Sustainable development early warning and financing risk management of resource-based industrial clusters using optimization algorithms

PurposeThe purpose is to analyze and discuss the sustainable development (SD) and financing risk assessment (FRA) of resource-based industrial clusters under the Internet of Things (IoT) economy and promote the application of Machine Learning methods and intelligent optimization algorithms in FRA.Design/methodology/approachThis study used the Support Vector Machine (SVM) algorithm that is analyzed together with the Genetic Algorithm (GA) and Ant Colony Optimization (ACO) algorithm. First, Yulin City in Shaanxi Province is selected for case analysis. Then, resource-based industrial clusters are studied, and an SD early-warning model is implemented. Then, the financing Risk Assessment Index System is established from the perspective of construction-operation-transfer. Finally, the risk assessment results of Support Vector Regression (SVR) and ACO-based SVR (ACO-SVR) are analyzed.FindingsThe results show that the overall sustainability of resource-based industrial clusters and IoT industrial clusters is good in the Yulin City of Shaanxi Province, and the early warning model of GA-based SVR (GA-SVR) has been achieved good results. Yulin City shows an excellent SD momentum in the resource-based industrial cluster, but there are still some risks. Therefore, it is necessary to promote the industrial structure of SD and improve the stability of the resource-based industrial cluster for Yulin City.Originality/valueThe results can provide a direction for the research on the early warning and evaluation of the SD-oriented resource-based industrial clusters and the IoT industrial clusters, promoting the application of SVM technology in the engineering field.

Research on the change of Spatio-temporal characteristics of Urban built-up area based on remote Sensing-- A case study of Yulin City, Shaanxi Province

Since the reform and opening up, the process of urbanization in China has been at a high level. In order to accurately obtain the boundary of urban built-up area and the spatiotemporal change characteristics of urban built-up area in recent years, this paper takes Yulin City as an example. With the help of ArcGIS, ERDAS and other platforms, we combine spatial comparison method and index method to extract urban built-up area from DMSP-OLS night light data and Landsat image data. At the same time, the confusion matrix is used to verify the extraction boundary. The research shows that: (1) Using DMSP-OLS night light data and Landsat data to extract the built-up area, the overall accuracy can reach 99%; (2) The urban built-up area of Yulin City expanded at a high speed from 2005 to 2018; (3) The urbanization process in the northeast of Yulin City is obviously higher than that in the south in recent years. This study has a certain reference value for the extraction of urban built-up areas and the development of urbanization in Yulin City by using DMSP-OLS night light data and Landsat data.

Forecast of regional water demand based on NSGAII-FORAGM

Regional water demand is an important basic data for regional engineering planning, design and management. Making full use of multi-source data and prior knowledge to quickly and economically obtain high-precision regional water demand is of great significance to the optimal allocation of regional water resources. In order to accurately predict the regional water demand, this study took Yulin City as a research area to predict the water demand of the city from 2017 to 2019. Aiming at the oscillating characteristics of the regional water demand sequence and the over-fitting problem of traditional prediction models, this study proposed the non-dominated sorting genetic algorithm II-fractional order reverse accumulative grey model (NSGAII-FORAGM). The regional water demand oscillation sequence was transformed into a monotonically decreasing non-negative sequence. Based on the transformation sequence, an optimization model was constructed according to the two objective functions of ‘maximum (or minimum) order’ and ‘best fit to historical data’, and the NSGAII method were adopted to solve the model. The three model structures of ‘fractional order’, ‘reverse accumulation’ and ‘obtaining order through multi-objective optimization model ‘ were tested based on the water use sequence of the three sectors (industry, tertiary industry and domestic) in Yulin City, and the performance of the method is compared with NSGAII-IORAGM, NSGAII-FOFAGM and SOGA-FORAGM. The results showed that the average relative error of the model established in this study for the simulation of industry, tertiary industry (The tertiary industry is a technical name for the service sector of the economy, which encompasses a wide range of businesses), and domestic was 15.54%, 11.20%, 9.98% respectively. The average relative error of the model established in this study for the prediction of industry, tertiary industry and domestic was 9.46%, 7.9%, 1.8% respectively. For the simulation of water demand sequences in three sections, the simulation average relative errors of the other three models were not absolutely dominant except for the SOGA-FORAGM model. The average relative predicted error by the model in this study was the smallest (The relative errors of the three sequence predictions for industry, tertiary industry and domestic were lower than the relative errors of the optimal results of the comparison model, which were 0.97%, 0.72% and 4.5%, respectively), indicating that the model had certain applicability for the water demand prediction of various sectors (industry, tertiary industry and domestic) in the region compared with other models, and can improve the accuracy of the prediction results.

Analysis of Characteristics of Dry–Wet Events Abrupt Alternation in Northern Shaanxi, China

In this study, Yulin city and Yan’an city in northern Shaanxi Province were taken as the study area. Based on the diurnal dry–wet events abrupt alternation index DWAAI, the joint probability distribution of two characteristic variables of “urgency” and “alternation” of dry–wet events abrupt alternation was established by using copula function, and the characteristics of dry–wet events abrupt alternation were analyzed. DWAAI was calculated from daily precipitation data and the applicability of the index was verified. On this basis, the two characteristic variables of “urgency” and “alternation” were separated, and the appropriate marginal distribution function was selected to fit them, and the correlation between the two variables was evaluated. Finally, the appropriate copula function was selected to fit the bivariate of each station, and the joint cumulative probability and recurrence period of the two variables were calculated. The results show that the DWAAI index is suitable for the identification of dry–wet events abrupt alternation in the study area. Light and moderate dry–wet events abrupt alternation occurs more frequently, while severe events rarely occur in the study area. The frequency of severe dry–wet events abrupt alternation in Jingbian station and its northern area is greater than that in the southern area, and the risk of dry–wet events abrupt alternation of disasters in the northern area is higher. The greater the degree of “urgency” and “alternation”, the greater the joint cumulative probability and the greater the return period. The return period of severe dry–wet events abrupt alternation was more than five years, while the return period of light and moderate dry–wet events abrupt alternation was less than five years.

Comparison of Precipitation Projections of CMIP5 and CMIP6 Global Climate Models over Yulin, China

This study compared precipitation projections of Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6) GCMs over Yulin City, China. The performance of CMIP5 and CMIP6 GCMs in replicating Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC) precipitation climatology of the city was evaluated using different statistical metrics. The best performing GCMs common to both CMIP5 and CMIP6 were selected and subsequently downscaled to GPCC resolution using linear scaling method to spatiotemporal changes in precipitation. The study revealed BCC.CSM1.1(m), IPSL.CM5A.LR, MRI.CGCM3 and MIROC5 of CMIP5 and their equivalents BCC-CSM2-MR, IPSL-CM6A-LR, MRI.ESM2.0 and MIRCO6 of CMIP6 as the most suitable GCMs for the projection of rainfall in Yulin. Changes in precipitation were in the range of -14.0 − 0.0% and − 22.0 − 0.2% during 2021−2060 for RCP4.5 and SSP2-4.5 respectively. The highest decrease of -29.7 ̶ -22.0% was projected by MRI-ESM-2-0 for SSP2-4.5, while − 28.0 − -20.0% by MIROC5 for RCP4.5. For RCP8.5 and SSP5-8.5, precipitation was projected to decrease in the range of -17.0 ̶ -2.0% and − 32.0 ̶ 0.0%, respectively during 2021 ̶ 2060 by most of the GCMs. An increase in precipitation up to 12.3% was projected only by IPSL-CM5A-LR for RCP8.5 for this period. The highest decrease was projected by MIROC5 (-40.2 − -29.0%) for RCP8.5 and IPSL-CM6A-LR (-40.2 − -26.0%) for SSP5-8.5. Overall, the results revealed a higher decrease in precipitation in Yulin city by CMIP6 GCMs compared to those projected by their corresponding GCMs of CMIP5 for both scenarios.

A Review Of The Research On Emergency Logistics Of Tropical Cyclone Disasters In Guangxi

It is found that Guangxi is affected by many tropical cyclones (generally referred to as typhoons in China) every year. According to the statistics of typhoons that entered the inland of Guangxi from 1970 to 2013, 89 typhoons entered Guangxi in 44 years, with an average of 2 typhoons per year (Jing Li, Liyan Qi, 2015). And these tropical cyclone disasters have caused a large number of casualties and economic losses in Guangxi. Typhoon No. 0606 "Prapiroon" entered Guangxi from Yulin city, causing 74 counties (cities and districts) in Guangxi to suffer disasters, affecting 5.76 million people, killing 34 people and causing direct economic losses of 7 billion yuan (Jing Li, et al., 2007). In addition, according to the report of Guangxi Civil Affairs Department, super typhoon No. 1409 "Rammasun" landed in Fangchenggang area of Beibu Gulf, causing 4.3211 million people in 11 cities and 57 counties (cities and districts) including Beihai and Fangchenggang to suffer disaster, affecting 1.456 million hectares of crops, 8,527 farmhouses collapsed, and the direct economic losses reached 13.84 billion yuan. Moreover, the number and intensity of tropical cyclone that caused serious damage to Guangxi increased gradually. Keywords: Emergency Logistics, Tropical Cyclone Disasters, Emergency Supplies Requirements, Emergency Supplies Dispatching, Guangxi

Meteorological Drought Changes and Related Circulation Characteristics in Yulin City of the Northern Shaanxi from 1961 to 2015

This study explored the spatio-temporal patterns of meteorological drought change and the mechanisms of drought occurrence in Yulin City of the northern Shaanxi by using Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI), Empirical Orthogonal Function (EOF) analysis and composite analysis based on the meteorological observation data and NCEP/NCAR reanalysis data from 1961 to 2015. The main findings of the research are as follows: (1) In the annual and seasonal drought series, there is a non-significant trend toward drought in summer, while there are non-significant trends toward wetness for the other series. Overall, the frequency of drought is low in the southeast and high in the west and the north of the study area. (2) EOF1 is characterized by a uniform pattern in the whole region, i.e., there is a feature of consistent drought or flood in Yulin City. EOF2, EOF3 and EOF4 mainly indicate opposite characteristics of the changes of floods and droughts in the eastern/western parts and the southeast/other parts in the study area. (3) In the summer of the typical drought (flood) years, the study area is controlled by the northwest airflow behind the trough (zonal airflow at the bottom of low-pressure trough), and the meridional circulation (zonal circulation) is distributed in the mid-latitudes, which is conducive to the intrusion of cold air into the south (north) of China. The cold and warm air intersection area is to the south (to the north). The water vapor flux is weak (strong) and the water vapor divergence (convergence) prohibits (enhances) the precipitation process in the study area.

Agricultural Structure Adjustment and Rural Poverty Alleviation in the Agro-Pastoral Transition Zone of Northern China: A Case Study of Yulin City

Poverty restricts rural sustainable development and urban–rural integration. Agricultural development is an engine of rural economic development and poverty elimination. Agricultural structure adjustment and rural poverty alleviation in Yulin City from the agro-pastoral transition zone of Northern China were studied using statistical data. Our results showed that the rural poverty ratio in Yulin was 7.70% in 2017, with clearly higher trends in southeast regions and lower trends in northeast regions. Northern Yulin had a lower proportion of primary industry to gross domestic production and ratio of agriculture to animal husbandry than southern Yulin. The agricultural structure variability index and agricultural specialization index have changed little, while the actual growth rate of the rural per capita net income has dramatically declined in the last decade. The rural poverty ratio was positively correlated with proportion of primary industry and ratio of agriculture to animal husbandry. These results suggest that a reduced proportion of primary industry and animal husbandry development will promote rural poverty alleviation and future rural revitalization.