives

PurposeRoad projects have been characterized by risk factors impacting project objectives. Thus, this paper focused on evaluating the effect of risk on cost and time performance of some selected road projects.Design/methodology/approachUsing the theory of two-dimensional nature of risk, a questionnaire was used to collect data from 146 stakeholders involved in road projects in Osun State, Nigeria. Secondary data regarding cost and time performance of 40 selected road projects were also collected. The data collected were used to determine significant risk factors and also to develop multi-linear regression models for evaluating risk impact on cost and time performance of road projects.FindingsResults showed that scope creep and design issues are major risk factors occurring on road projects and those political and economic factors provide higher order of impact. It further demonstrated the possibility of modelling risk impact on cost and time performance of road projects using significant risk factors.Practical implicationsThe knowledge of the identified significant risk factors provides invaluable information to stakeholders regarding what risk variables to focus attention on in road construction. The developed models are also potential practical tools for decision-making.Originality/valueThe study provides a veritable tool for risk assessment that potentially helps with predicting risk impact on cost and time performance of road projects.

scholarly journals CASH FLOW FORECASTING WITH RISK CONSIDERATION USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS (BBNS)

2017 ◽  
Vol 23 (8) ◽  
pp. 1045-1059 ◽  
Author(s):  
Mostafa KHANZADI ◽  
Ehsan ESHTEHARDIAN ◽  
Mahdiyar MOKHLESPOUR ESFAHANI
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Bayesian Belief Networks ◽  
Influence Diagrams ◽  
Belief Networks ◽  
Cash Flow Management ◽  
Construction Companies ◽  
Cash Flow Forecasting

Cash-flow management is very important for contractors given that inadequate cash resources typically are the main causes for bankruptcy of construction companies. In comparison to most other industries, the construction industry is severely plagued by risk, and the success of construction projects usually depends on valuating all risks. However, conventional methods suggested by extant research on cash flow forecasting do not consider comprehensive identifica­tion of risk factors, interactions between the factors, and simultaneous occurrences of the factors. This study introduced a simple and appropriate probabilistic cash flow forecasting model using Bayesian Belief Networks (BBNs) to avoid bankruptcy of contractors by considering influence diagrams and risk factors that affect a project. Workability and reli­ability of the proposed approach was tested on an important building construction project in Iran as a real case study, and the results indicated that the model performed well.

Natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms: probability of and risk factors for aneurysm rupture

2000 ◽  
Vol 93 (3) ◽  
pp. 379-387 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seppo Juvela ◽  
Matti Porras ◽  
Kristiina Poussa
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Smoking Status ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Significant Risk Factor ◽  
Aneurysm Rupture ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Unruptured Aneurysms ◽  
Unruptured Intracranial Aneurysms ◽  
History Of ◽  
Fine Print

Object. The authors conducted a study to investigate the long-term natural history of unruptured intracranial aneurysms and the predictive risk factors determining subsequent rupture in a patient population in which surgical selection of cases was not performed.Methods. One hundred forty-two patients with 181 unruptured aneurysms were followed from the 1950s until death or the occurrence of subarachnoid hemorrhage or until the years 1997 to 1998. The annual and cumulative incidence of aneurysm rupture as well as several potential risk factors predictive of rupture were studied using life-table analyses and Cox's proportional hazards regression models including time-dependent covariates.The median follow-up time was 19.7 years (range 0.8–38.9 years). During 2575 person-years of follow up, there were 33 first-time episodes of hemorrhage from previously unruptured aneurysms, for an average annual incidence of 1.3%. In 17 patients, hemorrhage led to death. The cumulative rate of bleeding was 10.5% at 10 years, 23% at 20 years, and 30.3% at 30 years after diagnosis. The diameter of the unruptured aneurysm (relative risk [RR] 1.11 per mm in diameter, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1–1.23, p = 0.05) and patient age at diagnosis inversely (RR 0.97 per year, 95% CI 0.93–1, p = 0.05) were significant independent predictors for a subsequent aneurysm rupture after adjustment for sex, hypertension, and aneurysm group. Active smoking status at the time of diagnosis was a significant risk factor for aneurysm rupture (RR 1.46, 95% CI 1.04–2.06, p = 0.033) after adjustment for size of the aneurysm, patient age, sex, presence of hypertension, and aneurysm group. Active smoking status as a time-dependent covariate was an even more significant risk factor for aneurysm rupture (adjusted RR 3.04, 95% CI 1.21–7.66, p = 0.02).Conclusions. Cigarette smoking, size of the unruptured intracranial aneurysm, and age, inversely, are important factors determining risk for subsequent aneurysm rupture. The authors conclude that such unruptured aneurysms should be surgically treated regardless of their size and of a patient's smoking status, especially in young and middle-aged adults, if this is technically possible and if the patient's concurrent diseases are not contraindications. Cessation of smoking may also be a good alternative to surgery in older patients with small-sized aneurysms.

Unravelling the risks of construction digitalisation in developing countries

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Douglas Aghimien ◽  
Clinton Aigbavboa ◽  
Tsholofelo Meno ◽  
Matthew Ikuabe
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Structural Equation ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Quantitative Research ◽  
Industrial Revolution ◽  
Significant Risk ◽  
Research Approach ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Security Issues ◽  
Security Operations

Purpose This study aims to present the result of an assessment of the risk of construction digitalisation with a view to sensitising and preparing construction organisations for unforeseen issues that might arise in the course of their digital transformation. Design/methodology/approach The study took a post-positivist stance through a quantitative research approach. A survey of construction professionals actively involved in construction projects in South Africa was conducted using a structured questionnaire. The analysis of the data gathered was done using mean item scores, Kruskal–Wallis H test, exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and structural equation modelling (SEM). Findings EFA revealed five principal risk factors (human and financial, technological, legal and security, operations and socioeconomic risk factors) associated with the digitalisation of construction organisations. However, SEM revealed that four out of these risk components have significant direct relationships with some selected digitalisation outcomes. These significant risk factors are technology, legal and security issues, operations and socioeconomic issues. Originality/value This study provides practical insight into the risk inherent in construction digitalisation, and its result can help organisations seeking to be digitally transformed make informed decisions. Theoretically, the study reveals the risks associated with construction digitalisation – an aspect that has not gained significant attention in the current fourth industrial revolution discourse. Therefore, its findings can form a basis for future studies on the risk of digitalising construction organisations.

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