scholarly journals Will the Chinese economy be more volatile in the future? Insights from urban household survey data

2019 ◽  
Vol 15 (4) ◽  
pp. 790-808 ◽  
Author(s):  
Jian Yu ◽  
Xunpeng Shi ◽  
James Laurenceson
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Decomposition Method ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumption Volatility ◽  
Intertemporal Dynamics ◽  
Consumption Goods ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Consumption volatility is a key source of economic growth volatility; thus, it is an important factor in designing macroeconomic policy. The purpose of this paper is to investigate the factors that determine household consumption volatility, using urban household survey (UHS) data over the period 2002–2009 in 18 provinces in China. Design/methodology/approach Both a traditional variance decomposition method and an advanced variance decomposition method are used. Findings The traditional variance decomposition method suggests that heterogeneity of consumption goods is the key to analyze consumption volatility in China. Consumption of transportation makes the highest aggregate contribution and per-unit volatility in consumption volatility, whereas consumption of food makes the second highest aggregate contribution and the lowest per-unit volatility. Further investigation with the advanced variance decomposition method, which allows the authors to capture intertemporal dynamics and cross-household differences simultaneously, finds that the main factor determining the consumption volatility in China is intertemporal dynamics, rather than cross-household differences. Research limitations/implications Future research could fruitfully explore four issues. First, consumption upgrading has increased the volatility of China’s household consumption. How much will this affect economic growth in China under its “new normal” conditions, and how should the Chinese government respond? Second, differences between UHS data and aggregate data in the calculations of consumption risk sharing need to be investigated. Third, it is important to investigate the channels through which the Chinese government can enhance its ability to spread consumption risks and thus reduce consumer consumption volatility. Finally, further study could extend the current 18 provinces to a nation-wide sample and update the data beyond 2009 to estimate the impact of the global financial crisis. Practical implications The results suggest that when policy makers design macroeconomic policies to smooth consumption volatility, they should consider heterogeneity in household consumption goods, regional disparity and intertemporal dynamics simultaneously. Well-managed volatility of Chinese household consumption can contribute to a stable economic growth in China and the world. Social implications Well-managed volatility of Chinese household consumption can contribute to a stable economic growth in China and the world. Originality/value This paper fills this gap by using China’s UHS data to assess consumption volatility from the perspectives of heterogeneity in household consumption goods, cross-household differences and intertemporal dynamics. We make three contributions to the literature. The first contribution of this paper consists of demonstrating the contributions of heterogeneity in household consumption goods to consumption volatility. The second contribution consists of using the advanced variance decomposition method proposed by Crucini and Telmer (2012). This decomposition methodology allows the authors to examine whether household consumption volatility is due to cross-household differences or intertemporal dynamics. The third contribution is that this paper takes Chinese residents’ consumption fluctuations as the starting point to analyze the impact of consumption fluctuations on the future trend of China’s economy.

Reopening the debate on the relationship among remittances, household consumption stability and economic growth in emerging markets

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Dimitar Eftimoski ◽  
Dushko Josheski
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Generalized Method Of Moments ◽  
Recipient Country ◽  
Household Consumption ◽  
Finite Sample ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Consumption Volatility ◽  
Stabilizing Effect ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe impact of remittances on household consumption stability and economic growth is not quite clear. This paper attempts to reopen the debate on the relationship among these three variables. The current remittance literature suggests that a decrease in household consumption volatility, induced by remittances, automatically leads to economic growth. This paper challenges these arguments by stating that, under certain circumstances, there is no automatic relationship among remittances, household consumption stability and growth.Design/methodology/approachThe authors approach the question from the perspective of emerging Central, Eastern and Southeastern European (CESEE) countries. The authors use the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) estimator with the Windmeijer (2005) finite-sample correction. To test the existence of the possible non-linear effects of remittances on household consumption stability and economic growth, the authors use threshold regressions.FindingsThe authors find that remittances significantly reduce household consumption volatility. They exhibit a consumption-smoothing effect on recipient households. This stabilizing effect happens not through the preventive role of remittances, but rather through their compensatory role. Remittances produce a weaker stabilizing effect on household consumption when the remittance to GDP ratio of the recipient country is above the estimated threshold level of 4.5%. The authors also find that there is a negatively significant and linear impact of remittances on growth. There is no evidence to suggest that remittances can foster productive investment and therefore promote economic growth in CESEE countries, which means that: (1) the remittances cannot be treated as a source of funds to invest in human and physical capital and (2) the remittances are compensatory rather than profit-oriented.Originality/valueAs far as the authors are aware, this is the first study that investigates the impact of remittances on both household consumption stability and economic growth simultaneously.

Monopoly and corporate innovation: evidence from antitrust law

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Minggui Yu ◽  
Yujing Huang ◽  
Huijie Zhong ◽  
Qing Zhang
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Law Enforcement ◽  
Market Competition ◽  
Private Enterprises ◽  
Chinese Government ◽  
Antitrust Law ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Innovation Activities ◽  
Corporate Innovation ◽  
The Impact

Purpose There are two opposite views about whether the Antitrust Law is conducive to the development of the economy. One view is that the Antitrust Law can restrain monopoly, maintain market competition and benefit economic growth. The other view is that the Antitrust Law inhibits innovation by monopolistic firms and fosters rent-seeking, which is bad for economic growth. To provide a possible perspective for clarifying the controversy, this paper aims to answer the following two questions: first, will the Antitrust Law inhibit corporate innovation? Second, does the antitrust enforcement agency discriminate against private enterprises? Design/methodology/approach Based on the samples of A-share listed companies from 2003 to 2013, the authors use the implementation of China’s Antitrust Law in 2008 as a policy shock, take the monopoly enterprises in each industry as the treatment group and competitive enterprises as the control group, using the difference-in-differences method to test the impact of the implementation of the Antitrust Law on corporate innovation activities. Findings The results show that compared with competitive enterprises, the patent output of monopolistic enterprises was significantly reduced after the implementation of the Antitrust Law, which indicates that the Antitrust Law does inhibit the innovation activities of monopolistic enterprises. Further research finds that the innovation suppression effect of the Antitrust Law is more prominent in state-owned enterprises, which means that the government does not have “selective law enforcement” against private enterprises in the process of law enforcement. Therefore, the results provide evidence for the idea that government intervention is neutral. Originality/value First, the paper enriches and expands the research on the factors affecting corporate innovation from the perspective of market structure. Second, it enriches and expands relevant research on the consequences of implementing the Antitrust Law from the perspective of corporate innovation. Third, it not only provides the relevant empirical evidence for clarifying the dispute about the Antitrust Law but also is helpful to clarify whether the Chinese Government has “selective law enforcement” against private enterprises.

Does female human capital contribute to economic growth in India?: an empirical investigation

2017 ◽  
Vol 44 (11) ◽  
pp. 1506-1521 ◽  
Author(s):  
Madhu Sehrawat ◽  
A.K. Giri
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Physical Capital ◽  
Variance Decomposition ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Indian Economy ◽  
Education And Health ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to examine the impact of female human capital on economic growth in the Indian economy during 1970-2014. Design/methodology/approach The paper employs Ng-Perron unit root test to check the order of integration of the variables. The study also used ARDL-bounds testing approach and the unrestricted error-correction model to investigate co-integration in the long run and short run; Granger’s causality test to investigate the direction of the causality; and variance decomposition test to capture the influence of each variable on economic growth. Findings The study constructed a composite index for both male and female human capitals by taking education and health as a proxy for human capital. The empirical findings reveal that female human capital is significant and positively related to economic growth in both short run and long run, while male human capital is positive but insignificant to the economic growth; same is the case for physical capital, it implies that such investment regarding female human capital needs to be reinforced. Further, there is an evidence of a long-run causal relationship from female human capital, male human capital and physical capital to economic growth variable. The results of variance decomposition show the importance of the female human capital variable is increasing over the time and it exerts the largest influence in change in economic growth. Research limitations/implications The empirical findings suggest that the Indian economy has to pay attention equally on the development of female human capital for short-run as well as long-run growth of the economy. This implies that the policy makers should divert more expenditure for developing support for female education and health. Originality/value To the best of authors’ knowledge, this is the first attempt to study the relationship between female human capital and economic growth in the context of the Indian economy.

scholarly journals The drivers of economic growth in China and India: globalization or financial development?

2017 ◽  
Vol 16 (1) ◽  
pp. 54-84 ◽  
Author(s):  
Magda Kandil ◽  
Muhammad Shahbaz ◽  
Mantu Kumar Mahalik ◽  
Duc Khuong Nguyen
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
Emerging Market ◽  
Annual Data ◽  
Test Results ◽  
Causality Test ◽  
Content Type ◽  
China And India ◽  
Integration Test ◽  
The Impact

Purpose Using annual data from 1970 to 2013 for China and India, this paper aims to examine the impact of globalization and financial development on economic growth by endogenizing capital and inflation and drawing comparisons between the two fastest growing emerging market economies. Design/methodology/approach In the long run, co-integration test results indicate that financial development increases economic growth in China and India. Findings The results also reveal that globalization accelerates economic growth in India but, surprisingly, impairs economic growth in China, as it increases competition for exports. The results furthermore disclose that acceleration in capitalization and inflation, as a proxy for aggregate demand, are positively linked to economic growth in China and India. Originality/value Causality test results indicate that both financial development and economic growth are interdependent. In contrast, causality runs from higher economic growth to increased globalization in India, while the results do not support long-term causality between globalization and economic growth in China.

scholarly journals Are some taxes better for growth in Pakistan? A time series analysis

2018 ◽  
Vol 45 (10) ◽  
pp. 1439-1452 ◽  
Author(s):  
Kashif Munir ◽  
Maryam Sultan
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Time Series ◽  
International Trade ◽  
Sales Tax ◽  
Tax Base ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Indirect Taxes ◽  
Short Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze the impact of taxes on economic growth in the long run as well as in the short run. Design/methodology/approach The study uses simple time series model, where real GDP is dependent variable and different forms of taxes are explanatory variables under ARDL framework from 1976 to 2014 at annual frequency for Pakistan. Findings Direct taxes have positive relation with economic growth in the long run. Sales tax, tax on international trade (tariffs) and other indirect taxes have positive impact on economic growth of Pakistan in the long run as well as in the short run. However, sales tax and other indirect taxes impact negatively on economic growth in the short run after one year because people realize decline in their real income. Practical implications Government should increase direct taxes by increasing tax base. Indirect taxes usually indicate negative impact after one and two years; therefore, government should decrease its reliance on indirect taxes. Government should promote tax awareness among the people which increase the tax morale of people and increase the tax base. Originality/value Taxes are disaggregated into direct and indirect taxes, while indirect taxes have been further disaggregated into excise duty, sales tax, surcharges, tax on international trade and other indirect taxes. This study provides useful insight for policy makers in designing taxes and their effect on growth.

Farmland transfer and agricultural economic growth nexus in China: agricultural TFP intermediary effect perspective

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Yuan-pei Kuang ◽  
Jia-li Yang ◽  
Meseret-Chanie Abate
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Agricultural Economic ◽  
Test Model ◽  
Promoting Effect ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Effect Model ◽  
Intermediary Role ◽  
Multidimensional Effects ◽  
The Impact

PurposeThe multidimensional effects of farmland transfer in China have been profoundly unstudied. The purpose of this paper is to provide insights on the effects of the intermediary role of agricultural total factor productivity (TFP) of farmland transfer on agricultural economic growth in China.Design/methodology/approachBased on the agricultural data of 30 provinces in China over the period 2005–2018, this paper uses the intermediary effect model to test the relationship between farmland transfer, agricultural TFP and agricultural economic growth. This paper employed an intermediary effect test model to investigate the intermediary role of agricultural TFP in the influence of farmland transfer on agricultural economic growth.FindingsThe findings indicated that farmland transfer has a significant effect on promoting agricultural economic growth. There is a significant “inverted U-shaped” relationship between farmland transfer and agricultural TFP. The sample value of 84.3% of farmland transfers in China is still within the TFP promoting effect range. In addition, farmland transfer has an indirect impact on agricultural economic growth through the channel of agricultural TFP. Agricultural TFP plays a significant intermediary role, but the effect is relatively lowOriginality/valueThis paper is the first to provide fundamental evidence on the impact of farmland transfers on agricultural economic growth in China, driven by agricultural TFP as an intermediary factor. Agricultural TFP can reduce the involution effect of farmland transfer and promote an indirect effect on agricultural economic growth.

scholarly journals On the restricted form of energy-growth nexus: a global level VECM approach and the historical structural breaks

2020 ◽  
Vol 14 (6) ◽  
pp. 1205-1220
Author(s):  
Luís Miguel Marques ◽  
José Alberto Fuinhas ◽  
António Cardoso Marques
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Energy Consumption ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Global Level ◽  
Global Energy ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Energy Growth ◽  
Restricted Form ◽  
Long Run ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to focus on global energy consumption using the economic growth nexus, the prevalent energy hypothesis at a global level and the impact of the main historical events assessed for the period from 1965 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach Given the confirmed presence of endogeneity and cointegration between energy consumption and economic growth, a vector error correction with structural dummies model was used. Furthermore, the impulse-response functions and variance decomposition were computed to evaluate the variables’ dynamics. Findings Bi-directional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth was found, both in the short and long-run, supporting the feedback hypothesis. It is proved that the 2008 crisis impacted on the global energy–growth nexus. Furthermore, there is evidence of the impact of the 1990s oil price shock on the nexus. Innovations in energy consumption have a positive impact on economic growth; however, this impact tends to be null in the long run. Practical implications The results suggest that at a global level, any energy policy should be carefully designed in order not to hamper economic growth. Countries should not remain indifferent to the policies that other countries might follow. Very few historical crises impacted on the global energy–growth nexus. Originality/value This paper offers a different approach to the study of the energy–growth nexus. The energy–growth nexus is analysed in the major macroeconomic aggregate. Global variables reveal their relevance as a benchmark in the energy–growth nexus. Furthermore, this paper arrives at some conclusions about how historical crises impact on global relationships.

Interest rate liberalization and economic growth nexus: does corruption matter?

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Abdulhadi Aliyara Haruna ◽  
Abu Sufian Abu Bakar
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Interest Rate ◽  
Positive Impact ◽  
Reform Process ◽  
Negative Effects ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Cross Sectional ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Interest Rate Liberalization ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine the impact of interest rate liberalization on economic growth and the relevance of corruption in the five selected sub-Saharan African countries. Design/methodology/approach The study used the modified version of Driscoll and Kraay’s model by Hoechle, which solved the effects of cross-sectional dependence and heteroscedasticity. Findings The findings reveal a positive impact of the index on economic growth, and it was found that foreign direct investment (FDI) and credit to private sector by banks (CPSB) all stimulate economic growth. The interaction terms of corruption with FDI and CPSB indicate negative effects that show how corruption erodes the benefits of liberalization. Finally, the paper recommends the pursuit of appropriate policies with the sole aim of eradicating corruption and providing a conducive environment for business. Originality/value The paper developed a composite domestic financial liberalization index to capture the timing and essential dimensions of the reform process. The study investigates the effect of interest rate liberalization on economic growth and the relevance of corruption. Most of the recent and past studies only examined the impact of interest rate reforms on growth without investigating the relevance of corruption.

Innovation, institutions and economic growth in sub-Saharan Africa – an IV estimation of a panel threshold model

2020 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Joseph Ato Forson ◽  
Rosemary Afrakomah Opoku ◽  
Michael Owusu Appiah ◽  
Evans Kyeremeh ◽  
Ibrahim Anyass Ahmed ◽  
...  
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Innovation Policy ◽  
Threshold Model ◽  
Sub Saharan Africa ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Panel Regressions ◽  
Sub Saharan ◽  
The Impact ◽  
The Relationship

PurposeThe significant impact of innovation in stimulating economic growth cannot be overemphasized, more importantly from policy perspective. For this reason, the relationship between innovation and economic growth in developing economies such as the ones in Africa has remained topical. Yet, innovation as a concept is multi-dimensional and cannot be measured by just one single variable. With hindsight of the traditional measures of innovation in literature, we augment it with the number of scientific journals published in the region to enrich this discourse.Design/methodology/approachWe focus on an approach that explores innovation policy qualitatively from various policy documents of selected countries in the region from three policy perspectives (i.e. institutional framework, financing and diffusion and interaction). We further investigate whether innovation as perceived differently is important for economic growth in 25 economies in sub-Saharan Africa over the period 1990–2016. Instrumental variable estimation of a threshold regression is used to capture the contributions of innovation as a multi-dimensional concept on economic growth, while dealing with endogeneity between the regressors and error term.FindingsThe results from both traditional panel regressions and IV panel threshold regressions show a positive relationship between innovation and economic growth, although the impact seems negligible. Institutional quality dampens innovation among low-regime economies, and the relation is persistent regardless of when the focus is on aggregate or decomposed institutional factors. The impact of innovation on economic growth in most regressions is robust to different dimensions of innovation. Yet, the coefficients of the innovation variables in the two regimes are quite dissimilar. While most countries in the region have offered financial support in the form of budgetary allocations to strengthen institutions, barriers to the design and implementation of innovation policies may be responsible for the sluggish contribution of innovation to the growth pattern of the region.Originality/valueSegregating economies of Africa into two distinct regimes based on a threshold of investment in education as a share of GDP in order to understand the relationship between innovation and economic growth is quite novel. This lends credence to the fact that innovation as a multifaceted concept does not take place by chance – it is carefully planned. We have enriched the discourse of innovation and thus helped in deepening understanding on this contentious subject.

Non-Financial Determinants and economic fluctuations – evidence from Yemen

2019 ◽  
Vol 35 (3) ◽  
pp. 376-391
Author(s):  
Sulaiman Abdullah Saif Alnasser Mohammed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Arab World ◽  
Economic Status ◽  
Oil Price ◽  
Research Review ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Before And After ◽  
Additional Reference ◽  
The Arab Spring ◽  
The Impact

Purpose This paper aims to examine, by way of an analytical research review, the reasons for the fluctuations in the economic growth of the country of Yemen during the period from 2000 to 2014. The authors are trying to generate the answers to the following questions: Has tourism, oil price, politically instability improved? What is the impact of tourism, oil price and politically instability on economic growth before and after turbulence time? We have found that very low number of papers have written about the topic. Yemen, as a developing country, has been under the influence of an turbulence time. The term “turbulence time” refers to the series of independent uprisings that occurred in 2010 across the Arab world. There is a lack of understanding concerning the economic growth status in the existing literature during this period. Design/methodology/approach The authors use vector error-correction model to examine the impact of candidate variables .This review and analysis could provide an additional understanding in terms of the factors contributing to economic growth in Yemen; particularly before and after the turbulence time. Findings Despite oil prices having appreciated and the unemployment rate having improved, particularly after the Arab Spring, political instability has dominated the scope of determinants for economic growth in Yemen. To address the objective of this study. Originality/value This paper provides an additional reference about the economic status of Yemen.

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