Incorporating aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in the modelling of construction duration

2020 ◽  
Vol 27 (9) ◽  
pp. 2199-2219
Author(s):  
Hassan Adaviriku Ahmadu ◽  
Ahmed Doko Ibrahim ◽  
Yahaya Makarfi Ibrahim ◽  
Kulomri Jipato Adogbo
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Building Construction ◽  
Percentage Error ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Matlab Programming

PurposeThis study aims to develop a model which incorporates the impact of both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties into construction duration predictions, in a manner that is consistent with the nature/quality of information available about various factors which bring about uncertainties.Design/methodology/approachData relating to 178 completed Tertiary Education Trust Fund (TETfund) building construction projects were obtained from construction firms via questionnaire survey. Using 90% of the data, the model was developed in the form of a hybrid-based algorithm implemented through a suitable user-friendly graphical user interface (GUI) using MATLAB programming language. Bayesian model averaging, Monte Carlo simulation and fuzzy logic were the statistical methods used for the algorithm development, prior to its GUI implementation in MATLAB. Using the remaining 10% data, the model's predictive accuracy was assessed via the independent samples t-test and the mean absolute percentage error (MAPE).FindingsThe developed model's predictions were found not statistically different from those of actual duration estimates in the 10% test data, with a MAPE of just 2%. This suggests that the model's ability to incorporate both aleatory and epistemic uncertainties improves accuracy of duration predictions made using it.Research limitations/implicationsThe model was developed using a particular type of building projects (TETfund building construction projects), and so its use is limited to projects with characteristics similar to those used for its development.Practical implicationsThe developed model's predictions are expected to serve as a useful basis for consultancy firms and contractor organisations to make more realistic schedules and benchmark measures of construction period, thereby facilitating effective planning and successful execution of construction projects.Originality/valueThe study presented a model which permits combined manipulation of aleatory and epistemic uncertainties, hence ensuring a more realistic incorporation of uncertainty into construction duration predictions.

The impact modeling of project management function behaviors on construction labor productivity

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Luong Hai Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Project Management ◽  
Labor Productivity ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Success Factors ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Critical Success ◽  
Project Management Professionals ◽  
The Impact

PurposeConstruction labor productivity (LP) is the key element in forming the success of construction projects. Numerous studies on the topic of critical success factors (CSFs) within construction LP have been conducted, but the results have rarely emphasized developing factors related to managerial function behaviors (MFBs) and examining its relationship with construction LP, a key criterion for measuring construction effectiveness; these less researched topics were the aims of this study.Design/methodology/approachThe empirical research studies were designed to develop managerial behavior's attributes based upon a literature adaptation and focus group studies (FGSs). Then, the causal relationships between MFBs and LP were examined by drawing on project-specific data collected from 195 completed construction projects in Vietnam, which was to the approach to an exploratory factor analysis (EFA) and Bayesian model averaging (BMA) technique.FindingsThe findings reveal that the MFBs' attributes were organized into a four-factor MFB framework: “cooperation emphasis (COOP),” “people orientation (PEOP),” “commitment emphasis (COMT)” and “leadership promotion (LEAD).” The findings reveal that COOP, PEOP and COMT have significant effects on LP.Originality/valueThe success of this approach is expected to broaden academic's horizons of factors affected LP and suggest a useful tool for supporting the project management professionals in enhancing construction LP and sustainability.

Quantitative analysis of the impact of craft worker availability on construction project safety performance

2016 ◽  
Vol 16 (3) ◽  
pp. 307-322 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hossein Karimi ◽  
Timothy R.B. Taylor ◽  
Paul M. Goodrum ◽  
Cidambi Srinivasan
Keyword(s):  
Regression Analysis ◽  
Poisson Regression ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Safety Performance ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Poisson Regression Analysis ◽  
Incident Cases ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Craft Worker

Purpose This paper aims to quantify the impact of craft worker shortage on construction project safety performance. Design/methodology/approach A database of 50 North American construction projects completed between 2001 and 2014 was compiled by taking information from a research project survey and the Construction Industry Institute Benchmarking and Metrics Database. The t-test and Mann-Whitney test were used to determine whether there was a significant difference in construction project safety performance on projects with craft worker recruiting difficulty. Poisson regression analysis was then used to examine the relationship between craft worker recruiting difficulty and Occupational Safety and Health Administration Total Number of Recordable Incident Cases per 200,000 Actual Direct Work Hours (TRIR) on construction projects. Findings The result showed that the TRIR distribution of a group of projects that reported craft worker recruiting difficulty tended to be higher than the TRIR distribution of a group of projects with no craft worker recruiting difficulty (p-value = 0.004). Moreover, the average TRIR of the projects that reported craft worker recruiting difficulty was more than two times the average TRIR of projects that experienced no craft recruiting difficulty (p-value = 0.035). Furthermore, the Poisson regression analysis demonstrated that there was a positive exponential relationship between craft worker recruiting difficulty and TRIR in construction projects (p-value = 0.004). Research limitations/implications The projects used to construct the database are heavily weighted towards industrial construction. Practical implications There have been significant long-term gains in construction safety within the USA. However, if recent craft shortages continue, the quantitative analyses presented herein indicate a strong possibility that more safety incidents will occur unless the shortages are reversed. Innovative construction means and methods should be developed and adopted to work in a safe manner with a less qualified workforce. Originality/value The Poisson regression model is the first model that quantifiably links project craft worker availability to construction project safety performance.

Productivity monitoring in building construction projects: a systematic review

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wesam Salah Alaloul ◽  
Khalid M. Alzubi ◽  
Ahmad B. Malkawi ◽  
Marsail Al Salaheen ◽  
Muhammad Ali Musarat
Keyword(s):  
Systematic Review ◽  
Construction Projects ◽  
Small Sample ◽  
Machine Learning Algorithms ◽  
Building Construction ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Construction Productivity ◽  
Automated Monitoring ◽  
Monitoring Tools ◽  
Meta Analyses

PurposeThe unique nature of the construction sector makes it fall behind other sectors in terms of productivity. Monitoring construction productivity is crucial for the construction project's success. Current practices for construction productivity monitoring are time-consuming, manned and error prone. Although previous studies have been implemented toward reducing these limitations, a gap still exists in the automated monitoring of construction productivity.Design/methodology/approachThis study aims to investigate and assess the different techniques used for monitoring productivity in building construction projects. Therefore, a mixed review methodology (bibliometric analysis and systematic review) was adopted. All the related publications were collected from different databases, which were further screened to get the most relevant based on the Preferred Reporting Items for Systematic Review and Meta-Analyses (PRISMA) criteria.FindingsA detailed review was performed, and it was found that traditional methods, computer vision-based and photogrammetry are the most adopted data acquisition for productivity monitoring of building projects, respectively. Machine learning algorithms (ANN, SVM) and BIM were integrated with monitoring tools and technologies to enhance the automated monitoring performance in construction productivity. Also, it was observed that current studies did not cover all the complex construction job sites and they were applied based on a small sample of construction workers and machines separately.Originality/valueThis review paper contributes to the literature on construction management by providing insight into different productivity monitoring techniques.

Assessing design buildability through virtual reality from the perspective of construction students

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Don Amila Sajeevan Samarasinghe ◽  
Imelda Saran Piri
Keyword(s):  
Virtual Reality ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Building Design ◽  
Assessment Process ◽  
Online Questionnaire ◽  
Sustainable Building ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Building Information ◽  
2D Drawing ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to evaluate the impact of visual models on the ability of construction students to assess design buildability.Design/methodology/approachThe study engaged 45 construction students from one selected tertiary education institute in New Zealand. The data collection process involved meeting the students face-to-face and demonstrating the VR model to them, after which the students completed an online questionnaire and assessed design buildability using both 2D drawing and virtual reality (VR) models. To make this assessment, the participants considered a residential earth building modelled to promote sustainable building features. The assessment process required the participants to evaluate the design buildability of the same building design using a 2D drawing and a 3D VR model.FindingsThe study found that VR models have significant advantages for assessing design buildability. Students measured 16.80% higher average buildability with the 3D VR model compared to the 2D drawing. The participants in the evaluation felt that the visual model significantly improved the comprehensibility of complex designs, which helped identify and manage design buildability (overall, 83% of participants strongly supported this).Originality/valueThe paper showed construction digitisation such as VR, augmented reality and building information modelling is highly cooperative as it can easily be made available for online learning. Thus, the findings support construction educators use online-based VR learning to promote efficient teaching of design buildability to students.

scholarly journals An assessment of cost escalation in building construction project

2021 ◽  
Vol 39 (4) ◽  
pp. 1029-1034
Author(s):  
A. Nazif ◽  
A.K. Mustapha ◽  
F. Sani
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Building Construction ◽  
Project Cost ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Design Error ◽  
Project Construction ◽  
Effective Cost ◽  
Building Project ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

Estimating of cost for building construction projects with minimum error at the conceptual stage of project development is quite  essential for planning. This study seeks to evaluate factors responsible for cost escalation of building construction projects.  Questionnaires were administered to examine and assess these factors. Subsequently, the mean score value of each factor was determined. In addition, Correlation and Linear regression analyses were used to establish the relationship between these factors. Factors responsible for cost escalation in projects were examined as well as the impact of those factors, and occurrence of those factors on project cost. The result of the analysis showed that, the most agreed factors responsible for project cost escalation were; inadequate supervision, irregular payment, and design error, having high mean values of 4.25, 4.20, and 4.15, respectively. Also, correlation analysis result established that the factors responsible for cost escalation and the impact of cost escalation had significant R and R2 of 0.81 and 0.70 respectively. Addressing these factors would go a long way in reducing the escalation of building project cost. Never the less, an effective cost management strategy is absolutely necessary to safeguard and sustain the construction  industry. Keywords: cost escalation, building project, construction, regression analysis

Forecasting the schedule performance resulting from the adoption of social distancing in construction projects

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hilary Omatule Onubi ◽  
Nor'Aini Yusof ◽  
Ahmad Sanusi Hassan ◽  
Ali Ahmed Salem Bahdad
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Partial Least Square ◽  
Least Square ◽  
Equation Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Social Distancing ◽  
Schedule Performance ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Positive Effect

PurposeThe coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has had major impacts on the performance of construction projects that have adopted social distancing measures. This study examines the effect of social distancing measures on project schedule performance through job reorganization on construction project sites.Design/methodology/approachResponses were obtained through a survey of 154 construction projects and analysed using the partial least square structural equation modeling (PLS-SEM) technique.FindingsThe findings established that social distancing has a negative effect on schedule performance, social distancing has a positive effect on job re-organization and job re-organization has a positive effect on schedule performance. Additionally, the results indicate that job re-organization partially mediates the relationship between social distancing and schedule performance, while social distancing moderates the relationship between job re-organization and schedule performance with low social distancing having the stronger positive effect.Originality/valueThis study contributes theoretically to a greater understanding of the impact of adopting COVID-19 safety measures such as social distancing on the schedule performance of construction projects. The study also shows how social distancing could lead to schedule performance through job reorganization.

Assessing the impact of risk allocation on sustainable energy innovation (SEI)

2016 ◽  
Vol 9 (2) ◽  
pp. 259-281 ◽  
Author(s):  
Sulafa M Badi ◽  
Stephen Pryke
Keyword(s):  
Construction Projects ◽  
Sustainable Energy ◽  
Empirical Work ◽  
Energy Performance ◽  
Risk Allocation ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Study Approach ◽  
Energy Innovation ◽  
The Impact

Purpose – The allocation of risk among project participants is an important determinant of innovation success in construction projects. The purpose of this paper is to examine the capacity of risk allocation to encourage the implementation of environmental innovation, particularly sustainable energy innovation (SEI), within the private finance initiative (PFI) project delivery model. Design/methodology/approach – A four-case qualitative research methodology is adopted within the context of the UK government’s building schools for the future programme. Findings – The findings identify that SEIs are encouraged on the innovative projects by the perceived clarity, appropriateness, and manageability of the risks associated with the project’s energy performance on the PFI contract. The main SEIs were largely developed as strategies to manage long-term energy performance risks allocated to private sector actors and safeguard their long-term commitment to the project. However, the findings indicate that excessive perceived innovation-related risks, particularly capital cost risk, may restrict further SEIs to be implemented. Research limitations/implications – The qualitative case study approach adopted may limit the generalisability of the findings. Practical implications – The study and provides practical guidance to policymakers and project managers in developing strategies to support the implementation of SEI in PFI projects. Originality/value – The study attends to a significant gap in knowledge as there is a lack of conceptual and empirical work on managing innovative processes for sustainable energy in PFI projects.

Does higher educational attainment imply less crime? Evidence from the Indian states

2020 ◽  
Vol 48 (1) ◽  
pp. 133-165
Author(s):  
Bijoy Rakshit ◽  
Yadawananda Neog
Keyword(s):  
Educational Attainment ◽  
Tertiary Education ◽  
Dynamic Panel Data ◽  
Crime Rates ◽  
Economic Crime ◽  
Dynamic Panel ◽  
Indian States ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe primary purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate the impact of educational attainment on crime rates across 33 Indian states over the period 2001 to 2013. This paper also examines the role of various macroeconomic, socio-economic and demographic factors in determining the variation of crimes in India.Design/methodology/approachFirst, this paper provides a representative theoretical model and discusses the possible relationship between crime and education. Second, the paper applies a dynamic panel data (DPD) model to extract more precise, unbiased and reliable estimates of the effect of education in abating different crime rates. The main advantage of using the dynamic panel model is to address the problem of endogeneity in some regressors and capture the time persistent effect of education on crime.FindingsEmpirical findings reveal that a 1% increase in gross enrolment ratio leads to the reduction of total crime by 8%. However, a unique finding identifies a positive association between tertiary education and economic crime. This finding further goes against the general belief that criminals tend to be less educated than non-criminals.Practical implicationsThis paper recommends that instead of punishment and mandatory law enforcement for offenders, increase in government expenditure and different educational attainment ratios can go a long way to combat crime in India, which has posed a serious threat to the stability of society. Furthermore, utilizing the information on offenders' educational attainment in examining the crime rates can be a future research agenda for policymakers.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the empirical debate of ‘crime-education nexus’ by examining the role of education on crime in India. This study is the first of its kind that focuses on the aspects of crime and education more recently and investigates the relationship between crime and education due to the recent changes in educational attainment ratios and crime rate.

scholarly journals Bayesian Model Averaging with Change Points to Assess the Impact of Vaccination and Public Health Interventions

Epidemiology ◽  
2017 ◽  
Vol 28 (6) ◽  
pp. 889-897 ◽  
Author(s):  
Esra Kürüm ◽  
Joshua L. Warren ◽  
Cynthia Schuck-Paim ◽  
Roger Lustig ◽  
Joseph A. Lewnard ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Bayesian Model ◽  
Bayesian Model Averaging ◽  
Model Averaging ◽  
Health Interventions ◽  
Change Points ◽  
Public Health Interventions ◽  
The Impact
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