Analyzing Road Transport (Passenger and Freight) Demand in Pakistan with Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag Co-Integration Approach

Author(s):  
Muhammad Zamir Khan

Understanding the determinants of transport demand is crucial in making effective transport and environmental policies. In that context, the present study provides an empirical analysis of both road passenger and freight transport demand in Pakistan, using annual time series data from 1980 to 2016. The auto-regressive distributed lag bounds testing approach of co-integration is employed to estimate the short- and long-run elasticities. The empirical results show that fuel price, per-capita income, urbanization and road density are important determinants of road passenger transport demand in Pakistan. Similarly, fuel price, industrial production and international trade are the main drivers of road freight transport demand. In general, long-run elasticities are greater than short-run elasticities. Moreover, the long-run fuel price elasticities of passenger and freight transport demand are –0.044 and –0.784, respectively, implying that policy instruments (raising fuel taxes) are relatively less effective in controlling the future road transport demand and associated environment problems. The results based on short-run error correction models indicate that passenger transport demand adjusts about 75% in the first year to achieve its long-run equilibrium, while that of freight demand adjusts toward long-run equilibrium at a relatively slower rate, with about 16% of error correction taking place in the following year to reach long-run equilibrium.


Author(s):  
Vedat Yorucu

Purpose – The purpose of this study is to analyze the determinants of changes in carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions for Turkey by utilizing the autoregressive distributed lag approach to investigate the long-run equilibrium relationships of CO2 emissions between foreign tourist arrivals (FTAs) and electricity consumption (ELC). The results reveal that foreign tourists and ELC are significant determinants of a long-run equilibrium relationship with CO2 emissions from electricity and heat production and CO2 emissions from transport for Turkey, respectively. The results of the conditional error correction models (CECM) confirm that there are long-run causal relationships from the growing number of foreign tourist arrivals and the increase of ELC toward the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. The results of autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) error correction models for CO2 emissions also validate significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in the short run. Design/methodology/approach – ARDL modeling and Bounds test approach were used in this study. Findings – Rapid tourism development in Turkey has triggered CO2 emissions. The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey threatens sustainability. The hypothesis of “The growth of CO2 emissions in Turkey” is validated. Tourist arrivals, ELC and CO2 emissions are co-integrated. CECMs confirm the growth of CO2 emissions during 1960-2010. ARDL modeling shows significant relationships between CO2 emissions and other variables. Originality/value – Results of ARDL error correction models for CO2 emissions validate the hypothesis that there are significant dynamic relationships between CO2 emissions, ELC and tourist arrivals in Turkey for the short run.



Author(s):  
Okere Peter.A ◽  
Okere, Cletus O ◽  
Nwaneto Ugonma

This study investigated the effects of bank credits on the manufacturing sector output in Nigeria from 1981-2018. The data for this study were sourced from Central Bank of Nigeria (CBN) statistical bulletin. The study adopted the Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bound cointegration test approach and error correction. In the bound test following the ARDL, it investigated that the variables of interest put in the model are bound together in the long-run and error correction term displayed a negative and statistically significant. The negative value shows that there exists an modification speed from short-run disequilibrium towards the long-run balance. Given the error correction instrument outcome, the study revealed that bank credits exhibited a optimistic and significant relationship with the presentation of manufacturing sector in Nigeria. The study therefore recommends that policies geared towards deepening the financial sector and enhancing the healthy and soundness of banks should be vigorously pursued. Also the Central Bank of Nigeria should as a matter of urgency review downwards the lending interest rate in view of this COVID-19 pandemic threatening the whole world.



2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (8) ◽  
pp. 350
Author(s):  
Odunayo Olarewaju ◽  
Thabiso Msomi

This study analyses the long- and short-term dynamics of the determinants of insurance penetration for the period 1999Q1 to 2019Q4 in 15 West African countries. The panel auto regressive distributed lag model was used on the quarterly data gathered. A cointegrating and short-run momentous connection was discovered between insurance penetration along with the independent variables, which were education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income. The error correction term’s significance and negative sign demonstrate that all variables are heading towards long-run equilibrium at a moderate speed of 56.4%. This further affirms that education, productivity, dependency, inflation and income determine insurance penetration in West Africa in the long run. In addition, the short-run causality revealed that all the pairs of regressors could jointly cause insurance penetration. The findings of this study recommend that the economy-wide policies by the government and the regulators of insurance markets in these economies should be informed by these significant factors. The restructuring of the education sector to ensure finance-related modules cut across every faculty in the higher education sector is also recommended. Furthermore, Bancassurance is also recommended to boost the easy penetration of the insurance sector using the relationship with the banking sector as a pathway.



2020 ◽  
Author(s):  
Nenavath Sre ◽  
Suresh Naik

Abstract The paper investigates the effect of exchange and inflation rate on stock market returns in India. The study uses monthly, quarterly and annual inflation and exchange rate data obtained from the RBI and market returns computed from the Indian share market index from January, 2000 to June, 2020.The paper uses the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) co-integration technique and the error correction parametization of the ARDL model for investigating the effect on Indian Stock markets. The GARCH and its corresponding Error Correction Model (ECM) were used to explore the long- and short-run relationship between the India Stock market returns, inflation, and exchange rate. The paper shows that there exists a long term relationship but there is no short-run relationship between Indian market returns and inflation. But, there is periodicity of inflation monthly considerable long run and short-run relationship between them existed. The outcome also illustrates a significant short-run relationship between NSE market returns and exchange rate. The variables were tested for short run and it was significantly shown the positive effects on the stock market returns and making it a desirable attribute of which investors can take advantage of. This is due to the establishment of long-run effect of inflation and exchange rate on stock market returns.



2019 ◽  
pp. 097215091987930 ◽  
Author(s):  
Noman Arshed ◽  
Muhammad Shahid Hassan ◽  
Muhammad Umair Khan ◽  
Arslan Arif Uppal

A well-oiled logistics sector physically moves the economy towards higher growth. A developed logistics infrastructure facilitates backward and forward linkages in global trade and manages the business cost of accessing markets. Logistics sector facilitates sectorwise growth in a way that it eases goods transmissions mechanisms. This study has assessed four indices of logistics which are road, rail, air and sea transport by forming indices using 13 indicators. Auto regressive distributed lag (ARDL)bound approach-based long-run results show that, for the case of Pakistan, development in the road transport has highest potential in growth productivity of agriculture and services sector, while sea transport performed best in industrial sector.



2017 ◽  
Author(s):  
◽  
Jongyeol Yoon

The objective of this dissertation is to examine efficient price transmission mechanism and efficient supply system in livestock sectors. The first essay investigates market integration and spatial price transmission in beef trade among the TPP countries (Australia, United States, Canada, New Zealand, and Japan) by using monthly beef prices. The estimates of the magnitude and the short-run speed of adjustment for one price to the shocks of another between two countries is useful information in assessing how well change in one price is transmitted to another and what types of price transmission (symmetry or asymmetry) occur in beef trade. This helps to identify the existence of potential market inefficiencies that result from asymmetric adjustment and which country leads the price relationship in beef trade. For this purpose, Engle-Granger and Johansen co-integration tests are conducted. In addition, threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model, and asymmetric (or symmetric) error correction model (ECM) are estimated to examine the patterns of price adjustment. The findings indicate that the all pairs of prices are found to be statistically significant for the co-integration test. This suggests that there a long-run equilibrium relationship between pairs of price series and the various types of beef traded by the TPP countries are likely to be substituted for each other in each market. In addition, the results of the TAR and M-TAR models provide sufficient empirical evidence in support of asymmetric pricing behavior in beef trade among the TPP countries, mostly showing that the rate of adjustment to negative shocks to long-run equilibrium tends to occur more rapidly than that for the positive price shocks among the TPP countries. To examine the short-run dynamic of beef trade among the TPP countries, two types of the ECM are estimated. The estimates of the error correction terms indicate that the response of one price depends on either positive shocks or negative shocks in another price among the bilateral relationships analyzed, and they show different speeds of adjustment to the long-run equilibrium and different price leadership, respectively. The asymmetric pattern of price adjustment may attribute to product differentiation through different feeding methods, trade policy, and market concentration in each country. Due to these factors, relatively slow speed of price adjustment to the equilibrium can cause potential losses to market participants in each market, and therefore it should be corrected in order to improve market efficiency in beef trade among the TPP countries. The second essay aims to investigate asymmetric supply response of cattle, hog, and chicken in the U.S. This concern can be described in the context of structural change of U.S. meat markets. That is, the move to larger operations that have resulted from the economies of scale that exist in many of these sectors today results in an inability to adjust to low prices because of the high capital outlays associated with the large facilities yet these same economies of scale allow for quick expansion in periods of high prices. For this purpose, the threshold autoregressive (TAR) model and momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) model are performed. The empirical results of the M-TAR model suggests that there is the evidence in support of the presence of asymmetric supply of hog and chicken. In contrast, the M-TAR model supports symmetric supply response for cattle. Only the finding for hog industry is consistent with the a priori expectation that the positive deviation from the long-run equilibrium created by the producers' expectation of high profitability may tend to quickly adjust to a new equilibrium while the negative discrepancy created by the producers' expectation of low profitability tends to persist. Overall, the empirical results suggest that there is evidence in support of symmetric supply response for cattle industry, while there is the presence of asymmetric supply response for hog and chicken industry. These findings imply that the recent structural change in cattle industry contribute to improving the production efficiency for cattle, but in hog and chicken industry, there might exist potential production inefficiencies. The purpose of third essay is to examine asymmetric price transmission in the U.S. pork market. The motivation of this study is found in the structural change in the U.S. pork market that is characterized by more extensive and intensive operations, consolidation of the small and medium scale producers, and the many mergers and acquisitions of meat packers and retailers. In consideration of the various stages of the market linked primarily by price mechanisms, the degree and the speed of adjustment to which prices are transmitted in the marketing chain can play a role in understanding how price transmission works in terms of market efficiency and in assessing direction and distribution of welfare effects in a normative fashion. For this purpose, threshold co-integration analysis is applied by allowing for asymmetric pattern of price adjustment towards a long-run equilibrium in the price relationship between farm and wholesale, and retail levels. The asymmetric error correction model is specified to estimate the short-run adjustment speed of price response towards a long-run steady state. The empirical findings suggest that there might be asymmetric price adjustment in the U.S. pork market while its pattern appears to be different across marketing channels. That is, the response of wholesalers tends to be quicker to increases in producer price (i.e., margin squeezing) than to decreases in producer prices (i.e., margin stretching), while wholesale prices respond more quickly to decreases in retail prices. These may be generally understood in the presence of non-competitive pricing behavior of agents at a certain chain beyond farm gate. Such findings imply that the recent structural changes in the U.S. pork market may hinder efficient price transmission mechanism across the marketing channels.



2019 ◽  
Vol IV (IV) ◽  
pp. 381-387
Author(s):  
Muhammad Awais ◽  
Nazima Ellahi ◽  
Ahmed Sher

International migrant remittances are possibly the largest source of external finance in developing countries and this inflow have has considerable importance in the development of the financial sector. The present study aimed to analyze the link between workers remittances and development of the financial sector in the context of Pakistan. To carry out this empirical analysis, the study utilized a data set of annual frequency ranging from 1980 to 2015 (post-liberalization period). The econometric methodology of Auto-Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) has been used to get the short-run and long-run elasticities of the model. Overall findings suggested that there is a strong positive link between the inflow of remittances and the development of the financial sector in the context of Pakistan.



2016 ◽  
Vol I (I) ◽  
pp. 1-12
Author(s):  
Mehmood Kakar ◽  
Adiqa Kiani ◽  
Asia Baig

This article examines the determinants of the total productivity of the agriculture sector which enhances the total agricultural productivity in Pakistan and analyzes the relations among variables used for the analysis from 1990 - 2017. The application of the auto regressive distributed lag technique ARDL was used to approximate various determinants. The area under cultivation, fertilizer consumption, agriculture credit, and rainfall show a positive effect on agriculture productivity, whereas agriculture employment and pesticide consumption show a positive but statistically insignificant effect on agricultural productivity in the long run. While in the short-run all determinants have a positive and significant effect on total agriculture productivity convergence towards equilibrium is shown by error correction term is 0.829.



2017 ◽  
Vol 3 (2) ◽  
pp. 101-110
Author(s):  
Hina Ali ◽  
Hira Tahir

Purpose: This study aims to raise the trouble of adjustment the price of capital input in Pakistan. The data that is take to estimate the analysis is time series which span over from 1974 to 2014. Yield, gross domestic product, exchange rate, land, price of capital, agriculture employment, agriculture imports and exports are variables that use in this study. Econometric technique of auto-regressive distributed lag (ardl) to co-integration approach are applied apply to estimate the long run and short run relationship among variables. Conclusion of this study shows that yield and price of capital are negative and insignificant both in short and long run.



2012 ◽  
Vol 19 (1) ◽  
pp. 61-77
Author(s):  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mohammad Mafizur Rahman

The article aims to investigate the impact of nominal devaluation on income distribution in Bangladesh both in short and long runs. In doing so, Auto Regressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) bounds testing has been employed for cointegration, and Error Correction Model (ECM) has been used for short-run dynamics. The empirical psychology has confirmed the existence of long-run relationship between the variables. Furthermore our estimated results reveal that nominal devaluation tends to decrease income inequality. Though economic growth appears to improve income distribution, non-linear link between both the variables, however, depicts Kuznets’ inverted-U curve (1955). Financial development causes further deterioration in income distribution. Trade openness contributes to income inequality as discussed in Leontief Paradox.



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