Effectiveness of investing in flood protection in metropolitan areas: lessons from 2019 Typhoon Hagibis in Japan

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Mikio Ishiwatari
Keyword(s):  
Flood Control ◽  
Water Levels ◽  
Flood Protection ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Flood Risks ◽  
Protection Systems ◽  
Flood Protection System ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This study aims to demonstrate the effectiveness of investment in flood protection by analyzing the flood disaster caused by Typhoon Hagibis in Japan in October 2019. The typhoon severely damaged the central and eastern Japan regions and threatened the Greater Tokyo area. Design/methodology/approach The paper examines flood risks in the Greater Tokyo area and reviews how the flood protection systems functioned to protect Tokyo from the typhoon. The hydrological data of rainfall and water levels at major rivers and the operation records of flood control facilities are collected and analyzed. Findings The study’s major finding is that the flood protection system succeeded in protecting the Greater Tokyo area from flooding. Typhoon Hagibis maintained its power until landing because of climate change and caused record-breaking rainfall. In a worst-case scenario, thousands of people could have died and hundreds of billions USD worth of assets could have been lost in Tokyo. Practical implications The paper describes the actual effects of the flood protection systems, consisting of dams constructed upstream, reservoirs midstream and diversion channels downstream. Thus, this study’s findings directly relate to practical implications for other countries and cities, which face flood risks under a changing climate. Originality/value The paper highlights the importance of investing in flood protection by examining actual disasters and providing detailed descriptions of flood protection systems.

Road to default: Tracoma holding Berhad Bai Bithaman Ajil Debt securities (BaIDS)

2015 ◽  
Vol 5 (5) ◽  
pp. 1-6
Author(s):  
A.M. Hafizi ◽  
Shahida Shahimi ◽  
Mohd Hafizuddin Syah Bangaan Abdullah ◽  
M. Badrul Hakimi Daud
Keyword(s):  
Learning Outcomes ◽  
Capital Market ◽  
Credit Rating ◽  
Subject Area ◽  
Capital Requirements ◽  
Fund Raising ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Analytical Skills

Subject area Islamic Finance and Investment Study level/applicability Level of program/audience: Advanced undergraduate and postgraduate. Courses Intermediate and Advanced Finance, Economics, Islamic Economics & Finance, Islamic Banking & Finance, Islamic Capital Market and other relevant courses. Specifictopics/syllabus Capital markets instruments, conventional or Islamic. Case overview This case focuses on Tracoma Holding Berhad Bai Bithaman Ajil Debt Securities (BaIDS) amounting to RM 100 million which was issued by Tracoma Holding Berhad in 2005. It was the first issuance of a sukuk (Islamic debt securities or bond) by the company. The proceeds were used to finance its growth and to repay existing bank borrowings and capital requirements. This case is interesting, as it allows students to study the bai bithaman ajil sukuk structure and issuance process in the Malaysian capital market. It also provides basic financial transaction and credit rating of sukuk which requires analytical skills. Being a debt-based facility, the sukuk was subjected to credit rating evaluation by the MARC, the rating agency appointed by the company. Further downgrading of the sukuk meant it would lead to the worst-case scenario. Some actions needed to be taken to solve this issue; therefore, the CFO suggested an urgent meeting with the sukuk holders. Expected learning outcomes The students should be able to: understand the issuance process and the principle of BBA (bai bithamin ajil) in sukuk structure; understand reason(s) methods of fund raising by firm and the allocations of fund; understand the sukuk default issue; analyze the reasons for sukuk default; understand the importance of debt securities credit ratings; and identify investors' protection in the case of sukuk default. Supplementary materials Teaching notes are available for educators only. Please contact your library to gain login details or email [email protected] to request teaching notes.

scholarly journals Worst-case analysis of electronic circuits based on an analytic forward solver approach

2019 ◽  
Vol 38 (5) ◽  
pp. 1655-1666
Author(s):  
Mario Schenk ◽  
Annette Muetze ◽  
Klaus Krischan ◽  
Christian Magele
Keyword(s):  
Linear Models ◽  
Piecewise Linear ◽  
Quadratic Program ◽  
Worst Case Analysis ◽  
State Equations ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Sqp Method ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Worst Case Scenario

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to evaluate the worst-case behavior of a given electronic circuit by varying the values of the components in a meaningful way in order not to exceed pre-defined currents or voltages limits during a transient operation. Design/methodology/approach An analytic formulation is used to identify the time-dependent solution of voltages or currents using proper state equations in closed form. Circuits with linear elements can be described by a system of differential equations, while circuits composing nonlinear elements are described by piecewise-linear models. A sequential quadratic program (SQP) is used to find the worst-case scenario. Findings It is found that the worst-case scenario can be obtained with as few solutions to the forward problem as possible by applying an SQP method. Originality/value The SQP method in combination with the analytic forward solver approach shows that the worst-case limit converges in a few steps even if the worst-case limit is not on the boundary of the parameters.

scholarly journals A benchmark modelling for participation-based tax increment financing

2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (2) ◽  
pp. 253-264
Author(s):  
Yusuf Varli ◽  
Gokhan Ovenc
Keyword(s):  
Interest Rate ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Stochastic Modelling ◽  
Base Case ◽  
Tax Increment Financing ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Base Case Scenario ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The Interest Rate ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to present the theoretical and conceptual framework of a new method in public finance called “participation based tax increment financing (P-TIF)” by combining conventional tax increment financing (TIF) within the Sharīʿah-compliance structure. Design/methodology/approach This study develops a benchmark model for P-TIF, which offers a participative contract between both lender and borrower. With the help of this model, a financing schema in P-TIF is established by incorporating stochastic modelling. Possible implications and alternative options of application are also explored with a discussion of challenges. Findings The results mainly indicate that P-TIF promises lenders to be a part of increment from tax earnings, in return for a reduced interest rate. They show how a rise in participation of the lender in a given contract lowers the interest rate. Under the base case scenario, the interest rate is reduced to zero when the participation of the lender in tax increment is set at 50%. Practical implications With the feature of being interest-free, P-TIF can be implied also within the Sharīʿah-compliance framework, thanks to the model it is based on. Additionally, as the model in this paper is parametric, it can be applicable to various cases in Islamic finance. Originality/value To the best of our knowledge, this is the first paper in the literature in the sense that it provides a conceptual idea and respective model for TIF method within a Sharīʿah-compliance framework.

scholarly journals Floodwater Utilization Based on Reservoir Pre-Release Strategy Considering the Worst-Case Scenario

Water ◽  
2020 ◽  
Vol 12 (3) ◽  
pp. 892 ◽  
Author(s):  
Lijuan Hua ◽  
Xinyu Wan ◽  
Xianhui Wang ◽  
Fangzheng Zhao ◽  
Ping’an Zhong ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Lead Time ◽  
Flood Control ◽  
Control Method ◽  
Dynamic Control ◽  
Dry Period ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Release Process ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Huai River

Utilizing floodwater resources is important in relieving water shortages, and dynamic control of the flood limited water level (FLWL) for reservoir operation in a flood season is an effective method to achieve this objective. Based on the capacity-constrained pre-release method, this study proposed an improved dynamic control method that considered the duration of dry periods and the lead time of flood forecasts. The pre-release process was divided into two periods: water use and flood control. Taking Xianghongdian Reservoir in the Huai River Basin of China as an example, this study analyzed the statistical laws of continuous dry periods and effective flood forecast lead times and compared the effects of the negative exponential and asymptotic regression models in fitting the dry period distribution. We also calculated the floodwater volume over the FLWL in different situations and evaluated the flood control risks in a worst-case scenario. Statistical law of the dry period duration showed obvious negative index distribution characteristics; the relationship between increased water storage, dry period, and lead time can provide support for the operation decisions of the reservoir. The method did not increase the flood control risk under worst-case scenarios, and it can be used to effectively utilize reservoir floodwater resources.

Burundi faces complex succession battle

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Presidential Candidate ◽  
Main Question ◽  
Major Theme ◽  
Political Climate ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
National Elections ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Worst Case Scenario ◽  
Constitutional Revision

Subject Succession politics ahead of Burundi's 2020 election. Significance With national elections approaching in May 2020 -- the first since President Pierre Nkurunziza ran for a controversial third term in 2015, plunging the country into crisis -- the main question facing Burundi is whether he will insist on a fourth mandate (made possible by a 2018 constitutional revision) or accept someone else as his party’s presidential candidate. Nkurunziza is giving away few clues, but whichever way he turns will be fraught with difficulties. Impacts In a worst-case scenario, the succession battle could lead to violence and political assassinations. Ethnicity has gradually disappeared as a major theme in Burundian politics but could resurface amid rising political polarisation. The precarious political climate around the election will increase the risks of regional spillover.

scholarly journals Optimization and Evaluation of Piperacillin-Tobramycin Combination Dosage Regimens againstPseudomonas aeruginosafor Patients with Altered Pharmacokinetics via the Hollow-Fiber Infection Model and Mechanism-Based Modeling

2018 ◽  
Vol 62 (5) ◽  
Author(s):  
Rajbharan Yadav ◽  
Kate E. Rogers ◽  
Phillip J. Bergen ◽  
Jürgen B. Bulitta ◽  
Carl M. J. Kirkpatrick ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Critically Ill ◽  
Hollow Fiber ◽  
Critically Ill Patient ◽  
Infection Model ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Bacterial Killing ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Dosage Regimens ◽  
Time Kill

ABSTRACTAugmented renal clearance (ARC) in critically ill patients can result in suboptimal drug exposures and treatment failure. Combination dosage regimens accounting for ARC have never been optimized and evaluated againstPseudomonas aeruginosaby use of the hollow-fiber infection model (HFIM). Using aP. aeruginosaisolate from a critically ill patient and static-concentration time-kill experiments (SCTKs), we studied clinically relevant piperacillin and tobramycin concentrations, alone and in combinations, against two inocula (105.8and 107.6CFU/ml) over 72 h. We subsequently evaluated the effects of optimized piperacillin (4 g every 4 h [q4h], given as 0.5-h infusions) plus tobramycin (5 mg/kg of body weight q24h, 7 mg/kg q24h, or 10 mg/kg q48h, given as 0.5-h infusions) regimens on killing and regrowth in the HFIM, simulating a creatinine clearance of 250 ml/min. Mechanism-based modeling was performed in S-ADAPT. In SCTKs, piperacillin plus tobramycin (except combinations with 8 mg/liter tobramycin and against the low inoculum) achieved synergistic killing (≥2 log10versus the most active monotherapy at 48 h and 72 h) and prevented regrowth. Piperacillin monotherapy (4 g q4h) in the HFIM provided 2.4-log10initial killing followed by regrowth at 24 h and resistance emergence. Tobramycin monotherapies displayed rapid initial killing (≥5 log10at 13 h) followed by extensive regrowth. As predicted by mechanism-based modeling, the piperacillin plus tobramycin dosage regimens were synergistic and provided ≥5-log10killing with resistance suppression over 8 days in the HFIM. Optimized piperacillin-tobramycin regimens provided significant bacterial killing and suppressed resistance emergence. These regimens appear to be highly promising for effective and early treatment, even in the near-worst-case scenario of ARC.

Huthi crisis will weaken central government in Yemen

2015 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Saudi Arabia ◽  
Civil War ◽  
High Risk ◽  
Central Government ◽  
Failed State ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
International Support ◽  
Wide Scale

Significance The situation in Yemen has deteriorated rapidly after January's takeover of central government by the northern rebel group Ansar Allah, also known as the Huthi movement, and the subsequent resignations of Hadi and Bahah. With tribes and local groups in Sunni-majority areas preparing to resist the Huthi coup, Yemen faces a high risk of wide-scale conflict that could lead towards civil war and failed state status. Impacts In a worst-case scenario, violence would escalate into civil war that assumes a sectarian character and draws in Iran and Saudi Arabia. Al-Qaida will seek to capitalise on the vacuum, increasing attacks on the Huthis to position itself as the defender of Sunni Islam. The Southern Movement would push for secession while other regions could also try to break from Sana'a's control. Foreign powers have limited leverage influence over the Huthis and thus also over the outcome of negotiations. The Huthis may moderate their position due to Yemen's fragile economy, which depends on substantial international support.

China positions itself to exploit 'America First'

2017 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
South China Sea ◽  
South China ◽  
North Korea ◽  
The South China Sea ◽  
Strategic Partnership ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
China Policy ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
The One

Significance Trump affirmed US commitment to the 'one-China policy' vis-à-vis Taiwan, which he had questioned following his election. Nevertheless, Trump's willingness to raise the issue in the first place -- and his other post-election comments on North Korea and the South China Sea -- lead Beijing to expect an unprecedentedly rocky relationship with Washington during his term. Impacts Trump seems now to accept that questioning the one-China policy is taboo, but he could still provoke Beijing regarding Tibet. The combination of uncertain US policy and a China-sceptic government in Taipei will prompt Chinese preparations for a worst-case scenario. US-Russia rapprochement could complicate Beijing's strategic partnership with Moscow. Other governments stand to benefit from a Chinese 'charm offensive', as Beijing attempts to win friends rather than confront Washington.

Central Mali will face rising intercommunal tensions

2019 ◽  
Keyword(s):  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Public And Private ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Worst Case Scenario

Subject Ethnic and jihadist violence in central Mali. Significance Mali in 2018 faced by far the highest levels of violence it has seen since the 2012 Tuareg rebellion. More than half of conflict-related deaths occurred in central Mali -- notably in Mopti Region -- where related strands of jihadist and intercommunal violence have created a complex set of conflict dynamics. Impacts The recent (likely) killing of jihadist Amadou Kouffa could lead to more violence if his fighters fragment or would-be successors compete. The government’s domestic legitimacy will likely erode further, especially among ethnic Fulani, as its neutrality is called into question. Fulani will face rising suspicion throughout the Sahel, aggravating tensions in western Niger and other emerging hotspots. Though possible rather than probable, a worst-case scenario could see violence spread into Mali’s three southernmost regions. Displacement from Mopti to Bamako and elsewhere could place strains on public and private resources.

scholarly journals Future scenarios for management education

2014 ◽  
Vol 33 (5) ◽  
pp. 503-519 ◽  
Author(s):  
Howard Thomas ◽  
Michelle Lee ◽  
Alexander Wilson
Keyword(s):  
Online Courses ◽  
Management Education ◽  
Business Schools ◽  
Strategic Responses ◽  
Leadership Positions ◽  
Case Scenario ◽  
Worst Case ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Strategic Value ◽  
Depth Interviews

Purpose – Business schools are facing unprecedented challenges, ranging from financial sustainability in some quarters to waning demand for the MBA to the potentially disruptive impact of massive open online courses. Given these challenges, how might the future of management education unfold? The purpose of this paper is to better understand how leaders in management education perceive these challenges and their likely impact on the evolution of the field. Design/methodology/approach – The authors conducted in-depth interviews with 39 experts, the majority of who were in leadership positions at business schools. Each of these in-depth interviews was tape-recorded, transcribed and then content-analysed. Findings – The authors asked the panel of experts for their insights on what they perceive to be the most likely, best-case, and worst-case scenarios in the next ten years. The modal response for the most likely scenario was one where intense competition pushes schools to specialise and better differentiate their offerings, as they attempt to strengthen their position in the market. The best-case scenario was one where schools move closer to the practice, in an attempt to regain relevance and legitimacy. Finally, the experts described the worst-case scenario as a situation where management education as a whole fails to respond to the criticisms and challenges, leading the field down the path of greater and greater irrelevance. Originality/value – The insights gained from this research can be of strategic value to administrators and those in leadership positions in business schools who wish to anticipate shifts in the management education landscape and strategic responses of peer schools.

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