The future of governance in Iran

foresight ◽  
2018 ◽  
Vol 20 (2) ◽  
pp. 175-189 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ali Asghar Pourezzat ◽  
Mohammad Hoseini Moghadam ◽  
Maryam Sani Ejlal ◽  
Ghazaleh Taheriattar
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interdisciplinary Field ◽  
International Trends ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government

Purpose Through an examination of macro-historical studies on the governance of Iran, the purpose of this study is to identify the most significant and important events and trends in the rise and fall of Iranian governments and introduce alternative futures in a range of possible, plausible and preferable forms of future governance. To carry out a foresight study of alternative futures of Iranian governance, the authors used futures studies, based on the detection of the most critical driving forces, which are also the most important uncertainties. Futures studies as an interdisciplinary field of study help to identify the events and trends that affect political change and offer scenarios of four alternative futures for the governance of Iran: Smart and Stable Government, Authoritarian Development-oriented Government, Irrational Government and Irrational Breakable Government. The authors believe that Iran’s endeavors to promote democracy, taking the changing international trends into account, make a more trustworthy future for Iran both possible plausible. Design/methodology/approach Based on macro-history approach and by using “shared history”, future triangle and then scenario planning, the future of Governance in Iran has been analyzed. Findings Whenever the government has distanced itself from the public and has neglected the trend of international change, it has been faced with a period of collapse and annihilation. And whenever these two important factors are understood, the result is a trend of development and growth. Therefore, the most favored image of Iran’s future relies on the maintenance and promotion of public participation and on increasing attention to the sustainable realities of international relations. Originality/value The complexities of events and trends affecting the rise and fall of previous governments of Iran make it necessary to use an interdisciplinary approach to understand the events that have emerged or are emerging in its governance. In this study, from futures studies point of view, transformation of governance has been studied.

The future of the circular economy and the circular economy of the future

2020 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 529-546
Author(s):  
Ricardo Weigend Rodríguez ◽  
Francesco Pomponi ◽  
Ken Webster ◽  
Bernardino D'Amico
Keyword(s):  
Built Environment ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
The Future ◽  
Bibliometric Review ◽  
Practical Implications

PurposeThe circular economy (CE) has gained momentum in recent years as a new economic paradigm. While the CE sets a very defined vision for a sustainable future, it still operates in the present. As such, existing guidance on and research into the CE lack a necessary understanding of how to go from the present to the future. What if the future is different from what the CE expects? The CE cannot answer this question adequately and therefore is not capable of developing this understanding alone. To address this shortcoming, this paper proposes futures studies (FS) as a complementary discipline because it offers exactly what CE lacks: methods to explore alternative futures.Design/methodology/approachTo understand the level of interdisciplinary research in the built environment between CE and FS, a systematic literature review is carried out using a bibliometric review and a snowballing technique. This manuscript reviews seminal literature in both fields and their theoretical background.FindingsThis paper demonstrates the lack of collaboration between CE and FS and highlights a systemic failure within CE, which is to consider the future as unknowable. It further provides an initial understanding of where the synergy sits, recommendations on where to start and introduces some of the FS chief methods that could be used by CE in the built environment.Research limitations/implicationsThe authors’ bibliometric review and snowballing approach might have missed out on some literature that still falls within the scope. Such limitations are due, on one hand, to the authors’ bibliometric review approach by selecting publications based on matching keywords. On the other hand, the snowballing approach is affected by the authors’ subjective judgements on which of the publications are worth to explore based mainly just on the title and abstract of the paper.Practical implicationsThe inclusion of Futures Studies will allow a stronger focus on approaching possible futures to be integrated overtly into existing work, research and action within the CE community.Social implicationsIt is more reasonable to expect that by cooperatively creating and implementing constructed futures with FS methods and CE principles, a better future for the built environment be reached. This is why it is so relevant for humanity that these two communities start to interact as soon as possible and maintain and open and productive collaboration in transitioning towards a sustainable society.Originality/valueTo the authors’ knowledge, this research is the first of its kind by considering FS into the CE debate.

A foresight study on urban mobility: Singapore in 2040

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 22 (1) ◽  
pp. 37-52 ◽  
Author(s):  
Seyed Mehdi Zahraei ◽  
Jude Herijadi Kurniawan ◽  
Lynette Cheah
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Urban Mobility ◽  
Drivers Of Change ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Individual ◽  
City State ◽  
Operational Issues

Purpose The transportation system in any city is complex and evolving, shaped by various driving forces and uncertainties in the social, economic, technological, political and environmental situations. Its development and demands upon it cannot be projected by simply extrapolating past and current trends. This paper aims to present a foresight study examining the future of urban mobility, focusing on the dense Asian city-state of Singapore. The objective is to develop scenarios for the future of urban mobility, to facilitate future policy implementation by highlighting long term challenges and opportunities for transportation planning in cities. Design/methodology/approach To create future scenarios, the authors first sought to identify key drivers of change through environmental scanning, expert interviews, focus group discussions and technology scanning. These drivers of change were subsequently used in a scenario planning workshop, organized to co-create alternative future visions for urban mobility 2040 with experts and local stakeholders. Findings Two scenarios emerged, called the Shared World and the Virtual World. For each scenario, the authors described the key features in terms of dominant transport modes for the movements of passengers and freight. Subsequently, the authors discussed possible implications of each scenario to the individual, society, industry and government. Originality/value As cities grow and develop, city and transport planners should not only address daily operational issues but also develop a well-informed, long-term understanding of the evolving mobility system to address challenges that lie beyond the five- or even ten-year horizon. By using scenario planning approach, the authors hope to prepare stakeholders for the uncertain futures that are continuously shaped by the decisions today.

Stay competitive in 2035: a scenario-based method to foresight in the design and manufacturing industry

foresight ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 309-330 ◽  
Author(s):  
Reza Alizadeh ◽  
Leili Soltanisehat
Keyword(s):  
Manufacturing Industry ◽  
Impact Analysis ◽  
Driving Forces ◽  
Expert Knowledge ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
High Tech ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Design And Manufacturing ◽  
Business As Usual

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to envision the alternative futures of the design and manufacturing industry using an integrated foresight method based on scenario planning. Also, the authors aim at developing robust strategies for an enterprise that aims to be placed as a leading high-tech international design and manufacturing company in 2035. Design/methodology/approach The proposed approach is created by integrating several foresight methods such as Delphi, scenario planning, MICMAC and cross-impact analysis. Findings Automation and sustainable development are found as the fundamental driving forces in the design and manufacturing industry. Four scenarios based on these driving forces and expert knowledge are created: innovation adaptation, forced automation (business-as-usual), sustainable era and automationless scenarios. For the developed scenarios, a set of strategies are proposed by asking experts about the strategies which can be taken to make the enterprise competitive in all developed scenarios in 2035. The main macro-level outcome is that economic and technological drivers will be the most important factors for design and manufacturing, followed by environmental and social factors. Originality/value The proposed method uses the strengths of traditional scenario planning but overcomes its weaknesses by suggesting a systematic process for scenario building and easy application.

scholarly journals A content analysis of the future of tourism through the presidential state of the nation address in the Philippines (1987-2019)

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Robert Charles Capistrano ◽  
Paul Anthony Notorio
Keyword(s):  
Content Analysis ◽  
Tourism Development ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
The Philippines ◽  
Advisory Group ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Planning Approach ◽  
The Future ◽  
Tourism Policy ◽  
The Government

Purpose This study aims to examine the underlying statements with regard to strategic directions and action programmes on tourism found in the state-of-the-nation address (SONA) speeches of six Philippine presidents – from 1987 to 2019. The researchers believe that president SONAs are usually reflective of their plans and are strong indicators of their interest, which could particularly influence the Philippine tourism planning and development. Currently, the lack of guidance in the theoretical framework and research discussion in exploring the Philippine tourism policy and development priorities using presidents’ SONA speeches are found wanting. Scenario planning approach was used as a framework. Design/methodology/approach Scenario planning approach requires inputs from an advisory group to create scenario drivers. As inputs, the presidents’ SONA speeches were used in this study while the researchers assumed the role of scenario thinkers. The speeches were downloaded and imported into a qualitative data software. Through a series of text search with regard to strategic directions and action programmes on tourism, underlying statements were subjected to content analysis to create nodes. The nodes were used as the basis in creating scenario drivers, which became the basis in creating the model. The models underwent the following validation procedures: researcher, concept and literature review. Findings Based on the data, there are three identified major drivers of the present and future of Philippine tourism; these are tourism policy, tourism development and prospects for the future (temporal element). It also indicates tourism development and temporal element as dominant, with very few on tourism policies. By combining the tourism policy and tourism development, the development of the tourism policy and development confluence model was created. Meanwhile, the addition of the temporal element provided a third scenario driver that led to the creation of the dimensions of tourism policy and development scenarios. Practical implications The developed model can be adapted to many contexts that extend even outside of tourism. The public tourism offices, such as the department of tourism and the regional, provincial, city and municipal tourism offices, can use the model to help them prioritise tourism development programmes and lobby for tourism policy creation. Social implications The model will significantly assist decision-makers and policymakers to be conscious in crafting and enacting their tourism plans and programmes. It presents tourism policy and tourism development as scenario drivers that are interrelated; hence, a mutual relationship between the executive and legislative sectors of the government can be expected. Originality/value The study positions its originality and value in three areas: scenario planning, tourism future and president’s interest in tourism. In terms of scenario planning, the study was able to present interaction among three scenario drivers compared to most models that only have two. In the area of tourism future studies, this study claims that qualitative historical data can also be used to predict future scenarios. Despite the limited literature examining the tourism interest of the top-level administration, using speeches made by head of state is found plausible to predict the future of Philippine tourism.

The future persona: a futures method to let your scenarios come to life

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (4) ◽  
pp. 445-466 ◽  
Author(s):  
Alessandro Fergnani
Keyword(s):  
Design Methodology ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
User Centered Design ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Future Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Creation Process ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Mind ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to formally introduce the future persona, a futures method to let scenarios come to life. A future persona is a scenario-specific fictional individual living in the future scenario (s)he is meant to depict. The paper provides a formal, systematic and clear step-by-step guide on how to create engaging and effective future personas after a scenario planning exercise. Design/methodology/approach After having introduced the future persona method, tracing it back to the customer persona method in user centered design (UCD) and differentiating it from previous uses of futures characters in the futures studies literature and in other domains, an example of the creation process of four future personas based on four scenario archetypes of the futures of work is provided, illustrated with pictures and discussed. Findings Future personas, with their narratives and graphical illustrations, are found to be particularly useful to convey scenarios to a target audience. Practical implications Futures personas can be used in a scenario planning exercise to increase the clarity of scenarios in the mind of scenario planners and to let scenarios be known inside an organization. Originality/value Future personas can substantially enrich scenarios, increasing their liveliness, playfulness and empathy.

scholarly journals Comparisons of students’ perceptions on BIM practice among Australia, China and UK

2019 ◽  
Vol 26 (9) ◽  
pp. 1899-1923 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ruoyu Jin ◽  
Patrick Xiaowei Zou ◽  
Bo Li ◽  
Poorang Piroozfar ◽  
Noel Painting
Keyword(s):  
Driving Forces ◽  
3D Visualization ◽  
Influence Factors ◽  
The Body ◽  
Global Perspective ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Future ◽  
Assessment Approach ◽  
The Government ◽  
Future Work

Purpose University students are the future driving forces in and leaders of the architectural, engineering and construction (AEC) industry advancement. Although BIM pedagogical studies have been performed in different institutions, there has not been sufficient research providing a global perspective of BIM education and students’ perceptions toward BIM practice and application following their learning progress. The purpose of this paper is to adopt student samples from Swinburne University of Technology (SUT, Australia), Wenzhou University (WZU, China) and University of Brighton (UK) as three case studies to investigate the BIM practice and application-related perceptions and motivations. Design/methodology/approach Based on the thorough understanding of the BIM pedagogical delivery including teaching contents and assessment methods among the three institutions, a questionnaire survey approach was adopted to collect AEC students’ perceptions of BIM. Within each selected case, statistical analysis was conducted to investigate both the overall sample and subgroup differences regarding students’ opinions on BIM’s functions (e.g. as a 3D visualization tool) and BIM usefulness in various industry professions, their motivation in BIM-related jobs and their perceptions of challenges encountered in BIM practice and application. Multiple factors influencing BIM learners’ perceptions were discussed, such as pedagogical assessment approach, and individual factors (e.g. disciplines). Findings The results showed that students were able to discern the latest industry practices and critical thinking in BIM movements. For example, SUT students perceived more challenges from the government legislation or incentive policies, which was consistent with Australia’s BIM policy movement. WZU students tended to have less positive views on BIM usefulness. The results also indicated fewer differences regarding perceived challenges among students from these three institutions. Originality/value This study contributed to the body of knowledge in managerial BIM by focusing on learners’ perceptions from the perspective of students’ understanding, motivation and individual views of BIM, which were insightful to both BIM educators and employers. By initiating the framework of BIM learning process and its influence factors, the current study serves as a point of reference to continue the future work in strengthening the connection between institutional BIM education and industry practical needs worldwide.

scholarly journals Futures Studies & the CircularEconomy: an Interdisciplinary Approach to Sustainable Development

2019 ◽  
pp. 38-60
Author(s):  
Ricardo Weigend Rodríguez ◽  
Francesco Pomponi ◽  
Bernardino D’Amico
Keyword(s):  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Circular Economy ◽  
Interdisciplinary Approach ◽  
Theoretical Background ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Alternative Futures ◽  
Economic Paradigm ◽  
The Future

While the Circular Economy (CE) is gaining traction as a new economic paradigm to overcome the linear economy, it has not yet developed an understanding on how to transition from the present into the future. What if the future is different from what the CE expects? We argue that the CE cannot answer this question adequately and therefore is not capable of developing this understanding alone. To address this shortcoming, we propose Futures Studies (FS) as a complementary discipline because it offers exactly what CE lacks: methods to explore alternative futures. Whilst both communities are working towards the same goal —a sustainable tomorrow— until now they show little to no interaction. This research represents a first step towards embedding realistic considerations of futures into the CE debate: it reviews literature in both fields and their theoretical background to highlight potential synergies, and lay a path on where and how to start.

scholarly journals Hope against hope: COVID-19 and the space for political imagination

2021 ◽  
pp. 136754942110045
Author(s):  
Jonathan Gross
Keyword(s):  
Cultural Studies ◽  
Critical Pedagogy ◽  
Political Imagination ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Political Struggle ◽  
Discursive Space ◽  
Devised Theatre ◽  
Interdisciplinary Field ◽  
The Future

COVID-19 has loosened neoliberalism’s hegemonic grip on the future. Amid the enormous suffering experienced internationally, there is much discussion of how to ‘Build Back Better’, and hope for a more caring, just and sustainable world. But competing futures are being imagined and planned. Hope is never politically neutral, and the content of collective hope is a key site of political struggle. This is partly a question of space: who has the literal and discursive space in which to develop visions of the future? The following article considers the role that cultural studies can play in this struggle. ‘Conjunctural analysis’ has a key task, making visible the competing futures contained within the present. But cultural studies should go further: combining conjunctural analysis with methods drawn from a range of scholarly and activist traditions – including critical pedagogy, devised theatre and the interdisciplinary field of futures studies – that deliberately create spaces for imagining new futures.

Forty years of rural reform in China: retrospect and future prospects

2019 ◽  
Vol 11 (3) ◽  
pp. 460-470 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xiwen Chen
Keyword(s):  
Rural Areas ◽  
Agricultural Policies ◽  
Timely Manner ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Rural Reform ◽  
Fields Of Study ◽  
The Future ◽  
The Government

Purpose Bottlenecked by rural underdevelopment, China’s overall development is bound to be inadequate and unbalanced. Through a brief retrospect of the reform directed against the “equalitarianism (egalitarianism)” in China’s rural areas, as well as the Chinese Government’s conceptual transformation and systemic construction and improvement thereof, the purpose of this paper is to clarify the panoramic significance of rural reform; the necessity, priority, and long-term nature of the current rural development; and the important role of public policy in doing so. It also looks ahead to consider the prospects for future rural reform. Design/methodology/approach This paper first reviews the rural reforms that were carried out in 1978. Second, it introduces the government’s conceptual change regarding rural reform and the establishment and improvement of the system that underlies it. Finally, the future of rural reform is envisaged. Findings The initial rural reforms brought extensive and profound changes to China’s rural areas. The experience of rural reform has been referred to and escalated by other fields of study. Hence, rural reforms have become something of global significance. Moreover, since the government can undertake reforms well beyond the reach of farmers, its views must be modified in a timely manner, and only then may it reasonably construct and improve the system pertaining to the “three rural issues (agriculture, rural areas, and farmers).” Originality/value This paper reviews the rural reforms carried out in 1978. It introduces the government’s change of concept with respect to rural reforms and the establishment and improvement of the system based on the “three rural issues,” thus looking forward to the future of rural reforms. The findings of this paper are of significance to the formulation of future agricultural policies.

scholarly journals Innovative scenario planning of petrochemical enterprises in the Iranian community

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (3) ◽  
pp. 465-480
Author(s):  
Babak Ziyae ◽  
Rosnani Jusoh ◽  
Hamidreza Madadian
Keyword(s):  
Petrochemical Industry ◽  
Conceptual Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Capabilities ◽  
Scenario Planning ◽  
Futures Studies ◽  
Interpretive Structural Modeling ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Relationship ◽  
Significant Attention ◽  
Shed Light

Purpose Research studies on futures studies have recently gained significant attention to create a desirable future based on the environmental change. Futures studies follow discovery, invention, presentation, test and evolution of possible, feasible and desirable futures. The purpose of this study is to examine some important aspects of the relationship between futures studies and planning and to present a model where futures scenarios have been developed as an integral part of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) through the lens of dynamic capabilities theory and creative system theory. Design/methodology/approach Based on interpretive structural modeling and Delphi technique, the most important trends, proponents and uncertainties of the future of 10 Iranian petrochemical SMEs is identified and related innovative scenarios are presented. Findings The findings show four scenarios on the petrochemical industry including attracting investment, the presence of the private sector, attracting people's capital and sustainable development of the petrochemical industry. Originality/value The paper undertakes a first of its kind cross-disciplinary conceptual analysis to design Innovative Scenario Planning for SMEs. Despite the importance of scenario planning in SMEs, theories for understanding the nexus of entrepreneurial future studies remain underdeveloped. Therefore, there is still a theoretical gap and lack of research; hence, the current study tries to shed light on the topic and fill the gap in the entrepreneurship literature.

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