Reducing complexity in multivariate electricity price forecasting

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Hendrik Kohrs ◽  
Benjamin Rainer Auer ◽  
Frank Schuhmacher
Keyword(s):  
Electricity Market ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Variable Importance ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Forecast Combination ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Electricity Price Forecasting ◽  
Bayesian Shrinkage ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Purpose In short-term forecasting of day-ahead electricity prices, incorporating intraday dependencies is vital for accurate predictions. However, it quickly leads to dimensionality problems, i.e. ill-defined models with too many parameters, which require an adequate remedy. This study addresses this issue. Design/methodology/approach In an application for the German/Austrian market, this study derives variable importance scores from a random forest algorithm, feeds the identified variables into a support vector machine and compares the resulting forecasting technique to other approaches (such as dynamic factor models, penalized regressions or Bayesian shrinkage) that are commonly used to resolve dimensionality problems. Findings This study develops full importance profiles stating which hours of which past days have the highest predictive power for specific hours in the future. Using the profile information in the forecasting setup leads to very promising results compared to the alternatives. Furthermore, the importance profiles provide a possible explanation why some forecasting methods are more accurate for certain hours of the day than others. They also help to explain why simple forecast combination schemes tend to outperform the full battery of models considered in the comprehensive comparative study. Originality/value With the information contained in the variable importance scores and the results of the extensive model comparison, this study essentially provides guidelines for variable and model selection in future electricity market research.

scholarly journals Neural Network Based Model Comparison for Intraday Electricity Price Forecasting

Energies ◽  
2019 ◽  
Vol 12 (23) ◽  
pp. 4557 ◽  
Author(s):  
Ilkay Oksuz ◽  
Umut Ugurlu
Keyword(s):  
Neural Networks ◽  
Electricity Markets ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Network Architecture ◽  
Model Comparison ◽  
Market Price ◽  
Absolute Error ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Electricity Price Forecasting

The intraday electricity markets are continuous trade platforms for each hour of the day and have specific characteristics. These markets have shown an increasing number of transactions due to the requirement of close to delivery electricity trade. Recently, intraday electricity price market research has seen a rapid increase in a number of works for price prediction. However, most of these works focus on the features and descriptive statistics of the intraday electricity markets and overlook the comparison of different available models. In this paper, we compare a variety of methods including neural networks to predict intraday electricity market prices in Turkish intraday market. The recurrent neural networks methods outperform the classical methods. Furthermore, gated recurrent unit network architecture achieves the best results with a mean absolute error of 0.978 and a root mean square error of 1.302. Moreover, our results indicate that day-ahead market price of the corresponding hour is a key feature for intraday price forecasting and estimating spread values with day-ahead prices proves to be a more efficient method for prediction.

scholarly journals Short-Term Electric Load Forecasting Using Standardized Load Profile (SLP) And Support Vector Regression (SVR)

2019 ◽  
Vol 9 (4) ◽  
pp. 4548-4553
Author(s):  
N. T. Dung ◽  
N. T. Phuong
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Business Strategy ◽  
Learning Algorithm ◽  
Load Forecasting ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecast Errors ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Load Profile ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Short-term load forecasting (STLF) plays an important role in business strategy building, ensuring reliability and safe operation for any electrical system. There are many different methods used for short-term forecasts including regression models, time series, neural networks, expert systems, fuzzy logic, machine learning, and statistical algorithms. The practical requirement is to minimize forecast errors, avoid wastages, prevent shortages, and limit risks in the electricity market. This paper proposes a method of STLF by constructing a standardized load profile (SLP) based on the past electrical load data, utilizing Support Regression Vector (SVR) machine learning algorithm to improve the accuracy of short-term forecasting algorithms.

scholarly journals Midterm Electricity Market Clearing Price Forecasting Using Two-Stage Multiple Support Vector Machine

2015 ◽  
Vol 2015 ◽  
pp. 1-11 ◽  
Author(s):  
Xing Yan ◽  
Nurul A. Chowdhury
Keyword(s):  
Support Vector Machine ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Forecasting Model ◽  
Two Stage ◽  
Market Clearing ◽  
Proposed Model ◽  
Market Clearing Price ◽  
Multiple Support ◽  
Short Term Forecasting

Currently, there are many techniques available for short-term forecasting of the electricity market clearing price (MCP), but very little work has been done in the area of midterm forecasting of the electricity MCP. The midterm forecasting of the electricity MCP is essential for maintenance scheduling, planning, bilateral contracting, resources reallocation, and budgeting. A two-stage multiple support vector machine (SVM) based midterm forecasting model of the electricity MCP is proposed in this paper. The first stage is utilized to separate the input data into corresponding price zones by using a single SVM. Then, the second stage is applied utilizing four parallel designed SVMs to forecast the electricity price in four different price zones. Compared to the forecasting model using a single SVM, the proposed model showed improved forecasting accuracy in both peak prices and overall system. PJM interconnection data are used to test the proposed model.

scholarly journals Short-Term Electricity Price Forecasting by Employing Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition and Extreme Learning Machine

Forecasting ◽  
2021 ◽  
Vol 3 (3) ◽  
pp. 460-477
Author(s):  
Sajjad Khan ◽  
Shahzad Aslam ◽  
Iqra Mustafa ◽  
Sheraz Aslam
Keyword(s):  
Extreme Learning Machine ◽  
Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Ensemble Empirical Mode Decomposition ◽  
Electricity Price ◽  
Price Forecasting ◽  
Short Term ◽  
Mode Decomposition ◽  
Electricity Price Forecasting ◽  
Learning Machine

Day-ahead electricity price forecasting plays a critical role in balancing energy consumption and generation, optimizing the decisions of electricity market participants, formulating energy trading strategies, and dispatching independent system operators. Despite the fact that much research on price forecasting has been published in recent years, it remains a difficult task because of the challenging nature of electricity prices that includes seasonality, sharp fluctuations in price, and high volatility. This study presents a three-stage short-term electricity price forecasting model by employing ensemble empirical mode decomposition (EEMD) and extreme learning machine (ELM). In the proposed model, the EEMD is employed to decompose the actual price signals to overcome the non-linear and non-stationary components in the electricity price data. Then, a day-ahead forecasting is performed using the ELM model. We conduct several experiments on real-time data obtained from three different states of the electricity market in Australia, i.e., Queensland, New South Wales, and Victoria. We also implement various deep learning approaches as benchmark methods, i.e., recurrent neural network, multi-layer perception, support vector machine, and ELM. In order to affirm the performance of our proposed and benchmark approaches, this study performs several performance evaluation metric, including the Diebold–Mariano (DM) test. The results from the experiments show the productiveness of our developed model (in terms of higher accuracy) over its counterparts.

scholarly journals Seasonal Dynamic Factor Analysis and Bootstrap Inference: Application to Electricity Market Forecasting

Technometrics ◽  
2011 ◽  
Vol 53 (2) ◽  
pp. 137-151 ◽  
Author(s):  
Andrés M. Alonso ◽  
Carolina García-Martos ◽  
Julio Rodríguez ◽  
María Jesús Sánchez
Keyword(s):  
Factor Analysis ◽  
Electricity Market ◽  
Seasonal Dynamic ◽  
Dynamic Factor Analysis ◽  
Dynamic Factor ◽  
Bootstrap Inference

A novel sensor array and classifier optimization method of electronic nose based on enhanced quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization

Sensor Review ◽  
2014 ◽  
Vol 34 (3) ◽  
pp. 304-311 ◽  
Author(s):  
Pengfei Jia ◽  
Fengchun Tian ◽  
Shu Fan ◽  
Qinghua He ◽  
Jingwei Feng ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Particle Swarm Optimization ◽  
Wound Infection ◽  
Electronic Nose ◽  
Classification Accuracy ◽  
Sensor Array ◽  
Particle Swarm ◽  
Optimization Method ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Swarm Optimization ◽  
Content Type

Purpose – The purpose of the paper is to propose a new optimization algorithm to realize a synchronous optimization of sensor array and classifier, to improve the performance of E-nose in the detection of wound infection. When an electronic nose (E-nose) is used to detect the wound infection, sensor array’s optimization and parameters’ setting of classifier have a strong impact on the classification accuracy. Design/methodology/approach – An enhanced quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization based on genetic algorithm, genetic quantum-behaved particle swarm optimization (G-QPSO), is proposed to realize a synchronous optimization of sensor array and classifier. The importance-factor (I-F) method is used to weight the sensors of E-nose by its degree of importance in classification. Both radical basis function network and support vector machine are used for classification. Findings – The classification accuracy of E-nose is the highest when the weighting coefficients of the I-F method and classifier’s parameters are optimized by G-QPSO. All results make it clear that the proposed method is an ideal optimization method of E-nose in the detection of wound infection. Research limitations/implications – To make the proposed optimization method more effective, the key point of further research is to enhance the classifier of E-nose. Practical implications – In this paper, E-nose is used to distinguish the class of wound infection; meanwhile, G-QPSO is used to realize a synchronous optimization of sensor array and classifier of E-nose. These are all important for E-nose to realize its clinical application in wound monitoring. Originality/value – The innovative concept improves the performance of E-nose in wound monitoring and paves the way for the clinical detection of E-nose.

Sustainable development early warning and financing risk management of resource-based industrial clusters using optimization algorithms

2022 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yawen Wang ◽  
Weixian Xue
Keyword(s):  
Risk Assessment ◽  
Early Warning ◽  
Industrial Cluster ◽  
Industrial Clusters ◽  
Shaanxi Province ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Financing Risk ◽  
Yulin City ◽  
Warning Model

PurposeThe purpose is to analyze and discuss the sustainable development (SD) and financing risk assessment (FRA) of resource-based industrial clusters under the Internet of Things (IoT) economy and promote the application of Machine Learning methods and intelligent optimization algorithms in FRA.Design/methodology/approachThis study used the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm that is analyzed together with the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm. First, Yulin City in Shaanxi Province is selected for case analysis. Then, resource-based industrial clusters are studied, and an SD early-warning model is implemented. Then, the financing Risk Assessment Index System is established from the perspective of construction-operation-transfer. Finally, the risk assessment results of Support Vector Regression (SVR) and ACO-based SVR (ACO-SVR) are analyzed.FindingsThe results show that the overall sustainability of resource-based industrial clusters and IoT industrial clusters is good in the Yulin City of Shaanxi Province, and the early warning model of GA-based SVR (GA-SVR) has been achieved good results. Yulin City shows an excellent SD momentum in the resource-based industrial cluster, but there are still some risks. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the industrial structure of SD and improve the stability of the resource-based industrial cluster for Yulin City.Originality/valueThe results can provide a direction for the research on the early warning and evaluation of the SD-oriented resource-based industrial clusters and the IoT industrial clusters, promoting the application of SVM technology in the engineering field.

An improved sparrow search algorithm based on levy flight and opposition-based learning

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Danni Chen ◽  
JianDong Zhao ◽  
Peng Huang ◽  
Xiongna Deng ◽  
Tingting Lu
Keyword(s):  
Parameter Optimization ◽  
Optimization Problem ◽  
Heuristic Algorithms ◽  
Search Algorithm ◽  
Convergence Speed ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Lévy Flight ◽  
Levy Flight ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Opposition Based Learning

Purpose Sparrow search algorithm (SSA) is a novel global optimization method, but it is easy to fall into local optimization, which leads to its poor search accuracy and stability. The purpose of this study is to propose an improved SSA algorithm, called levy flight and opposition-based learning (LOSSA), based on LOSSA strategy. The LOSSA shows better search accuracy, faster convergence speed and stronger stability. Design/methodology/approach To further enhance the optimization performance of the algorithm, The Levy flight operation is introduced into the producers search process of the original SSA to enhance the ability of the algorithm to jump out of the local optimum. The opposition-based learning strategy generates better solutions for SSA, which is beneficial to accelerate the convergence speed of the algorithm. On the one hand, the performance of the LOSSA is evaluated by a set of numerical experiments based on classical benchmark functions. On the other hand, the hyper-parameter optimization problem of the Support Vector Machine (SVM) is also used to test the ability of LOSSA to solve practical problems. Findings First of all, the effectiveness of the two improved methods is verified by Wilcoxon signed rank test. Second, the statistical results of the numerical experiment show the significant improvement of the LOSSA compared with the original algorithm and other natural heuristic algorithms. Finally, the feasibility and effectiveness of the LOSSA in solving the hyper-parameter optimization problem of machine learning algorithms are demonstrated. Originality/value An improved SSA based on LOSSA is proposed in this paper. The experimental results show that the overall performance of the LOSSA is satisfactory. Compared with the SSA and other natural heuristic algorithms, the LOSSA shows better search accuracy, faster convergence speed and stronger stability. Moreover, the LOSSA also showed great optimization performance in the hyper-parameter optimization of the SVM model.

Application of machine learning in predicting construction project profit in Ghana using Support Vector Regression Algorithm (SVRA)

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Emmanuel Adinyira ◽  
Emmanuel Akoi-Gyebi Adjei ◽  
Kofi Agyekum ◽  
Frank Desmond Kofi Fugar
Keyword(s):  
Machine Learning ◽  
Support Vector Regression ◽  
Cash Flow ◽  
Predictive Accuracy ◽  
Model Development ◽  
Construction Project ◽  
Support Vector ◽  
Sensitivity Index ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Hyperparameter Selection

PurposeKnowledge of the effect of various cash-flow factors on expected project profit is important to effectively manage productivity on construction projects. This study was conducted to develop and test the sensitivity of a Machine Learning Support Vector Regression Algorithm (SVRA) to predict construction project profit in Ghana.Design/methodology/approachThe study relied on data from 150 institutional projects executed within the past five years (2014–2018) in developing the model. Eighty percent (80%) of the data from the 150 projects was used at hyperparameter selection and final training phases of the model development and the remaining 20% for model testing. Using MATLAB for Support Vector Regression, the parameters available for tuning were the epsilon values, the kernel scale, the box constraint and standardisations. The sensitivity index was computed to determine the degree to which the independent variables impact the dependent variable.FindingsThe developed model's predictions perfectly fitted the data and explained all the variability of the response data around its mean. Average predictive accuracy of 73.66% was achieved with all the variables on the different projects in validation. The developed SVR model was sensitive to labour and loan.Originality/valueThe developed SVRA combines variation, defective works and labour with other financial constraints, which have been the variables used in previous studies. It will aid contractors in predicting profit on completion at commencement and also provide information on the effect of changes to cash-flow factors on profit.

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