scholarly journals Scenario-based economic and societal risk assessment of storm flooding in Shanghai

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Jin Tang ◽  
Weijiang Li ◽  
Jiayi Fang ◽  
Zhonghao Zhang ◽  
Shiqiang Du ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Spatial Patterns ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Hangzhou Bay ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
Exposed Population ◽  
Flood Exposure ◽  
Huangpu River

Purpose Quantitative and spatial-explicit flood risk information is of great importance for strengthening climate change adaptation and flood resilience. Shanghai is a coastal megacity at large estuary delta with rising flood risks. This study aims to quantify the overall economic-societal risks of storm flooding and their spatial patterns in Shanghai. Design/methodology/approach Based on multiple storm flood scenarios at different return periods, as well as fine-scale data sets including gridded GDP, gridded population and vector land-use, a probabilistic risk model incorporating geographic information system is used to assess the economic-societal risks of flooding and their spatial distributions. Findings Our results show that, from 1/200 to 1/5,000-year floods, the exposed assets will increase from USD 85.4bn to USD 657.6bn, and the direct economic losses will increase from USD 3.06bn to USD 52bn. The expected annual damage (EAD) of assets is around USD 84.36m. Hotpots of EAD are mainly distributed in the city center, the depressions along the upper Huangpu River in the southwest, the north coast of Hangzhou Bay, and the confluence of the Huangpu River and Yangtze River in the northeast. From 1/200 to 1/5,000-year floods, the exposed population will rise from 280 thousand to 2,420 thousand, and the estimated casualties will rise from 299 to 1,045. The expected annual casualties (EAC) are around 2.28. Hotspots of casualties are generally consistent with those of EAD. Originality/value In contrast to previous studies that focus on a single flood scenario or a particular type of flood exposure/risk in Shanghai, the findings contribute to an understanding of overall flood risks and their spatial patterns, which have significant implications for cost-benefit analysis of flood resilience strategies.

Bankarization in the first European cities with an equal number of Muslim and Christian inhabitants

2017 ◽  
Vol 10 (4) ◽  
pp. 554-580
Author(s):  
Miguel Ángel Pérez-Castro ◽  
Miguel Ángel Montero-Alonso ◽  
Akram Abderrahman-Azaar
Keyword(s):  
North Coast ◽  
Content Type ◽  
European Cities ◽  
The North ◽  
Financial Depth ◽  
Financial Framework ◽  
European Banks ◽  
The Mean ◽  
Different Cultures ◽  
Near Future

Purpose This paper aims to analyze the situation of the financial system in the Spanish-governed cities of Melilla and Ceuta, Christian and Muslim cities located on the north coast of Africa, and compared it with the mean bankarization level in the rest of Spain in 2000-2015. Design/methodology/approach Although different calculation methods have been proposed, most authors agree that the bankarization level of a country or a territory reflects the development of the society as a whole and has a positive correlation with economic growth. The indicators of financial depth proposed by these researchers are not only the ratio between variables such as loans, deposits, etc., but also the ratios of these variables to the population and the gross domestic product (GDP) of the country or territory. Findings The results obtained revealed that there are differences between these two North African Spanish cities. Furthermore, the financing gap between the mean bankarization levels of these cities and those of mainland Spain was found to be even larger than most of the other economic indicators (GDP per capita and the unemployment rate). Practical implications The authors are convinced that the manuscript is a contribution of great interest for serving pilot experience in cities wishing to offer a development of traditional banking and Islamic banking. The paper should be of interest to readers in the areas of finance systems and commercial banks where two different cultures coexist. Originality/value This is the first research study on the financial framework of European cities whose populations have an approximately equal percentage of Christians and Muslims. The data reflected the existence of savings and loan methods parallel to conventional banking. The conclusion was that in the near future, it would be advisable for European banks to take into account the cultural customs and religious practices of potential Muslim clients.

scholarly journals Low-Molecular-Weight Metabolites Secreted by Paenibacillus larvae as Potential Virulence Factors of American Foulbrood

2014 ◽  
Vol 80 (8) ◽  
pp. 2484-2492 ◽  
Author(s):  
Hedwig-Annabell Schild ◽  
Sebastian W. Fuchs ◽  
Helge B. Bode ◽  
Bernd Grünewald
Keyword(s):  
Molecular Weight ◽  
Virulence Factors ◽  
Gene Clusters ◽  
Paenibacillus Larvae ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Low Molecular Weight ◽  
American Foulbrood ◽  
Toxic Activity ◽  
Content Type

ABSTRACTThe spore-forming bacteriumPaenibacillus larvaecauses a severe and highly infective bee disease, American foulbrood (AFB). Despite the large economic losses induced by AFB, the virulence factors produced byP. larvaeare as yet unknown. To identify such virulence factors, we experimentally infected young, susceptible larvae of the honeybee,Apis mellifera carnica, with differentP. larvaeisolates. Honeybee larvae were rearedin vitroin 24-well plates in the laboratory after isolation from the brood comb. We identified genotype-specific differences in the etiopathology of AFB between the tested isolates ofP. larvae, which were revealed by differences in the median lethal times. Furthermore, we confirmed that extracts ofP. larvaecultures contain low-molecular-weight compounds, which are toxic to honeybee larvae. Our data indicate thatP. larvaesecretes metabolites into the medium with a potent honeybee toxic activity pointing to a novel pathogenic factor(s) ofP. larvae. Genome mining ofP. larvaesubsp.larvaeBRL-230010 led to the identification of several biosynthesis gene clusters putatively involved in natural product biosynthesis, highlighting the potential ofP. larvaeto produce such compounds.

Scenario based evaluation of a cost risk model through sensitivity analysis

2015 ◽  
Vol 22 (4) ◽  
pp. 403-423 ◽  
Author(s):  
Önder Ökmen ◽  
Ahmet Öztaş
Keyword(s):  
Risk Factors ◽  
Risk Analysis ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Practical Method ◽  
Cost Evaluation ◽  
Sensitivity Analyses ◽  
Analysis Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Detailed Evaluation ◽  
Cost Risk

Purpose – Actual costs frequently deviate from the estimated costs in either favorable or adverse direction in construction projects. Conventional cost evaluation methods do not take the uncertainty and correlation effects into account. In this regard, a simulation-based cost risk analysis model, the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model, previously has been proposed to evaluate the uncertainty effect on construction costs in case of correlated costs and correlated risk-factors. The purpose of this paper is to introduce the detailed evaluation of the Cost Risk Analysis Model through scenario and sensitivity analyses. Design/methodology/approach – The evaluation process consists of three scenarios with three sensitivity analyses in each and 28 simulations in total. During applications, the model’s important parameter called the mean proportion coefficient is modified and the user-dependent variables like the risk-factor influence degrees are changed to observe the response of the model to these modifications and to examine the indirect, two-sided and qualitative correlation capturing algorithm of the model. Monte Carlo Simulation is also applied on the same data to compare the results. Findings – The findings have shown that the Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model is capable of capturing the correlation between the costs and between the risk-factors, and operates in accordance with the theoretical expectancies. Originality/value – Correlated Cost Risk Analysis Model can be preferred as a reliable and practical method by the professionals of the construction sector thanks to its detailed evaluation introduced in this paper.

Influence of occupational heat stress on labour productivity – a case study from Chennai, India

2016 ◽  
Vol 65 (2) ◽  
pp. 245-255 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jeremiah Chinnadurai ◽  
Vidhya Venugopal ◽  
Kumaravel P ◽  
Paramesh R
Keyword(s):  
Climate Change ◽  
Heart Rate ◽  
Heat Stress ◽  
Pearson Correlation ◽  
Labour Productivity ◽  
Productivity Loss ◽  
Threshold Limit Value ◽  
Control Measures ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – Raise in temperatures due to climate change is likely to increase the heat stress in occupations that are physically exerting and performed outdoors which might potentially have adverse health and productivity consequences. The purpose of this paper is to estimate the productivities in construction work under the influence of heat stress using the predicted mean vote (PMV) index. Design/methodology/approach – Field studies were conducted during May 2014 which is summer time in Chennai. Continuous heart rate of workers and wet bulb globe temperature measurements are conducted for workers engaged in different jobs in construction. Metabolic rates and the workload of the workers from heart rate were calculated using the ISO method 8996 and the PMV values are calculated using the tool developed by Malchaire based on the method ISO 7730. Direct observations and personal interviews were conducted to substantiate the productivity estimations. Findings – The results showed that workers working outdoors with moderate and heavy workload exceeded the threshold limit value of 28°C and had adverse productivity impacts (18-35 per cent productivity loss), whereas the workers engaged in light indoor work was not affected by heat stress and consequent productivity losses. The productivity estimations using the PMV index is found to be statistically significant for three types of construction works (Pearson correlation coefficient value of −0.78) and also correlated well with the observations and self-reported productivities of the workers. Originality/value – The method used in this paper provides a scientific and reliable estimation of the productivities which may benefit the industry to set realistic project completion goals in hot weather and also implement interventions and policies to protect workers’ health. Developing adaptive strategies and implementing control measures are the need of the hour to protect worker’s health and economic losses in the face of climate change.

Tariff barriers and industrial spillover effects

2018 ◽  
Vol 22 (3) ◽  
pp. 228-246 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jong Woo Kang ◽  
Suzette Dagli
Keyword(s):  
Negative Impact ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Comparative Statics ◽  
Equilibrium Analysis ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Substitution Effects ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indirect Impact ◽  
Backward Linkages ◽  
Linkage Effects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to demonstrate that higher tariffs under protectionism will have significant indirect impact through industrial forward and backward linkages, causing greater economic losses to tariff-imposing economies than to exporting countries. Design/methodology/approach The authors use partial equilibrium analysis based on unique multi-regional input-output (IO) data in measuring the second-round spillover effects of higher tariffs, also investigating the scenario of plausible substitutability across import sources as well as sectors based on historical import intensity data. Findings Higher tariffs do not only have a direct impact, but also a significant indirect impact—through forward and backward linkages. Indirect effects can be extensive across economies and sectors—both in forward and backward linkages such as in transport—when value chains are longer and more complex. When possible substitution effects between different import sources and sectors are considered, negative forward linkage effects can be smaller, while negative backward linkage effects become more pronounced. Nevertheless, both negative effects are still found to be much bigger in indirect impacts compared with direct impacts. Research limitations/implications This implies that higher tariffs, including administrative trade measures such as anti-dumping duties and countervailing duties could ironically entail rather greater negative impact on the tariff-imposing importing economies by damaging their exports of domestic sectors using the targeted imports as intermediate inputs, which could be severe if the importing sector has a long value chain in particular through deep forward linkages. Originality/value This paper uses unique multi-regional IO data covering 45 economies’ 35 sectors in analyzing the second-round spillover effects across countries and sectors and employs comparative statics under different scenarios.

scholarly journals Immunogenicity in Swine of Orally Administered Recombinant Lactobacillus plantarum Expressing Classical Swine Fever Virus E2 Protein in Conjunction with Thymosin α-1 as an Adjuvant

2015 ◽  
Vol 81 (11) ◽  
pp. 3745-3752 ◽  
Author(s):  
Yi-Gang Xu ◽  
Xue-Ting Guan ◽  
Zhong-Mei Liu ◽  
Chang-Yong Tian ◽  
Li-Chun Cui
Keyword(s):  
Immune Responses ◽  
Lactobacillus Plantarum ◽  
Classical Swine Fever Virus ◽  
Oral Vaccine ◽  
Classical Swine Fever ◽  
Fever Virus ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
E2 Protein ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Cellular Immune

ABSTRACTClassical swine fever, caused by classical swine fever virus (CSFV), is a highly contagious disease that results in enormous economic losses in pig industries. The E2 protein is one of the main structural proteins of CSFV and is capable of inducing CSFV-neutralizing antibodies and cytotoxic T lymphocyte (CTL) activitiesin vivo. Thymosin α-1 (Tα1), an immune-modifier peptide, plays a very important role in the cellular immune response. In this study, genetically engineeredLactobacillus plantarumbacteria expressing CSFV E2 protein alone (L. plantarum/pYG-E2) and in combination with Tα1 (L. plantarum/pYG-E2-Tα1) were developed, and the immunogenicity of each as an oral vaccine to induce protective immunity against CSFV in pigs was evaluated. The results showed that recombinantL. plantarum/pYG-E2 andL. plantarum/pYG-E2-Tα1 were both able to effectively induce protective immune responses in pigs against CSFV infection by eliciting immunoglobulin A (IgA)-based mucosal, immunoglobulin G (IgG)-based humoral, and CTL-based cellular immune responses via oral vaccination. Significant differences (P< 0.05) in the levels of immune responses were observed betweenL. plantarum/pYG-E2-Tα1 andL. plantarum/pYG-E2, suggesting a better immunogenicity ofL. plantarum/pYG-E2-Tα1 as a result of the Tα1 molecular adjuvant that can enhance immune responsiveness and augment specific lymphocyte functions. Our data suggest that the recombinantLactobacillusmicroecological agent expressing CSFV E2 protein combined with Tα1 as an adjuvant provides a promising strategy for vaccine development against CSFV.

Postharvest losses of cabbages from retail to consumer and the socio-economic and environmental impacts

2016 ◽  
Vol 118 (2) ◽  
pp. 286-300 ◽  
Author(s):  
Karen Munhuweyi ◽  
Umezuruike Linus Opara ◽  
Gunnar Sigge
Keyword(s):  
Environmental Impacts ◽  
Research Effort ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Ambient Conditions ◽  
Environment Impact ◽  
Coverage Area ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Postharvest Losses ◽  
High Incidence ◽  
Parameter Approach

Purpose – The purpose of this paper is to quantify the incidence of postharvest losses of cabbage at retail purchase and during consumer simulated storage. Design/methodology/approach – Physical losses, changes in quality and nutritional value were determined using produce from three different retail outlets in South Africa. Economic losses and the environment impact associated with postharvest losses of cabbage were estimated. Findings – After seven days in storage, high incidence of postharvest losses occurred, ranging from 12 per cent under cold storage to 46 per cent under ambient conditions. These losses were equivalent to over R10 million (∼US$1 million) per annum, while the equivalent wasted fresh water was estimated to be sufficient to meet the needs of over 217,000 per annum. Research limitations/implications – Study was only conducted in one town and to get the real impact of the losses the research should cover a wider coverage area. Originality/value – Cabbage is one of the most widely consumed vegetables globally and this is the first research effort to quantify the magnitude of postharvest losses. A multi-parameter approach was applied to estimate the socio-economic and environmental impacts of losses.

Stress and productivity in workers of textile companies

2019 ◽  
Vol 23 (1) ◽  
pp. 17-29
Author(s):  
Carlos Ramos-Galarza ◽  
Pamela Acosta-Rodas
Keyword(s):  
Mental Health ◽  
Occupational Stress ◽  
Negative Impact ◽  
Psychological Intervention ◽  
Psychological Treatment ◽  
Economic Losses ◽  
Future Research ◽  
Quantitative Methodology ◽  
Textile Production ◽  
Content Type

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the relationship between two psychological factors which are occupation stress and productivity, that influence workers immerse into textile production labor context. Design/methodology/approach This study has a quantitative methodology, is cross-sectional, nonexperimental and with an explicative scope. Findings The results of this research allow to identify that occupational stress levels cause a negative impact on worker’s productivity in the textile production area. Research limitations/implications There are two limitations in this study, first is the participant’s subjectivity when filling the questionnaires because it was self-reported and the second limitation is that the sample is specifically from a city of a South American country. Practical implications The results of this investigation show as an evidence the need for psychological intervention within companies for occupational stress, because it will impact in a negative way the textile production of a company, which will guide future research making possible to develop and apply psychological treatment programs pro employee’s mental health. Social implications A textile company with low productivity will bring strong economic losses and even bankruptcy, although, thanks to this study it was possible to identify that occupational stress will have a negative impact in productivity, drawing an important based line to future research, looking to improve worker’s performance and hence, companies’ profits contributing to social economic processes. Originality/value In general, companies of textile industry (as many others from capitalist economic system), make substantial investments in technology instruments, specialized workers, machines’ maintenance and reparation, marketing, etc. to improve their production standards, however, there is a low investment on worker’s mental health, as it has been found in this study it generates a strong negative impact on its productivity.

A levee breach induced by internal erosion in Western Australia.

2021 ◽  
pp. qjegh2021-037
Author(s):  
Scott Davidson ◽  
Paul Baker
Keyword(s):  
Western Australia ◽  
Internal Erosion ◽  
North Coast ◽  
Sandy Gravel ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The North ◽  
Levee Breach ◽  
Piping Erosion ◽  
A Site

This case study presents a levee breach induced by piping erosion under cyclonic conditions in 2019. The levee is a 2.5 m high, 500 m long, mass earth fill embankment; with no cut-off trench, core, or ancillary structures. Located near Port Hedland on the north coast of Western Australia; its purpose is diversionary, to redirect cyclonic surface water away from the nearby Great Northern Highway. The levee was founded directly on Alluvium in 1987; and formed of locally sourced clayey sandy gravel. In 2003, the levee was partially excavated to enable the placement of a buried pipeline through the levee.Following a cyclonic event in 2019, a 27 m length of the levee breached, resulting in significant scour of the foundation and downstream soil. A site visit and investigation were conducted shortly thereafter, where in situ testing and laboratory soil tests on the levee and foundation materials were conducted.Analysis of the site observations and laboratory testing data led to the probable failure mechanism being theorised as having been initiated within the foundation by piping erosion within sand-rich beds of Alluvium. The large quantity of water ponding upstream of the levee then caused a progressive washout and breach of the levee.Thematic collection: This article is part of the Role of water in destabilizing slopes collection available at: https://www.lyellcollection.org/cc/Role-of-water-in-destabilizing-slopes

Analysis of risk spillover effect of copper option in China

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Wuyi Ye ◽  
Yiqi Wang ◽  
Jinhai Zhao
Keyword(s):  
Value At Risk ◽  
Risk Model ◽  
Spillover Effect ◽  
Spillover Effects ◽  
Futures Market ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Conditional Autoregressive ◽  
Derivative Markets ◽  
The Impact ◽  
Risk Spillover Effects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to compare the changes in the risk spillover effects between the copper spot and futures markets before and after the issuance of copper options, analyze the risk spillover effects between the three markets after the issuance of the options and can provide effective suggestions for regulators and investors who hedge risks. Design/methodology/approach The MV-CAViaR model is an extended form of the vector autoregressive model (VAR) to the quantile model, and it is also a special form of the MVMQ-CAViaR model. Based on the VAR quantile model, this model has undergone continuous promotion of the Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (CAViaR) and the Multi-quantile Conditional Autoregressive Value-at-Risk Model (MQ-CAViaR), and finally got the current form of the model. Findings The issuance of options has led to certain changes in the risk spillover effect between the copper spot and its derivative markets, and the risk aggregation effect in the futures market has always been significant. Therefore, when supervising the copper product market and investors using copper derivatives to avoid market risks, they need to pay attention to the impact of futures on the spot market, the impact of options on the futures market and the risk spillover effects of spot and futures on the options market. Practical implications The empirical results of this paper can be used to hedge market risk investment strategies, and the changes in market relationships also provide an effective basis for the supervision of the copper product market by the supervisory authority. Originality/value It is the first literature research to discuss the risk and the impact of spillover effects of copper options on China copper market and its derivative markets. The MV-CAViaR model can capture the mutual risk influence between markets by modeling multiple markets simultaneously.

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