Delphi method: analysis of rounds, stakeholder and statistical indicators

foresight ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 525-544 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jhon Wilder Zartha Sossa ◽  
William Halal ◽  
Raul Hernandez Zarta
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Method ◽  
Stakeholder Participation ◽  
Citation Rate ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Policy Delphi ◽  
Technological Forecasting ◽  
Modified Delphi ◽  
Scientific Papers ◽  
Complementary Techniques

Purpose The purpose of this study is to review the literature on the Delphi method, its characteristics and current applications through an analysis of recent most-cited scientific papers, with an emphasis on three axes, namely, the number of rounds used, stakeholder participation relevance or only academic experts’ participation and the possibility of using indicators or techniques different from those related to descriptive statistics. Design/methodology/approach In total, 57 papers were initially reviewed, 10 of them with a high citation rate. Then, an analysis was made of papers in Scopus for the period 2015-2018 published in the Technological Forecasting and Social Change Journal and in the Futures and Foresight Journal, which had the characteristic of displaying quartile Q1 or Q2 in Scimago in addition to being in Scopus. Findings Among the main results, the authors observe the tendency to use fewer rounds, a higher prevalence of stakeholder participation and not only academic experts but also the use of new types of modified Delphi such as real-time spatial Delphi, Delphi group, market Delphi, real-world Delphi and policy Delphi. Originality/value Among the conclusions, the possibility of using other indicators or complementary techniques to the descriptive statistics is highlighted such as number of justifications or comments between rounds, coefficients to quantify the competence or degree of expertise of the participants, measures of the perception of the expert on the usefulness of the presented feedback, graphs of the number of arguments according to the number of questions, the Wilcoxon Ranked Pairs Test, the k means, Kolmogorov–Simonov test and the Mann–Whitney U-test.

Sustainable international tourist hotels: the role of the executive chef

2017 ◽  
Vol 29 (7) ◽  
pp. 1873-1891 ◽  
Author(s):  
Tung-Hsuan Wan ◽  
Yun-Shu Hsu ◽  
Jehn-Yih Wong ◽  
Shin-Hao Liu
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Method ◽  
Reference Value ◽  
Competency Framework ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Modified Delphi ◽  
International Tourist ◽  
Study Results ◽  
Critical Competencies ◽  
And Training ◽  
Behavioral Event

Purpose Human capital is the most important determinant of the Hospitality industry’s success. Executive chefs should be skilled in both management and culinary arts, in addition to ensuring the success of the entire hospitality division. The study aims to understand the competencies of executive chefs in international tourist hotels in Taiwan. Design/methodology/approach Literature review and behavioral event interviews were conducted with ten executive chefs and executive sous chefs. The modified Delphi method verified the results using 15 experts. Findings A competency framework was created, with four quadrants – managerial, operational, behaviors and skills – to classify executive chefs’ competencies. Each competency was further divided into sub-competencies – culinary research, emotional control, negotiation skills, job guidance and proactive thinking ability – for 25 items. Quadrants I and II are hard competencies that can be improved through education and training, whereas the third and fourth are soft competencies that require more time for development in workers. Practical implications The two-step study developed a competency framework with a practical reference value. The study results could be utilized by human resources managers during their companies’ training, recruitment, selection and promotion. Originality/value Besides the Delphi method, a deep behavioral event interview that enabled determining critical competencies was also used to collect data. The results obtained could be used to structure schools’ curricula. Collaborations between the hospitality industry and schools could help develop better curricula and training plans to maximize the availability of educational resources.

scholarly journals Exploration of constructing the catering quality indices of university canteens in China from the viewpoint of food safety

2021 ◽  
Vol 123 (13) ◽  
pp. 511-528
Author(s):  
Yugang Ji ◽  
Wen-Hwa Ko
Keyword(s):  
Food Safety ◽  
Food Quality ◽  
Delphi Method ◽  
Safety Management ◽  
Quality Indices ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Research Results ◽  
Modified Delphi Method ◽  
Modified Delphi

PurposeThis study used the literature review and the modified Delphi method to evaluate the importance of the catering quality indices of university canteens in China. In order to compile the catering quality indices of university canteens in China as reference for the subsequent improvement of Chinese canteens.Design/methodology/approachThis study first analysed literature data to establish the preliminary quality indices and used the modified Delphi method for measurement. After three rounds of Delphi analysis by 35 experts, the results of the catering quality indices of university canteens in China are summarised.FindingsThe research results show that university canteen catering quality issues are divided into six dimensions, including catering safety management, employee hygiene management, catering service, food quality, environmental atmosphere and corporate social responsibility. Catering safety management is the most important index, followed by employee hygiene management.Originality/valueThe research results can be used as suggestions for follow-up improvements in the quality of university canteens in China and a basis of reference for amendments to relevant national or local laws and regulations. The food prices, food quality and whether food hygiene and safety standards are met by university canteens are all related to the health and vital interests of the teachers and students, as well as the stability of the university. Therefore, the government should increase supervision in these aspects to avoid decline in the quality of meals due to low profits and enforce strict requirements for food safety.

scholarly journals Competency requirements for the assessment of patients with mental illness in somatic emergency care: A modified Delphi study from the nurses’ perspective

2020 ◽  
Vol 40 (3) ◽  
pp. 162-170
Author(s):  
Henrik Andersson ◽  
Jonas Carlsson ◽  
Lene Karlsson ◽  
Mats Holmberg
Keyword(s):  
Mental Illness ◽  
Emergency Care ◽  
Delphi Method ◽  
Delphi Study ◽  
Medical Knowledge ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Modified Delphi ◽  
Basic Medical Knowledge ◽  
And Training ◽  
Basic Medical

Patients suffering from mental illness are vulnerable, and they do not always have access to proper emergency care. The aim of this study was to identify competency requirements for the assessment of patients with mental illness by soliciting the views of emergency care nurses. A modified Delphi method comprising four rounds was used. Data were collected in Sweden between October 2018 and March 2019. The data were analyzed using content analysis and descriptive statistics. The panel of experts reached the highest level of consensus regarding basic medical knowledge: the capability to listen and show respect to the patient are essential competency requirements when assessing patients with mental illness in emergency care. Awareness of these competency requirements will enhance teaching and training of emergency care nurses.

scholarly journals Expert Consensus on Clinical Application of Lateral Lumbar Interbody Fusion: Results From a Modified Delphi Study

2021 ◽  
pp. 219256822110126
Author(s):  
Yong Hai ◽  
Jingwei Liu ◽  
Yuzeng Liu ◽  
Tie Liu ◽  
Xinuo Zhang ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lumbar Spine ◽  
Delphi Method ◽  
Delphi Study ◽  
Interbody Fusion ◽  
Expert Consensus ◽  
Lumbar Spine Surgery ◽  
Study Group ◽  
Lumbar Interbody Fusion ◽  
Modified Delphi ◽  
Chinese Study

Study Design: Modified Delphi study. Objective: The objective of this study was to establish expert consensus on the application of lateral lumbar interbody fusion (LLIF) by using the modified Delphi study. Methods: From June 2019 to March 2020, Members of the Chinese Study Group for Lateral Lumbar Spine Surgery were selected to collect expert feedback using the modified Delphi method where 65 spine surgeons from all over China agreed to participate. Four rounds were performed: 1 face-to-face meeting and 3 subsequent survey rounds. The consensus was achieved with ≥a 70.0% agreement for each question. The recommendation of grade A was defined as ≥90.0% of the agreement for each question. The recommendation of grade B was defined as 80.0-89.9% of the agreement for each question. The recommendation of grade C was defined as 70.0-79.9% of the agreement for each question. Results: A total of 65 experts formed a panelist group, and the number of questionnaires collected was 63, 59, and 62 in the 3 rounds. In total, 5 sections, 71 questions, and 382 items achieved consensus after the Delphi rounds including summary; preoperative evaluation; application at the lumbar spinal stenosis, lumbar disc herniation, lumbar spondylolisthesis, adult degenerative scoliosis, postoperative adjacent segmental degeneration, and revision surgery; complications; and postoperative follow-up evaluation of LLIF. Conclusion: The modified Delphi method was utilized to ascertain an expert consensus from the Chinese Study Group for Lateral Lumbar Spine Surgery to inform clinical decision-making in the application of LLIF. The salient grade A recommendations of the survey are enumerated.

Identification of public health priorities, barriers, and solutions for Kuwait using the modified Delphi method for stakeholder consensus

2021 ◽  
Author(s):  
Janvier Gasana ◽  
Harri Vainio ◽  
Joseph Longenecker ◽  
Tom Loney ◽  
Balázs Ádám ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Public Health ◽  
Delphi Method ◽  
Health Priorities ◽  
Modified Delphi Method ◽  
Modified Delphi ◽  
Stakeholder Consensus

Derivation of a procedural performance checklist for ultrasound-guided femoral arterial line placement using the modified Delphi method

2020 ◽  
Vol 21 (5) ◽  
pp. 715-722
Author(s):  
Jessica Baez ◽  
Elizabeth Powell ◽  
Megan Leo ◽  
Uwe Stolz ◽  
Lori Stolz
Keyword(s):  
Delphi Method ◽  
Competency Assessment ◽  
Arterial Line ◽  
Ultrasound Guided ◽  
Arterial Access ◽  
Modified Delphi Method ◽  
Modified Delphi ◽  
Item Checklist ◽  
Standard Quality ◽  
Femoral Arterial Access

Background: Many specialties utilize procedural performance checklists as an aid to teach residents and other learners. Procedural checklists ensure that the critical steps of the desired procedure are performed in a specified manner every time. Valid measures of competency are needed to evaluate learners and ensure a standard quality of care. The objective of this study was to employ the modified Delphi method to derive a procedural checklist for use during placement of ultrasound-guided femoral arterial access. Methods: A 27-item procedural checklist was provided to 14 experts from three acute care specialties. Using the modified Delphi method, the checklist was serially modified based on expert feedback. Results: Three rounds of the study were performed resulting in a final 23-item checklist. Each item on the checklist received at least 70% expert agreement on its inclusion in the final checklist. Conclusion: A procedural performance checklist was created for ultrasound-guided femoral arterial access using the modified Delphi method. This is an objective tool to assist procedural training and competency assessment in a variety of clinical and educational settings.

The impact of blacklists on external deposits: one size does not fit all

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Michael Jonsson ◽  
Jan Pettersson ◽  
Christian Nils Larson ◽  
Nir Artzi
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Descriptive Statistics ◽  
Comparable Data ◽  
Patriot Act ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Probable Impact ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Practical Implications ◽  
Country Specific

Purpose This study aims to measure the impact of the Non-Cooperative Countries and Territories, Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development and US PATRIOT Act Section 311 blacklists on external deposits from blacklisted jurisdictions into BIS reporting countries in 1996–2008, a period when anti-money laundering-related actions were consistently less stringent than post-2010, to see whether they had an effect even absent the threat of sizable financial fines. Design/methodology/approach The study uses descriptive statistics and bivariate and multivariate regressions to analyze the probable impact from blacklists on non-bank external deposits. The country sample is divided into offshore financial centers (OFCs) and non-OFCs and includes 158 non-listed countries. The impact of the blacklists is tested both jointly and individually for the respective blacklists. Findings The authors find mixed impact from jurisdictions being blacklisted on the growth rate of stocks of deposits into BIS reporting countries. Effects are often zero, negative in several cases and positive in some cases. This is consistent with the “stigma effect” and the “stigma paradox” in the literature. An overall impact from blacklisting is difficult to discern. Different blacklists had different effects, and the same blacklist impacted countries differently, illustrating the importance of disaggregating the analysis by individual countries. Research limitations/implications Interpretation of these data is limited by the absence of comparable data on non-resident deposits in blacklisted jurisdictions. Practical implications The impact of a blacklist depends in part on the structure of the listed jurisdictions’ economies, implying that country-specific sanctions may be more effective than blacklists. Originality/value This is one of the very few papers to date to rigorously test the impact of blacklists on external deposits.

A comparative study of urban resilience in coping with the crisis in the metropolises of Tehran and Mashhad

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Amin Nedaei ◽  
Mirali Seyednaghavi ◽  
Marzieh Firouzfar ◽  
Nahid Zamani
Keyword(s):  
Comparative Study ◽  
Delphi Method ◽  
Rockefeller Foundation ◽  
Urban Resilience ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Two Cities ◽  
The Subject ◽  
Spss Software ◽  
Resilience Indicators ◽  
First Time

Purpose In recent years, cities have been facing economic, social and environmental crises that need to be prevented and dealt with. The new subject that has been brought up to improve city resistance to crises is urban resilience. The purpose of this study is to compare the resilience of Tehran and Mashhad to identify the strengths and weaknesses of these two cities for better planning in critical situations. Design/methodology/approach The research methodology is a comparative survey. The importance of the subject was manifested through a literature review. A questionnaire is designed using “the Rockefeller Foundation and ARUP’s model” and the Delphi method for testing 21 research hypotheses to evaluate resilience in the two cities (12 Delphi questionnaires and 232 urban resilience questionnaires). The data is analyzed using independent samples t-test by SPSS software. Findings The results show that both the cities are weak in terms of resilience indicators and sub-indicators, but Mashhad is more resilient than Tehran. Originality/value This paper compares urban resilience in Iran for the first time through a comparative study between two metropolises in the country. The Delphi method also is used for the first time (in Iranian case studies) to obtain the dimensions of urban resilience. By comparing the two cities, we can better understand their strengths and weaknesses.

Analysis of sustainability insertion in materials selection courses of engineering undergraduate programmes

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeniffer Fonseca Zanitt ◽  
Izabela Simon Rampasso ◽  
Osvaldo Luiz Gonçalves Quelhas ◽  
Milena Pavan Serafim ◽  
Walter Leal Filho ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Higher Education ◽  
Sustainable Development ◽  
Content Analysis ◽  
Delphi Method ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Sustainable Development Goals ◽  
Materials Selection ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Goals ◽  
The Subject

Purpose This study aims to analyse how the materials selection courses of engineering undergraduate programmes can be better aligned with the United Nations Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs). Design/methodology/approach Initially, a content analysis was performed in 39 materials selection course descriptions from 40 engineering undergraduate programmes of Brazilian higher education institutions, and subsequently, Delphi method procedures were conducted with professors that teach or have taught the course and are knowledgeable in the subject of sustainability. Findings Considering the analysed course descriptions, it was shown that most of the materials selection courses do not consider or present little emphasis on sustainability aspects. Regarding the Delphi method, eight items were evidenced to consider sustainability aspects in the analysed courses. Originality/value This study contributes to the debates about sustainability insertion in engineering undergraduate programmes. More specifically, the findings presented consolidated information that professors and coordinators can use to align materials selection courses with the SDGs better.

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