scholarly journals Fiscal sustainability in developing Asia – new evidence from panel correlated common effect model

2019 ◽  
Vol 27 (1) ◽  
pp. 66-80 ◽  
Author(s):  
Duy-Tung Bui
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Heterogeneous Effects ◽  
Sustainability Issue ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Common Correlated Effects

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to investigate the problem of fiscal sustainability for a panel of developing Asian economies. Design/methodology/approach In this study, cross-section dependence and heterogeneity are controlled while estimating the fiscal reaction function, which shows how governments react to the accumulation of public debt. The study employs the common correlated effects mean group estimator in Pesaran (2006) for a panel of 22 developing Asian economies for the period 1999‒2017. Findings It is found that the fiscal sustainability issue in the region is not so benign as in previous studies. Overall, fiscal policy is unsustainable, even for the nonlinear fiscal rule. Country-specific long-run coefficients are also examined in the study. Research limitations/implications The findings show that many developing economies in the region could not satisfy the intertemporal budget constraint, which raises concerns about debt sustainability in the area, especially for the post-crisis period. Originality/value This study investigates whether governments can maintain the sustainability of public finances in the long-run, if the ratios of public debt over GDP and primary deficit over GDP continue their recent problematic trends. Another novelty is controlling for heterogeneous effects among the countries in the region to give a more precise picture of debt sustainability. The empirical evidence also supports that insolvency risk can occur at low levels of public debt.

Fiscal sustainability in India: evidence from Markov switching and threshold regression models

2019 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Vaseem Akram ◽  
Badri Narayan Rath
Keyword(s):  
Regression Model ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Markov Switching ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Optimum Level ◽  
Fiscal Deficit ◽  
Threshold Regression ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Sustainability Issue ◽  
Threshold Regression Model

PurposeThe purpose of this study is to examine the fiscal sustainability issue by dividing the fiscal deficit into high and low regimes using the quarterly data from 1997: Q1 to 2013: Q3. Further, we obtain the optimum level of public debt at which fiscal sustainability can be achieved.Design/methodology/approachThis study uses the Markov Switching-Vector Error Correction Model (MS-VECM) for examining fiscal sustainability and threshold regression model to obtain the optimum level of debt.FindingsThe results derived from MS-VECM reveal the evidence in favor of fiscal sustainability during low fiscal deficit periods. Similarly, using a threshold regression model, the optimum public debt as a percentage to GDP seems to be around 21 per cent on a quarterly basis, beyond this level, public debt hurts economic growth.Practical implicationsFrom the policy front, the government of India should cut down the fiscal deficit only if debt reaches beyond a threshold level.Originality/valueNoting that the vast literature has focused on examining the fiscal sustainability in India, the novelty of this study is to examine the fiscal sustainability by considering high and low deficits regimes using a non-linear approach.

scholarly journals Fiscal Sustainability in Indonesia with Asymmetry

2021 ◽  
Vol 67 (1) ◽  
pp. 19
Author(s):  
Mohamad Ikhsan ◽  
I Gede Sthitaprajna Virananda
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Fiscal Sustainability ◽  
Partial Sums ◽  
Debt Ratio ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Fiscal Management ◽  
Weak Sustainability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Fiscal Balance ◽  
Fiscal Imbalance

The management of fiscal balance determines public debt sustainability, where a positive response of primary balance towards the debt ratio indicates a sustainable path. However, there might be asymmetry in the government’s fiscal management between different phases of the debt trajectory and business cycle. This study examines the sustainability of fiscal imbalance and public debt in Indonesia using the fiscal reaction function with annual fiscal data from 1976 to 2019. We incorporate asymmetry by decomposing the lagged debt ratio and cyclical output variables into their positive and negative partial sums. We find that Indonesia’s fiscal imbalance is on a path of weak sustainability as revenue grows more slowly than expenditure in the long run, with the bi-directional Granger causality between the two indicating fiscal synchronization. Long-run public debt sustainability is on a more sustainable path as primary surplus responds positively to the debt ratio. However, our asymmetric analysis suggests that this might be a false impression as primary balance decreases only in response to debt ratio decrease but increases less or fails to increase when the debt ratio rises, which is potentially dangerous.

scholarly journals Social development and public debt sustainability

2021 ◽  
Vol 14 (2) ◽  
pp. 79
Author(s):  
Chara Vavoura ◽  
Ioannis Vavouras
Keyword(s):  
Fiscal Policy ◽  
Social Development ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Debt Crisis ◽  
Necessary Condition ◽  
Debt Sustainability ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Policy Measures ◽  
Of Greece

The issue of public debt sustainability is of exceptional importance in the case of Greece. As a rule, the relevant analysis is limited to the examination of the fiscal policy measures reported to contribute to reducing public debt leaving out the investigation of the factors that caused the country’s debt crisis. The objective of the present paper is to explore the determinants of Greece’s debt crisis and the strategy required to address it. Our work highlights the issue of social development, which is found to be a necessary condition for ensuring the long run sustainability of the country’s public debt.

Tax aggressiveness and sustainable welfare: the roles of corruption and tax allocation inefficiency

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Astrid Rudyanto ◽  
Sidharta Utama ◽  
Dwi Martani ◽  
Desi Adhariani
Keyword(s):  
Public Choice ◽  
Design Methodology ◽  
Empirical Studies ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Tax Aggressiveness ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Sustainability Issue ◽  
Private Investments ◽  
Positive Effect ◽  
Practical Implications

Purpose This paper aims to investigate the roles of corruption and tax allocation inefficiency in moderating the effect of tax aggressiveness on sustainable welfare. Design/methodology/approach This research uses a fixed-effect multiple regression analysis for 55,438 firm-year observations covering 22 countries from 2007 to 2017. Findings For less (more) tax-aggressive observations, corruption and tax allocation inefficiency strengthen the negative (positive) effect of tax aggressiveness on sustainable welfare. The results are in line with public choice and functionalism theories that suggest that private investments can increase welfare when governments are dysfunctional. Practical implications This paper shows that the effect of tax aggressiveness on sustainable welfare depends on tax aggressiveness, corruption and tax allocation inefficiency. Social implications This paper implies that governments should reduce their corruption levels and increase tax allocation efficiency because private investments are ineffective in the long run. Originality/value Because of increasing awareness of sustainability issue, sustainable welfare is considered more relevant than traditional welfare. Hence, empirical studies on the effect of tax aggressiveness on sustainable welfare are crucial. This paper adds the literature by combining public choice and functionalism theories to investigate the moderating roles of corruption and tax allocation inefficiency in this issue.

Public debt, corruption and shadow economy in Africa: an empirical analysis

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Victor Owusu-Nantwi ◽  
Gloria Owusu-Nantwi
Keyword(s):  
Public Debt ◽  
Shadow Economy ◽  
African Countries ◽  
Correction Model ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Vector Error Correction ◽  
Vector Error ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Policies And Programs

PurposeThe purpose of this paper is to examine the effect of corruption and shadow economy on public debt in 51 African countries. In addition, the study explores the causal linkage between corruption, shadow economy and public debt.Design/methodology/approachThe study employs vector error correction model and Kao cointegration test to examine the long-run relationship between corruption, shadow economy and public debt in Africa.FindingsThe study finds a positive and statistically significant relationship between corruption and public debt. Further, the study reports a positive and statistically significant effect of shadow economy on public debt. In the short run, the study finds a unidirectional causal relationship between corruption, shadow economy and public debt with the direction of causality running from corruption and shadow economy to public debt, respectively.Practical implicationsThis study recommends that countries should pursue policies and programs that would provide resources to agencies tasked with the responsibility of fighting corruption. This would ensure that countries have effective institutions that curb vulnerabilities to corruption and reduce the size of the shadow economy and public debt.Originality/valueThis study contributes to the literature by showing how corruption and shadow economy affects public debts of African countries. To the best of the author's knowledge, this is the first attempt to examine this relationship in the context of Africa.

Do market size and financial development indicators affect human capital of select south Asian economies?

2019 ◽  
Vol 46 (7) ◽  
pp. 887-903 ◽  
Author(s):  
Narayan Sethi ◽  
Bikash Ranjan Mishra ◽  
Padmaja Bhujabal
Keyword(s):  
Growth Rate ◽  
Human Capital ◽  
Financial Development ◽  
South Asian ◽  
Market Size ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Development Indicators ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
The Impact

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to empirically investigate whether market size and its growth rate, along with financial development indicators, affect human capital in selected south Asian economies over the time period from 1984 to 2015. Design/methodology/approach The stationarity of the variables are checked by LLC, IPS, ADF and Phillips–Perron panel unit-root tests. Pedroni’s and Kao’s panel co-integration approaches are employed to examine the long-run relationship among the variables. To estimate the coefficients of co-integrating vectors, both PDOLS and FMOLS techniques are used. The short-term and long-run causalities are examined by panel granger causality. Findings From the empirical results, the authors found that both the market size and financial development play an important role in the development of human capital in the selected south Asian economies. It is evident that a large market size and faster degree of financial development in the selected countries result in better human capital formation. Originality/value There are a number of studies on the impact of financial development indicators on human capital and economic growth, but there is hardly any study that considers market size and its growth rate along with financial development indicators with human capital in the context of south Asian economies. The study fills this research gap.

scholarly journals Public debt and economic growth: contemporary evidence from a developing economy

2021 ◽  
Vol ahead-of-print (ahead-of-print) ◽  
Author(s):  
Sam Kris Hilton
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Causal Relationship ◽  
Granger Causality ◽  
Public Debt ◽  
Consumption Expenditure ◽  
Government Consumption ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run ◽  
Investment Spending

Purpose Considering the continuous rise in the public debt stock of developing countries (particularly Ghana) with the unstable economic growth rate for the past decades and the recent borrowing because of the impact of COVID 19, this paper aims to examine the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth over time. Design/methodology/approach The paper uses a dynamic multivariate autoregressive-distributed lag (ARDL)-based Granger-causality model to test the causal relationships between public debt and economic growth [gross domestic product (GDP)]. Annual time-series data that spanned 1978–2018 were sourced from the World Bank Development Indicator database and the IMF fiscal Affairs Department Database and WEO. Findings The results reveal that public debt has no causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but there is unidirectional Granger causality running from public debt to GDP in the long run. Again, investment spending has a negative bi-directional causal relationship with GDP in the short-run but they have a positive bi-directional causal relationship in the long run. Conversely, no short-run causal relationship exists between government consumption expenditure and GDP but long-run Granger causality runs from government consumption expenditure to GDP. Finally, public debt has a positive impact on the inflation rate in the short run. Practical implications The findings imply that government(s) must ensure high fiscal discipline to serve as a precursor for the effective and efficient use of recent borrowing, that is, the loans should be used for highly prioritized projects (preferably investment spending) that are well evaluated and self-sustained to add positively to the GDP. Originality/value This paper provides contemporary findings to augment extant literature on public debt and economic growth by using variables and empirical models, which prior studies could not sufficiently cover in a developing country perspective and affirms that public debt contributes to GDP only in the long run.

Persistence of profitability in top firms: does it vary across sectors?

2020 ◽  
Vol 30 (3) ◽  
pp. 269-287
Author(s):  
Parneet Kaur Bhangu
Keyword(s):  
Health Care ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Developed Countries ◽  
Economic Sectors ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Mean Values ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this paper is to analyze variations in the degree of persistence of profitability across diverse economic sectors and industry groups over the time period of 1990-2014 for a sample of top publically listed firms belonging to a selected set of developed and developing economies. Design/methodology/approach Degree of profit persistence has been estimated using Mueller’s (1990) autoregressive methodology. Firms were classified into different economic sectors and industry groups as per the Global Industry Classification Standard (GICS). The examination of inter-sectoral variations in profit persistence has been performed by comparing mean values of estimated short-run and long-run profit persistence parameter for all firms and between firms belonging to the developed and developing countries, respectively. Findings Firms in consumer staples, consumer discretionary and health care enjoy persistent above the norm returns, unlike firms in traditional industries, utilities and energy sectors, which are characterized by low persistence and below the norm returns. A high degree of profit persistence is observed in health care and idea- and technology-intensive sector in the developed countries; however, in the developing countries, profits persist higher in consumer discretionary and capital-intensive telecommunication services sectors. Originality/value The study provides a holistic examination of inter-sectoral variations in profit persistence of top firms in developed and developing economies using a uniform methodology and data set. It can serve as an aid to the competition commissions and anti-trust regulatory authorities to formulate policies for curtailing anti-competitive activities in certain sectors.

Do FDI Flows Lead to Environmental Degradation in Developing Economies? A Case Study of Select Asian Economies

2021 ◽  
pp. 097226292110354
Author(s):  
Rinku Manocha
Keyword(s):  
Developing Countries ◽  
Environmental Degradation ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Regression Equations ◽  
Fdi Inflows ◽  
Distributed Lag ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Asian Economies ◽  
Per Capita ◽  
Pollution Havens

Developing countries have an urge to boost economic development and they provide a supportive platform for production units with less stringent environment norms. Hence substantial numbers of manufacturing units are moving from developed economies to developing economies. Such a shift is leading to an upsurge in foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows in the developing economies. The study is an attempt to find relationship between FDI (inflows) and environmental degradation using a sample size of 14 developing Asian economies over the period of 1971–2019 using panel autoregressive distributed lag specifications. Study adopts Environmental Kuznet Curve (EKC) technique to validate the existence of pollution havens in the region. Two panel regression equations were formed: first equation covers the link between economic growth (income per capita) and environment by incorporating square of GDP per capita as one of the explanatory variable. The second equation examines the relation between investment and environmental degradation by accommodating square of FDI as one of the dependent variable. The long-run results for first equation validated the presence of EKC, supporting the presence of pollution havens in the region. Long-run results for non-linear FDI depicted positive and significant outcome (using pooled mean group) indicating negligence towards environment. The results indicated that developing countries are not working towards inviting investment flows which are more environment friendly.

Economic growth, inequality and trade in developing countries

2016 ◽  
Vol 15 (3) ◽  
pp. 240-253 ◽  
Author(s):  
Muhammad Tariq Majeed
Keyword(s):  
Economic Growth ◽  
Developing Countries ◽  
Open Economy ◽  
Developing Economies ◽  
Negative Relationship ◽  
Growth Effect ◽  
Data Set ◽  
Content Type ◽  
Long Run ◽  
Short Run

Purpose The purpose of this study is to analytically explore and empirically test the relationships between economic growth, inequality and trade using a panel data set of 65 developing economies from 1965 to 2010. Design/methodology/approach This study sets a theoretical framework to explain the growth-trade nexus differentials in the developing economies. The study uses different econometric methods such as General Method of Moments to address the relationship of trade with growth in the presence of high inequalities. Findings The study determines the positive effect of trade on growth both in the short-run and in the long-run. However, the growth effect of trade is substantially influenced by the domestic context in terms of the prevalence of high initial inequalities. The study identifies high initial inequalities in developing countries as the likely reason for a negative relationship between trade and economic growth. The trade-growth nexus is significantly negative for the unequal group but strongly significantly positive for the less unequal one. Practical implications Those developing economic which mange to ameliorate inequalities are in a better position to compete in an open economy. Originality/value The study contributes in the existing literature by answering the question why growth effects of trade are not definitely positive or negative. The findings of the studies may help the policy-makers of developing economies to take the advantage of increasing international trade.

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